On this date last year, the Rays were four games out of the AL wild card, and the Cardinals were 4.5 games out in the NL. There were 15 games to go but both teams made up their deficits to make the playoffs. This year, as of conclusion of play on September 13th, 18 teams are within 4.5 games of a playoff spot. Eighteen, with about 20 games to go. Of course, there are only 10 spots available. In the American League, all three divisions are still in play and in the National League, it's the wild cards that are completely up for grabs.
Race #1: The American League East
The Participants: New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles
The Situation: Baltimore and New York are tied atop the AL East at 81-62. They have no remaining head-to-head contests.
The Rundown: So this race is down to a 19-game mini-season. On the one hand, the Orioles are playing better baseball, and have been since August. However, health and scheduling slightly favor the Yankees. The O's have lost Nick Markakis and perhaps Jason Hammel for the season. Inversely, New York is putting Andy Pettitte and Ivan Nova back into their rotation over the next several days and Mark Teixeira should return before the final week of the season. As for the schedules: each team has one series remaining against the Athletics and Rays, but the Yankees are at home for both while the O's are on the road. The Yankees also get 10 combined games against the Blue Jays and Twins. In spite of all this, counting out Baltimore at this point would be beyond foolish. The loser of this division will still be in strong position to compete for a wild card. As an aside: the Rays are still within three, but what makes their mission challenging is the need to jump over BOTH the Yanks and O's.
Race #2: The American League Central
The Participants: Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers
The Situation: The Sox, 76-66, are currently a game up on the Tigers in the Central. With Thursday's game rained out, there is only one more head-to-head matchup remaining between these teams.
The Rundown: This is a high-stakes race, because unlike in Race #1, the loser probably won't get a wild card as a consolation (the Tigers, for example, are currently 5.5 games back of the second wild card). Both teams have easy schedules, but Detroit's is a cakewalk: a whopping sixteen of their remaining 20 games are against the Royals, Twins, and Indians. Comparatively, the White Sox have only twelve such games, and must also play seven combined against the desperate Angels and Rays. If the Tigers can't leapfrog the Sox over the next three weeks, they'll only have themselves to blame.
Race #3: The American League West
The Participants: Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics
The Situation: The Rangers (85-58) are currently three games up on the A's. They still have seven remaining games to play against each other.
The Rundown: This is the least dramatic race in the AL, given the Rangers' three-game cushion and the fact that both teams are very likely making the playoffs regardless of who finishes first. What makes this interesting is the seven games they have left to play against each other, including a three-game set in Oakland to conclude the season. The A's must also play nine against the Orioles, Yankees, and Tigers, so their road is treacherous. But if they're still within three games entering that final series, anything can happen.
Race #4: The Two American League Wild Cards
The Participants: Losers of Races #1 and #3, Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays
The Situation: The Athletics currently own the first wild card at 82-61. The second one would right now belong to the loser of the AL East, either the Orioles or Yankees, both of whom are a game back of the A's. The Angels are 3.5 games back and the Rays are 4 back. The Tigers should be acknowledged at 5.5 back given their easy schedule.
The Rundown: Right now, the wild cards look like safety nets for whichever two teams lose the AL East and West. The Angels and Rays are trying to change that, though recent developments have seriously hurt their efforts. The Angels just lost three of four at home to the A's and the Rays were swept in three straight at Baltimore. Things now don't look great for either of these two. The Angels missed their chance to slow down Oakland this week, and now have to play six against the Rangers and three against the White Sox. The Rays at least still have games against their wild card competition: a series against the Yankees this weekend and the last series of the season against the Orioles. They also get nine combined against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, but must play a four-game set at the White Sox, too. Unlike other teams that control their own destinies, LA and Tampa each need at least one other team to collapse in order to have a real chance.
Race #4: The First National League Wild Card
The Participants: Atlanta Braves
The Situation: The Braves, 81-63 and 5 games up in the first wild card, would have to completely collapse just to fall into the second wild card spot, let alone fall out of the playoffs entirely.
The Rundown: Atlanta is essentially a lock to win this wild card, which would allow them to host a one-game playoff against whoever wins the second one. So the only reason why this counts as an important "race" is because these very Braves showed us how good they are at September collapses last year. With nine games left against the hapless Marlins and Mets, though, there's no almost no way that history repeats itself. Right?
Race #5: The Second National League Wild Card
The Participants: Like, everyone: St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Situation: This is the best playoff race out there, and may very well come down to the final day of the regular season. It's very unlikely that the Braves relinquish their hold on Race #4, so only one of these six teams is making the playoffs. At the moment, the Cardinals (76-68) have a tenuous one-game hold on this playoff spot, followed by the Dodgers (2 games back), Pirates (3 GB), Brewers (3.5 GB), Phillies (4 GB), and Diamondbacks (4.5 GB).
The Rundown: Whew. This one is wild. The Cardinals looked to be in pretty good shape until they were swept in San Diego; their weekend series with the Dodgers is crucial. Those very same Dodgers are pretty ice-cold too, 6-12 since the huge trade with Boston. And after St. Louis, they have to embark on a brutal nine-game road trip to Washington, Cincinnati, and San Diego. Ouch. But no one is feeling worse right now than the Pirates, who have dropped 16 of their last 21. Despairing Pittsburgh fans can only point to 11 remaining games against the Cubs, Astros, and Mets as reasons for optimism. While the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Pirates have wasted chance after chance, the Brewers and Phillies have risen from the dead to rejoin the race. Neither has much of a chance to leapfrog three other teams, but all they have to do is just keep winning games. They're playing with house money and there's no pressure. The disappointing Diamondbacks may only be 4.5 games out, but with five viable contenders ahead of them and six remaining games against the San Francisco Giants, there's virtually no chance.
There they are: 18 teams for 10 spots. Considering that the Nationals, Reds, and Giants are locks to win their respective NL divisions, it's actually more like 15 teams for 7 spots. If forced to guess, I'd say that the AL divisions are won by the Yankees, Tigers, and Rangers, and the wild card one-game playoffs are Orioles-Athletics and Cardinals-Braves. Of course, we did learn last year that a lot of crazy stuff can happen in 20 baseball games.
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