Curt Schilling is in serious danger of being lost in the shuffle on an increasingly-crowded Hall of Fame ballot. After a disappointing debut last year (he was supported by fewer than 40% of the writers), he now has to contend for votes with newcomers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Mike Mussina, with Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz all set to join the field next year, and Roger Clemens still hanging around. Schilling's low career win total (216) may force him to wait for years at the back of this growing queue for induction. But even among this distinguished company, he still clearly stands out as a pitcher worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown.
What Schilling lacked in quantity (only 216 wins and 3,261 innings), he made up for in quality. Few Hall of Famers can match the efficiency of his production. His career WHIP of 1.14 ranks 47th all-time, ahead of all the other greats on this year's ballot (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Mussina). His strikeout rate of 8.6 per nine innings ranks as the 12th-best mark among all non-active pitchers. And because he walked fewer than two batters per nine innings for his career, he retired with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in modern baseball history (4.38). This ability to maximize strikeouts while limiting baserunners helped Schilling post a career 3.46 ERA and 127 ERA+ (both of which are better than the career marks of Glavine and Mussina) across 20 seasons that spanned the entirety of the Steroid Era.
Schilling also enjoyed one of the most impressive peaks of any pitcher in recent memory. During the full decade between 1995 and 2004, he posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in about 212 innings per season. He threw 64 complete games during this stretch, the most in baseball, and struck out more than 300 hitters three times, a feat equaled only by Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, and Sandy Koufax. He didn't win a Cy Young but finished as the runner-up in the voting three times, losing to teammate Randy Johnson (twice) and Johan Santana. These ten seasons were worth a total of about 60 Wins Above Replacement, roughly the value of Andy Pettitte's entire 18-year career.
Schilling's stellar regular season production is augmented by his work in the postseason, which is almost unmatched in baseball history. He made a total of 19 playoff starts (133.1 innings) and allowed two runs or fewer in 16 of them (with a 2.33 ERA overall). Five times, Schilling started a postseason elimination game; his ERA in those starts was 1.37 and his team won all five of them. That includes his outing in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, as well as his famous "bloody sock" performance in Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS. Schilling won three titles, earned a World Series MVP award, and saw virtually all of his numbers improve drastically in the playoffs relative to the regular season. If anyone's Hall of Fame candidacy deserves a boost from glory won in October, it's Schilling.
Ultimately, the only way to nitpick his career is to point out that it wasn't as good as Greg Maddux's or Roger Clemens'. But that's not exactly fair, because nobody besides Maddux and Clemens can meet that impossible standard. Schilling comfortably belongs to the elite tier occupied by the likes of Mike Mussina and Tom Glavine -- not historically dominant, yet still markedly better than the average Hall of Famer. Schilling accumulated 80 WAR in his career, a total achieved by only 20 pitchers in the Hall of Fame. He had a decade-long run of excellence at the height of the most hitter-friendly era in history. He is one of only 16 pitchers with at least 3,000 career strikeouts. And few players can claim to match his impact on the outcomes of multiple playoff series and championships. If that isn't a Hall of Fame career, then really, what is?
My Ballot So Far:
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Greg Maddux
4. Jeff Bagwell
5. Frank Thomas
6. Mike Mussina
7. Tom Glavine
8. Curt Schilling
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