-#1 Syracuse has a difficult path to the Final Four. The Orange would probably gladly switch regions with Kentucky. Syracuse will be rooting for #9 Southern Miss to beat #8 Kansas State in their matchup, since K-State's size and rebounding advantage could be problematic for a Syracuse team that will be without the ineligible Fab Melo for the tournament. If the Orange survive, they could get either sharpshooting Vanderbilt, coming off a defeat of Kentucky, or Wisconsin and its tough defense. And to get to the Final Four, they might have to beat either Ohio State, Florida State, or Cincinnati, all of which are defensive-minded and have already beaten elite teams. At least the Orange will play in Pittsburgh and Boston.
-Will #5 Vanderbilt lose...again? Vanderbilt has lost in the first round as a high seed a lot recently, and the fact that the Commodores are a five-seed--a slot always prone to upsets--doesn't help. Neither does their opponent, a strong #12 Harvard squad that will limit baskets. You just have to think that this is a different Vanderbilt team than past units, one with elite guards and an inside presence in Festus Ezeli, that will buck the recent trend and give Syracuse's zone defense fits in the Sweet 16.
-#4 Wisconsin could be in trouble. The Badgers have been up-and-down all season long, and suddenly their offense depends a lot on hitting threes. They'll face #14 Montana, and the Grizzlies are more than capable of winning this game. Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar give the Big Sky champ a dynamic duo of guards that can match Jordan Taylor shot-for-shot. Since the Badgers are great defenders, play a slow tempo, and rarely turn the ball over, they'll be tough to take out. But Montana has a better chance of winning than you might think.
-#6 Cincinnati vs #11 Texas: toss-up? 11-seeds pull off upsets every year, and Texas has the potential to knock off Cincy. The Bearcats don't hit their free throws and don't shoot very well. The problem with the Longhorns is their reliance on J'Covan Brown, who composes much of their offense but isn't efficient from the floor. Texas may need a Herculean effort from him to overcome Cincinnati's strong defensive and rebounding advantages. The Bearcats showcased their ceiling in the Big East tournament, and have already beaten top seed Syracuse; getting a rematch, though, will require two more wins after Texas, likely against Florida State and Ohio State.
-#3 Florida State can reach the Final Four. With great defense, bench depth, and experience, the Seminoles beat Duke and North Carolina twice each this season and won the ACC tournament. So when they're scoring consistently, like in the ACC championship game, they're nearly impossible to beat. Of course, this team also lost to two Ivy League schools, and could get ambushed by St. Bonaventure and Andrew Nicholson in the first round. Still, the Seminoles are a nice darkhorse candidate for a deep tourney run.
-#7 Gonzaga or #10 West Virginia? This is easily one of the first round's most intriguing matchups. Gonzaga has the better team in most facets--talent, skills, decision-making, three-point shooting, etc. Robert Sacre is a force in the paint, Elias Harris and Kevin Pangos are elite scorers, and coach Mark Few has been here before. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs got a tough draw. First of all, this is a virtual road game, as they'll travel across the country to Pittsburgh, a mere bus ride away from Morgantown. And secondly, physical teams have given Gonzaga problems, and the Mountaineers' interior duo of Kevin Jones and Deniz Kilicli is as physical as it gets. West Virginia lacks experience, doesn't shoot well, and makes poor decisions, but might find a way to win anyway.
-#2 Ohio State needs to avoid foul trouble. The Buckeyes can reach the Final Four and perhaps the national championship game if they do so. Ohio State features lockdown defense, great coaching, talented scorers, and a formidable big man, but they really lack depth. Foul trouble for players like Aaron Craft and Jared Sullinger could sink their Final Four hopes early. If the Buckeyes' best players stay on the court, the path is clear to an Elite Eight date with Syracuse, and possibly beyond.
-The Favorites: Syracuse, Ohio State
-Final Four sleepers: Florida State, Vanderbilt
-Vulnerable top seeds: Wisconsin, Cincinnati
-Cinderella candidates: Harvard, Montana, St. Bonaventure
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