Sunday, July 1, 2012

Misleading On-Screen Graphic

This is just wrong on so many levels:


That's terrific. This purposefully tries to create the illusion that Adam LaRoche is, in some alternate universe, equally deserving of an All-Star start as Joey Votto. Never mind the fact that Votto's average is 100 points higher than LaRoche's; his OBP is 140 points higher, his SLG% is 130 points higher, and his WAR is...wait for it...over three times greater (4.8 to 1.3).

That's right: three Adam LaRoches still isn't as good as one Joey Votto.

But sure, judging All-Star-worthiness by just home runs and RBIs is still a great idea. "Hey, Ike Davis has 11 HRs and 45 RBIs! He's having almost as good a season as Joey Votto!" Well:

Ike Davis' Season Line: .203/.278/.390
Ike Davis' Wins Above Replacement: -0.6.

Yes, that's a 'minus' sign in front of the 0.6. Ike Davis has provided negative value this season. He's been performing at below-replacement-level; theoretically, a Triple-A player could do a better job. But by the criteria established in the misleading LaRoche/Votto graphic, Ike Davis is an All-Star.

We can play this game with other players and positions, too:

Jay Bruce: 17 HRs, 54 RBIs
Andrew McCutchen: 15 HRs, 51 RBIs

McCutchen has been worth 3.6 wins already this season. Bruce has been worth 1.4.

Nelson Cruz: 11 HRs, 49 RBIs
Mike Trout: 9 HRs, 33 RBIs

Nelson Cruz has been worth 0.7 wins. Mike Trout has been worth 4, and might be the MVP of the American League.

But by all means, keep using HRs and RBIs to decide who the best players are. Just know that my All-Star team is going to destroy your All-Star team.

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