It might not seem like it, but Fred McGriff and Rafael Palmeiro had nearly identical careers.
Their Hall of Fame cases happen to share the same flaws, too.
Both only had one season with an OPS over 1.000. Neither finished in the top three in the MVP voting during any season. Most damningly, they were never considered among the best players in baseball. In fact, they could rarely even be considered among the best players in baseball at their own position. Other first basemen and DH-types of the era were simply better, like Albert Pujols, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Edgar Martinez, Todd Helton, and Lance Berkman. Even players like Jason Giambi, John Olerud, and Carlos Delgado were putting up gaudy offensive numbers for a while. McGriff and Palmeiro didn't exactly distinguish themselves above the pack, and that has to do with when they played the game.
Throughout the heart of their careers, the standards of offense in baseball -- especially for first basemen -- were extremely high. While their numbers look good compared to similar Hall of Famers from different time periods, they didn't excel compared to their contemporaries in the Steroid Era. They were very good for a very long time. But they lacked a significant peak and did not meet the higher standards of their era, especially at their position.
With modern statistical metrics, this phenomena can be manifested in cold hard numbers. Adjusted-OPS, or OPS+, normalizes a player's on-base-plus-slugging total by making those crucial adjustments for ballpark and league contexts. An OPS+ of 100 is league average; every point above (or below) that represents one percentage point better (or worse) than average.
If we only use regular OPS, without consideration for context, it might appear as though Palmeiro and McGriff compare favorably to two notable Hall of Fame first basemen from a few decades ago:
Career OPS
Willie McCovey: .889
Harmon Killebrew: .884
Fred McGriff: .886
Rafael Palmeiro: .885
OPS, however, doesn't tell the whole story. OPS+ accounts for the different eras in which these players were active, and suddenly the picture changes:
Career OPS+
Willie McCovey: 147
Harmon Killebrew: 143
Fred McGriff: 134
Rafael Palmeiro: 132
McCovey's offense was 47% better than league average, and Killebrew's was 43% better. Great hitters were rarer back then, so McCovey and Killebrew were more dominant. McGriff and Palmeiro didn't rise above their peers in the same way: their offense was less than 35% better than league average. This reveals how much more common good hitters were in the Steroid Era, lessening the impact of non-elite first basemen like McGriff and Palmeiro. For some context, here are some of those contemporary players, and how their OPS+ figures stack up:
Career OPS+
Albert Pujols: 168Mark McGwire: 162
Frank Thomas: 156
Jeff Bagwell: 149
Jim Thome: 147
Edgar Martinez: 147
Lance Berkman: 146
-------rough Hall of Fame cutoff point-------
Jason Giambi: 141
Carlos Delgado: 138
David Ortiz: 138
Will Clark: 137
Fred McGriff: 134
Mo Vaughn: 132
Rafael Palmeiro: 132
It's impossible to look at McGriff and Palmeiro and see two of the best first basemen of their generation. Too many other players were just flat-out better at that job. Sure, McGriff and Palmeiro put up some gaudy career statistics. Heck, Palmeiro is one of only four players in baseball history to accumulate both 3,000 hits and 500 home runs. But the elevated offensive levels of the Steroid Era lessen the significance of those numbers. Reaching certain arbitrary milestones shouldn't equal an automatic ticket to the Hall of Fame anyway -- especially when those milestones were attained during an era in which they were simply easier to achieve.
McGriff and Palmeiro should be commended for their longevity. They just fall short of the Hall of Fame standard.
My Ballot, As of Now:
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Mike Piazza
4. Craig Biggio
5. Jeff Bagwell
6. Mark McGwire
7. Edgar Martinez
8. Tim Raines
Out: Sammy Sosa, Lee Smith, Rafael Palmeiro, Fred McGriff
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