Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Bracket Breakdown: West Region

The West is home to Tom Izzo's Spartans, but this bracket might be the tournament's most wide-open region.


-If you like up-tempo basketball, this is the region for you. Some of the country's fastest-paced offenses can be found in the West: Missouri, Florida, Marquette, Murray State, Davidson, BYU, and even LIU-Brooklyn. Those high-flying offenses will contrast sharply with the defensive-oriented, ground-and-pound styles of teams like Michigan State, Louisville, New Mexico, Saint Louis, and Virginia.

-The West Region could be the one that blows up. This bracket could get really messy. Multiple double-digit seeds could achieve upsets. Every high seed is a candidate for both the Final Four and a first-weekend upset. If an unexpected team gets to New Orleans, chances are it comes out of the West.

-The top 8/9 game in the field. #8 Memphis taking on #9 Saint Louis is one of the best opening-round matchups out there. Memphis is tremendously talented and the Tigers are playing like a much higher seed right now. But Saint Louis, coached by Rick Majerus, is disciplined on both ends of the court. This should be a close game, and the winner will give Michigan State fits.

-Louisville/Davidson and New Mexico/Long Beach State. This is the most interesting 4-13/5-12 sub-bracket, and could end up being the most chaotic. Louisville won the Big East tournament with suffocating defense and rebounding, but could struggle to keep up offensively with Davidson's three-point shooting. New Mexico won the Mountain West tournament, plays similarly great defense, and boasts Drew Gordon on the interior, but an experienced Long Beach State team is a threat to pull off the upset, especially if Larry Anderson is healthy. One of these four will reach the Sweet Sixteen, and it's wide-open.

-#7 Florida vs #10 Virginia: a contrast of styles. Both the Gators and Cavaliers have been playing poorly of late, but the similarities between the two end there. Florida, led by elite guards Kenny Boynton, Erving Walker, and freshman Bradley Beal, shoots a ton of three-pointers and doesn't defend very well. The Cavaliers run their offense through All-ACC forward Mike Scott and depend on defense, especially at the three-point line, to win games. Something's gotta give.

-Are the high-powered offenses of #2 Missouri and #3 Marquette on a collision course? That would certainly be a great game in the Sweet Sixteen. But each has to get through its own challenges first. Missouri must defeat either a similar guard-oriented offense in Florida or a slow-it-down Virginia team. And Marquette has to face two teams that can match its offensive attack: the #14 BYU Cougars, who survived Iona's up-tempo assault, and likely the #6 Murray State Racers, who could beat Marquette at its own game.

-Will #1 Michigan State survive? If the Spartans reach the Final Four, it would be one of Tom Izzo's most impressive accomplishments. They're not even favored to win their own region despite being the 1-seed; Missouri is a more popular Final Four pick. They got the toughest draw for the Round of 32, as Memphis and Saint Louis are excellent basketball teams. Rick Pitino could be waiting in the Sweet 16. And Izzo might have to find a way to slow down the potent offense of Mizzou (or Marquette, or Murray State) to get to New Orleans. It's a difficult route, but for a March mastermind like Izzo, it can be done.

-The Favorites: Michigan State, Missouri
-Final Four sleepers: Marquette, Murray State, Louisville, Florida
-Vulnerable top seeds: Marquette, Louisville, New Mexico
-Cinderella candidates: Long Beach State, Davidson, BYU

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