For the second year in a row, Miguel Cabrera will win an MVP award that probably should have been Mike Trout's.
This is a more difficult race than it was last year, when Cabrera won the Triple Crown and Trout had one of the best rookie seasons of all time. Somehow, both players performed better in 2013. Trout hit .323/.432/.557 with 27 home runs and 33 steals; Cabrera hit .348/.442/.636 with 44 home runs and a league-leading 187 OPS+.
The race might be tighter than last year, but the winner should again be Trout. Some people will find this conclusion completely unacceptable when it really should be common sense. Which player is more valuable: the best hitter in the league who provides negative value with his legs and glove, or the second-best hitter in the league who's also one of the best baserunning and defensive players in the sport? This obvious gap in value is reflected by their respective WAR figures: 9.2 for Trout and 7.2 for Cabrera, according to Baseball Reference. And maybe Cabrera's offensive advantage isn't even as large as we imagine. Cabrera had more total bases than Trout (353 to 328), but Trout easily passes Cabrera once you factor in his lead in walks (110 to 90), net steals (26 to 3) and double plays grounded into (8 to 19).
Rather humorously, all the arguments that the pro-Cabrera crowd used last year to support their candidate could be reversed and applied to Trout now. A year ago, Cabrera was given bonus points for playing in more games than Trout and for hitting better in September, when apparently the games "count" more than they do in other months. This year? Trout has appeared in more games (157 to 148) and absolutely crushed Cabrera in September (.949 OPS to .729). But assuredly, the Cabrera supporters won't be citing those arguments this time around, because they don't back up the conclusion they've already arrived at.
Some would penalize Trout for being on an inferior team while Cabrera is going to the playoffs, but ... why? Why should Cabrera get the edge in the AL MVP vote just because his pitching staff has Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, and Doug Fister? Why penalize Trout for the black holes of nothingness that were Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton? This is an individual award, and Trout is the best, and most valuable, individual player.
Here's the rest of my AL MVP ballot, as well as the rest of baseball's award winners.
AL MVP
1. Mike Trout: not only will he lose; he might not even come in second.
2. Miguel Cabrera: might have finished first if not for an injury that's kept him hobbled for weeks.
3. Josh Donaldson: Oakland's best player, he hit .301/.384/.499 with strong defense at third base.
4. Chris Davis: fifty-three home runs is a lot of home runs.
5. Robinson Cano: like clockwork, he had his typical season (.314/.383/.516) in a lineup that featured Brett Gardner as its second-best hitter.
6. Adrian Beltre: the Robinson Cano of third base.
7. Evan Longoria: finally played in 160 games.
8. Dustin Pedroia: didn't even need to hit double-digit home runs to be one of the best players in the AL.
9. Jacoby Ellsbury: about to make at least $100 million on the free agent market.
10. Manny Machado: his offense cratered in the second half, but he's already one of the best defensive players in the sport.
NL MVP
1. Andrew McCutchen: he'll win this award for being the best all-around player; why is this logic nowhere to be found in the AL race?
2. Matt Carpenter: led the league in hits (199), doubles (55), and runs scored (126), all as a second baseman.
3. Paul Goldschmidt: the best offensive player in the NL.
4. Carlos Gomez: went unnoticed despite being an outstanding defensive center fielder who also slugged .508, hit 24 homers, and stole 40 bases.
5. Joey Votto: supposedly had a "down" year, when in reality he broke Pete Rose's franchise record for most times on base in a single season.
6. Yadier Molina: the best catcher in baseball also hit .319 and slugged .477.
7. Clayton Kershaw: one of the few times a pitcher actually deserves to appear on an MVP ballot.
8. Shin-Soo Choo: only teammate Joey Votto had a higher OBP in the National League.
9. Troy Tulowitzki: health is the only thing keeping him from winning an MVP.
10. Hanley Ramirez: had the greatest offensive season by any shortstop ever (.345/.402/.638), but only played in 86 games.
AL Cy Young
1. Max Scherzer: just barely ekes out the next few candidates in a very tight race.
2. Felix Hernandez: perennially the best case for ditching win-loss record as a legitimate statistic (12-10 record, 3.04 ERA).
3. Yu Darvish: a delicious 277 strikeouts in 209.2 innings.
4. Chris Sale: gave up a grand total of three extra-base hits to left-handed hitters all season (in 163 plate appearances).
5. Anibal Sanchez: much like Hanley Ramirez, Sanchez had the best numbers of anyone but didn't stay on the field enough.
NL Cy Young
1. Clayton Kershaw: his 2013 season was roughly as good as Sandy Koufax's 1966 season, and that isn't hyperbole.
2. Adam Wainwright: clearly the second-best pitcher in the league, and he still gave up 31 more earned runs than Kershaw.
3. Matt Harvey: unhittable before a devastating elbow injury.
4. Jose Fernandez: 20 years old, skipped Double-A and Triple-A, and posted a 2.19 ERA in 172.2 innings.
5. Cliff Lee: ho hum, just your typical Cliff Lee season -- 220 innings, a sub-3.00 ERA, and a league-leading strikeout-to-walk ratio.
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