Hamilton's Paradox

On Tuesday, Texas outfielder Josh Hamilton mercilessly victimized the Orioles by becoming the 16th player in MLB history to hit four home runs in one game. With all the early-season hoopla surrounding Matt Kemp, it was easy to forget about Hamilton's equally-impressive start, until now. The Rangers star has suddenly surpassed his Dodgers counterpart in home runs, 14 to 12, and the rest of his line looks like this: .406./458/.840, 36 RBIs, 25 runs scored. And he missed a series against Toronto with a bad back. He's unstoppable. It's been true for a few years now: when Hamilton is in the lineup, he's the best hitter in baseball.

But there's the kicker: when he's in the lineup. For the past three years, Hamilton has played in 89, 133, and 121 games. He's guaranteed to spend some time on the shelf every season and the constant lurking of his substance-abuse problems provides another concern. At 30, he's not getting any younger, either.

Now, Josh Hamilton is going to be a free agent at the end of 2012. He's on pace for another monster year. The market for position players is going to be very weak. The newly-reborn Dodgers might love to pair Hamilton with Kemp and Andre Ethier in an All-World outfield. The bidding war is going to be crazy. So unless Texas manages to lock him up during the season, Hamilton is going to make himself a huge pile of money this winter. Heck, Jayson Werth earned $126 million. Carl Crawford got $142 million. Hamilton is easily the superior player. What kind of unspeakably huge contract is he going to pull down?

We don't know, and it doesn't matter. Whoever gives Hamilton such a deal will be taking a fairly massive gamble, one that is highly unlikely to pay off. Long-term, big-money contracts for safe, durable players rarely provide good return. If even baseball's Iron Men break down physically as they enter their 30's, how can one justify dedicating a massive chunk of team payroll to Josh Hamilton, who is already 30, gets hurt constantly, and recently went through his second alcohol relapse? Committing so much money to such a risky asset is brutally irresponsible and shortsighted.

Therein lies Hamilton's Paradox. Josh Hamilton might be the most talented baseball player on the planet, a one-man wrecking crew who accomplished one of the game's most legendary Herculean feats last night. Yet the team that signs Hamilton to a long-term contract this winter will be making a mistake. It's remarkable that such an elite MVP player in his prime can simultaneously represent such a hopelessly reckless investment. Who will decide to tether their fortunes to Josh Hamilton's gifted, hurting body for the rest of the decade? You should hope it won't be the people running your favorite team.