Frank Thomas deserves to be in the Hall of Fame based solely on his first seven full seasons in the majors and nothing else. From 1991 to 1997, he was one of the three best players in baseball despite offering no defensive or baserunning value -- because he literally hit like Lou Gehrig:
Thomas, 1991-97: .330/.452/.604, 182 OPS+
Lou Gehrig, career: .340/.447/.632, 179 OPS+
In those seven seasons, Thomas was worth 44.5 Wins Above Replacement, roughly equivalent to the value of David Ortiz's entire career. He hit 250 home runs, won back-to-back MVPs in '93 and '94, and led the league in OPS, OBP, and walks four times each. His worst OPS during this stretch was .975, and that figure still led the league in 1992. Much like Sandy Koufax, it's possible that Thomas could have retired after 1997 and still been elected to the Hall of Fame anyway, given the absurd dominance he achieved immediately upon reaching the major leagues.
Unfortunately, Thomas could not maintain this torrid pace beyond those seven years (or we'd obviously be talking about him as one of the greatest players of all time). Over the final 11 seasons of his career, he never again led the league in a major statistical category, and he only had one more MVP-caliber year (he finished 2nd in the voting in 2000). During this injury-plagued decade, he hit like a mere mortal: .276/.389/.515 cumulatively, essentially matching Fred McGriff's career line. He spent most of this part of his career as a DH, continuing to offer no defensive value. He did at least last long enough to hit 521 home runs, thus surpassing that critical milestone.
So Thomas' case is ultimately very simple. For the first 1,000 games of his career, he hit like Lou Gehrig; for the final 1,200 games, he hit like Fred McGriff. That's more than enough to warrant a plaque in the Hall. It doesn't matter that he didn't provide any defensive or baserunning value along the way; his bat alone fueled a career worth over 70 WAR, a total that 13 of the 18 Hall of Fame first basemen did not reach. His final batting line was an exceptional .301/.419/.555 and his .974 OPS ranks 14th among all hitters ever (in a virtual tie with Stan Musial). Thomas was one of the best hitters in a generation of great hitters. Even though this is his first appearance on the ballot, he's got an excellent shot at being elected to Cooperstown a month from now. Especially considering his outspoken comments against steroid use during his playing days, which will appeal to the moral arbiters within the voting body. Like Greg Maddux, Thomas is a slam-dunk statistical case who also boasts a clean personal reputation.
If Thomas does in fact get his plaque this year, the voters will be passing over another first baseman on the ballot who has been patiently waiting his turn: Jeff Bagwell. He's already been voted on and rejected three times, and this year won't produce a better result. He's bound to be leapfrogged by Thomas. Based on this clear-cut gap in perception between Thomas (perhaps a first-ballot guy) and Bagwell (languishing in Cooperstown purgatory), one might assume that there's a corresponding gap between the respective quality of their careers. That's actually not the case -- in fact, it was Bagwell who had the more valuable career. He's just criminally underrated.
While Thomas generated all of his value with his bat, Bagwell was a far more well-rounded player. We don't have to pretend that he was a defensive whiz at first base, but he did play over 18,000 innings there in his career. Thomas, on the other hand, played just over 8,000 innings at first, with the rest of his time coming at DH. It's difficult to quantify, but there's significant value in the extra 10,000 innings that Bagwell spent on the field over Thomas.
Bagwell also had a huge edge on the basepaths. Thomas, not a small man, was one of the worst baserunners of all time. But Bagwell stole 202 bases in his career and had two 30-steal seasons. He led the league in runs scored three times.
And Bagwell was the more durable player. He was a healthy, above-average hitter in 14 of his 15 seasons, the lone exception being his injury-plagued 2005 in which he was diagnosed with an arthritic shoulder that forced his retirement. Bagwell was worth at least 3 WAR in 14 different seasons; Thomas only managed 11 such seasons despite a longer career. Yes, Bagwell's baseball life span was relatively short, but that fact is mitigated by how hyper-productive he was throughout his playing days.
Thomas was better offensively, but Bagwell wasn't far behind: a .297/.408/.540 hitter with a .948 OPS that ranks 21st all-time, just ahead of Mel Ott. Bagwell more than compensates for Thomas' small edge in offense with his added value in the field and on the basepaths. Their respective career WAR totals reflect this fact:
Bagwell: 79.5 WAR in 2,150 games
Thomas: 73.6 WAR in 2,322 games
Possibly the most common criticism of Bagwell is the claim that he was merely a consistently good player who failed to achieve the kind of "greatness" that Frank Thomas did. Well, Bagwell actually had a dominant seven-year stretch of his own that was literally just as good as Thomas' legendary run:
Thomas, 1991-97: 44.5 WAR
Bagwell, 1994-2000: 44.6 WAR
Furthermore, Bagwell's best season was eerily similar to Thomas' best season (both came in the strike-shortened 1994 season, when they each won their league's MVP award):
Thomas, 1994: .353/.487/.729, 212 OPS+, 38 HRs
Bagwell, 1994: .368/.451/.750, 213 OPS+, 39 HRs
So yes, both Thomas and Bagwell achieved greatness. They just went about it in different ways. And they're both no-brainer Hall of Famers.
My Ballot So Far:
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Greg Maddux
4. Jeff Bagwell
5. Frank Thomas
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