Previewing Week 13

Last week's predictions: 10/16
Season tally: 120/175, 69%

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
This guy linked here is somehow arguing that Jay Cutler deserves MVP consideration, just because the Bears are 31-19 with him and 2-6 without him in his Chicago tenure. As if the Packers would be just dandy with Graham Harrell instead of Aaron Rodgers.
The pick: Bears.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-8)
Teams sometimes have off nights. The Packers suffered such a night against the Giants. They'll take out their frustration on the poor Vikings.
The pick: Packers.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams
This idea has been bandied about, and I like it: the 49ers keep Colin Kaepernick as their starting quarterback, but use Alex Smith as their "closer." Teams use this idea in other sports, and even other positions in football; why not quarterback? Kaepernick's explosiveness and big-play ability helps the 49ers take the lead. Then, Smith comes in late to kill clock, where his conservative style and high completion percentage helps extend drives, take care of the ball, and secure the win. Plus opposing teams have to gameplan for two quarterbacks.
The pick: 49ers.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets (-4.5)
Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow
The pick: Tebow [Jets]

Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs
There's a dearth of upset potential this week, so this one stands out. The problem is: the 3-8 Panthers are just a lot better than their record, and the 1-10 Chiefs are a lot worse than theirs.
The pick: Panthers.

Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions (-5)
The Colts can lose this game and still have a good shot at the playoffs. We're totally headed for a dreamy Colts/Broncos, Manning/Luck first-round match-up, aren't we?
The pick: Lions.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-6)
Here's the funny thing about the Buffalo Bills. They're only 4-7. They're bad. But their rest-of-season schedule looks like this: Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jets. Only the Dolphins game is on the road. The two AFC wild cards are currently up for grabs between the 7-4 Colts and the 6-5 Bengals and Steelers. If the Bills win out, it's completely possible that a 9-7 record is good enough to finally get this franchise back to the playoffs. Of course, now they'll probably find a way to lose at home to the Jaguars.
The pick: Bills.

New England Patriots (-7.5) @ Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are only a game out of a playoff spot! All they have to do is beat the Patriots and the 49ers in back-to-back weeks to get over .500. No problem. Relevant information: the Patriots haven't lost a game in the second half of a season since 2010.
The pick: Patriots.

Houston Texans (-6.5) @ Tennessee Titans
For a 10-1 team, the Texans don't exactly inspire a lot of confidence. They were outplayed by Jacksonville at home and should have lost to Detroit on Thanksgiving. Not to disrespect the hapless Titans, but Houston should be worried about getting exposed by the Patriots in Foxborough next week.
The pick: Texans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos (-7)
The Buccaneers have the best run defense and worst pass defense in football. If the Broncos do anything except let Peyton Manning air it out all afternoon, they're doing it wrong.
The pick: Broncos.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-8)
If Pittsburgh couldn't beat the Ravens at home with Byron Leftwich, then they can't beat the Ravens on the road with Charlie Batch.
The pick: Ravens.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders
You know your franchise is in trouble when: you're playing host to the Browns and you're the underdog.
The pick: Browns.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ San Diego Chargers
The Bengals are what they are at this point. They've beaten the Giants but lost to the Dolphins and Browns. They've enjoyed a pair of three-game winning streaks but have also suffered a four-game losing streak. They are what they are. Meh.
The pick: Bengals.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)
The Philadelphia Phillies have won more recently than the Philadelphia Eagles. After a 3-1 start, it's really looking like the Eagles will finish 3-13.
The pick: Cowboys.

New York Giants (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins
Finally, a great Monday night game after a slew of average ones. Interestingly, the Redskins are closer to first place than any other second-place team in football except for the Packers. This is a meaningful game. And having picked the boring favorite in every single game so far, here's my last chance for an upset.
The pick: Redskins.