1. A Remade Rotation: In 2009 and 2010, John Lannan was the Nationals' Opening Day starter. Just two years later, at the conclusion of spring training this year, Lannan was optioned to the minor leagues because there wasn't a spot for him in the rotation. Over those two years, the Nationals brought up three starters drafted by the team (Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler), signed one in free agency (Edwin Jackson), and traded for another one (Gio Gonzalez). Jackson has the highest ERA among the five starters, and his is 3.77. Gonzalez is in the conversation for NL Cy Young as a 20-game winner. Even with Strasburg shut down for the season, the Nats still have Lannan to replace him. This was the best rotation in baseball.
2. A Shutdown Bullpen: Just like the Reds, the Nats supplemented their strong rotation with a surprisingly great bullpen. Drew Storen has returned from injury to reclaim the closer role, which was held admirably by Tyler Clippard (32 saves). Craig Stammen, Ryan Mattheus, and Sean Burnett each appeared in at least 54 games and posted sub-3.00 ERAs.
3. Veterans Bouncing Back: The three players in the middle of the Nationals lineup were all coming off disappointing and/or injury-filled seasons in 2011. They all successfully turned it around. Adam LaRoche hit 31 home runs after only playing in 43 games last year. Ryan Zimmerman has been healthy enough to drive in 90+ runs at third base. Jayson Werth has missed half the season due to injury, but his OPS has risen over 100 points from last year.
4. Breakout Performances: The Nats saw three of their young position players step up. 19-year-old rookie Bryce Harper was an instant contributor, with 50 extra-base hits. The team's double-play combination, Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa, combined for 39 homers and 37 steals of their own. Desmond was one of the most clutch performers in the league, too.
5. Outlasting Adversity: The Nationals rotation stayed healthy through much of the year, but the rest of the team suffered through more than their fair share of injuries. Werth, Desmond, and Michael Morse all missed significant time on offense. Their Opening Day catcher was lost for the season after 25 games. Closer Drew Storen missed most of the year. The Nationals' ability to patch these holes internally with a strong bench helped them keep winning consistently throughout the season.
So what was the Nationals' formula? It was very similar to the Reds' formula (only except for the fact that the Nats were more willing to spend on free agents). Both teams built effective, durable rotations supplemented by good bullpens and above-average offenses. Both teams used their prospect depth to trade for young aces over the offseason, the Reds with Mat Latos and the Nationals with Gio Gonzalez. Both teams have just one cornerstone offensive player (Joey Votto and Ryan Zimmerman) and surrounded that guy with quality players.
But most of all like the Reds, the core of Washington's roster was homegrown. Some would say: sure, how hard can it be to draft Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper? While it's true that the Nats chose the two perfect years to pick #1 overall in the draft, allowing them to draft two generational talents, there's more to it than that. The team also hit on Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler in the rotation; Drew Storen in the bullpen; Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa in the infield. Other teams had chances to draft those guys, but the Nats were the ones who grabbed them.
Another key component of the Nationals' success: great trades. It starts with Gio Gonzalez. The Nats gave up four premium prospects to get him from Oakland and most analysts were skeptical of the move because, they argued, Gonzalez couldn't be a true ace with such iffy control. All Gonzalez did with his new team was lower his walks, increase his strikeouts, and win 20 games. Washington has also traded for catcher Wilson Ramos, left fielder Michael Morse, and bullpen aces Tyler Clippard and Ryan Mattheus without giving up anything of note.
The Nationals' wild success in the draft and on the trade market reveals their secret to turning around this sorry franchise: they're supremely good at scouting and evaluating talent. In other words, the scouts they employ are most likely more competent than the ones in "Moneyball." The reward has been a dominant pitching staff, several cornerstone position players, and very soon, the NL East title.
Washington's Formula: Healthy and elite starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and balanced lineup achieved through homegrown talent and superb talent evaluation.
Cincinnati's Formula: Healthy starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and balanced lineup achieved through homegrown talent and low payroll.
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