The Big Red Mistake

Since his defection from Cuba more than three years ago, Cincinnati Reds left-hander Aroldis Chapman has done nothing but strike guys out. Despite his relatively young age (25) and lack of minor league seasoning (just over 100 innings), Chapman has quickly harnessed that skill to become a dominant major league relief pitcher. His career strikeout rate is 14.1 per nine innings, the third-highest ever by any pitcher who's thrown at least as many innings as Chapman has (135). From 2011 to 2012, he cut his walk rate from 7.4 per nine innings to just 2.9 while simultaneously increasing his strikeout rate up to a ridiculous 15.3. The result was a 1.51 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and 38 saves while taking over as the Reds' new closer. He owns the major league record for the fastest recorded pitch in history, at 105 miles per hour. He's as close to unhittable as it gets. And his incredible talents are being wasted in the bullpen.

Chapman was a starting pitcher in Cuba but has made exactly zero starts at the major league level. The Reds' rotation has been so strong these last few years that they've had the luxury to use Chapman as a weapon out of the bullpen. That strategy hid Chapman's major weakness -- control -- while getting him valuable major league experience. The plan was to transition him into the rotation once he had harnessed his arsenal and limited his walks. It certainly appears like he's done just that. Yet the Reds announced several days ago that he will again serve as their closer in 2013. 

It's become clear that Dusty Baker, the Reds' manager, feels strongly about keeping Chapman in the closer role for 2013 despite what his bosses might prefer. Some of his reasons are sound. Most are not. For instance, there's this one:

"There's a point that your No. 1 starter is worth more than your closer," Baker said. "But how do you know if he's your No. 1 or not?"

Well, Dusty ... you don't know because you refuse to try it.

There are lots of other arguments for keeping Chapman in the closer role. Some of them are even coherent. But none are good enough.

1. "He's more valuable as a closer!"

Not a chance. Even an average starting pitcher is more valuable than a closer and there's a good chance that Chapman would be a better-than-average starting pitcher. Right now, Chapman is being used to get three outs a few times a week, in games where his team is already winning. Guys who can do that grow on trees. But guys who can serve as solid starters? Those are far more valuable. Which is why Kyle Lohse got twice as much money this winter than Rafael Soriano.

2. "The Reds already have five starters!"

They do. They have four guys locked into the rotation. The weak link is Mike Leake, who put up a 4.58 ERA last year. Removing Leake from the rotation to accommodate Chapman isn't exactly a game-changing loss. Anyway. the Reds got insanely lucky last year in that none of their starting pitchers got hurt. At all. The odds of that happening once are stupendously low; the odds of it happening in two consecutive years are closer to nonexistent. One of their guys is going to get hurt. So even if Leake doesn't start the year in the rotation, chances are he'll be back in at some point when that inevitable injury strikes.

3. "Messing with his role could ruin him for good!"

This argument is motivated by the recent high-profile failures of certain pitchers who tried to convert from relieving to starting. Three come to mind immediately, though people tend to ignore the other circumstances surrounding their demises: Joba Chamberlain (actually hurt himself while dodging an errant throw from the catcher), Daniel Bard (never had the track record of success as a starter like Chapman does), and Neftali Feliz (had Tommy John surgery, which is now common for pitchers of all sizes and roles). It's easy to point and scream at the failures without acknowledging the differences between their situations and Chapman's. It's also easy to ignore the recent success stories of converted relievers, like C.J. Wilson or Chris Sale.

4. "He's too important to the bullpen!"
Actually, the bullpen would manage fine without him. The Reds committed $21 million to Jonathan Broxton in the offseason; he'd be a fine closer. Sean Marshall is one of the game's best setup men. And so on. The Reds have a remarkably deep bullpen that could easily withstand the loss of Chapman.

5. "There's no guarantee he'll even be a good starting pitcher!"

This argument is also known as Dusty Baker's Circular Logic. "We won't try him as a starter because we don't know if he'll be any good, and we don't know if he'll be any good because we won't try him as a starter." First of all -- if Chapman's control is too shoddy for starting, then the Reds can always transfer him back to the bullpen. At least then they'll know and can move on without being bothered anymore. Secondly, and most importantly ... what if this guy is really good? Then the Reds will have struck gold. And there's at least one reason to believe in that potential: the existence of a similar pitcher out there who has a lot in common with Chapman and ended up being wildly successful. Like Chapman, this pitcher was also a left-hander who threw really hard and struck out gobs of batters but struggled through command issues early on. Through the age of 28, his career walk rate was an unacceptable 5.7 per nine innings and unsurprisingly his ERA was pushing 4.00. Then, from age 29 until retirement, he threw over 3,000 innings with an ERA of 3.13, a walk rate of just 2.7, and a strikeout rate of 11.0, winning five Cy Young Awards along the way. That pitcher was Randy Johnson. What if someone along the way -- like, say, Dusty Baker -- had stuck Randy Johnson in the bullpen and kept him there for good? Baseball would have been robbed of one of its greatest pitching careers. But hey, I'm sure the Big Unit would've made a heck of a closer. And Curt Schilling could've been a dynamite setup man, too.

Okay, to be fair, Aroldis Chapman almost certainly isn't Randy Johnson. But there's also a very small chance that he might be. It's worth the risk to find out. And the Reds would be foolish not to.