Who Would You Take?

You're in charge of the Houston Astros. Your team has one of the weakest major league rosters in the league. Your farm system is mostly barren. Next year, you'll share a division with the rising powers in the AL West, the Rangers and Angels. You're years and years away from competing for a championship, and you're in desperate need of impact talent. Today, you're in charge of making the first overall pick of the MLB Draft. There is no obvious pick out there, no Bryce Harpers or Stephen Strasburgs for the taking. You also can't afford to screw up such an important decision.

Who would you take?

Player A: High school shortstop from Puerto Rico. Shot up draft boards very recently to become a near-certain top-5 pick. He's already a fantastic hitter despite being just 17 years old. He might not be fast enough to stick at short, though his bat is still good enough to be elite at third base if a switch becomes necessary. But beware: the last two high school position players to be selected first overall were Tim Beckham and Matt Bush; both were shortstops, too, and both were spectacular busts.

Player B: Right-handed college pitcher. Unlike Player A, he has long been viewed as a candidate for the first overall pick, and is seen as a very safe selection. With the frame of a workhorse starter and three solid pitches, he won't need much time in the minors before reaching Houston. The concerns rest in his heavy college workload, and the potential implications for his arm. Examples of "safe" college pitchers like Player B who were taken #1 overall include David Price, but also Bryan Bullington.

Player C: High school outfielder from the South. Possibly the most talented player in the draft, featuring all five tools. While raw, he's blazing fast, has a strong arm, and could be an all-time great at the major league level. He could also end up like the last can't-miss high school outfielder selected first overall: Delmon Young.

Player D: College catcher. He's both a strong defender behind the plate, and one of the better hitters in all of college baseball. Good power at a premium position is something few teams could pass on, even if Player D doesn't have the star upside as the other candidates for the first overall pick.

Player E: Right-handed high school pitcher. With a dominant fastball that was clocked at 100 mph and developing secondary pitches, he has the potential to become an ace in the majors and the best pitcher from this draft class. The problem? He strained his ulnar collateral ligament back in March and hasn't pitched since. That makes him the biggest risk/reward pick in the entire draft.

So who do you take?

Pitching or hitting? High school or college? Player A (Carlos Correa) because he was born in 1994 and has pure hitting ability at a premium position? Player B (Mark Appel) because he can reach the majors quickly and pitch at a high level once he arrives? Player C (Byron Buxton) because he might become Ken Griffey Jr.? Player D (Mike Zunino) because he's a safe pick in a draft defined by volatility and randomness? Or Player E (Lucas Giolito) because his untimely injury might just be a minor obstacle in his path to becoming one of MLB's most dominant pitchers?

It's a tough choice, and one the Astros can't afford to screw up. Reports indicate that they're going to take Mark Appel, which makes sense given that he's relatively safe while simultaneously offering good upside. And yet, there's still room to question that pick: Appel doesn't appear to be significantly better than the other college pitchers available, like Kevin Gausman and Kyle Zimmer. If he's not clearly the best player at his own position, then does he deserve to be selected first overall, ahead of potential stars like Buxton and Correa?

I don't know. Nobody does. That's the great part about the MLB Draft--no one really knows what they're doing. It's hardly a popular event, but it's a fascinatingly random one filled with nuance, quirks, steals, busts, and pure guesses. The Astros are on the clock, and I don't envy them.