Selection Sunday Storylines

It's finally Selection Sunday, perhaps the best day of the year. The Selection Committee will unveil the 2011-2012 NCAA Tournament bracket and the next 72 hours will be spent debating who got snubbed, which teams were overseeded, who has the toughest path to the Final Four, which top seeds are vulnerable, and which double-digit seeds can make a Cinderella run. Until then though, here's what to watch for during the Selection Show.

1. Who are the last two #1 seeds?
Kentucky and Syracuse are locked in as top seeds. But who joins them? Most would say North Carolina, and the Tar Heels are a lock if they beat Florida State in the ACC finals today. The fourth spot could go to one of four teams: Kansas, Missouri, Michigan State, or (unlikely) Ohio State. The Committtee might want to reward one of the Big 10 teams given how strong that league was. But Kansas was viewed as a #1 seed before its loss to Baylor in the Big 12 semifinals, and that loss arguably isn't bad enough to knock the Jayhawks from that spot. And how do you treat Missouri, which boasts a split with Kansas and the Big 12 tourney title?

2. For that matter, who are the #2 seeds?
Right now, it would appear that the #2 seeds are relatively easy to distribute. They belong to the three teams mentioned above who don't get a top seed, plus Duke. Will there be an upset here? Will a team like Baylor or Marquette sneak onto the two-line? Most likely not. But the difference between a 2-seed and 3-seed is quite large, so it matters a great deal.

3. Will there be a snub?
Right now, it appears like the following bubble teams did enough in the past two weeks to warrant at-large bids: N.C. State, Texas, Xavier, South Florida, Colorado State, and BYU. It would be an upset to see any of those teams miss the tournament. But with the stolen bid in the Pac-12, and the potential for another in the A-10, the bubble is shrinking. No one can be deemed safe just yet.

4. Who sneaks in?
If all the teams mentioned above make the tournament, there would still be room for another two teams or so (assuming St. Bonaventure doesn't win the A-10 tourney title). The most likely possibilities for those spots are Seton Hall, Washington, and Mississippi State. All three are very underwhelming candidates. Will they sneak in? Or will an off-the-map team like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Northwestern, or Marshall take their place?

5. How will the Selection Committee treat small-conference powers?
Drexel, Iona, Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts. All were supposed to win their conference tournaments and appear in March Madness as dangerous double-digit seeds. None succeeded. Will any of them be rewarded by the Selection Committee for dominating their mid-major conferences? Or will those last few spots be used up on the average Mississippi States of the world? Drexel has the best shot of sneaking in. Meanwhile, where will Murray State be seeded? Based on their national ranking, the Racers would be a three-seed, but based on their conference, they would be more like a seven- or eight-seed. The final number will be somewhere in the middle, likely a 5 or 6. If that ends up being the case, the Racers will be one of the most underseeded teams in the country.