MLB Season Preview: Boston Red Sox

After last season's collapse, Boston's roster remains very top-heavy, but there's enough here to win the AL East.

Dustin Pedroia is the smallest and scrappiest of all
the small and scrappy middle infielders.

Offense: The Red Sox scored the most runs in the majors last season, and they'll challenge for that spot again thanks to four elite hitters at the top of the lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury may never hit 32 homers again, but he and Dustin Pedroia are elite combinations of power, speed, and patience. Adrian Gonzalez could win the MVP now that he's another year removed from shoulder surgery. And David Ortiz seems impervious to the effects of age. After that, things get a little dicey. Kevin Youkilis has to stay healthy at third base (he's averaged 111 games played over the last two seasons). Carl Crawford will try to prove that 2011 was a one-time nightmare (.255 average, 18 steals), but he's still dealing with a wrist injury. Shortstop is a black hole after Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie were traded this offseason, so Mike Aviles will likely see the most time there, unless slick-fielding Cuban prospect Jose Iglesias proves he can actually hit. Right field will be some combination of Ryan Sweeney and Ryan Kalish (once he recovers from injury), and catcher will be some combination of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Kelly Shoppach, and perhaps rookie Ryan Lavarnway. Meh. The bottom of the order isn't exactly stacked, but thanks to the top four guys, it doesn't really have to be.

Jon Lester and Josh Beckett enjoy pitching almost
as much as they enjoy fried chicken and beer.

Pitching: Like the offense, the Red Sox' pitching staff is top-heavy. Jon Lester has put together four straight seasons of at least 190 innings and sub-3.50 ERAs. Josh Beckett will likely get hurt at some point, but he's still effective when healthy (2.89 ERA in 2011). After Beckett, it again gets dicey pretty quickly. Clay Buchholz has thrown 100 innings once in his career, and missed most of last season with back woes. The 4 and 5 spots in the rotation are up for grabs, with the favorites being converted reliever Alfredo Aceves and unproven rookie Felix Doubront. Flamethrowing set-up man Daniel Bard didn't impress as a starter in spring (with an ERA over 7.00) so he may return to the bullpen. There are other veteran options, like Aaron Cook, Vincente Padilla, and eventually Daisuke Matsuzaka, but none of those names inspire much confidence. At least the bullpen remains above average: Jonathan Papelbon is in Philadelphia, but Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon were added to a unit that could also include Bard or Aceves.

The lesser-known King Felix.

Breakout Candidates: Bard was supposed to be this year's version of Alexi Ogando or C.J. Wilson, but his spring struggles have changed that. Instead, Felix Doubront could be the one who thrives in the Red Sox rotation if given the chance. He doesn't have much left to prove in the minors (over 600 innings pitched there) and he's enjoyed an excellent spring. Offensively, Ryan Lavarnway could surprise behind the plate thanks to above-average power.

3 Key Questions: Who settles in at the back of the rotation? Will a position player step up at catcher, right field, and shortstop? And is Carl Crawford really this bad?

Best Case Scenario: The starters stay healthy, the offense stays elite, Carl Crawford doesn't suck, Roy Oswalt signs midseason, and the Red Sox are world champions.

Worst Case Scenario: Beckett and Buchholz get hurt, the bottom of the lineup is miserable, Carl Crawford continues to suck, Vincente Padilla gets 15 starts, and Red Sox fans are actually heard saying, "At least we get Lackey back next year" as they watch the Yankees win the World Series.

Predicted Finish: The Sox could easily win the division. But they don't have the pitching depth of the Rays or Yankees, and the lineup is shallower than in years past.