MLB Season Preview: Chicago Cubs

After Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer refrained from making any big free agent splashes this offseason, the Cubs are unlikely to compete in 2012 as their rebuilding process gets underway.


Starlin Castro's walk total (35) was uncomfortably
close to his error total (29).

Offense: With David DeJesus as the only significant newcomer, Chicago's new management will spend most of 2012 deciding which of their current assets are part of the long-term plan. Their rising star at shortstop, Starlin Castro, definitely is; nothing else is set in stone. 29-year-old first baseman Bryan LaHair is getting his first real shot at playing time after destroying Triple-A last year to the tune of a .331/.405/.664 line with 38 homers in 129 games. If he flops, Anthony Rizzo is waiting in the wings. Ian Stewart and Geovany Soto will try to bounce back from poor seasons while Darwin Barney looks to prove that he can be a solution at second base. The Cubs may also trade Marlon Byrd, but they'll have a harder time convincing someone to take fellow outfielder Alfonso Soriano and most some any of his $54 million contract off their hands. If a spot in the outfield opens up, top prospect Brett Jackson could get his first crack at big-league at-bats.


Pitching: Matt Garza is the only stud, and while Theo Epstein has said that he wants to keep Garza long-term, all it could take is one desperate trade partner at the deadline to change his mind. Following Garza, the pitching is solid at best. Ryan Dempster is a good bet to bounce back from last year's 4.80 ERA. Carlos Zambrano was swapped for Chris Volstad, who should provide similar production with a fraction of the drama. Jeff Samardzija is moving back into the rotation to rediscover his once-lofty potential. Paul Maholm was a cheap acquisition and both Randy Wells and Travis Wood represent other depth options. Carlos Marmol remains one of the game's most volatile closers, and with a bullpen also featuring Kerry Wood and Shawn Camp in prominent roles, the fact that the Cubs have already blown three saves this season isn't shocking.

Jeff Samardzija has set all kinds of records...
when he was a wideout for the Fighting Irish.

Breakout Candidates: Based on his first start of the season, Jeff Samardzija looks like a guy who could really break out. The former standout wide receiver has always struggled with his command, but he threw 8.2 stellar innings with no walks and eight strikeouts against the Nationals a few days ago. Perhaps most impressively, his fastball was still averaging 96 mph in the ninth inning after 90+ pitches. He's a big wild card for a pitching-starved franchise.

3 Key Questions: Can Starlin Castro win the batting title? Are Garza, Byrd, and Marmol trade bait? And will Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson force their way to the majors by midseason?

Best Case Scenario: Samardzija and Volstad develop into solid starters, Epstein is able to unload Soriano, LaHair hits 30 homers, and the Cubs flirt with contention through August before settling for third place in the NL Central.

Worst Case Scenario: Garza is traded away, the bullpen collapses, Castro commits 30 errors, the corner positions are black holes, and only the Astros keep Chicago from finishing last.
Predicted Finish: The Cubs may improve upon last year's win total thanks to the front office's high-upside moves, but playoff contention is a little too much to ask of a roster with this many holes. Fourth place seems about right.