MLB Season Preview: Seattle Mariners

Seattle is home to the worst offense in baseball, but some impressive young talent is about to have an impact on this organization.

Despite four hits in MLB's Japan opener,
Ichiro isn't what he once was.

Offense: In 2011, the Mariners had the lowest AVG, OBP, and SLG% in the game, leading to just 556 runs. Things should get a little better in 2012, but not by much. Ichiro Suzuki hit below .300 for the first time in his career (.272), and at age 38, expecting a major bounce-back isn't realistic. The rest of the outfield offense will be unspeakably bad; so will Chone Figgins (.188/.241/.243 for a horrid 39 OPS+) and Miguel Olivo (whose 19 homers did little to disguise his .253 OBP). The future of the Mariners' offense lies with three young talents in the infield. Second baseman Dustin Ackley, picked second after Stephen Strasburg in 2009, was already Seattle's best hitter as a rookie last season. At first, Justin Smoak was supposed to be a star after being acquired in the Cliff Lee trade; he hasn't developed as hoped, but there's still time. The offseason's biggest acquisition, Jesus Montero, could develop into the offensive star the Mariners need, though he needs to find a permanent position.

Don't mess with royalty.

Pitching: Thank goodness for Felix Hernandez, without whom the Mariners might be considered one of baseball's most depressing teams. King Felix, astonishingly, is only entering his age-26 season. With Michael Pineda gone, no one else in the rotation has eye-popping upside. Jason Vargas is a perfectly average pitcher who benefits from the vastness of Safeco. Young trade acquisitions Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan hope to do the same. The fact that Kevin Millwood made the rotation speaks to the situation in Seattle. Japanese import Hisashi Iwakuma will likely see some starts at some point. Between the anemic offense and a bullpen that's extremely questionable after closer Brandon League, wins will be few and far between for this rotation. The true bright spots wait in the minor leagues. 2011's second overall pick Danny Hultzen will see the majors before too long, and he'll be followed by promising arms like James Paxton and Taijuan Walker. Until then, the non-Felix pitching won't be enough to overcome the lack of run support.

90 games into his career, is Dustin
Ackley already Seattle's top hitter?

Breakout Candidates: Both Smoak and Montero could have big seasons, but Dustin Ackley appears most ready to have a big-time impact. He'll hit for average with some power and speed, and looks like a perennial All-Star at second base. Hector Noesi could also surprise a lot of people after not getting a chance to show off his solid stuff in the Yankees' rotation.

3 Key Questions: Is the old Ichiro gone? How will Montero handle catching duties? And how long before the Seattle front office decides to tank the season and hand the reins over to the youngsters?

Best Case Scenario: Ichiro rebounds, Montero looks good behind the plate, Smoak has a big year, Hultzen has a dominating debut...and the Mariners still finish in third place.

Worst Case Scenario: Ackley and Smoak regress, Montero can't catch, Ichiro is finished, Felix wants out, the bullpen is baseball's worst, and the Mariners finish last with 100 losses.

Predicted Finish: Seattle's youth appears to be more ready to contribute in the big leagues than Oakland's, so the Mariners avoid last place. Still, the front office would be advised to sell whatever parts can be sold and give the bulk of the playing time to the young infielders and pitchers. The M's future is getting closer, but it hasn't quite arrived yet.