Is Lance Berkman Going to the Hall of Fame?

It's easier to get elected to the Presidency of the United States of America than it is to get elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame as a first baseman. Since 1960, the baseball writers have only selected four first basemen for entry into Cooperstown:

Harmon Killebrew
Willie McCovey
Tony Perez
Eddie Murray

With the exception of Perez, who clearly doesn't belong in this conversation, these first basemen have one obvious thing in common: home runs. Killebrew, McCovey, and Murray all reached the 500-homer plateau. Frank Thomas, who hit 521, will likely join them in Cooperstown next year. The first basemen that the writers have rejected over the years -- Fred McGriff, Keith Hernandez, Jeff Bagwell (so far) -- all failed to reach that sacred number. Basically, if you're a first baseman who didn't hit 500 homers, you can't make the Hall of Fame unless your name is Tony Perez.

All of this bodes poorly for 37-year-old first baseman Lance Berkman. Not only has Berkman thus far failed to hit 500 homers -- he hasn't even hit 400. His career total of 365 is even lower than Tony Perez's. This simple fact essentially spells doom for Berkman's Hall of Fame chances right out of the gate.

This is unfortunate, because Berkman actually has a strong case for induction if you look past traditional counting statistics. As more advanced metrics proliferate through the game, Berkman's candidacy will undoubtedly
gain steam. One such statistic is OPS, which is quickly replacing cumulative career stats like home runs and RBIs as a key measure of a player's Hall of Fame worthiness. And it just so happens that Lance Berkman's career OPS of .947 ranks 22nd all-time. Not 22nd at first base -- 22nd among all hitters ever. He's in a dead heat with Mel Ott, and ahead of Ty Cobb, Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Edgar Martinez, and Hank Aaron, to name a few. That's some strong company.

Similarly, a player's career triple-slash line is also quickly becoming an important Hall of Fame criteria. And Berkman's triple-slash line is something to behold. As a career .295/.408/.539 hitter, he's just five batting-average points short of joining the elite group of .300/.400/.500 players, most of whom are also Hall of Famers (or headed there). Somewhat eerily, his triple-slash line is almost identical to that of a former teammate who also happens to be Cooperstown-worthy:

Lance Berkman: .295/.408/.539
Jeff Bagwell: .297/.408/.540

Bagwell was undoubtedly a better player than Berkman, and he played in 300 more games. But those career numbers are almost a perfect match, which bodes well for Berkman. Along that same line, here's how he stacks up against the four first basemen that the writers have inducted since 1960:

Berkman: .295/.408/.539

Harmon Killebrew: .256/.376/.509
Willie McCovey: .270/.374/.515
Tony Perez: .279/.341/.463 (why is he in the Hall of Fame, again?)
Eddie Murray: .287/.359/.476

Berkman beats all four of them in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Adjust their OPS totals for the league and park contexts in which each of them played, and Berkman still comes out looking like a Hall of Fame hitter:

McCovey: 147 OPS+
Berkman: 145 OPS+
Killebrew: 143 OPS+
Murray: 129 OPS+
Perez: 122 OPS+

Berkman was also incredibly consistent. In all of his full seasons, he only had one subpar year -- 2010, when he was battling injuries. His next-worst OPS was .896 in 2007, and in all other seasons he was above .900. He finished in the top five in MVP voting four times. His postseason OPS of .949 is virtually identical to his regular season total. He played in two World Series, and hit .410/.520/.564. There's no question that Berkman is a Hall of Fame-caliber hitter.

The problem is, as of today, he hasn't been a Hall of Fame-caliber hitter long enough to accumulate those all-important counting stats. He's only played in 12 full seasons, giving him fewer than 1,900 career games played. No modern first baseman has been inducted into the Hall with a total that low. As a result, Berkman's career totals are:

365 home runs
1900 hits
1231 RBIs

For a first baseman who played during the Steroid Era, those figures are nothing special. Comparatively, Eddie Murray played in 1,000 more games than Berkman did, and therefore hit 504 home runs, accumulated 3,255 hits, and knocked in 1,917 RBIs. Those numbers are the reasons why Murray was easily inducted into the Hall despite a career OPS of .836 -- over a hundred points lower than Berkman's. The baseball writers would much rather induct a player with a long, distinguished career like Murray over a player who put up vastly superior numbers in a shorter time period.

So in the end, like many of these non-clear-cut cases, Berkman's candidacy comes down to one's philosophical stance on the nature of a Hall of Famer. Is Cooperstown supposed to honor the player with 3,000 hits? Or the player with a .947 OPS? Can we make room for both?

For Lance Berkman, there's good news: he's still hitting. As the Texas Rangers' primary DH this season, he's put up a .372 OBP over 60 games. If he can squeeze a couple more seasons out of his balky knees, he could dramatically improve his Hall of Fame chances. What if, by the time he retires, he has surpassed 2,000 hits and 2,000 games played? What if he reaches 400 home runs? What if he gets close to 1,500 RBIs (which is about where Killebrew and McCovey are at)? In that scenario, he would augment his impressive triple-slash line by reaching some meaningful round numbers. And then we might have something. Lance Berkman is already a Hall of Fame hitter; hopefully he manages to put the finishing touches on a Hall of Fame career.