In 1985, the Kansas City Royals won the World Series. In the 27 seasons since then, they've been to the playoffs exactly zero times. They've finished above .500 only six times in that span (and only once in the last twenty years). The franchise has been singularly awful for nearly three decades -- and there's a fairly obvious reason why.
Since that championship season in 1985, the Royals have walked at an above-average rate in just one season: 1989. In every one of those other 26 seasons, they finished in the bottom half of baseball in walks. Last year, they were dead last (as they were in 2008, and in 2001). This season, they rank 27th in the category. Since 1986, the Royals have the worst walk percentage (7.7%) among all major league franchises.
This team's extended streak of missing the playoffs happens to be accompanied by a similarly epic streak of plate discipline futility. It's not exactly a stretch to posit a relationship between those two things. If anyone ever doubted the value of walks in this sport, they should take a quick look at what the Kansas City Royals have been since Ronald Reagan's second term.
Why? Why are the Royals allergic to ball four? In a Thursday article on FoxSports.com, Royals general manager Dayton Moore offered an explanation: his team's home ballpark, Kauffman Stadium.
"We have the largest ballpark in terms of square footage of any ballpark in baseball," Moore says. "When pitchers come here, they have the mindset to use that park -- put the ball in play, throw strikes, attack the zone. There isn't the same fear factor of getting beat deep that you might have elsewhere. I think that plays a huge factor in that walk statistic."
On the surface, that seems logical. Not only for the reason Moore provides; also because Kauffman happens to be one of the only common denominators for the franchise between 1986 and 2013. What else could explain a trend that has spanned multiple decades, front offices, and rosters?
Dig a little deeper, though, and it immediately becomes clear that this theory is completely bogus. It's grounded in no facts whatsoever. In fact, it's so completely wrong that it encourages us to question whether or not Dayton Moore even has access to the Internet. Because: last year, the Royals drew 202 walks at home ...... and 202 walks on the road. Oops. The Royals were just as bad at walking away from home as they were at Kauffman. Accessing that information takes about three seconds in 2013.
Yet that's not all. In 2011, the Royals actually drew more walks at home (235) than on the road (207). The same was true in 2009, when they drew 235 walks at home and 199 times on the road. In 2008, the totals were virtually equal (197 to 195). In 2006, they once again drew more walks at home (252 to 222). These are all pretty simple facts to look up.
Taking it one step further: since 1986, Royals hitters have walked 7.6% of the time when playing at home, which ranks dead last among all franchises. This would seem to support Dayton Moore's hypothesis. But over that same span, Royals hitters have actually walked at an even worse rate when on the road -- 7.0%. That also ranks dead last among all franchises. The Royals are terrible at walking no matter where they play, but they're slightly-less terrible at walking when they're in Kauffman. Which makes Dayton Moore's comments look even more wrong.
There is, of course, more. If Moore's theory was accurate, and Kauffman's spacious confines deflate walk totals, then Royals pitchers probably shouldn't be giving up very many walks. The stadium should be affecting hitters on both teams. But since 1986, Royals pitchers have actually walked hitters at an 8.6% rate when pitching at home. That's the 7th-highest such rate in baseball. So opposing hitters are certainly drawing walks against the Royals in Kauffman. Don't the stadium's dimensions affect those hitters, too?
One final counterpoint: if a large stadium suppresses walk rates the way Moore proposed, then the Oakland Athletics should have a similarly poor record with walks. Like Kansas City, Oakland also plays in a massive ballpark with endless tracts of foul territory. So how would Moore explain the fact that since 1986, the Athletics have the best walk percentage (9.8%) among all major league teams?
Basically, Dayton Moore's hypothesis flunks any kind of empirical testing. The Royals walk more in Kauffman than they do on the road. Opposing hitters draw a healthy dose of walks against the Royals in Kauffman. And the league's most successful walking team in the last three decades resides in a ballpark that's comparable in size to Kauffman. Strikes one, two, and three.
The stadium isn't the problem. The problem is the hitters playing inside of it. And Dayton Moore was the person responsible for acquiring those hitters. Moore drafted Mike Moustakas with the 2nd overall pick in 2007, and he has a .286 career OBP in the majors. Moore drafted Eric Hosmer with the 3rd overall pick in 2008, and he has a .322 career OBP in the majors. Moore traded for Alcides Escobar in the Zack Greinke deal, and he has a .303 career OBP in the majors. Moore's second basemen right now are Miguel Tejada and Chris Getz, who have probably walked a combined 20 times in their careers, roughly. Most damningly, Moore thinks the most walk-averse hitter in the league, Jeff Francoeur, is a valuable baseball player (he has a career .308 OBP). The Royals' problem is their personnel, and Dayton Moore's job is to manage the Royals' personnel, so the Royals' problem is Dayton Moore. Which is probably why Moore is getting ahead of the curve and trying to pin the blame on an inanimate building rather than accept responsibility himself. Moore can point his finger at Kauffman Stadium if he'd like, but if he wants to keep his job for a little while longer, he's going to need a better scapegoat. This one was rather flimsy to say the least.
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