The 2011-2012 college basketball season was an anomaly. It was one of the most unusually talent-rich years in recent memory. First of all, there was an unusually strong freshman class, from Kentucky stars Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist all the way to Bradley Beal, Austin Rivers, Andre Drummond, and Mo Harkless. On top of that, the threat of an NBA lockout kept many college stars in school for their sophomore years: Jared Sullinger, Terrence Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III, and basically the entire North Carolina starting lineup. Of course, most of this talent was concentrated on the best programs in the country, which hurt parity. There were no George Masons or Butlers or VCUs in the Final Four, only brand-name programs: Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio State, Louisville. An elite group of about eight or ten major-conference teams, with superior talent compared to everyone else, dominated the college hoops landscape.
This season, though? All bets are off. Every player mentioned in the above paragraph is in the NBA now. So are Draymond Green, Marcus Denmon, Robbie Hummel, William Buford, Darius Johnson-Odom...right on down the line, college basketball lost most of its recognizable faces. This year's stars? We're not even sure yet. The incoming freshman class isn't exactly prolific. Arguably its best player, Shabazz Muhammad, is still in NCAA limbo thanks to eligibility questions. We know Cody Zeller and Doug McDermott are going to be good, but beyond them, who can we count on?
So the field is wide open. Anything can happen. The first Coaches Poll of the season was released a few days ago, and it's even more of a dart-throwing-in-the-dark exercise than usual. But the polls do a nice job of helping us understand expectations, so here are a few thoughts on a few notable rankings and what they mean:
#1 Indiana. They're ranked here because the Hoosiers are returning the consensus best player in the country (Cody Zeller) and basically their entire starting lineup, while adding stud freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell. They're going to be an awesome offensive team. But they won't play much defense, or at least didn't last year. That's a testament to how wide-open the field is: the top team in the country is seriously lacking on one whole side of the court.
#2 Louisville. The alternative to Indiana is Louisville, because they too return most of their starting lineup. That includes senior point guard Peyton Siva and menacing shot-blocker Gorgui Dieng. The Cardinals are exact inverse of the Hoosiers. They'll play tenacious defense...but just can't shoot. At all. So here's another "Best Team In the Country" with a rather significant flaw: scoring points.
#3 Kentucky. So if Indiana's porous defense and Louisville's challenged offense don't float your boat, the third option is of course Kentucky. They have a fresh batch of top freshman, even more size than last year, and of course John Calipari. The problem here? No one on the roster has ever started an NCAA game in their career. Ever. So far, the top of this poll looks very unconvincing. Again: its wide open.
#6 North Carolina State. Duke and North Carolina lost most of their talent. N.C. State retained most of theirs, while adding one of the top freshman guards in the country, Rodeny Purvis. So an ACC title is within grasp. But...sixth overall? Ahead of Bill Self's Jayhawks? Seems a little too aggressive.
#7 Kansas. With Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor gone, this ranking is based almost entirely on Bill Self's coaching record. The guy has won eight straight Big 12 titles. How can you argue with that? Why bet against this man?
#13 UCLA. After a poor season last year, the Bruins have brought in a haul of talented freshmen. But honestly, the 2012-2013 UCLA Bruins could be anything from basketball juggernaut to reality TV fodder. Their point guard is the resurfacing Larry Drew II, having transferred in semi-disgrace from North Carolina. Talented forward Josh Smith has well-publicized conditioning problems (localized to "getting his weight below 300 pounds"). Top recruit Shabazz Muhammad's NCAA status is unclear. You get the feeling they'll finish the season either much higher or much lower than #13.
#15 Creighton. Whoa. Fifteenth in the country. They still have Doug McDermott, a preseason All-American, but his team might not be better than the one that lost in the Round of 32 last season. And they don't play defense. Creighton seems drastically overrated here.
#16 Memphis and #19 UNLV. Like Creighton, Memphis and UNLV are from outside a major conference, but these two have a far better shot at making a Final Four in a year with so much parity. Memphis has an insane amount of talent and should handily win Conference USA in its final season before moving to the Big East. UNLV returned to the national stage early last season when they trounced North Carolina, and this year's team might be even better thanks to a top recruiting class and some key transfers. The Tigers and Rebels are fairly ranked.
#17 Missouri. The Tigers are undergoing a significant makeover from last season after a bunch of graduations and a relocation from the Big 12 to the SEC. They're still very intriguing. They already have the conference's preseason player of the year, point guard Phil Pressey. And he's surrounded by a diverse group of interesting transfers. The only reason they aren't ranked higher is probably because the bad taste of that first round loss to Norfolk State is still lingering. Let's see what happens here.
Noticeably absent: Any team from the Atlantic-10. That conference has turned into a monster. Saint Louis, Temple, Saint Joseph's, and Massachusetts are locks to be solid, and Final Four darlings VCU and Butler have now joined the league. That's a stacked assembly of mid-major teams. At least one (probably VCU) should end up being a top-25 team.
On Tuesday, this country elects a President. On Friday, the college basketball season kicks off with 125 games. We're in for one heck of a week.
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