Saturday, March 10, 2012

Blind Résumés

Selection Sunday is closing fast, and most team's at-large profiles are set, pending some conference tournament results. And to make objective decisions about the fates of bubble teams, the body of work is all that matters. Which of these teams deserves a spot in the field of 68, and which are NIT-bound?

Team A
Record: 21-10, 14-4 and first-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 69
Strength of Schedule: 87
Notable wins: Arizona (twice), Oregon
Notable losses: South Dakota State
Conference Tourney: 0-1 (quarterfinals exit)
Rundown: The average computer numbers aren't helped by a lack of quality wins. This team played some difficult nonconference games, but didn't win any--its best out-of-conference win might be Georgia State. The first-round exit from the conference tournament to the 8th-place team is ugly. The only good part of this profile is the first-place finish.
Team A's Identity: Washington. It doesn't look like Huskies really deserve a bid, but they might get one anyway--just because it would be hard to leave out the Pac-12 regular season champ.

Team B
Record: 20-14, 12-6 and sixth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 47
Strength of Schedule: 29
Notable wins: Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Louisville
Notable losses: VCU, Old Dominion, Penn State, Auburn
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (quarterfinals exit)
Rundown: There aren't many quality wins, and there's no lack of questionable losses. But the computer numbers are good, and Team B is playing its best basketball at the right time.
Team B's Identity: South Florida. Right on the bubble. The fact that their two best wins were against the two teams now playing in the Big East championship doesn't hurt. The Bulls pass the eye test, but there's a scenario in which the Selection Committee omits them.

Team C
Record: 20-12, 9-9 and sixth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 43
Strength of Schedule: 17
Notable wins: Temple, Iowa State (twice), Kansas State
Notable losses: Oregon State, N.C. State
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (semifinals exit)
Rundown: Like South Florida, Team C has good computer numbers but only a handful of quality wins. The biggest difference? Team C only has the one bad loss, to Oregon State.
Team C's Identity: Texas. Right on the bubble. The quarterfinal victory over Iowa State was critical, though, and you can't fault them for losing to Missouri in the semis. Given the general weakness of the bubble, this is one of the stronger bodies of work.

Team D
Record: 18-13, 8-10 and seventh-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 52
Strength of Schedule: 8
Notable wins: Seton Hall, Michigan State
Notable losses: Minnesota (twice)
Conference Tourney: 0-1 (first-round exit)
Rundown: The excellent computer numbers aren't backed up by Team D's 1-10 record against the RPI top 50. There wasn't anything great in nonconference play, either. Its claim to fame is no bad losses, and one win over Michigan State. That doesn't scream 'tournament team.'
Team D's Identity: Northwestern. By all rights, the school probably shouldn't be in the field of 68.

Team E
Record: 19-11, 9-7 and fourth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 48
Strength of Schedule: 59
Notable wins: Duke, Florida State
Notable losses: Ole Miss, N.C. State (twice)
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (quarterfinals exit)
Rundown: Like many bubble teams, there's nothing to point at in the nonconference schedule. Team E is living off two big wins, and those two losses to another bubble team hurt.
Team E's Identity: Miami. The Hurricanes will likely miss the tournament after failing to beat Florida State in the ACC quarterfinals.

Team F
Record: 27-6, 16-2 and first-place in a non-Big Six conference
RPI: 64
Strength of Schedule: 247
Notable wins: VCU, Cleveland State
Notable losses: Norfolk State, Georgia State, Delaware
Conference Tourney: 2-1 (lost in finals)
Rundown: A mid-major that failed to win its conference tournament despite an extended stretch of winning. The strength of schedule is obviously hurt by the conference.
Team F's Identity: Drexel. The Dragons are in a similar situation to what VCU experienced last year. It will come down to whether the Selection Committee prefers a ninth or tenth from the Big East or a second team from a smaller league.

Team G
Record: 20-12, 8-10 and ninth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 62
Strength of Schedule: 56
Notable wins: Dayton, West Virginia, Connecticut, Georgetown
Notable losses: Northwestern, South Florida, Villanova, Rutgers, DePaul
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (lost in second round)
Rundown: Everything is very average. The 11-1 nonconference record is misleading. The good wins are accompanied by some awful losses. Average, average, average.
Team G's Identity: Seton Hall. In any other year, the Pirates wouldn't have a prayer. This year, they might.

Team H
Record: 21-11, 8-8 and sixth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 71
Strength of Schedule: 81
Notable wins: Arizona, West Virginia, Detroit, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama
Notable losses: Akron, Arkansas, Mississippi, LSU, Auburn, Georgia (twice)
Conference Tourney: 0-1 (first-round exit)
Rundown: The wins are mostly good, but the losses are really bad. The computer numbers are very unflattering. And the nonconference strength of schedule was awful.
Team H's Identity: Mississippi State. Are they a tourney team? It seemed like it for a long time, but based on the numbers, perhaps not.

Team I
Record: 21-11, 9-7 and fourth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 59
Strength of Schedule: 31
Notable wins: Texas, Miami (twice), Virginia
Notable losses: Georgia Tech, Clemson
Conference Tourney: 2-0 (will play in semifinals)
Rundown: Team H hasn't beaten anyone, except for fellow bubble teams. It played Vanderbilt, Indiana, and Syracuse during nonconference play, but lost all three.
Team I's Identity: N.C. State. Talented, but iffy results. Beating Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals was huge. The Wolfpack's chances are climbing.

Team J
Record: 20-10, 8-6, fourth-place in a non-Big Six conference
RPI: 20
Strength of Schedule: 7
Notable wins: Colorado, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico
Notable losses: Northern Iowa, Stanford, 1-5 on the road in conference play
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (semifinals exit)
Rundown: The road results are shaky and there aren't any nonconference wins to speak of, but the computer numbers are the best of any team on this list. Three wins against the Mountain West elite are impressive, too.
Team J's Identity: Colorado State. Based on this, the Rams look pretty good for a bid.

Team K
Record: 19-11, 10-6 and third-place in a non-Big Six conference
RPI: 55
Strength of Schedule: 52
Notable wins: Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati, Dayton (twice), Saint Joseph's
Notable losses: Oral Roberts, Long Beach State, Hawaii
Conference Tourney: 1-0 (will play in semifinals)
Rundown: Team K's best wins came months ago; it doesn't have an impressive win since December. Does treading water for half a season earn you an at-large bid?
Team K's Identity: Xavier. The Musketeers aren't anything special anymore. But they may have done enough earlier to justify a bid. Two more wins in the wide-open A-10 tournament, though, and Xavier can just lock up an auto-bid.

Right now, Joe Lunardi at ESPN.com has eight of these teams in the tournament. He omits Miami, Northwestern, and Drexel, which is very fair, though one can argue that Drexel deserves entry over a Mississippi State or a Washington. The number of bids could shrink depending on what happens in some conference tournaments (especially the Atlantic 10). And we haven't even considered teams like Oral Roberts or Marshall or Iona that could sneak in on Sunday. There's a lot of moving pieces heading into the final day before the fates of these hopeful squads are determined.

No comments:

Post a Comment