A week ago, MLB Network posed this intriguing question to two of its analysts: under their current contracts, which player would you rather have on your team -- Albert Pujols or Joe Mauer?
A year ago, you would've looked stupid just asking that question. Pujols, an all-time great hitter, had just signed a massive $240 million contract with the Angels; Mauer was coming off an injury-plagued season where he only played 82 games and hit three home runs. Pujols was the easy selection. Now, though? The choice might be equally obvious -- but with a different answer.
In fact, MLB Network's token "sabermetrics guy," Brian Kenny, had no trouble picking Mauer. Old-school traditionalist Harold Reynolds took Pujols without hesitation. And that disagreement perfectly encapsulates baseball's long-lasting bias towards perceived "run-producers."
Because Pujols racks up huge RBI totals, he gets labelled as a "run-producer," worthy of big bucks because of some innate ability to drive in runs. Because Mauer has never had a 100-RBI season, he doesn't get that special badge. He's just a good hitter who walks a lot -- not the guy you want with runners in scoring position. You need a proven "run-producer" in that situation.
Obviously, this is bogus. The primary goal of a baseball hitter is to not make outs. Joe Mauer is exceptionally good at not making outs. In fact, just last year, he was the best player in the American League at not making outs. His .416 on-base percentage led the league, beating out the guy who won the Triple Crown, and would have led all of baseball if not for The Walking Machine Known As Joey Votto.
In the past, Albert Pujols was even better than Mauer at not making outs (.414 career OBP compared to .405 for Mauer). But in 2011, his OBP was .366. In 2012, it dropped again to .343. Again: Mauer was at .416 last year, and has been above .400 in three of the past four years. And that's just one of the many reasons why I'd rather have Mauer over Pujols for the remainder of their contracts. Mauer is three years younger. Mauer can still catch, while Pujols is relegated to first base or DH. Pujols once had the durability advantage, but has dealt with a rash of injuries recently, including a nasty case of plantar fasciitis that has him limping around the baseball diamond like a beached whale at the moment. Pujols' other advantage, his power, has declined for three straight years. And most importantly, Pujols is under contract for the next NINE years, until he's 41 years old, for a grand total of $228 million. Mauer is under contract for the next six years, until he's 35 years old, for a total of $138 million.
So would you rather have the older, declining, injured player whose power and on-base percentage have taken an alarming dive, or the younger, less expensive player with elite on-base skills who can still do some catching? Oh -- and you have to pay the first guy $30 million when he turns 41 years old.
Harold Reynolds, of course, still wants Pujols. Because, you know, he's a "run-producer." Here's the justification he offered:
"But when you're paying that kind of money, the return is power. That's how you get that money. And that's where Joe's lacked at. Would you give Wade Boggs that money? No. Would you give Tony Gwynn that money? Rod Carew? They wouldn't get that money."
Boggs, Gwynn, Carew. They weren't "run-producers" or RBI guys. They were just Hall of Famers. Lame.
His next argument, which is by far the most entertaining:
"Now you're knocking Albert a little bit, but he also can DH ... "
Oh, Pujols can DH! What a gifted, talented human being! He can probably hit anywhere in the order, too!
" ... he's only missed eight games so far in this span of almost two years now, he's been in this contract ... "
First of all, it hasn't been "almost two years," it's been "one year and like three weeks." Secondly, Mauer only missed 15 games last year. Because he also played the most challenging defensive position in baseball.
Brian Kenny then admitted that Pujols has the power edge, but notes that in five of the last seven years, Mauer has finished within the top three in on-base percentage in the American League (and led the league last year).
Reynolds was incredulous:
"Leads the league in on-base? Come on, Brian. Seriously? He's got to drive in some runs."
Brilliant. Mauer, your .416 OBP is total crap because you only had 85 RBIs. Hey, Harold: HE PLAYED FOR THE MINNESOTA TWINS. They're all sorts of awful. The two guys hitting in front of Mauer last year (who should be the Twins' best on-base guys) were Denard Span and Ben Revere. Their OBPs were .342 and .333. Who was hitting ahead of Pujols? Oh yeah -- MIKE TROUT.
On a related note: right now, Brandon Phillips has the second-most RBIs in baseball. But Phillips isn't a "run-producer" or even an elite hitter. Why so many RBIs? Because two of the players hitting ahead of him in the Reds lineup are Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto, who both currently have on-base percentages over .500. FIVE HUNDRED. Phillips isn't naturally good at accumulating RBIs; he's just always hitting with men on base. RBIs are a function of opportunity. It shouldn't be too surprising that Pujols had 20 more RBIs than Mauer when one of them was in a lineup with Mike Trout and the other was in a lineup with Denard Span and Ben Revere.
Reynolds continued by trying to discredit Mauer's positional flexibility:
"Out of the 242 games so far, he's caught 136. You can't say that's catcher. He's been DH-ing a lot."
Hilarious use of the DH argument. With Pujols: "He's so awesome, he can even DH!" With Mauer, it's a negative: "He only played HALF his games at catcher -- he's just a DH!"
No, Mauer isn't a full-time catcher anymore, but he's played that position in over half of his games over the past two years. That's extremely valuable.
When Brian Kenny accused Reynolds of undervaluing on-base percentage, he pretty much lost it again:
"It's undervalued if you're scoring runs. Other than that, big deal, I'm gonna walk Joe Mauer."
This logic is bizarre. "It's undervalued if you're scoring runs." But ... Mauer does score runs. He finished second in runs on the Twins despite their terribleness. "I'm gonna walk Joe Mauer." Okay, you do that, but I can't condone freely giving Mauer a 1.000 OBP as a good baseball strategy. Pretty sure he'd score even more runs if you did that.
Harold Reynolds analyzes baseball in individual terms. If Pujols has more RBIs than Mauer, Pujols is the better player. If Mauer isn't scoring runs, his on-base skills aren't valuable. For whatever reason, he can't seem to understand the differences in context between the Angels lineup and the Twins lineup. Because of that mistake, he'd be willing to pay a declining power hitter $228 million until he turns 41 rather than pay an elite on-base guy $138 million until he turns 35. Okay then.
As a final note: for his career, Mauer has hit .343/.460/.497 in 1,300 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. If that isn't worthy of "run-producer" status, then what is?
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