MLB Season Preview: Minnesota Twins

The Twins are looking to rebound from last year's disastrous 99-loss season.

The M&M boys don't earn 40% of the Twins'
payroll to be in the lineup 40% of the time.

Offense: The fate of Minnesota's season--and future seasons--rests on stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, who account for nearly 40% of the team's payroll. The Twins will likely look to protect Mauer's health by limiting his catching duties, which will hopefully help his declining offensive numbers. Morneau's career path may have been permanently altered by his concussion. The team desperately needs these two healthy, because the rest of the lineup is suspect after the departures of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. New additions Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham can hit, but they have their own health issues. So does Denard Span, who played in just 70 games last year. Danny Valencia slumped to a .246 average one year after an impressive debut. The Twins hope that speedster Ben Revere and right-fielder/first baseman Chris Parmelee develop into everyday players.

Ironically, Carl Pavano has become
one of baseball's most durable arms.

Pitching: There's still hope for Francisco Liriano. His outstanding spring provides hope that he can return to the ace-caliber pitcher he's always shown flashes of. And boy, do the Twins need him to bounce back, because the rest of the rotation has almost no upside. Scott Baker reached his ceiling last year (3.14 ERA); he's dealing with elbow tendinitis and has gotten pummeled this spring. Carl Pavano is a known entity at this point--he'll eat innings, and do so unspectacularly. Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis barely qualify as back-of-the-rotation filler. Outside of Liriano, the rotation lacks upside. Glen Perkins is a bright spot in the bullpen, but the closer is still Matt Capps (4.25 ERA), who's still around as a reminder of why you don't trade a promising young catcher with six years of team control for a season-and-a-half of Matt Capps.

Ben Revere is very, very fast man.

Breakout Candidates: The Twins are prepared to give a lot of young players significant playing time in 2012 to see what they've got. Ben Revere has the best chance of breaking out. He hit .267 with 34 steals in 117 games last season and provides excellent defense in the outfield. If Chris Parmelee can somehow carve out regular at-bats, he could get a chance to prove his .355/.443/.592 line in 21 games last season wasn't a fluke (even though it basically was).

3 Key Questions: How healthy will Mauer and Morneau be? Will the Twins get Francisco Liriano The Ace or Francisco Liriano The Frustrating Enigma? And can you compete for a playoff spot relying on Scott Baker and Carl Pavano as two of your three best pitchers?

Best Case Scenario: Liriano returns to ace form, Morneau sheds his post-concussion symptoms, Mauer stays healthy, and the rotation is solid enough to carry the Twins to a second-place finish.

Worst Case Scenario: Morneau isn't the same player anymore, Mauer spends half the season in the trainer's room, Liriano is finished as an effective starter, Baker crashes back to earth, and another round of crippling injuries send the Twins back to last place.

Predicted Finish: With an injury-prone lineup and perfectly average starting pitching, the Twins look like a last-place team. If they stay healthy, there's potential for a higher finish, though the playoffs are pretty much out of the question.