The Trade, and What It Means

Warning: long-winded rant below

Baseball has never seen a trade like this before. Two of the sport's premier franchises--one hitting reboot on a failed vision, the other gearing up for a new dynasty. Three big-name, high-priced stars. And a quarter of a billion dollars in salary. It even happened in August, which almost never sees any significant trades, making it all the more shocking.

In the history of baseball, only one player with $100 million left on his contract had ever been traded: Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees. Two such players were involved in this deal alone. The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired the nine-digit-salaried Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, along with Josh Beckett [and Nick Punto, but who cares besides Mrs. Punto] from the Boston Red Sox for five players you've never heard of. In the midst of a pennant race, the revamped and very-rich Dodgers acquired three recognizable stars when anyone could have claimed them on waivers, but didn't. This is the kind of trade that gets vetoed in fantasy baseball leagues.

And yet, in real baseball, the Dodgers were kind of fleeced by the Red Sox.

Let's start at the beginning. The Dodgers did this because they wanted Adrian Gonzalez. Their incumbent first baseman, James Loney, was one of the worst in baseball (.646 OPS and four homers). Gonzalez's OPS is over 200 points better and that sizable upgrade could prove to be the difference in a tight playoff race. The money, obviously, was no object. Gonzalez is actually reasonably paid compared to the Fielders and Pujolses of the world; he's only signed through age 36 and has about $130 million left on his deal. There won't be any better options on the free agent market this offseason, either. Gonzalez is a pretty good value for the next six seasons and a nice target for LA.

But the Red Sox had no incentive to give away Adrian Gonzalez. The Dodgers couldn't offer any players in return that would equal his production. However, the Dodgers could offer the one trade chip that Boston actually needed and couldn't find anywhere else: the ability to absorb bad contracts. So Boston asked LA to take Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett, too.

Those two players are the opposite of desirable. Beckett is owed over $30 million between the next two seasons and will continue to be worth only a tiny fraction of that, even in the NL West. Crawford is even worse. He's still owed more than $100 million over the next five years, through 2017. He just had Tommy John surgery, meaning he's already done for 2012 and will probably miss some of 2013 too. And he's just not good anymore, as his .260/.292/.419 line with the Red Sox indicates. He's bad, getting older, and drastically overpaid. This might be the worst contract in baseball. The Sox front office probably thought they would never be able to unload it.

So the Red Sox jumped at the opportunity for a trade. They attached the toxic Crawford and Beckett contracts to Gonzalez's hip, demanding that the Dodgers take both in any deal for Gonzalez. They understood that they were killing Gonzalez's trade value. They understood that they wouldn't get much in return from the Dodgers for their stud first baseman. They were okay with it. They just wanted Crawford, Beckett, and their contracts off the books more than anything.

Except: unexpectedly, the Dodgers did give the Red Sox something valuable in return.

They actually surrendered a five-player package for Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett, and Punto. And at least three of those players might have significant value down the road.

The first of these players is Jerry Sands, a 24-year-old first baseman/outfielder who has destroyed minor league pitching in his career. Maybe he can't hit major league pitching and becomes Matt LaPorta, but maybe he becomes a useful platoon player.

The second player is 22-year-old right-hander Allen Webster, currently in Double-A. The prospect guys rank him as one of the three or four best pitching prospects in the Dodgers' farm system and give him the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter in the majors.

The third player is 23-year-old right-hander Rubby de la Rosa, who might be ready to pitch in the majors next year. Like Webster, he has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter when healthy.

Why did the Dodgers have to give up these players? (I understand Sands, because he now has no position with LA, but not Webster and de la Rosa.) In addition to assuming the $130 million on Gonzalez's contract, the Dodgers are essentially mailing 130 million additional dollars to the Red Sox by freeing them of Crawford and Beckett. That seems like enough of a payment to get Gonzalez (who, it shouldn't be forgotten, isn't exactly cheap, is declining into his 30's, and went unclaimed by all American League teams on waivers for those reasons). Nope. The Dodgers were just desperate.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, came out of this blockbuster extremely well. They freed up $250 million. They dumped players who were rumored of being insubordinate. They rid themselves of two onerous contracts and still got back some potentially valuable pieces. Losing Gonzalez hurts, but he's not irreplaceable. The Red Sox may not make the playoffs in 2013. But now their long-term situation looks a lot brighter. They can go a lot of different ways. Sign Jacoby Ellsbury to an extension that might not have been possible with Crawford on the payroll? Trade him for more pitching? Sign Michael Bourn in free agency? See what young guys like Ryan Kalish and Jerry Sands have to offer? The Sox got a mulligan on a few very bad decisions that were thought irreversible just last week. New management now has a chance to bid the Theo Epstein era a final farewell and give this team a new vision.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers made themselves better in the short-term with this trade. But unlike the Hanley Ramirez trade, which was fantastic, I think they overpaid. They'll feel the repercussions down the road. They weakened their farm system; they traded away potentially two above-average starters; they assumed a quarter-of-a-billion dollars in payroll for a good first baseman and two expensive lottery tickets. Their payroll for next year is already up to almost $190 million. In 2017, they'll have over $80 million invested in just four players: Gonzalez, Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. That could look very very ugly. This outlook doesn't even include an extension for ace Clayton Kershaw, which will surely be very expensive, too.

The counter-argument to this would be "But the Dodgers are literally bathing in cash now!!" Sure. But just because you have $250 million lying around doesn't mean that you get a free pass for spending it unwisely. Is buying Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett really the BEST way to spend $250 million in baseball today? How about buying those three players, and giving up useful prospects in the process?

This trade is truly one-of-a-kind. One team added three name-brand superstars and bolstered itself for a playoff run. The other team admitted defeat in 2012, blew up its roster, and didn't get any good players back. And the winner isn't who you think it is.