MLB Season Preview: San Diego Padres

Two years after winning 90 games, the Padres might be the worst team in baseball.

If one were to poll 100 casual fans, would any of them know
who this Padre is? Anyway, it's Chase Headley. Or is it...?

Offense: San Diego's problems stem from a punchless lineup that plays half its games in a cavernous ballpark. Last season, the Padres hit the fewest home runs and had the second-worst slugging percentage in baseball. Things won't get better this year. There's no power to be found at first base or the corner outfield spots, at least until Carlos Quentin gets healthy. Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett are finished as big league-caliber hitters, and are just taking away at-bats from a potentially solid youngster like Andy Parrino. The team's three best hitters (Chase Headley, Cameron Maybin, and Nick Hundley) might hit 7th, 8th, and 9th in some American League lineups. What little hope the offense has lies in the two advanced hitting prospects acquired from Cincinnati in the Mat Latos trade: first-baseman Yonder Alonso and catcher Yasmani Grandal.

Cory Luebke actually had the 4th-best
strikeout rate in baseball last year.

Pitching: The Padres' competitive future rests in their ability to prevent runs, and they're only okay at doing that. The starting rotation has already been hurt by injuries: Dustin Moseley is out for the year and Tim Stauffer starts the season on the DL. And just relying on those guys to provide innings in the first place was bad enough. By default, the staff ace is Cory Luebke, who has quietly been a very effective pitcher since last June. But there's little else of note. Clayton Richard and the enigma of Edinson Volquez are, at best, perfectly average starters who would fail in a less pitcher-friendly environment. Minor league arms like Joe Wieland and Anthony Bass will surely get their chances. Huston Street is an expensive closer who might be best served as trade bait given the number of other bullpen options available, like dominant setup man Luke Gregerson and recent trade acquisitions Andrew Cashner and Brad Boxberger.

Yonder Alonso's broad skill set
also includes the power of levitation.

Breakout Candidates: Because the Reds apparently already have a decent first baseman, they felt comfortable trading top prospect Yonder Alonso to San Diego. Alonso showed off his pure hitting skills at the end of last year, when he hit .330/.398/.545. On the mound, the Padres are excited to see more of promising 27-year-old Cory Luebke. In 139.2 innings last season, Luebke posted a 3.29 ERA and struck out 154 batters. With a full season in Petco, he could jump into the elite tier of National League starters. But would anyone notice?

3 Key Questions: Will Alonso and Grandal develop into the hitters the Padres so desperately need? Is anyone going to hit 20 home runs? And how long before the Padres give up on 2012 and just play the young guys?

Best Case Scenario: The Headley/Maybin/Hundley trio take the "next step," Orlando Hudson is released so Andy Parrino can play every day, Alonso and Grandal help pick up the offense, the Volquez reclamation project works out...and the Padres still only finish in fourth.

Worst Case Scenario: The unproven rotation gets shellacked, Alonso and Grandal show nothing, the corpse of Orlando Hudson remains on the roster, Huston Street gets hurt before he can be traded, and the Padres finish last in the NL West with the worst record in baseball.

Predicted Finish: With no offense and barely any pitching, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Padres don't finish last. But with the best farm system in baseball, the Padres at least have a good future to look forward to.