Previewing the Conference Tournaments

THE MOUNTAIN WEST
Why It Matters: The conference with the most parity of any league in the country is guaranteed to have an entertaining tournament. The only bubble team is Boise State, which strengthened its NCAA Tournament case by beating San Diego State in the regular season finale ... and now the two teams are matched up again in the quarterfinal. A second Boise State win over SDSU should be enough to get the Broncos into the field. The stakes are high at the top, too. If New Mexico claims the championship, a #2 seed becomes a likelihood. And UNLV, which boasts enticing talent but continues to underperform, has a lot to prove. If the Rebels can't make noise in this tournament -- which is on their home court in Las Vegas -- it would become impossible to trust them in March Madness.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Of all the teams in this conference, 2-seed Colorado State is sneakily underrated. The Rams are the most-experienced and best-rebounding team in the country. Seeing them in a neutral-court final against New Mexico would reveal their true potential.
Who Wins: New Mexico, the 1-seed.

THE ATLANTIC 10
Why It Matters: Last year, this tournament was chaotic and St. Bonaventure's stole a tournament bid out of nowhere. This year, the league has four guaranteed tournament teams, two more fighting for spots on the bubble, and a bunch of potential spoilers. Things will get crazy. La Salle is right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament and can stamp its ticket by "upsetting" Butler (the five seed) in the quarterfinals; it just so happens that the Explorers have already pulled off that feat once this season. On the other half of the bracket, Xavier is far more desperate, needing to beat Saint Joseph's and then VCU just to keep itself in consideration for a bid. If there's a favorite in all of this, it's the balanced-and-defensively-sound Saint Louis Billikens, who could be as high as a #4 seed if they emerge from this event victorious. But their path is so tricky that their semifinal comes against the winner of La Salle/Butler. To say nothing of a possible championship game against perhaps VCU or Temple. The only predictable thing about the Atlantic 10 Tournament is that it's going to be utterly unpredictable.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Who wouldn't want to see a Butler/VCU championship game? The two of them only had one regular season matchup and it was a dud, a VCU blowout win. With Butler possibly leaving the A-10 for the new Big East, these rising programs may not play again for a long time. Rematch, please.
Who Wins: Saint Louis, the 1-seed.

THE SEC
Why It Matters: A ton of bubble intrigue here, starting with, of course, Kentucky. The Wildcats somehow ended up with the 2-seed in this tournament (good god, the SEC was unspeakably bad) so there's an opportunity to advance to the finals -- which should be enough to earn them an at-large berth. They just have to win two games to get there: one over the Arkansas/Vanderbilt winner, and one over Ole Miss or Missouri. Very doable. The road is tougher for fellow bubble-dweller Tennessee. The Volunteers have to beat the winner of Mississippi State/South Carolina and then topple Alabama just to get a semifinal matchup with the massive tourney favorite, Florida. But they're scorching hot right now and a deep run wouldn't be crazy at all.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Any game featuring two desperate bubble teams battling to the death is a treat, which is why a possible Tennessee-Alabama quarterfinal or a Kentucky-Ole Miss semifinal would be enticing.
Who Wins: Florida, the 1-seed.

THE PAC 12
Why It Matters; Maybe this tournament will give the conference some semblance of order. Probably not, though. If there's a bubble team here, it's Colorado, which can't afford to suffer a bad loss to Oregon State in the opening round. Oregon needs to show something, anything, after going 5-5 in its final 10 games. The best NCAA Tournament seed from this league is going to belong to Arizona, but the Wildcats still probably can't improve beyond a #4 seed even if they win this tourney. UCLA is technically the favorite but there are at least six teams that could stumble into the championship. What a jumbled mess this is.
Potential Juicy Matchups: All of them, or none of them, depending on your perspective.
Who Wins: [puts names into hat, shuffles, draws from them blindly] UCLA, the 1-seed.

THE BIG 12
Why It Matters: Kansas would join the conversation for a #1 seed by winning this thing. But most of the drama lies with this league's two true bubble teams. Iowa State drew a solid Oklahoma team in the first round, and Baylor desperately needs a win over Oklahoma State to keep its tournament hopes alive. For those two teams, their first-round contests basically amount to NCAA Tournament play-in games.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Iowa State lost to Kansas twice this season and both were heartbreakers -- one because of a last-second three-pointer by Ben McLemore, and the other because of a Herculean effort by Elijah Johnson. If the Cyclones get another shot at Kansas in the semifinals, the Jayhawks might not get lucky three times in a row.
Who Wins: Oklahoma State, the 3-seed.

THE ACC
Why It Matters: Virginia is the team with the most to gain here. The ACC's 4-seed sits squarely on the bubble, awaiting the victor of the first-round game between N.C. State and Virginia Tech. A win (especially one over N.C. State) that advances them to the semifinals against Miami could be enough to get the Cavaliers an at-large berth. Meanwhile, Maryland will almost certainly end up in the NIT without a second upset of Duke in the quarterfinals. At the top of the league, winning the tourney would mean a guaranteed #1 seed for Duke (perhaps even the #1 overall position) and a #2 seed for Miami.
Potential Juicy Matchups: The third, tie-breaking game between Duke and Miami in the finals is what the people want. Everyone, please cooperate to ensure this happens.
Who Wins: Duke, the 2-seed.

THE BIG EAST
Why It Matters: The stakes are highest for the top two teams: either Louisville or Georgetown would put itself in prime position for a #1 seed by winning the last-ever Big East Tournament. The only true bubble team is Villanova, which will likely make the March Madness field regardless -- but avoiding a weird loss to St. John's in the first round would probably be advisable. Everybody else is playing to improve their seeding.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Given Villanova's reputation as a giant-slayer, a second-round duel with Louisville would be compelling. But what everyone wants to see is a championship-game rematch of Louisville and Georgetown, clearly the two best teams in the league.
Who Wins: Louisville, the 2-seed.

THE BIG TEN
Why It Matters: Ironically, this tournament might not mean much for Indiana, which seemingly has a #1 seed locked up already. It's Michigan and Michigan State that have the most to gain. Either team could get bumped up to the top seed line by winning this tournament. If Ohio State wins it, a #2 seed wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois are playing to regain lost momentum heading into the NCAAs. And if Iowa wants to make one last-ditch effort at getting an unlikely at-large berth, beating Northwestern and Michigan State in the first two rounds are minimum requirements.
Potential Juicy Matchups: It would be great to see a rematch of Wisconsin-Indiana in the semifinals after the Badgers upset the Hoosiers in their own building way back in January (the teams only played once). Wisconsin would have to get past Michigan in the quarterfinals, though. Yes, Michigan-Wisconsin is a quarterfinal matchup in this league. That could easily end up being an Elite Eight game and nobody would blink an eye.
Who Wins: Indiana, the 1-seed.