MLB Season Preview: Cincinnati Reds

A couple of bold offseason moves have the Reds firmly in 'win now' mode.

Votto will be paid $20 million to play
for the Reds until he's 75.

Offense: The Reds are an intriguing mix of elite sluggers, exciting prospects, and broken-down veterans. Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips are known quantities; they're two of baseball's best players at their respective positions. Jay Bruce offers a ton of power even if he never develops into the offensive superstar he was hyped to be. It would be nice if Drew Stubbs didn't lead the league in strikeouts, but he remains a speedy center fielder with pop. How the rest of the lineup shakes out may come down to whether Dusty Baker doles out playing time to youngsters or veterans. Will promising shortstop Zack Cozart keep his job all season? Who has the upper hand in left field: the power of Chris Heisey or the corpse of Ryan Ludwick? When Scott Rolen inevitably gets hurt, will his at-bats go to Todd Frazier or Miguel Cairo? And will catching duties be entrusted to potential Rookie of the Year Devin Mesoraco, or platoon partner Ryan Hanigan?

Fortunately for Mat Latos, Dusty Baker has a spotless
track record when it comes to handling young aces.
Just ask Mark Prior, as soon as he comes out of his coma.

Pitching: The Reds gutted the farm system to acquire 24-year-old right-hander Mat Latos, who should be overpowering enough to alleviate concerns about the transition from spacious Petco to homer-happy Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati really needed Latos, because there isn't another pitcher like him on the staff. Johnny Cueto's 2.31 ERA is due for some serious regression towards his 3.83 career figure. Mike Leake and Homer Bailey look like mid-rotation starters at best, and Bronson Arroyo somehow managed to surrender more home runs (46!!) than walks (45) last year. For whatever reason, the Reds are still relegating Aroldis Chapman to bullpen duty even though he has Randy Johnson upside. Hopefully Chapman will be given a chance to start at some point, especially since the presence of Sean Marshall will allow the Reds' bullpen to remain solid even after the season-ending injury to Ryan Madson.

"What's that? A lefty who hits 102 on the radar gun?
He'll be one of our best middle relievers!"

Breakout Candidates: Since he's the only rookie pretty much guaranteed playing time, Zack Cozart should be a Rookie of the Year candidate thanks to dependable defense and solid across-the-board skills. With the potential to put up bigger power numbers, Devin Mesoraco has more upside at catcher, but he may get stuck sharing at-bats with Ryan Hanigan. Aroldis Chapman could be great if he is ever freed from the purgatory of middle relief.

3 Key Questions: Can Latos lead this underwhelming pitching staff? Do Mesoraco and Cozart get enough chances to succeed in the majors? And did the Reds even notice that Chapman struck out 18 and walked two in 17 spring innings?

Best Case Scenario: Latos and Cueto are aces, Votto wins the MVP, Chapman replaces Arroyo in the rotation by May, Marshall is a dominant closer, Mesoraco and Cozart finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting, and Reds win the Central and go all the way to the World Series.

Worst Case Scenario: Latos surrenders an Arroyo-esque number of home runs, Ryan Ludwick gets 200 at-bats to hit .230, Chapman becomes the permanent left-handed specialist, Votto offers to void his massive contract if he could just please get the heck out of Cincinnati, and the Reds finish fourth, without a playoff berth.

Predicted Finish: The Reds aren't spectacular. But they've got a solid, balanced team with major-league-ready prospects even after the farm system was raided. Their recent bold moves (the Latos/Marshall trades and Votto extension) would imply that they'll be willing to upgrade the team midseason if necessary. Cincinnati finishes second in the NL Central and grabs one of the wild cards.