An Unexpected Number One Seed

Pop quiz -- which of these two mystery teams has the better NCAA Tournament resumé?

	RPI ranking	Nonconference strength of schedule ranking	Record in non-home games	Record vs. top-100 RPI teams	Losses
Team A (25-2)	12th	21st	13-1	10-2	Butler, Illinois
Team B (24-3)	9th	73rd	8-2	10-3	Butler, Illinois, Wisconsin

They have remarkably similar profiles. Based on this information alone, Team A might be given the nod over Team B thanks to its superior nonconference schedule and better road record.

Team A is Gonzaga. Team B is Indiana.

That's not to say Gonzaga has a better resumé than Indiana. What that chart above doesn't take into account is conference affiliation. Indiana plays in the Big Ten, which according to RPI is the best conference in the country. Gonzaga makes its home in the significantly-weaker West Coast Conference, which ranks 10th in RPI and only has one other team with even an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament (Saint Mary's). It's fair to question what the Zags' record would be if they played in Indiana's conference. "Worse" would be a safe assumption, especially considering one of their two losses came at home against Illinois, which isn't even one of the four best teams in the Big Ten.

But even when one factors in those conference inequities, the Zags are still enjoying an undeniably dominant season despite never appearing on anyone's TV guide. Thanks to a month-long winning streak, they've steadily risen in the AP Poll up to #3 in the country this week. They're 25-2 overall with a perfect 12-0 record in the West Coast Conference. Last week, they passed the most challenging test remaining on their schedule by winning at Saint Mary's. The Zags are now six more wins away from an undefeated WCC season, a conference tournament championship, and a final record of 31-2. If they do get those six wins (and there's an excellent chance they do), then the Selection Committee would have to seriously consider awarding this team one of the precious number-one seeds in the NCAA Tournament even though they've played most of the season in virtual anonymity. Would Gonzaga deserve that designation?

A lot of people would probably be opposed to it, mostly because of the inferior competition in the WCC. But that's where the Zags' nonconference record comes into play. They faced seven teams that are likely headed to the NCAA Tournament, and beat five of them. Those wins came against Oklahoma State (road), Oklahoma (neutral), Kansas State (neutral), Davidson (neutral), and Baylor (home). They came within a botched inbounds pass of winning at Butler and their only other defeat was against Illinois. It's not like those are bad losses; both of those teams have also beaten Indiana.

Gonzaga ended up with three wins against teams ranked in the top 25 in RPI. That's right in line with the other candidates for the top seeds: Miami, Duke, Michigan, Michigan State, and Arizona all have three, as well. Florida, Louisville, and Syracuse actually have fewer than three. While the Zags' average opponent is very likely worse than the average opponent of these other teams, they still have proven beyond a shade of doubt that they can compete with, and beat, upper-level competition. That's what matters most.

Besides -- the Zags do pass the all-important eye test. They're actually one of the more entertaining teams in the country to watch, so it's a shame their games don't tip off until the East Coast is fast asleep. It would be an injustice if Kelly Olynyk isn't named a First-Team All-American; the seven-foot junior is the most efficient player in the sport, averaging 18 points per game on 65% shooting. He's joined in the frontcourt by senior Elias Harris, who's in his fourth consecutive year of averaging double-digit points per game for Gonzaga. David Stockton and Kevin Pangos form an excellent point guard platoon, with Stockton providing the highlight-reel passes and Pangos shooting over 43% from three-point range. And Coach Mark Few's rotation often goes ten deep thanks to a flexible roster filled with role players and glue guys. He's got so many options that Przemek Karnowski, a seven-foot-one Polish freshman who may end up in the NBA, barely gets any minutes. The result of all this is the fourth-most efficient offense in the country (and what could've been the nation's longest winning streak had Stockton and Olynyk connected on one stupid inbounds pass).

Yes, they play in a mediocre conference, and we should obviously take their gaudy record with a grain of salt. But the reality is that Gonzaga has assembled an impeccable body of work, complete with several impressive wins, aggressive nonconference scheduling, plenty of success away from home, and domination of the inferior competition within the WCC. Watch them play and it's obvious that this isn't a fluke. A number one seed for Gonzaga? It sounds far-fetched. It's also six games away from becoming a reality.