Friday, February 15, 2013

Michael Jordan Would Probably Vote For Jack Morris, Too

You hate to question the basketball know-how of the best basketball player ever. You really do. But then he goes off and says something insane, and, well ... here we are.

Apparently Michael Jordan said in an interview with NBA TV that he would take Kobe Bryant over LeBron James. The story on ESPN.com doesn't say what the specific context was -- is Jordan taking Kobe over LeBron for one game? A Game Seven? Or for a hypothetical playoff series? For one season? For an all-time team? To start a hypothetical franchise? Not exactly clear on which of these platforms Jordan would shun LeBron for Kobe. But it's so obviously the wrong choice that it doesn't even matter.

Picking Kobe over LeBron is intellectually equivalent to voting Jack Morris into the Baseball Hall of Fame. There's simply no way to justify it using any rational facts. Trust me -- I tried. I tried to give Jordan the benefit of the doubt. "Maybe I'm not as knowledgeable on this subject as he is," said I. "After all, he is the greatest athlete to ever play the sport. Maybe he does know something I don't."

I checked, and he clearly doesn't. You can try to find a meaningful statistical measure that says Kobe Bryant is a better basketball player than LeBron James, but you'll be looking for a very long time. First off, James is just better at the sport's primary goal, which is putting the ball into the basket. His career field goal percentage is 48.8% (and he's shooting 56% this season!). Kobe's career average is 45.3%. Heck, Kobe's career-high in single-season field goal percentage was 46.9%, back in 2001-02. James has only had one season with a lower percentage than that -- his first. So to recap: every single one of LeBron's seasons, except for his rookie year, has been more efficient than Kobe Bryant's most efficient season. Read that sentence again.

Now, one could logically assume that while James might be a more efficient scorer, Bryant is the more prolific scorer, given that putting up obscene point totals on a nightly basis is what Kobe does best. But his career scoring average is 25.5 points per game. James has averaged 27.6. So, James scores more, and does so at a more efficient rate. Hmm. Numbers making things complicated again.

There's obviously more. James averages 7.2 rebounds per game in his career, Kobe 5.3. James averages 6.9 assists, Kobe 4.7. An advanced measure called PER (Player Efficiency Rating), which captures a player's total contributions on the court into one whole number (much like WAR in baseball), likes James more, too. In fact, James has led the league in PER in each of the last five seasons, and he's leading the league again this season. Kobe has never led the league in PER. LeBron grabs more steals and blocks more shots and plays more minutes and oh-by-the-way is one of the best defensive players in the league who can guard any position on the floor.

Kobe does shoot free throws at a higher percentage, but James actually gets to the line more. Their carer three-point percentages are identical (33.6%), but LeBron has improved that area of his game recently and is shooting 42% from beyond the arc this season (!!!). If you're desperate to find something, anything, that Kobe has the upper hand in, it's turnovers. Kobe turns the ball over less. There you go, Kobe. Revel in your one victory.

"But what about the playoffs," you're probably asking. "Surely Kobe Bryant, renowned playoff assassin and clutch performer, is superior to infamous choker LeBron James under the bright lights of the NBA postseason." Sorry, wrong again, Straw Man. Kobe's postseason points-per-game average is nearly identical to his regular season average, 25.6, while LeBron is up at 28.5. James still has the efficiency advantage, .469% to .448%. His statistical edge in all those other categories mentioned above carries into the postseason, too.

So what, exactly, is Mr. Jordan's reasoning for picking Kobe? Rings. Kobe has won five titles. James has one. Here's the direct quote:

"Five beats one every time I look at it," Jordan said. "And not that (James) won't get five. He may get more than that, but five is bigger than one."



Factually, sure, Michael is right. But haven't we, as a society, evolved past the stage of judging individual players based on team outcome? Clearly not. We decided Mike Trout wasn't as good as Miguel Cabrera because the Tigers were better than the Angels. We still think Derek Jeter is better than Alex Rodriguez because Jeter has five titles and Rodriguez has one. Robert Horry won seven NBA championships; would Jordan take him over Kobe, if rings are the ultimate judge of talent? What about any member of the 1960s Celtics?

Are we just ignoring the quality of teammates? Does Michael think one player can just will his team to a championship, even if the rest of his team sucks? If that was possible, then why hasn't Kobe won 16 championships instead of five? Remember that when Kobe Bryant won his first three titles, the MVP of the Finals each time was Shaquille O'Neal, not Bryant. I wonder how many rings Kobe or Jordan would have if you replaced their Hall of Fame teammates with the scrubs LeBron James had to work with on the Cleveland Cavaliers between 2003 and 2010. Replace Shaq or Scottie Pippen with Antawn Jamison or Mo Williams. How well do Kobe and Jordan do with those guys?

Anyways, this whole narrative is ridiculous because Jordan is basically penalizing LeBron for not playing as long as Kobe. Of course Kobe has won more rings; this is his 17th season. LeBron is actually right on pace with Jordan himself when it comes to winning titles. Jordan won his first ring during his age-27 season. So did LeBron. So fine, if you want to discount what LeBron has accomplished statistically because he can't accelerate time, go ahead. That's basically the one thing he can't do.

It's just disappointing to see Michael Jordan buying into these ridiculous media-driven narratives. Because narrative is the only reason why anyone would think Kobe Bryant is better than LeBron James. Yes, Michael, five is bigger than one. But 27.6 is bigger than 25.5, and 48.8% is bigger than 45.3%, and 7.2 is bigger than 5.3, and 6.9 is bigger than 4.7, and so on down the line.

So go ahead, Michael. Take Kobe Bryant. You can have him. I'll take LeBron James. And you can watch helplessly as my team destroys yours.

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