Some Numbers, and the Florida Gators

Using "points per game" to evaluate a basketball team is almost as bad as judging a hitter by his RBI total.

For example, North Carolina is currently the seventh-highest scoring offense in college basketball, at 79.1 points per game. Wisconsin only scores 66.9 per game, which ranks 194th in the country. But Wisconsin has the better offense.

That's because North Carolina plays at one of the fastest paces in the country. They get more possessions in a game -- sometimes up to 80 or 90 -- so they just get more opportunities to score points. It's the same reason why cleanup hitters have more RBIs than leadoff hitters: opportunity, not quality of performance. Meanwhile, Wisconsin plays at a much slower tempo. The Badgers might only get 50 or 60 possessions in a game. Their 66.9 scoring average is more impressive than North Carolina's 79.1, because Wisconsin is the more efficient team per possession. That's what really counts.

Ken Pomeroy tracks per possession efficiency numbers at kenpom.com. You can look it up and find that Wisconsin scores 109.7 points per 100 possessions, the 32nd-best mark in the country; North Carolina is at 108.3, good for 46th. Defensive efficiency is available in the same way. It's an incredibly useful resource.

Pomeroy also uses a team's two efficiency ratings to calculate its expected winning percentage (thanks to an old friend, the Pythagorean theorem). That gives us a nice ranking of every team in the country from 1 to 345 based on overall efficiency.

Does the system work? Or, rather -- does it have predictive value? Well, the top four teams last year according to their Pythagorean winning percentages were Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Kansas. That group includes three of the Final Four teams and both of the participants in the National Championship Game. All of the teams that reached the Elite Eight were within Pomeroy's top 17. It's not perfect, because nothing can be, but the system does offer some accurate insight into the overall quality of teams that traditional numbers can't.

Looking back at the last ten NCAA Tournament champions, and where each of them ranked in Pomeroy's ratings, is rather enlightening:

Year	Champion	Offensive Eff.	Defensive Eff.	Overall Ranking
2003	Syracuse Orange	11th	19th	7th
2004	Connecticut Huskies	4th	5th	2nd
2005	North Carolina Tar Heels	1st	5th	1st
2006	Florida Gators	2nd	5th	1st
2007	Florida Gators	1st	12th	2nd
2008	Kansas Jayhawks	2nd	1st	1st
2009	North Carolina Tar heels	1st	16th	1st
2010	Duke Blue Devils	1st	4th	1st
2011	Connecticut Huskies	16th	14th	10th
2012	Kentucky Wildcats	2nd	9th	1st

What can we learn from those numbers, and apply to 2013?

• First of all, every one of those ten champions ranked within the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Who has met those qualifications so far this year? Just eight teams: Florida, Indiana, Louisville, Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, Ohio State, and, oddly, Pittsburgh. Noticeably absent? Michigan, currently the #1 team in the country. The Wolverines have the nation's most efficient offense but the 31st-ranked defense. That's something worth keeping an eye on.
• Narrowing the criteria a bit: eight of the ten champions finished the season as either the best or second-best overall team in the country. Who occupies those top two spots this year? Currently, Florida and Indiana.
• Getting even pickier: half of the ten champions ranked within the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That's a rare achievement. Not even last year's Kentucky squad pulled that off. But in 2013, one team is on pace to accomplish the feat: the Florida Gators.

The Gators have the second-most efficient offense in the country, and the most efficient defense in the country. Yes, that's a rather lethal combination. Compare those rankings to the ones in that chart above and you'll find that a lot teams that weren't as good as the 2013 Gators have won a national championship before. Unsurprisingly, Florida is currently 7-0 in the SEC. Even that record doesn't accurately reflect how good the team has been. The scores of those seven games: 77-44, 74-52, 68-47, 83-52, 64-47, 82-47, and 75-36. Granted, the SEC isn't very good. But you can only ask the Gators to win the games on their schedule, and they've dominated the games on their schedule.

At 9 PM on Saturday night, #1 Michigan will face #3 Indiana in the biggest game of the season. Those two teams have future NBA players and they're on TV all the time and people talk about them a lot. As it gets underway, one of the broadcasters will invariably hype it up by calling it a matchup of the two best teams in the country. I hope the Florida Gators will be watching, because I bet they'd have something to say about that.