Thursday, August 9, 2012

The Beautiful Thing That Is the Cardinals' Offense

Some guy named Albert left St. Louis for the Left Coast over the winter. It hasn't affected the Cardinals one bit. Even without their franchise icon, their lineup reads like a Murderer's Row:

CF Jon Jay: Hitting over .300 with an OBP north of .380.
1B Allen Craig: 17 homers in only 70 games. Hitting just south of .300 and slugging .566.
LF Matt Holliday: Hitting .319/.400/.543 with 21 homers. An MVP candidate.
RF Carlos Beltran: 27 homers, the most RBIs in the National League, and a .545 slugging percentage.
3B David Freese: Hitting over .300 with a .371 OBP and 15 homers.
C Yadier Molina: Also hitting over .300 and slugging over .500 with 16 homers.

The middle infielders hit at the bottom of the order, but it's not like Rafael Furcal is a slouch. The reserves are very strong, too: Skip Schumaker is yet another Cardinal hitting over .300 and Matt Carpenter's season line sits at .299/.377/.492. Heck, this team should have Lance Berkman too, but the slugger is back on the DL. Actually, the current lineup is so good that Berkman probably wouldn't even have a spot in it right now, unless he can learn to play second base.

Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals have been one of the three best run-scoring teams in baseball. Only the Yankees and Rangers (AL teams that benefit from their ballparks and DHs) have higher team OPSes than the Cardinals. Their team on-base percentage is the best in the land. Add it all up and the Cards have outscored opponents by over 100 runs, the best differential in baseball.

And they wouldn't make the playoffs if the season ended today.

St. Louis sits five-and-a-half games behind the Reds in the NL Central, and three games back of the Pirates for the second wild card spot. It's nearly unfathomable to think that the Orioles (outscored by nearly 50 runs this season) would make the playoffs today while the Cardinals (150 runs better) would be on the outside looking in.

What's gone wrong for St. Louis? The bullpen has been fairly miserable. So is their record in one-run games. A lot of it has to do with bad luck.

However: their front three of Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, and Lance Lynn is quite good. Jaime Garcia is on the way back. The offense is obviously clicking. There's still 50-odd games to go. As awesome as the Reds and Pirates have been recently, they've played a bit over their heads while the Cards have underperformed. That's about to be corrected: I think St. Louis is about to go on a crazy hot streak to end the season. They'll make the playoffs, either via the division title or a wild card, and once they're in, they'll become the instant favorites to reach the World Series again. If I was a National League team, I would be very afraid of the Redbirds and their scary, scary offense.

No comments:

Post a Comment