Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Do the Phillies Know Who the Good Baseball Players Are?

This offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies stood at a crossroads. Their expensive and aging roster was only good for 81 wins and a third-place finish in 2012. The team's general manager, Ruben Amaro, had to decide whether to make another run at a championship with his existing core, or begin to rebuild with younger players. He chose the first course of action. In his mind, the Phillies are still good enough that a few smart additions could mean a World Series title. And he's right, because any team that has a pitching staff led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels is automatically in the mix. He just needed to make a few upgrades on offense to give this Phillies core one last chance at a title before Chase Utley's knees implode.

Amaro sought out players who could fill his four biggest needs on offense: right field, center field, third base, and middle-infield depth. The four players he ended up acquiring -- the players who are supposed to bolster Philadelphia's roster for a championship run -- are so deeply flawed that they have me questioning whether Ruben Amaro knows what a good baseball player looks like.

1. Michael Young, Third Baseman
Ah, Michael Young. He was quite an excellent player once. This is no longer the case. Actually, Young was probably the worst everyday player in baseball last year. He came to the plate 651 times last year and only drew 33 walks (by comparison, he grounded into 26 double plays). That comes out to a .312 on-base percentage. His power numbers were nonexistent: a .370 slugging percentage with just eight homers. He's technically a third baseman, but being virtually immobile, he isn't any good at that either, which is why his Texas Rangers stuck him at DH most of last year. However, the Philadelphia Phillies play in the National League, where playing Young at DH would be entirely illegal. If Young plays the field every day and continues to rack up almost as many double plays as walks, he could very well repeat as the Worst Player in Baseball.
Viable Alternatives: Kevin Youkilis, Jeff Keppinger, a scarecrow

2. Delmon Young, "Right Fielder"
But if someone is going to challenge Michael for that title, it's going to be his long-lost brother Delmon. Now, Delmon's power numbers were better than Michael's last year: 18 homers and a .411 slugging percentage. But remarkably, his plate discipline was somehow even worse. He swung more often than any other player in baseball (60% of the time), even more than Josh Hamilton. He only walked 20 times in 608 plate appearances -- while grounding into 20 double plays. He drew ball four 3.3% of the time, which was the second-worst walk rate in all of baseball, behind only Alexei Ramirez. At least Ramirez plays good defense.

"But perhaps Delmon Young plays good defense too," one might respond. One clearly has not ever seen Delmon Young. This is a man whose contract with the Phillies includes weight clauses. Weight clauses. Meaning that six times during the season, Young gets on a scale and can earn an additional $100,000 from the team each time he measures in under 230 pounds. No, Delmon Young can't play much defense, which was okay when he could DH for the Tigers in the American League. Like Michael, Delmon can do no such thing for the National League Phillies. Which means Delmon will be "running down" fly balls in right field all year, which could do irreparable damage to Roy Halladay's career ERA.

The icing on the cake: last season, Young was involved in a public altercation, described in this paragraph by the New York Times:

"According to the police, a heavily intoxicated Young yelled anti-Semitic slurs and attacked a group of tourists outside the New York Hilton, the Tigers’ team hotel, about 2:30 a.m. Friday. According to a police report, Young began yelling the epithets at a group of four tourists who were giving money to a panhandler who was wearing a skullcap and a Star of David pendant around his neck, and the encounter became physical."

So, he's terrible at baseball, but at least he's an anti-Semite.
Viable Alternatives: Nick Swisher, Josh Hamilton, Torii Hunter, Scott Hairston, Domonic Brown

3. Ben Revere, Center Fielder
It doesn't seem fair to include Revere in the same breath as Michael and Delmon Young. Because at least Revere can do two things that the Youngs can't: play defense and run fast. Revere is an excellent defensive center-fielder and he stole 40 bases last year. Unfortunately, at the plate, Revere is completely impotent. Sure, he hit .294 last year. But those hits were almost all singles, because Ben Revere cannot hit for power. Literally -- he's been to the plate over a thousand times in his major league career and he has yet to hit one home run. Of his 275 career hits, only 33 went for extra bases. His career slugging percentage is .323. The sad part? That's still higher than his career on-base percentage: .319.

Like both Youngs, Revere doesn't draw walks. He did so only 29 times last year. So without any plate discipline, or any power, Revere's offensive value relies completely on his legs. He'll swing at the first good pitch he sees and try to beat out an infield single. That's a nearly useless offensive player. At the very least, he'll play a good center field. He'll need to, what with The Weight Clause manning right field.
Viable Alternatives: Michael Bourn, Denard Span

4. Yuniesky Betancourt, Shortstop
Betancourt only signed a minor league deal, so he might not make the Phillies roster. But given the combined age of Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins (68) and their combined number of healthy knees (??), it's safe to bet on Betancourt making more than a few appearances at shortstop and second base.

He's played over 1,000 career games, and he's never not been useless. His career on-base percentage is an unsightly .290. Heck, Michael Jordan's minor league OBP was .289. He's drawn 129 walks -- since 2005. He, too, doesn't hit for power (.392 slugging percentage) and he's not even a good defender. Speed? Well, he does have 30 stolen bases in his career ... and he's also been caught 30 times. Betancourt's Wins Above Replacement totals for the last six years look like this: -1.2, -0.8, -1.3, -1.5, -0.8, -0.4. Yes, those are minus signs in front of all those numbers. He's been worth negative value in each of the last six seasons.
Viable Alternatives: Me, You

Add up the total WAR that all four of these players contributed in 2012 and you get -2.4. Revere was the only one with positive value. Add up the total number of times that these players walked in 2012, and you get 91. Carlos Pena walked 87 times last year, by himself, and the Astros signed him for less than what the Phillies are paying Michael Young. When asked on the radio about his team's aversion to walks, Ruben Amaro replied,

"I don't care about walks, I care about production."

I don't care about walks, I care about production. If this is what Amaro really believes, then the Phillies are in serious trouble. Failing to understand that walks are a form of production is crazy. Maybe Amaro is waging his own mini-war on Moneyball philosophy. If so, he's losing. The three teams with the highest on-base percentage last year were the Cardinals, Yankees, and Tigers -- in other words, three of the last four teams standing in the playoffs. The Phillies finished just 17th in OBP and ended up in third place.

Apparently, Ruben Amaro didn't settle on these four players because there were no other alternatives (which, by the way, is false). He actually sought them out because he thinks they are good at baseball. He sees players not in terms of the value they provide, but in terms of broad labels. He looks at Michael Young and sees "Hardened, Grizzled Veteran." Delmon Young: "Power Bat With Playoff Experience." Ben Revere: "Pesky, Gritty Glue Guy." Yuniesky Betancourt: "Savvy Middle Infielder."

The Phillies needed an infusion of skilled offensive players to help get them back to the World Series. Instead, they got Michael Young, Delmon Young, Ben Revere, and Yuniesky Betancourt. The Phillies needed a shot in the arm. They got a punch in the face.

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