On Thursday afternoon, the Reds trotted out a lineup featuring Miguel Cairo, Xavier Paul, and something called Didi Gregorious. It was a lineup one would expect to see from a team long removed from playoff contention. But by beating the Cubs 5-3 with their B-team squad, the Cincinnati Reds moved to 91-59 and clinched the first playoff spot of the 2012 season. Entering the season, most people thought the NL Central would be closely contested deep into the final month of the season, but the Reds may end up winning it by double-digit games. Here are the five biggest factors behind Cincinnati's fantastic season.
1. A Healthy Starting Rotation: It is truly stunning that the five starters in the Reds' original rotation have accounted for all but one of the team's starts this year. Congratulations to Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake, all of whom will make over 30 starts this season. Cueto will be in consideration for the Cy Young with another sub-3.00 ERA season.
2. An Unheralded Rookie: Sharing a league with Bryce Harper is tough, but Reds infielder Todd Frazier was the better player in 2012 and might win the Rookie of the Year award. His .284/.345/.517 line was crucial for a team that lost both Joey Votto and Scott Rolen to injuries at the corner infield positions.
3. A Free Agent Bargain: After a disastrous 2011, Ryan Ludwick's career was on life support. The Reds picked him up on a one-year deal and were criticized for giving playing time to an over-the-hill veteran instead of a youngster like Frazier. At the moment, Ludwick has a better OPS than Albert Pujols. The outfielder has hit 26 home runs while slugging .532. The Reds caught lightning in a bottle here.
4. A Shutdown Bullpen: The Reds signed Ryan Madson to be their closer for 2012. When they lost him for the season before he even threw a pitch, the assumption was that the Reds bullpen would take a massive hit. Instead, it was probably the best in baseball. The dominance of replacement closer Aroldis Chapman has been well-documented (he's striking out nearly half the batters he's facing and his WHIP is below 0.80). The Reds also had five other relievers throw at least 50 innings, and the highest ERA among them was 3.18. That doesn't even include midseason trade acquisition Jonathan Broxton, a former closer now pitching the 7th and 8th innings for the Reds. This unit will be a huge asset come playoff time.
5. Homegrown Players: The Reds are great at developing their own talent, which they use in two different ways. They have developed young players into long-time starters, like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Johnny Cueto. They also use their prospects to trade for more pieces, which they did this year to get number-two starter Mat Latos and setup men Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton. And it's not like the pipeline is drying up; despite those trades, the Reds still had talented rookies Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, Chris Heisey, and Devin Mesoraco to plug into the lineup in 2012. Cincinnati's only notable free agent signings this offseason were Ryan Madson, who didn't pitch at all, and Ryan Ludwick, who came dirt-cheap. And the Reds are massively outperforming teams that spent tens of millions of dollars, like the Angels, Tigers, and Marlins. This is how you thrive in a small market.
Different teams find success in different ways. Cincinnati's formula was a simple one. They only had three superstars: one in the lineup (Votto), one in the rotation (Cueto), and one in the bullpen (Chapman). To fill in the rest of the roster, they didn't spend big money on free agents. Instead, they found effective complementary players in their own system and on the trade market. Their reward was an NL Central title despite a sub-$90 million payroll.
As more teams clinch playoff spots, their methods of crafting a winning roster will be examined too, and we'll see which strategies were the most successful. It's hard to beat what the Reds have accomplished here.
Cincinnati's Formula: Healthy starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and balanced lineup achieved through homegrown talent and low payroll.
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