MLB Season Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are still World Series contenders--despite their aging, hurting roster--for three simple reasons: Halladay, Lee, and Hamels.

Turns out, Ryan Howard's Achilles' Heel was his Achilles' heel.

Offense: This lineup was once the class of the National League. Not so much anymore. Last season's Hunter Pence acquisition looks even more important now, because even after accounting for a drop in his .314 batting average, he's the offense's top threat. Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino are a fantastic up-the-middle core. But after that, things get dicey. Ryan Howard is still rehabbing his Achilles, and there's no telling what he'll contribute when he returns. Chase Utley has a serious knee condition that is sure to affect him all season long. Placido Polanco has missed time in each of the past two seasons and even the empty batting average he provides at third base is starting to slip. Domonic Brown still has potential, but yet again won't get a full slate of major league at-bats thanks to John Mayberry Jr. and, of all people, Juan Pierre. Philadelphia's contingent of backups--Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton, Freddy Galvis, Laynce Nix--figures to see a lot of playing time. And that's not a good thing.

Don't mess.

Pitching: When your offensive outlook is bleak, it helps to have three of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. Roy Halladay has strung together four straight seasons of 230+ innings and sub-2.80 ERAs. Cliff Lee struck out 238 batters last season while walking just 42. Cole Hamels, the team's third-best pitcher, had a 0.99 WHIP in 2011. This is the best trio of aces the game has seen in a while. Even fourth starter Vance Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in his rookie season, and Joe Blanton is an acceptable back-end guy when healthy. Jonathan Papelbon and Antonio Bastardo constitute an excellent late-game bullpen duo; Jose Contreras (who apparently still plays baseball) is rehabbing.

Vance Worley's 3.01 ERA was
4th-worst on the staff. Loser.

Breakout Candidates: There aren't many on this roster of veterans. John Mayberry Jr. could put up some impressive power numbers if he's given enough starts in Howard's absence, and the same goes for once-promising outfielder Domonic Brown if he's ever given an extended chance. Vance Worley has a chance to replicate his excellent rookie numbers across a full season's workload.

3 Key Questions: How healthy will Utley and Howard be by the All-Star break? Will GM Ruben Amaro make yet another midseason trade if the back of the rotation falls apart? And can the dominant pitching carry a sinking offense to the playoffs in a suddenly-tight division race?

Best Case Scenario: Hamels signs an extension, Thome and Mayberry combine to hit 50 homers, Howard and Utley are raking come October, Halladay-Lee-Hamels finish 1-2-3 in the Cy Young voting, Papelbon dominates the National League, and the Phillies win the World Series.

Worst Case Scenario: Halladay finally feels his age, Utley's knees collapse, Howard doesn't come back strong, Lee gets hurt, the bottom of the lineup hits like the Astros, Hamels signs with the Dodgers, and the aging Phillies fall to fourth in the NL East.

Predicted Finish: The offense looks iffy, but you have to imagine it'll improve as Howard/Utley/Polanco get healthier. And Halladay/Lee/Hamels should be more than enough to win some low-scoring games. The Phillies finish second, capture a wild card, and return to the postseason. Once there, the presence of the three aces makes anything possible.