Thursday, December 5, 2013

Cooperstown Candidate: Barry Lamar Bonds

Barry Bonds' statistical record is mostly ignored when it comes to his Hall of Fame case. The debate over his candidacy has devolved into an argument about morality, not merit. As a result of this distracting steroids narrative, the baseball world is failing to appreciate Bonds' tremendous career and its place in history. Judging only by his on-the-field production, he's more than just a Hall of Famer -- he belongs in the pantheon reserved only for a handful of the sport's most dominant players. And here are the basic arguments for why that's true.

1. Bonds accumulated the second-most career Wins Above Replacement among all position players in baseball history, trailing only Babe Ruth. According to WAR, he was the best position player in his league in 11 different seasons. He reached base more times in his career than any other player in baseball history (5,599) except for Pete Rose, who had the benefit of more than 3,000 additional plate appearances. He has the third-most career runs scored (2,227). He has the fourth-most career runs batted in (1,996). And he has the fourth-most total bases (5,976).

2. Bonds is perhaps most (in)famous for hitting home runs. Lots of them. His holds the career record (762) and the single-season record (73 in 2001) for home runs. He hit 30 or more of them 14 times, and he hit 40 or more eight times. On average, he hit a home run once every 12.9 at-bats, the third-best rate all-time.

3. Bonds owns the 6th-best career on-base percentage (.444) in baseball history. He had the highest single-season OBP ever (.609 in 2004), as well as the second-highest (.581 in 2002). It bears repeating -- maybe you missed this statistic, because it was hidden within parentheses in the previous sentence -- that Bonds once had a single-season OBP of .609. As in, he got on base more than 60% of the time for an entire season. He also led the league in OBP ten times.

4. Bonds owns the 5th-best career slugging percentage (.607) in baseball history. He had the highest single-season slugging percentage ever (.863 in 2001), as well as the fourth-highest (.812 in 2004) and the fifth-highest (.800 in 2002). He also led the league in slugging seven times.

5. Bonds owns the 4th-best career on-base-plus-slugging percentage (1.051) in baseball history. In this category, he trails only the three best hitters to ever live: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Lou Gehrig. He had the highest single-season OPS ever (1.421 in 2004), as well as the second-highest (1.381 in 2002), the fourth-highest (1.379 in 2004), and the eighth-highest (1.278 in 2003).

6. The significance of the last sentence in the previous paragraph is this: from 2001 to 2004, Bonds produced four of the eight best offensive seasons of all time (according to OPS). His cumulative triple-slash line for those four seasons was .349/.559/.809. In that four-year stretch, he won more MVP awards (four) than any player has ever won in his entire career. Bonds' ages during those four seasons: 36, 37, 38, 39.

7. Bonds' career adjusted-OPS (OPS+) is 182, meaning he was 82% better than the average hitter during his career. That figure ranks third-best all-time, behind only Babe Ruth and Ted Williams. He also had the best single-season OPS+ ever (268 in 2002), as well as the second-best (263 in 2004) and the third-best (259 in 2001). So according to OPS+, Bonds produced the three best offensive seasons of all time.

8. Bonds has more career walks than any player in baseball history (2,558, almost 400 more than anyone else). He owns the single-season record for walks (232 in 2004), as well as the record for second-most (198 in 2002) and third-most (177 in 2001). So Bonds produced the three most prolific walk seasons of all time. He also led the league in walks twelve times.

9. Bonds has more career intentional walks than any player in baseball history by a country mile (688, far ahead of Hank Aaron's 293 in second place). He owns the single-season record for intentional walks (120 in 2004), as well as the record for second-most (68 in 2002) and the record for third-most (61 in 2003). The most times any non-Bonds player has been intentionally walked in a season is just 45. He also led the league in intentional walks twelve times. Once, he was intentionally walked in the bottom of the ninth -- with the bases loaded.

10. Bonds is sometimes thought of exclusively as a San Francisco Giant. But his seven-year stint with the Pittsburgh Pirates was worth 50 WAR, roughly equal to the value of Orlando Cepeda's entire career.

11. Bonds is sometimes thought of exclusively as a slow, plodding, "one-dimensional" power hitter. That couldn't be further from the truth. His career batting average was .298 and he finished his career with 2,935 hits. He won two batting titles by hitting .370 and .362. He stole 514 bases in his career (the 33rd-most all-time, ahead of Ichiro Suzuki and Roberto Alomar) at a pretty good 78% success rate. He won seven Gold Gloves in the outfield and he led the league in assists by a left fielder six different times.

12. In 1996, Bonds joined the single-season 40-40 club by hitting 42 home runs and stealing 40 bases, a feat matched by only three other players. He's also a member of the career 300-homer/300-steal club, along with only seven other players. He's the only member of the 400-400 club. And he's the only member of the 500-500 club.

13. In the 2002 playoffs, Bonds set the record for most home runs in a single postseason with eight (which has since been tied by Carlos Beltran and Nelson Cruz), including four in the World Series. He hit so well that opposing teams just refused to pitch to him, so he also set the record for most walks in a single postseason with 27. His OBP in those playoffs was .608. His OPS in that World Series was 1.994.

14. In his final season in 2007, in which he turned 43 years old, Bonds led the league in OBP (.480), walks (132), and intentional walks (43), with an OPS of 1.045. Bonds never declined -- he just stopped playing.

15. Bonds won seven MVP awards in his career. Nobody else has ever won more than three.

The sport has never seen a player like Barry Bonds. He hit for average, hit for power, and got on base. He hit more home runs than anybody else and walked more than anybody else. He was a strong defensive outfielder and an efficient base-stealer. At his peak, he was the most dominant player the sport has ever seen -- but his career also lasted for 22 seasons and he accumulated strong longevity numbers without ever becoming a below-average player. He was so good that his opponents conceded first base to him at an unprecedented rate. He had a transcendent postseason run. He won more than twice as many MVP awards as anyone else ever did.

Bonds is not "just" a Hall of Famer. He's easily the best baseball player since Willie Mays. Conservatively, he's one of the top five players of all time. It's not at all crazy to suggest that he might be the best player ever, period.

He also won't make the Hall of Fame this year because he may have taken some drugs. Cool story.

If I could submit my own Hall of Fame ballot, here's what it might look like:

1. Barry Bonds
2. B. Bonds
3. Bobby Bonds' son
4. Barry
5. Bartholomew Lamar Bonds
6. The all-time leader in home runs
7. The all-time leader in walks
8. The only member of the 400-400 and 500-500 clubs
9. The only seven-time MVP
10. BARRY BONDS

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