Believe it or not, Selection Sunday is only three weeks away, and chances for borderline tournament teams to improve their resumés are quickly running out. While this weekend features a few marquee matchups like Georgetown-Syracuse and Michigan State-Ohio State, it also brings us five critical games between bubble teams on the edge of tournament consideration.
N.C. STATE at NORTH CAROLINA
If the tournament began tomorrow, would North Carolina be in the field? It could go either way. The Tar Heels only have one win over a likely NCAA Tournament team, UNLV, and that was back in 2012. They've only got two more chances for statement wins before the ACC Tournament, and this is one of them. Fortunately, their timing is pretty good, because a new four-guard lineup has them playing their best basketball of the season. And what about N.C. State? If the Wolfpack hadn't opened the season as the much-hyped ACC favorite, would they be on the bubble too? Beating Duke and North Carolina was nice, but Connecticut is their only other notable victory and they're 2-4 on the road. Sweeping the Tar Heels would go a long way towards making sure the Wolfpack aren't surprised by a lower-than-expected seed on Selection Sunday. I'd still take UNC in this one, though.
BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA
The Big 12 has quietly been a bit of an unpredictable mess this year. Baylor, just a year after being a #3-seed, has already lost ten games, including five of seven. Oklahoma beat Kansas when the Jayhawks were in their funk but didn't do enough in their nonconference schedule to be considered a safe bet for the tournament yet. These two teams, along with Iowa State, comprise the Big 12 bubble, and it looks like only two of the three will win an at-large bid. Oklahoma should win this game, which would make them 2-0 against the Bears this season -- therefore giving them a crucial unspoken tiebreaker over Baylor for the Selection Committee's purposes.
MISSOURI at KENTUCKY
Kentucky's season will be decided in this game. Since losing Nerlens Noel for the season, the Wildcats were embarrassed at Tennessee and squeaked past Vanderbilt at home. Not exactly inspiring. They need to prove they're still a tournament team without Noel, and there just aren't many opportunities to do that in this pathetic SEC. Their only other shot comes against Florida and there's little chance of an upset there. It's Beat Missouri Or Bust. And it's not like this game is meaningless for Mizzou. The Tigers beat Florida last week, virtually securing their tournament bid, but they're a meager 1-6 in road games. Perhaps no other team has such a huge disparity between how well they play at home and how bad they look on the road, except maybe the regular-season version of the Baltimore Ravens. A win at Rupp Arena, even against this so-so Kentucky squad, would really help their image. I'd take Missouri here ... even the Ravens figured it out eventually.
#17 MARQUETTE at VILLANOVA
Marquette is a lock for the tournament; Villanova has one of the most interesting cases out there. The Wildcats are one of those teams with multiple personalities -- they beat Syracuse and Louisville in back-to-back games, but they've lost to, among others, Providence (twice!), Alabama (from the terrible, awful SEC!), and Columbia (the Ivy League one! At home!). Inconsistency, playing to the level of the competition -- who knows what it is. It's bizarre. Marquette has been really impressive this year, so if the pattern holds, Villanova will probably win. Logically, then, I'll pick Marquette.
CREIGHTON at SAINT MARY'S
Saint Mary's needs this win more than any other team in the nation needs a win this weekend, including Kentucky. The Gaels have a nice 23-5 record but don't have a single eye-opening victory on their resumé. Using the eye test, they're probably a tournament-caliber team, like they were last year. There's just nothing to point to on their schedule that proves it. And they've already lost both of their games to Gonzaga, so unless they run the table in the conference tournament, this is their last shot to impress the Selection Committee. They're not making the tournament without a win here, and I think they'll get it. Desperation wins out.
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