13 Bold Bracket Predictions

A random assortment of thirteen things that I think will happen in this year's NCAA tournament.

A #1 seed will lose before the Sweet 16.
It's happened two years in a row (Kansas vs Northern Iowa in 2010, Pitt vs Butler last year), and it will happen again. Each one-seed has its own nightmare scenario in its second game. #9 Kansas State beat Missouri twice and could cause Syracuse all sorts of problems, especially with Fab Melo ineligible. #8 Memphis is drastically underseeded and has a shot to beat Michigan State. #8 Creighton's Doug McDermott could drop 40 on North Carolina and stun the Tar Heels. And it would be foolish to count out #9 UConn against Kentucky.

A #2 seed will lose before the Sweet 16.
This actually happens quite frequently. And the #2's don't look any safer than usual. There's no shortage of opportunities for upsets. Can you not picture Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons lighting up Duke's porous defense? Or the Florida Gators getting ridiculously hot and sinking 15 3-pointers against Mizzou? Or Kevin Jones and the Mountaineers out-toughing Ohio State? Or the Jayhawks getting shocked yet again by a mid-major when Tyshawn Taylor gets completely outplayed by Matthew Dellavedova of Saint Mary's? A 2-seed is going down. The only question is which.

#15 Detroit will be leading #2 Kansas with less than five minutes to play.
The Titans, as Brad Stevens has pointed out, aren't your typical 15-seed. They might be the best since Steve Nash's Santa Clara squad. Point guard Ray McCallum Jr. was recruited by the country's top programs, but chose to play for his father at Detroit. Six-foot-ten Eli Holman roams the paint. Kansas is obviously talented, but they've overachieved relative to their talent, the supporting cast can be inconsistent, and Tyshawn Taylor can be turnover-prone. We might always remember these Titans.

Either #3 Georgetown will lose to #14 Belmont, or #5 Vanderbilt will lose to #12 Harvard.
We've been told that these Hoyas and these Commodores are different from past squads that choked in the opening round. We're also too smart to be fooled that easily. One of these two will continue its rich tradition of tournament underperformance.

The Mountain West Conference won't win a game.
The MWC has been a strong league this year, with four teams earning tournament bids. But the conference hasn't had much tournament success recently, and no team this year looks as promising as last year's Sweet Sixteen teams (SDSU and BYU). #11 Colorado State has been terrible on the road and has little hope of upsetting Murray State in Louisville. #6 San Diego State will have its hands full with a talented, streaking N.C. State team. #6 UNLV has been underperforming on the road all season and faces the Colorado Buffaloes, who just won four games in four days. #5 New Mexico has the best chance of winning a game, but the Lobos got a tough draw with #12 Long Beach State. Thanks for playing, Mountain West.

A Big East team will lose in the first round to a double-digit seed.
It's happened every year since 2004, so this actually isn't that bold. But the streak will continue. There are plenty of opportunities: Marquette against BYU, Georgetown against Belmont, Cincinnati against Texas, Louisville against Davidson, Notre Dame against Xavier...

A team from the West Coast Conference will reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Maybe I'm disproportionately high on the WCC. But even though Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, and BYU all face a tough road, I think the conference will once again provide us with a Cinderella team. Maybe Robert Sacre and the Zags pick up two wins 1,000 miles away from home. Maybe Saint Mary's stuns the Jayhawks for its second trip to the second weekend in three years. Maybe BYU rides the momentum of its 25-point comeback against Iona to stun Marquette and Murray State. All these scenarios are unlikely. One of them will happen.

Of the eight teams seeded #3 or #4, only three will reach the Sweet Sixteen.
There's going to be a ton of upsets this year, and the teams seeded on the 3- and 4- lines will be the victims. Teams like Michigan, Georgetown, Louisville, Baylor, Indiana, and Wisconsin could all be vulnerable for different reasons. Their first round opponents--the Ohios, the Montanas, the Belmonts, the Davidsons, etc.--are as strong as ever. And the #5 and #6 seeds are unusually potent as well. Take a good long look at the 3- and 4-seeds, as most of them won't be around for very long.

Two double-digit seeds will play each other for a Sweet Sixteen berth.
It happened last year with #12 Richmond and #13 Morehead State, and it'll happen again. Right now, those matchups sound silly: Long Beach State and Davidson? South Dakota State and Colorado? South Florida and Ohio? Texas and St. Bonaventure? But one of them will become reality.

The five obscure players who will become household names after the first weekend are...
Casper Ware of Long Beach State, Will Barton of Memphis, Isaiah Canaan of Murray State, Anthony Collins of South Florida, and C.J. Leslie of N.C. State.

No Big East team will reach the Elite Eight...
Last year, UConn was the only Big East team (out of 11) to get to the Elite Eight. And Kemba isn't coming back to save the conference again. The Big East got nine teams in the tournament, including a #1 seed, two #3's, and a #4. None of them will make an Elite Eight appearance, though.

...but three Big 12 teams will.
The Big 12 has been an outstanding conference all year, and there doesn't seem to be much that can prevent Kansas, Missouri, and Baylor from all reaching the Elite Eight.

No Big 10 team will reach the Final Four.
Both Ohio State and Michigan State are national championship contenders, and Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all 4-seeds. But like the Big East, this conference will be shut out of New Orleans. Michigan State has a very difficult path to the Final Four, and Ohio State be tripped up by one of the many strong teams in the East Region.