Previewing Week 10

Last week's predictions: 12/14
Season tally: 88/132, 66%

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Would now be an okay time to mention that rookie Andrew Luck is on pace to throw for over 4,800 yards on the season? A feat accomplished by only seven other quarterbacks in history? No? Oh, you'd rather talk about Michael Vick's job security and Tim Tebow? Cool.
The pick: Colts on Thursday night.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-11)
Buffalo's C.J. Spiller is leading the NFL with 7.2 yards per carry. The Bills gave him six carries last week. Because apparently they thought Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the ball 38 times against the Texans was a superior game plan. In related news, the Bills shockingly failed to score a touchdown last week.
The pick: Patriots.

New York Giants (-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals
This just screams 'Bengals upset win.' The problem: the Bengals aren't that good. Ironically, I'd take Cincy if the Giants were at home.
The pick: Giants.

San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
"The Chargers are 4-4, and just a game out of first place!"
This is technically a true statement. But the Chargers only have four wins because they've played the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs (twice). They're also 26th in the league in total offense per game, which is even worse than the offense led by Jay Cutler. See, manipulating information is fun and easy.
The pick: Buccaneers.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are the anti-Chargers; they're a bit better than their 2-6 record suggests. Their last five games: win at Redskins, loss at Bears by one, loss vs Cowboys by five, loss vs Seahawks by four, loss at Falcons by two. That was a very tough stretch, and with a little luck Carolina could've escaped with some extra wins.
The pick: Actually picking the Panthers to win is a whole different ballgame. Broncos.

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (-6)
Here's what the Titans did in each of their first half possessions against the Bears last week: fumble, punt, blocked punt (Bears TD), punt, punt, interception (Bears TD), fumble, punt, fumble, field goal. Ouch.
The pick: Dolphins.

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
The Ravens, and especially Joe Flacco, have struggled for long stretches this season despite their solid record. But don't pick against them when they're at home. Fun thing to watch: Carson Palmer's passing attempts.With Darren McFadden likely out, Palmer could easily throw 50 or 60 times. It'll be good theater.
The pick: Ravens.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ New Orleans Saints
Has anyone even noticed that the Falcons are still undefeated at the season's halfway point?
The pick: Falcons.

Detroit Lions (-2) @ Minnesota Vikings
Three weeks ago, the pick would've been Minnesota. Since then, Vikings QB Christian Ponder has twice thrown for less than 70 yards in a game. That won't beat Matthew Stafford.
The pick: Lions.

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Two solid prediction rules intersect in this game: never pick against the Seahawks at home, and never pick the Jets.
The pick: Seahawks.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Feeling pressure to pick an upset, because it's been all chalk so far, but...the Cowboys do seem better than the Eagles right now. Both teams have underachieved; at least the Cowboys are underachieving against good teams.
The pick: Cowboys.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
We should all stop for a moment and recognize the awesomeness that is the 49ers' offensive line. The team averages 5.6 yards per rushing attempt (tops in the NFL) and enabled Alex Bleeping Smith to complete 18 of his 19 passes last Monday night, almost setting the record for single-game completion percentage.
The pick: 49ers.

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears (-1)
Finally, good upset potential! The Bears have gotten Herculean efforts from their defense every week to pull out victories, but A) that seems pretty unsustainable and B) it might not work against Houston's conservative offense. Which means Jay Cutler will need to win the game for Chicago, and, well...
The pick: Texans.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5)
More interesting than the outcome of this game (a foregone conclusion) is whether or not the Chiefs will finally take their first non-overtime lead of the season. What a sad statement that is.
The pick: Steelers. And no, the Chiefs will never have the lead.