MLB Season Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

Baseball's most lovable and cash-strapped underdogs enter 2011 with a low payroll but a stacked pitching staff and high expectations.

Evan Longoria is a stud, but the Rays are still
paying him in Trident Layers gum.

Offense: Last season, the Rays managed to sneak into the playoffs despite being a middle-of-the-pack offensive team. They should be better this year. Carlos Pena returns to Tampa as the first baseman to replace Casey Kotchman. Luke Scott will take Johnny Damon's place as the DH; last season broke Scott's streak of four consecutive years with at least 26 homers. The electrifying Desmond Jennings hit 10 homers and stole 20 bases in 287 at-bats last year, and has big upside in his first full season as the Rays' likely leadoff hitter and left-fielder. Next to Jennings in center-field, B.J. Upton could have a career season as a 27-year-old in a contract year. An assortment of flexible position players (like the ever-underrated Ben Zobrist), platoon candidates (Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce), and useful bench pieces (Jeff Keppinger, etc.) gives manager Joe Maddon an endless supply of lineup combinations. But the lynchpin of the lineup remains third baseman Evan Longoria, who, as a healthy 27-year old, is poised to have his best season yet.

"Big Game" James Shields: Finishes What He Starts.

Pitching: The Rays' offense may be mix-and-match, but their pitching is the crown jewel of the franchise. Few if any teams can match their rotation's blend of talent, youth, upside, and depth. The ace of the staff is its reisdent senior citizen, James Shields; the 30-year-old is coming off a season in which he struck out 225 in 249.1 innings with a 2.82 ERA and eleven complete games. When he makes his Opening Day start, he'll become the first Tampa Bay pitcher older than 30 to start a game since, astoundingly, May of 2007 (Shields actually started the streak, too, as a mere 25-year-old). David Price had a "disappointing" 2011 (3.49 ERA, 218 K's), but all his peripheral stats moved in the right direction and he should have another Cy Young-caliber year at the ripe age of 26. Jeremy Hellickson, reigning Rookie of the Year, will regress some from last season (2.95 ERA), but he's not even 25 yet. Yet the best of the lot could be 22-year-old lefty Matt Moore, who looked overpowering in last year's cameo in the majors. Either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, both capable starters, will fill out the back end of the rotation, and Triple-A is stuffed with depth. The bullpen is strong too, even if Kyle Farnsworth doesn't post a 2.18 ERA again. No pitching staff in the majors is built like this one.

Matt Moore will be terrorizing AL East hitters for a long time.

Breakout Candidates: The easy call is Matt Moore, who throws 97 mph like it's no big deal and boasts a nasty breaking ball. He's been called a left-handed Strasburg. He certainly lived up to his gaudy minor league record in his brief appearance in the majors last season, striking out 15 batters in 9.1 innings before shutting down the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of the ALDS. No other pitcher in the A.L. has his upside. Offensively, Desmond Jennings is a breakout candidate thanks to blazing speed and some pop, but he cooled off fast after a hot start to his major league career in 2011.

3 Key Questions: What will the Rays get from Carlos Pena and Luke Scott? Can they once again cobble together a bullpen on the fly? And just how good will Matt Moore be?

Best Case Scenario: Emulating the Giants of 2010, the Rays make a run to, and win, the World Series behind dominant starting pitching, clutch hitting from a cast of unlikely heroes, and the A.L. MVP, Evan Longoria.

Worst Case Scenario: Shields regresses to 2010 form, Moore isn't ready, the bullpen falls apart, the offense has too many black holes, and the penny-pinched Rays watch the rich teams compete in the playoffs.

Predicted Finish: The 2012 Rays have the pitching depth to survive the long slog through the AL East. They finish second and earn one of the league's two wild cards.