Champ Week Update

The final round of conference tournaments begins on Thursday.

BIG WEST
The Conference: Only 26th in conference RPI, the Big West only has one team capable of playing with the big boys.
The Favorite: Long Beach State (22-8, 15-1) dominated the conference and has an outside shot of getting an at-large bid if it fails to win this tournament. The 49ers have the strongest nonconference schedule in the country--they won at Pitt and beat Xavier, and also played at San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina, and Creighton.
Other Challengers: Cal-State Fullerton beat the 49ers in the regular season finale. And UC-Santa Barbara is led by Orlando Johnson (20 ppg). Long Beach State has lost in the Big West championship game in each of the last two years.
The Pick: Long Beach State is one of the most experienced and battle-tested teams out there.

WESTERN ATHLETIC
The Conference: The WAC surprisingly ranks 12th in conference RPI, which means a team like Nevada may have a shot at an at-large bid if it loses in this tournament.
The Favorite: Nevada (25-5, 13-1) had an excellent year, only losing once within the conference. But the Wolf Pack only beat Washington out of conference, and lost their BracketBuster game to Iona. They need to win this tournament to avoid Selection Sunday drama.
Other Challengers: New Mexico State finished 12-4 in the WAC and pushed Nevada in their past meeting, thanks to star player Wendell McKines (18 ppg, 10 rpg). Idaho finished in third and was the only team to beat the Wolf Pack in conference play. And Utah State has been a tough out recently, winning two of the past three WAC tournaments.
The Pick: Nevada needs this more than any other team does.

MOUNTAIN WEST
The Conference: A few months ago, the Mountain West looked to be one of the country's strongest conferences, but it's been very muddled of late. Still, it places fifth in the conference RPI rankings, and features three tournament locks and a bubble squad.
The Favorite: Well...there isn't one. New Mexico (24-6, 12-4) and San Diego State 24-6, 12-4) tied atop the conference with identical records. UNLV (25-7, 9-5) might be the most talented of the three and boasts a win over North Carolina. All three of those teams have beaten up on each other, and all three have a few questionable conference losses.
Other Challengers: Colorado State has wins over each of the top three teams and is trying to make its case to the Selection Committee. The Rams have been plauged by road woes, though. TCU has some big wins as well and could easily pull off some upsets.
Bubble Matchups: Colorado State can't afford to lose to TCU in the first round. And a win gives them a chance to knock off San Diego State for the second time.
The Pick: UNLV is the most talented team in the conference and has the most March upside.

SEC
The Conference: Kentucky's dominant one-loss season helped the SEC place 4th in the conference RPI rankings. It wasn't a particularly strong year for the conference, but three other teams are tourney locks and two more are bubble candidates.
The Favorite: Obviously Kentucky (30-1, 16-0), which ran through the SEC undefeated, has the best chance of winning this tourney. The six-man rotation of Marquis Teague, Darius Miller, Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, and Anthony Davis is basically unfair.
Other Challengers: Vanderbilt gave Kentucky the most problems during the regular season with its veteran experience and excellent backcourt. Florida can play with anyone, but relies on making threes and doesn't play much defense. Mississippi State may be the most talented non-Kentucky team in the conference, but has been terribly inconsistent. Alabama is a quiet threat to win a few games.
Bubble Matchups: Quick--who's the two-seed in the SEC tournament? Not Florida or Vandy, but...Tennessee. The Volunteers, who swept Florida and also beat Vandy and UConn, are making a late charge at an at-large bid. They need to beat the winner of the Ole Miss/Auburn game, and probably go even further in the tourney to be taken seriously. Mississippi State is another bubble team, but looks to be pretty safe unless it loses to Georgia in the first round (a distinct possibility).
The Pick: Kentucky is the best team in the conference and in the country.

ACC
The Conference: It was a down year for the ACC, but it still finished 6th in the conference RPI rankings and features two Final Four contenders. Two other teams are tourney locks and two more are trying to fight their way in.
The Favorite: North Carolina (27-4, 14-2) hasn't lost since the Austin Rivers Game, with four impressive road wins in that span: Miami, N.C. State, Virginia, and Duke. The Tar Heels have the best frontcourt in the country, an elite point guard, and a top-five draft pick in Harrison Barnes.
Other Challengers: Duke went undefeated on the road in ACC play and is looking to get back in the conversation for a #1 seed. Florida State destroyed UNC at home and also beat Duke in Cameron, so they're impossible to ignore. Seeing Virginia, N.C. State, or Miami in the final would be a surprise.
Bubble Matchups: A first-round loss by N.C. State (to Boston College) or Miami (to Georgia Tech) would keep the loser out of the NCAA tournament. But since neither has a great at-large profile, N.C. State needs to beat Virginia and Miami should beat Florida State if either is serious about sneaking into March Madness.
The Pick: North Carolina is getting hot at just the right time.

BIG 10
The Conference: First in conference RPI, some say the Big 10 is the best league in the country, and it's certainly the deepest, with five teams ranked nationall. And after all, the #5 seed has beaten three top-five teams this season. Six teams are NCAA tourney locks and Northwestern is trying to play its way in.
The Favorite: At the moment, it's probably Ohio State (25-6, 13-5) even though the Buckeyes are the 3-seed. Their win at Michigan State was a big statement.
Other Challengers: Michigan State is the 1-seed and features do-it-all big man Draymond Green and stifling interior defense. Michigan tied for first place in the conference and beat both the Buckeyes and Spartans, though it remains to be seen how the Wolverines will play away from home. Indiana has a dynamic offense and can beat anyone, but has the same road concerns as Michigan. Wisconsin and Purdue are threats to win games, too.
Bubble Matchups: Northwestern is tanatalizingly close to its first-ever tournament appearance, which means a first-round loss to Minnesota would be devastating. A win gives them another crack at beating Michigan, which one imagines would seal the deal for the long-suffering Wildcats.
The Pick: Michigan State's defense, toughness, and coaching gives the Spartans the edge.