With casual spring training games already underway, the sports betting site Bovada recently released its over/under figures for each MLB team's 2014 win total. The numbers set rough outlines for how all 30 teams are expected to perform during the upcoming season. All of the over/unders are listed here, along with a prediction of whether each team will exceed their projected win total or fall short of it.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2013 Wins: 81
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
Nobody does mediocrity like the Diamondbacks. For two years running, Arizona has finished with 81 wins and 81 losses. Their moves this offseason -- like trading for Mark Trumbo and assembling a rotation made up of exclusively #3 starters -- suggest a third straight .500 season could be on tap. When you give Bronson Arroyo an average annual salary of $11 million, why should you expect anything else? Under 80.5 wins.
Atlanta Braves
2013 Wins: 96
2014 Over/Under: 87.5
The Braves spent over a quarter of a billion dollars this winter, and their biggest free agent acquisition was Freddy Garcia. The rest of the money was spent on locking up the young players already on the roster -- Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons, and Julio Teheran. Brian McCann is a significant loss, but the Braves still have one of the most complete and well-rounded rosters in the league. Even with B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla clogging up payroll space. Over 87.5 wins.
Baltimore Orioles
2013 Wins: 85
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
For two straight years, the Orioles have overperformed relative to expectations (and the talent on the team). Why not make it three? Sure, it would be nice to have a major-league second baseman on the roster (the depth chart at the position currently reads: Weeks, Casilla, Flaherty, Schoop). But the free-agent additions of Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz filled much-needed holes. And it's hard to find a young core of position players that's more solid than Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Manny Machado. Over 80.5 wins.
Boston Red Sox
2013 Wins: 97
2014 Over/Under: 87.5
The defending champions did almost nothing to strengthen their team on the free agent market, and instead bid farewell to Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. But the Red Sox aren't being complacent; they're just confident in their in-house replacements. Xander Bogaerts could be a huge offensive upgrade at shortstop and Jackie Bradley Jr. will add excellent defense in center field. And A.J. Pierzynski is technically still capable of being a major-league catcher even if he remains a loathsome human being. A starting rotation fronted by Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy should be reliable, and it benefits even more from the loss of Ryan Dempster, a classic addition-by-subtraction move. The 2013 World Series champions are still very good, and there's some crack analysis. Over 87.5 wins.
Chicago Cubs
2013 Wins: 66
2014 Over/Under: 69.5
The good news for Cubs fans is that their system is full of promising young talent. The worse news is that none of it is on the major league roster yet. This is a bad team, and there's no reason to believe that it will be better than last year's 66-win club. Starlin Castro, once a bright spot, was absolutely useless in 2013. The starting outfield might consist of Junior Lake, Justin Ruggiano, and Nate Schierholtz. And the team's best pitcher, Jeff Samardzija, could be traded at any time. Bad baseball team. Under 69.5 wins.
Chicago White Sox
2013 Wins: 63
2014 Over/Under: 75.5
Setting the over/under for the 2014 White Sox at 75-and-a-half seems ridiculously optimistic. The offense should once again be dreadful, especially if Paul Konerko's last season (he plans on retiring) looks anything like his second-to-last season. Chris Sale is a freak of nature, but he's got absolutely no help on the pitching staff. The addition of intriguing Cuban slugger Jose Abreu is virtually the only reason to watch this team on the days when Sale isn't pitching. Under 75.5 wins.
Cincinnati Reds
2013 Wins: 90
2014 Over/Under: 84.5
It's hard to think of a team that had a more disastrous, frustrating offseason than the Reds. Mat Latos tore his meniscus on the first day of spring training; the pitching depth was already hurting with Bronson Arroyo's departure. Shin-Soo Choo, so valuable last year, is gone. He'll likely be replaced by the impossibly-fast Billy Hamilton, who could either revolutionize the game with his speed or never get on base enough to use it. All of Cincinnati's infielders not named Joey Votto are awful hitters, a well-known fact that the front office did nothing to address. In division led by the Cardinals, the Reds may pay for their inaction. Under 84.5 wins.
Cleveland Indians
2013 Wins: 92
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
It's almost impossible to have a quieter 90-win season than the Indians enjoyed last year. Unfortunately, it will be nearly impossible for them to repeat that success after the losses of Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir to free agency. The pitching simply isn't here -- any team that lists Shaun Marcum as its fifth starter on the depth chart has issues. But the offense should be strong enough to keep the Indians from regressing too much. They're loaded with above-average hitters at almost every spot on the diamond, along with the positional flexibility to exploit matchups. Carlos Santana's move to third base opens up a place behind the plate for Yan Gomes, who was a revelation in limited time last year. Cleveland should be better than .500. Over 80.5.
Colorado Rockies
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 76.5
Colorado has to be one of the most bizarre professional franchises in sports. The Rockies seemingly want to compete for the playoffs now -- they gave millions of dollars to Justin Morneau (??), refused to trade Michael Cuddyer, and brought in Brett Anderson. Yet they also traded away Dexter Fowler and did nothing notable in free agency beyond minor tinkering like Morneau and Drew Stubbs. The Coors Field effect on Rockies pitchers remains a massive issue that the front office isn't addressing. And it's tough to take the 'over' on a team that relies so heavily on two stars -- Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez -- who struggle to remain healthy. Under 76.5.
Detroit Tigers
2013 Wins: 93
2014 Over/Under: 89.5
Trading away Prince Fielder's onerous contract for Ian Kinsler was supposed to open things up financially for the Tigers. Strangely, that hasn't been the case, and the on-field product may suffer as a result. The team seems content to roll with Andy Dirks and Rajai Davis in left field rather than splurging on a free agent like Shin-Soo Choo. Unproven rookie Nick Castellanos appears to be the one and only option at third base. Dumping the eternally-underrated Doug Fister on the Nationals was a head-scratcher. If the Tigers do have budget concerns, then spending $10 million in annual salary on Joe Nathan might not have been the wisest move. This team didn't get better over the last few months. Under 89.5.
Houston Astros
2013 Wins: 51
2014 Over/Under: 62.5
In 2013, the Astros fielded one of the most miserable baseball teams in recent memory (51 wins!). They'll be better in 2014 just by default. But twelve wins better? There are maybe five or six major league players on this 25-man roster. Taking the over on the Astros feels like being on the wrong side of history. Under 62.5.
Kansas City Royals
2013 Wins: 86
2014 Over/Under: 82.5
By trading for Norichika Aoki and signing Omar Infante, the Royals suddenly have respectable major league players at almost every position. They might be a pitcher or two short of where they'd like to be, but they've also got an embarrassment of hard-throwing riches in their stacked bullpen to help cover for the starters. Leaps to stardom by Eric Hosmer or Salvador Perez could make this team the 2014 version of last year's Pirates. Over 82.5.
Los Angeles Angels
2013 Wins: 78
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
No team needed to improve its pitching staff more than the Angels (reminder: they gave a combined 58 starts to Jerome Williams, Joe Blanton, and Tommy Hanson last year). The front office had to add a proven starter or two, even if it meant overpaying Masahiro Tanaka, Matt Garza, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Instead, the Angels did nothing, and now their starting five includes Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards, and Hector Santiago. Wasting Mike Trout's prime years like this is downright criminal. Under 86.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2013 Wins: 92
2014 Over/Under: 92.5
Setting a team's over/under at 92-and-a-half is stunningly optimistic, and yet it might be warranted in the Dodgers' case. The team with more money than some small nations has 11 players making at least $10 million in 2014. Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is a nasty front four, with Paul Maholm and Josh Beckett jostling for the fifth slot. Even if Matt Kemp never gets healthy, the outfield is already full with Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Yasiel Puig. Second base could be a hole, but the Dodgers have proven their willingness to upgrade midseason, at any cost. The 'under' might be the smart play here, if only because 92.5 is such a high number, and guys like Crawford, Kemp, and Hanley Ramirez are injury concerns. Even so, that's not an indictment of this team; the Dodgers are probably the early favorites to win the World Series. Under 92.5 wins.
Miami Marlins
2013 Wins: 62
2014 Over/Under: 69.5
Like the Astros, this team is going to improve in 2014 just by default. In fact, there are some downright exciting names on this roster, especially in the outfield. A healthy season from Giancarlo Stanton could be worth a few extra wins and Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a bargain of an upgrade at catcher. Still ... Rafael Furcal is slated to be the starting second baseman. 70 wins might be too tall an order this soon. Under 69.5 wins.
Milwaukee Brewers
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 79.5
The 2013 Brewers gave 400 plate appearances to Yuniesky Betancourt (his OBP was .240). Improvement in 2014 is almost guaranteed, and not just because Betancourt is now in Japan. Ryan Braun is back from his suspension after only playing in 61 games last year. Matt Garza solidifies a suddenly-decent starting rotation. Khris (not Chris) Davis showed some exciting things at the plate last year. And Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, and Jonathan Lucroy have emerged as a strong up-the-middle core. A .500 season or better should be expected. Over 79.5 wins.
Minnesota Twins
2013 Wins: 66
2014 Over/Under: 70.5
The Twins are paying Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and Mike Pelfrey over $22 million in combined salary in 2014. Instead of taking that lump sum of money and competing for a top-of-the-line starter, they divided it up and got three of the most uninspiring pitchers on the market. The Twins, man. Even if the rotation is less leaky, the offense will once again be one of the worst in baseball. Looking forward to Joe Mauer not making the Hall of Fame because of the Twins' dysfunction. Under 70.5 wins.
New York Mets
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 74.5
The loss of Matt Harvey for the season is likely what's deflating the Mets' over/under here. But the team actually did a solid job grabbing bargains on the free agent market. Flanking Juan Lagares in center field with Curtis Granderson and Chris Young gives the Mets an elite defensive outfield without sacrificing power at the plate. Convincing Bartolo Colon to come to the National League was a savvy move, if only for the hilarity that will surely ensue when he's forced to bat and jog to first a couple times per start. Zack Wheeler could do a decent Harvey impersonation in his first full season. The Mets are headed in the right direction. Over 74.5 wins.
New York Yankees
2013 Wins: 85
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
The good news is that Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran all represent significant offensive upgrades over the dreck this team was sending to the plate last year. Those specific additions also show that the team is actively exploiting its stadium's short right-field porch. Still, half a billion dollars of spending later, the Opening Day lineup is projected to include both Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson. Throw in injury/age concerns surrounding Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira, and the Yankees' infield looks dangerously shaky. Masahiro Tanaka was the key pick-up who could tip the scales, but the over would be a much safer play if New York signed Stephen Drew. Over 86.5 wins.
Oakland Athletics
2013 Wins: 96
2014 Over/Under: 88.5
The team that's won the ultra-competitive AL West for two straight seasons is back again, with only minor changes. Going from Bartolo Colon and Grant Balfour to Scott Kazmir and Jim Johnson may be a small downgrade, but the potential for breakouts from Yoenis Cespedes and Sonny Gray offers upside. The A's have turned themselves into a perennial contender with a deep lineup, nasty bullpen, and young starting rotation. Over 88.5 wins.
Philadelphia Phillies
2013 Wins: 73
2014 Over/Under: 76.5
The Phillies probably aren't a playoff team. They might not even be a .500 team. But they can certainly win 77 games, especially with a rotation that includes Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and A.J. Burnett. Chase Utley is quietly still playing at an elite level. Ryan Howard doesn't have to return to superstar status to be a useful role player. The backlash against the Phillies appears to have gone a bit too far. Over 76.5 wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2013 Wins: 94
2014 Over/Under: 83.5
Pittsburgh is the prime candidate for significant regression in 2014, and this pessimistic over/under total reflects that fact. Although they won 94 games last year, they were closer in quality to an 88-win team according to their total runs scored and allowed. A.J. Burnett left and wasn't replaced. Francisco Liriano won't repeat the ridiculous numbers he posted during his comeback campaign. Any dropoff from the team's lone star player, reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen, would be difficult for this overachieving team to overcome. Under 83.5 wins.
San Diego Padres
2013 Wins: 76
2014 Over/Under: 78.5
It's hard to come up with a professional sports franchise more irrelevant than the Padres, who are never good enough to contend but never as entertainingly dysfunctional as a team like the Marlins. This year, at least, there's some hope for a Pirates-like run. Shortstop Everth Cabrera is a solid pick to lead the majors in stolen bases; Will Venable is coming off a 20-20 season; and a healthy Chase Headley could return to All-Star status. Reclamation projects like Josh Johnson and Ian Kennedy offer potential in Petco Park's pitching friendly environment. There's reason for optimism here. Over 78.5 wins.
San Francisco Giants
2013 Wins: 76
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
After an out-of-nowhere awful season in 2013, the Giants can expect a rebound in 2014. Angel Pagan and Ryan Vogelsong are back from injuries. The rotation should be better with a rebound year from the ultra-reliable Matt Cain as well as the addition of Tim Hudson. The mercurial Pablo Sandoval -- in a contract year -- might show up in shape and motivated. Brandon Belt has grown into an excellent first baseman. Knowing the Giants' history of reviving the careers of washed-up veterans, they'll probably get 30 homers out of Mike Morse, too. Over 86.5 wins.
Seattle Mariners
2013 Wins: 71
2014 Over/Under: 81.5
The Mariners fancy themselves contenders, and signing Robinson Cano was an excellent start down that path. But that acquisition alone wasn't enough to turn a 71-win club into a playoff team, or even a .500 team. The rest of the Mariners' moves were uninspiring -- like filling their glaring holes at "offense-friendly" positions with the oft-injured Corey Hart and failed prospect Logan Morrison. Plus, early injuries to Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker have punched holes in a flimsy pitching staff. This team desperately needs to sign Ervin Santana, or else a .500 season might be out of reach, let alone a playoff berth. Under 81.5 wins.
St. Louis Cardinals
2013 Wins: 97
2014 Over/Under: 90.5
The defending NL champions only had two glaring holes exposed during the World Series: shortstop and center field. In response, they brought in Jhonny Peralta to provide a huge offensive upgrade at short, and flipped David Freese to the Angels to get Peter Bourjos' great defense in center. Done and done. The rest of the roster's needs were filled internally thanks to the Cardinals' ridiculous depth. The presence of Kolten Wong at second base allows Matt Carpenter to replace Freese at third base. And Allen Craig can move into right field to replace Carlos Beltran, allowing Matt Adams to take over at first base. On the mound, the Cardinals' treasure chest of young arms is loaded thanks to the young foursome of Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, and Carlos Martinez. Out of all the teams in baseball, the Cardinals have the best chance of winning their division. Along with the Spurs and the Patriots, this might be the best-run franchise in sports. Over 90.5 wins.
Tampa Bay Rays
2013 Wins: 92
2014 Over/Under: 88.5
The typically-savvy Rays made some uncharacteristically questionable moves this offseason, like willingly trading for Heath Bell and re-signing James Loney to a three-year contract. But they also made some classic Rays moves that should pay solid dividends, like signing Grant Balfour on the cheap, bringing back the underrated David DeJesus, and trading for pitch-framing savant Ryan Hanigan. These supplements to the established core of talent in Tampa Bay should be enough to get this team back to the playoffs yet again. Over 88.5 wins.
Texas Rangers
2013 Wins: 91
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
If nothing else, the Rangers can be sure of one thing: they're going to score buckets and buckets of runs. Shin-Soo Choo getting on base in front of Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder is a formula that's going to work just fine. Fielder in particular could experience a career renaissance in Texas' hitter-friendly ballpark. Jurickson Profar taking over the second base job permanently is another key development to watch. This dynamic offense should be good enough to alleviate concerns about the starting rotation, which is a little thin after Yu Darvish. Over 86.5 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
In the AL East, sitting tight during the offseason just doesn't work. While the Yankees, Orioles, and Rays all actively sought upgrades to compete with the Red Sox for the division title, the Blue Jays did almost nothing to strengthen a roster that fell apart in 2013. To some extent, Toronto is banking on internal improvement just based on health, because Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Brett Lawrie, Melky Cabrera, and Brandon Morrow were all hurt last year. That's a reasonable strategy, but even a fully healthy version of their rotation won't be good enough. Here's another team that really needs to sign Ervin Santana. Under 80.5 wins.
Washington Nationals
2013 Wins: 86
2014 Over/Under: 88.5
Universally pegged as the best team in baseball this time last year, the Nationals struggled with inconsistency and didn't make the playoffs. They should return to form in 2014. Corner outfielders Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth both spent time on the DL and appear to be fully healthy now. A loaded rotation that already boasted Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann now adds Doug Fister. Ian Desmond is suddenly one of the best shortstops in baseball. The only glaring issues here are Ryan Zimmerman's throwing and Adam LaRoche, two problems that could both be fixed simply by moving Zimmerman to first base permanently. Even if the Nats don't go that route, they'll compete with the Braves for the NL East title. Over 88.5 wins.
Monday, March 3, 2014
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: Louisville On a War Path
1. FLORIDA (26-2): The Gators have survived some close calls since rising to the #1 ranking -- a fortunate home escape against Auburn followed by a pair of narrow road wins at Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. But the winning streak is up to 20, and barring a catastrophe, Florida can close out a perfect 18-0 SEC season by beating Kentucky at home in their regular season finale next weekend.
2. WICHITA STATE (30-0): The first team in NCAA history to win thirty regular season games without a loss. One more victory on Saturday and Wichita State will clinch the first undefeated season in college basketball since Saint Joseph's did it a decade ago.
3. ARIZONA (26-2): They seem to have emerged from that team-wide offensive slump -- in two games this week, the Wildcats put up 88 and 87 points in blowout wins. And this defense remains the best in the country. After a bumpy couple of weeks, Arizona is Officially Back.
4. KANSAS (22-6): It's hard to have a better week than the Jayhawks just had. They crushed a good, nationally-ranked Texas team by 31 points and then beat Oklahoma to clinch at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title (for the 10th consecutive year). In his decade of coaching at Kansas, Bill Self now has more league championships (ten) than total home losses (nine).
5. LOUISVILLE (24-4): The Cardinals have been dominating weaker opponents for weeks; they just lacked credibility. That changed last weekend, when they got the signature victory they desperately needed by winning at Cincinnati on a Russ Smith buzzer-beater. Louisville is now a top-15 team in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency -- the only other teams that can make that same claim are Florida and Wichita State.
6. SYRACUSE (26-2): Recapping their last five games: a miracle win over Pittsburgh, a miracle win over N.C. State, a disastrous loss at home to Boston College (which, by the way, lost its very next game to Miami by 27 points), a loss at Duke, and a narrow two-point win at Maryland. That was always going to be a tough five-game stretch, but Syracuse was clearly fortunate to emerge from it with a 3-2 record that they probably didn't deserve.
7. CREIGHTON (23-4): Can Creighton get a number one seed? It's not far-fetched -- the Bluejays have the best offense in the country, the best player in the country, the 8th-best RPI ranking, and a pair of dominating wins over Villanova. If Creighton wins its final three games against quality opponents, and then beats Villanova a third time to win the Big East Tournament, a number one seed should definitely be in play.
8. DUKE (22-6): In two games against Syracuse, Duke attempted a combined total of 57 three-pointers; meanwhile, Syracuse attempted 13. Here's hoping for another re-match between these evenly-matched teams in the ACC Tournament, just so we can see how wide that comical margin can stretch.
9. WISCONSIN (23-5): The Badgers are back! After a miserable January (five losses in six games at one point) Wisconsin is cruising again thanks to impressive back-to-back road wins at Michigan and Iowa. It's time to put Michigan State in a drawer until all their players are healthy at the same time -- which leaves Wisconsin as the best team in the Big Ten.
10. VIRGINIA (23-5): Here's the ACC's version of Louisville. To some extent, Virginia's gaudy 15-1 record in the ACC is a product of fortunate scheduling: the Cavaliers only had to play the four best teams in the conference (Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Pittsburgh) once each. But by squashing inferior competition and avoiding bad losses, the Cavaliers put themselves in position to potentially win the ACC title by beating Syracuse on Saturday.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#4 Syracuse at #12 Virginia, 4:00 PM Saturday
Virginia hasn't given up 60 points in a game since February 5th and hasn't given up 70 against any ACC opponent. Considering how Syracuse's offense has struggled recently (looking at you, Trevor Cooney), Virginia should be more than a light favorite in this game.
#9 Creighton at Xavier, 5:00 PM Saturday
With barely more than two weeks left until Selection Sunday, it's about time for borderline tournament teams to pick up noticeable wins that can push them into the field of 68. Xavier -- wildly inconsistent and 19-9 overall -- would almost certainly assure itself of a tournament bid by knocking off a top-ten Creighton team.
#5 Kansas at Oklahoma State, 9:00 PM Saturday
After such a promising start to their season, a cold stretch of basketball and Marcus Smart's suspension have improbably sent Oklahoma State stumbling backward onto the NCAA Tournament bubble. With Smart back in the lineup, an upset of Kansas would finally secure Oklahoma State team the at-large bid that once seemed like a foregone conclusion.
2. WICHITA STATE (30-0): The first team in NCAA history to win thirty regular season games without a loss. One more victory on Saturday and Wichita State will clinch the first undefeated season in college basketball since Saint Joseph's did it a decade ago.
3. ARIZONA (26-2): They seem to have emerged from that team-wide offensive slump -- in two games this week, the Wildcats put up 88 and 87 points in blowout wins. And this defense remains the best in the country. After a bumpy couple of weeks, Arizona is Officially Back.
4. KANSAS (22-6): It's hard to have a better week than the Jayhawks just had. They crushed a good, nationally-ranked Texas team by 31 points and then beat Oklahoma to clinch at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title (for the 10th consecutive year). In his decade of coaching at Kansas, Bill Self now has more league championships (ten) than total home losses (nine).
5. LOUISVILLE (24-4): The Cardinals have been dominating weaker opponents for weeks; they just lacked credibility. That changed last weekend, when they got the signature victory they desperately needed by winning at Cincinnati on a Russ Smith buzzer-beater. Louisville is now a top-15 team in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency -- the only other teams that can make that same claim are Florida and Wichita State.
6. SYRACUSE (26-2): Recapping their last five games: a miracle win over Pittsburgh, a miracle win over N.C. State, a disastrous loss at home to Boston College (which, by the way, lost its very next game to Miami by 27 points), a loss at Duke, and a narrow two-point win at Maryland. That was always going to be a tough five-game stretch, but Syracuse was clearly fortunate to emerge from it with a 3-2 record that they probably didn't deserve.
7. CREIGHTON (23-4): Can Creighton get a number one seed? It's not far-fetched -- the Bluejays have the best offense in the country, the best player in the country, the 8th-best RPI ranking, and a pair of dominating wins over Villanova. If Creighton wins its final three games against quality opponents, and then beats Villanova a third time to win the Big East Tournament, a number one seed should definitely be in play.
8. DUKE (22-6): In two games against Syracuse, Duke attempted a combined total of 57 three-pointers; meanwhile, Syracuse attempted 13. Here's hoping for another re-match between these evenly-matched teams in the ACC Tournament, just so we can see how wide that comical margin can stretch.
9. WISCONSIN (23-5): The Badgers are back! After a miserable January (five losses in six games at one point) Wisconsin is cruising again thanks to impressive back-to-back road wins at Michigan and Iowa. It's time to put Michigan State in a drawer until all their players are healthy at the same time -- which leaves Wisconsin as the best team in the Big Ten.
10. VIRGINIA (23-5): Here's the ACC's version of Louisville. To some extent, Virginia's gaudy 15-1 record in the ACC is a product of fortunate scheduling: the Cavaliers only had to play the four best teams in the conference (Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Pittsburgh) once each. But by squashing inferior competition and avoiding bad losses, the Cavaliers put themselves in position to potentially win the ACC title by beating Syracuse on Saturday.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#4 Syracuse at #12 Virginia, 4:00 PM Saturday
Virginia hasn't given up 60 points in a game since February 5th and hasn't given up 70 against any ACC opponent. Considering how Syracuse's offense has struggled recently (looking at you, Trevor Cooney), Virginia should be more than a light favorite in this game.
#9 Creighton at Xavier, 5:00 PM Saturday
With barely more than two weeks left until Selection Sunday, it's about time for borderline tournament teams to pick up noticeable wins that can push them into the field of 68. Xavier -- wildly inconsistent and 19-9 overall -- would almost certainly assure itself of a tournament bid by knocking off a top-ten Creighton team.
#5 Kansas at Oklahoma State, 9:00 PM Saturday
After such a promising start to their season, a cold stretch of basketball and Marcus Smart's suspension have improbably sent Oklahoma State stumbling backward onto the NCAA Tournament bubble. With Smart back in the lineup, an upset of Kansas would finally secure Oklahoma State team the at-large bid that once seemed like a foregone conclusion.
Friday, February 21, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: Welcome to Gator Country
1. FLORIDA (24-2): Who's the best player on the best team in the country? The fact that this question has no obvious answer tells you a lot about Florida. Maybe it's Scottie Wilbekin, because the point guard should win by default. But backup Kasey Hill is averaging almost as many assists (3.1) as Wilbekin (3.7) in 10 fewer minutes per game. Casey Prather leads the team in both scoring and field-goal percentage and still, nobody knows who Casey Prather is. Michael Frazier II is the most reliable outside shooter. Dorian Finney-Smith leads the team in rebounding -- and he comes off the bench. Florida's best NBA prospect is Chris Walker, and he only plays a handful of minutes per game. What a weird, awesome team.
2. WICHITA STATE (28-0): Syracuse suffering its first loss to Boston College should remind people that winning every single game you play is really really hard, regardless of the quality of competition. Wichita State standing three games away from an undefeated regular season is an incredible achievement because the Shockers have been playing the Boston Colleges of the world for months and haven't slipped up once. Sure, their strength of schedule is ranked 130th in the country at KenPom.com. But that's ahead of Cincinnati (132) and Louisville (158), two teams that don't face the same kind of skepticism that the Shockers do.
3. SYRACUSE (25-1): It's difficult to articulate just how unlikely the Orange's home loss to Boston College was. BC was 6-19 on the season and their only two wins against Division I opponents since November both came against Virginia Tech. What's even more worrisome is that Syracuse could easily be riding a three-game losing streak right now if not for a miracle heave by Tyler Ennis and an epic N.C. State choke.
4. ARIZONA (24-2): The Wildcats' offense might be letting them down, but their defense remains the best in the country. Arizona only allowed one field goal over the final five minutes to win at Utah, where the Utes had been 16-1 on the season.
5. KANSAS (20-6): Andrew Wiggins put up 19 points and scored the game-winning layup with less than two seconds remaining to salvage a one-point win at Texas Tech. But sure, let's call him disappointing.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (22-5): In Keith Appling's first game back, Michigan State lost a shocker at home to Nebraska. In his second, he racked up nine assists and Michigan State sunk 17 threes to pound Purdue. Here's hoping that second outcome is closer to reality that the first.
7. CREIGHTON (22-4): Villanova only has three losses this season. Two of them are to Creighton. In those two games, Creighton scored a combined 197 points and shot 60% from three-point range (30-for-50!). In their more recent matchup, Doug McDermott dropped 39 points and passed Larry Bird in career scoring. This is one seriously badass offense.
8. LOUISVILLE (22-4): Maybe the hardest résumé to decipher in college basketball. On one hand, the Cardinals are destroying the opposition. Each of their last five wins have come by at least 15 points and they lead the country in scoring margin by a mile (outscoring opponents by 21.5 points per game). But they've also lost against the four best teams they've played (North Carolina, Kentucky, Cincinnati, and Memphis). In fact, they might only have two wins against NCAA Tournament teams (Connecticut and SMU). Louisville still has some work to do if it wants a tournament seed that matches its talent.
9. DUKE (21-6): The following teams have now lost to North Carolina: Duke, Michigan State, Louisville and Kentucky (coincidentally, the top four in preseason rankings). And the following teams have beaten North Carolina: Belmont, UAB, Wake Forest, Miami.
10. SAINT LOUIS (24-2): Last weekend's win over VCU virtually guarantees Saint Louis the regular season title over the ultra-competitive Atlantic 10. The only team more thrilled about that than Saint Louis is Wichita State, who beat the Billikens in their own building back on December 1st. Saint Louis hasn't lost a game since then, a fact that lends Wichita State the credibility it desperately needs.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#11 Louisville at #7 Cincinnati, 12:00 PM Saturday
Louisville has already lost to Cincinnati at home. The Cardinals really need this one to prove that their gaudy numbers aren't a mirage manufactured by whipping bad teams.
St. John's at #6 Villanova, 1:30 PM Saturday
Every year, a team that was initially expected to be good suffers some some bad losses early and falls off the radar, but then figures things out and quietly charges back into relevance. St. John's looks like that team. Once 0-5 in the Big East, the Red Storm is now 8-6 and their only defeat in their last 10 games came at Creighton. On Tuesday, they were trailing to Butler at halftime -- and still won by 25 points. Villanova could get upset here, but the Wildcats are probably thrilled that they don't have to play Creighton.
#1 Syracuse at #5 Duke, 7:00 PM Saturday
A rematch of the best game of the season, and a game Syracuse suddenly has to win just to keep pace with Virginia (of all teams!) in the ACC title race.
#19 Texas at #8 Kansas, 7:30 PM Saturday
With a win here, Kansas would open up a three-game lead on the rest of the Big 12, virtually clinching the regular season title. That would be Bill Self's tenth Big 12 championship in ten years at Kansas. That'll do.
#13 Michigan State at #20 Michigan
The Big Ten title could be on the line here. Michigan (10-3 in the conference) has already won at Michigan State (11-3), although the Spartans didn't have Adreian Payne in that game. Payne is back for what should be a highly entertaining rematch that could hinge on how healthy Keith Appling's wrist feels.
2. WICHITA STATE (28-0): Syracuse suffering its first loss to Boston College should remind people that winning every single game you play is really really hard, regardless of the quality of competition. Wichita State standing three games away from an undefeated regular season is an incredible achievement because the Shockers have been playing the Boston Colleges of the world for months and haven't slipped up once. Sure, their strength of schedule is ranked 130th in the country at KenPom.com. But that's ahead of Cincinnati (132) and Louisville (158), two teams that don't face the same kind of skepticism that the Shockers do.
3. SYRACUSE (25-1): It's difficult to articulate just how unlikely the Orange's home loss to Boston College was. BC was 6-19 on the season and their only two wins against Division I opponents since November both came against Virginia Tech. What's even more worrisome is that Syracuse could easily be riding a three-game losing streak right now if not for a miracle heave by Tyler Ennis and an epic N.C. State choke.
4. ARIZONA (24-2): The Wildcats' offense might be letting them down, but their defense remains the best in the country. Arizona only allowed one field goal over the final five minutes to win at Utah, where the Utes had been 16-1 on the season.
5. KANSAS (20-6): Andrew Wiggins put up 19 points and scored the game-winning layup with less than two seconds remaining to salvage a one-point win at Texas Tech. But sure, let's call him disappointing.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (22-5): In Keith Appling's first game back, Michigan State lost a shocker at home to Nebraska. In his second, he racked up nine assists and Michigan State sunk 17 threes to pound Purdue. Here's hoping that second outcome is closer to reality that the first.
7. CREIGHTON (22-4): Villanova only has three losses this season. Two of them are to Creighton. In those two games, Creighton scored a combined 197 points and shot 60% from three-point range (30-for-50!). In their more recent matchup, Doug McDermott dropped 39 points and passed Larry Bird in career scoring. This is one seriously badass offense.
8. LOUISVILLE (22-4): Maybe the hardest résumé to decipher in college basketball. On one hand, the Cardinals are destroying the opposition. Each of their last five wins have come by at least 15 points and they lead the country in scoring margin by a mile (outscoring opponents by 21.5 points per game). But they've also lost against the four best teams they've played (North Carolina, Kentucky, Cincinnati, and Memphis). In fact, they might only have two wins against NCAA Tournament teams (Connecticut and SMU). Louisville still has some work to do if it wants a tournament seed that matches its talent.
9. DUKE (21-6): The following teams have now lost to North Carolina: Duke, Michigan State, Louisville and Kentucky (coincidentally, the top four in preseason rankings). And the following teams have beaten North Carolina: Belmont, UAB, Wake Forest, Miami.
10. SAINT LOUIS (24-2): Last weekend's win over VCU virtually guarantees Saint Louis the regular season title over the ultra-competitive Atlantic 10. The only team more thrilled about that than Saint Louis is Wichita State, who beat the Billikens in their own building back on December 1st. Saint Louis hasn't lost a game since then, a fact that lends Wichita State the credibility it desperately needs.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#11 Louisville at #7 Cincinnati, 12:00 PM Saturday
Louisville has already lost to Cincinnati at home. The Cardinals really need this one to prove that their gaudy numbers aren't a mirage manufactured by whipping bad teams.
St. John's at #6 Villanova, 1:30 PM Saturday
Every year, a team that was initially expected to be good suffers some some bad losses early and falls off the radar, but then figures things out and quietly charges back into relevance. St. John's looks like that team. Once 0-5 in the Big East, the Red Storm is now 8-6 and their only defeat in their last 10 games came at Creighton. On Tuesday, they were trailing to Butler at halftime -- and still won by 25 points. Villanova could get upset here, but the Wildcats are probably thrilled that they don't have to play Creighton.
#1 Syracuse at #5 Duke, 7:00 PM Saturday
A rematch of the best game of the season, and a game Syracuse suddenly has to win just to keep pace with Virginia (of all teams!) in the ACC title race.
#19 Texas at #8 Kansas, 7:30 PM Saturday
With a win here, Kansas would open up a three-game lead on the rest of the Big 12, virtually clinching the regular season title. That would be Bill Self's tenth Big 12 championship in ten years at Kansas. That'll do.
#13 Michigan State at #20 Michigan
The Big Ten title could be on the line here. Michigan (10-3 in the conference) has already won at Michigan State (11-3), although the Spartans didn't have Adreian Payne in that game. Payne is back for what should be a highly entertaining rematch that could hinge on how healthy Keith Appling's wrist feels.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Arizona: Suddenly, Not A Number One Seed
The Arizona Wildcats dominated the first two-thirds of the college basketball season. They won the NIT Season Tip-Off by beating Duke in Madison Square Garden. They won true road games at San Diego State and Michigan, two teams that currently occupy first place in their respective conferences. And at the end of January, they were undefeated at 21-0 overall, 8-0 in the Pac-12, and seemingly a lock for the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
So the idea that Arizona might not even receive a #1 seed in the tournament sounds a bit preposterous. But that scenario is becoming more and more likely with each passing week, because of one important fact: the Selection Committee considers injuries when doling out seeds. All of Arizona's significant wins came with Brandon Ashley in the starting lineup -- and his foot will prevent him from playing again this season. That injury certainly doesn't invalidate those wins, but it does place the onus back on Arizona to prove that the Ashley-less version of this team isn't significantly worse than the one that was widely championed as the favorite to win the national championship. If it can convince the cognoscenti of that fact, then the Selection Committee can justify keeping the Wildcats on the top seed line despite the injury.
So far, though, Arizona hasn't fooled anyone into thinking that this post-Ashley team is on the same basketball plane as the pre-injury version. The Wildcats are 2-2 without Ashley (including the contest in which he suffered the injury) compared to 21-0 with him. That record could easily be 1-3 if not for a narrow escape at home over Oregon. After winning at San Diego State and at Michigan earlier in the season, Arizona has lost both of its road games this month, at California and at Arizona State. Their team shooting percentage in those two losses: 32% and 36%. If these offensive struggles continue, more road losses potentially loom with tricky games at Utah, at Colorado, and at Oregon still remaining. These early returns suggest that the current Arizona team simply isn't the same one that accumulated all those awesome wins a few months ago. That doesn't mean Arizona should be dropped down from a #1 to a #8 seed, or that this version of the team can't win the championship. It does, however, damage the legitimacy of Arizona's overall résumé in the eyes of a Selection Committee that takes such things into consideration when distributing those precious top overall seeds.
But there's another, far more ironic reason why the likelihood of a #1 seed is plummeting: because two of Arizona's prime competitors for those slots are actually going to benefit from their own injury situations. The obvious example is Michigan State. Like Arizona, the Spartans were one of the best teams in the country until they were struck by an injury plague that has resulted in four losses in seven games, including a home defeat to Nebraska. The difference between the two cases, though, lies in the fact that Michigan State's injured players are not out for the season like Brandon Ashley. Chances are that Keith Appling and Branden Dawson will be completely healthy before the NCAA Tournament begins, at which point Michigan State will be at full strength for the first time in months. Assuming that happens, the Selection Committee will likely give Michigan State a pass for the losses it suffered when it was playing with a depleted lineup. Arizona gets no such pass because Brandon Ashley isn't coming back; whatever Arizona is now is what Arizona will be in March. That puts Michigan State ahead of the Wildcats on the #1 seed pecking order.
The same goes for Florida. A short while ago, it seemed like Arizona was miles ahead of Florida because the Gators lost their two most significant road games -- at Wisconsin and at Connecticut. But like Michigan State, Florida will receive special consideration from the Selection Committee in some form because the Gators did not field their full team in either of those two losses. Scottie Wilbekin and Dorian Finney-Smith, two seniors who combine for 22 points per game, did not play at Wisconsin because of team-imposed suspensions. Against UConn, Florida played without a point guard in the final minutes because Wilbekin got hurt late and backup Kasey Hill missed the game with an ankle sprain; the Gators lost by one on a buzzer-beater. 23-0 against all other opponents, Florida has not lost a game with all of its players available. Therefore, in the eyes of the Selection Committee, Florida is virtually just as undefeated as Syracuse or Wichita State. And definitely ahead of Arizona in the line for a #1 seed.
So if the tournament started today, your number one seeds would be Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida, and a hypothetically-healthy-in-the-future Michigan State. Arizona's best chance of sneaking into that top four would come if Michigan State never manages to put its complete team on the floor. But even in that scenario, Arizona would still have to compete for that last spot with a team like Kansas (which should be a #1 if it wins the post-apocalyptic showdown that will be the Big 12 Tournament) or even San Diego State (which has a solid chance of finishing with just two losses). Remarkably, then, it appears as though it took less than three weeks for the team that dominated two-thirds of the season to lose its grip on a number-one seed that at one point was considered to be a foregone conclusion. And what was the cause? Not a dramatic locker room brawl or a string of positive drug tests or a head coach's mental breakdown. Just an injury to that team's fifth-most important player. As if you needed any more proof that greatness in college basketball is a delicate, delicate thing.
So far, though, Arizona hasn't fooled anyone into thinking that this post-Ashley team is on the same basketball plane as the pre-injury version. The Wildcats are 2-2 without Ashley (including the contest in which he suffered the injury) compared to 21-0 with him. That record could easily be 1-3 if not for a narrow escape at home over Oregon. After winning at San Diego State and at Michigan earlier in the season, Arizona has lost both of its road games this month, at California and at Arizona State. Their team shooting percentage in those two losses: 32% and 36%. If these offensive struggles continue, more road losses potentially loom with tricky games at Utah, at Colorado, and at Oregon still remaining. These early returns suggest that the current Arizona team simply isn't the same one that accumulated all those awesome wins a few months ago. That doesn't mean Arizona should be dropped down from a #1 to a #8 seed, or that this version of the team can't win the championship. It does, however, damage the legitimacy of Arizona's overall résumé in the eyes of a Selection Committee that takes such things into consideration when distributing those precious top overall seeds.
But there's another, far more ironic reason why the likelihood of a #1 seed is plummeting: because two of Arizona's prime competitors for those slots are actually going to benefit from their own injury situations. The obvious example is Michigan State. Like Arizona, the Spartans were one of the best teams in the country until they were struck by an injury plague that has resulted in four losses in seven games, including a home defeat to Nebraska. The difference between the two cases, though, lies in the fact that Michigan State's injured players are not out for the season like Brandon Ashley. Chances are that Keith Appling and Branden Dawson will be completely healthy before the NCAA Tournament begins, at which point Michigan State will be at full strength for the first time in months. Assuming that happens, the Selection Committee will likely give Michigan State a pass for the losses it suffered when it was playing with a depleted lineup. Arizona gets no such pass because Brandon Ashley isn't coming back; whatever Arizona is now is what Arizona will be in March. That puts Michigan State ahead of the Wildcats on the #1 seed pecking order.
The same goes for Florida. A short while ago, it seemed like Arizona was miles ahead of Florida because the Gators lost their two most significant road games -- at Wisconsin and at Connecticut. But like Michigan State, Florida will receive special consideration from the Selection Committee in some form because the Gators did not field their full team in either of those two losses. Scottie Wilbekin and Dorian Finney-Smith, two seniors who combine for 22 points per game, did not play at Wisconsin because of team-imposed suspensions. Against UConn, Florida played without a point guard in the final minutes because Wilbekin got hurt late and backup Kasey Hill missed the game with an ankle sprain; the Gators lost by one on a buzzer-beater. 23-0 against all other opponents, Florida has not lost a game with all of its players available. Therefore, in the eyes of the Selection Committee, Florida is virtually just as undefeated as Syracuse or Wichita State. And definitely ahead of Arizona in the line for a #1 seed.
So if the tournament started today, your number one seeds would be Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida, and a hypothetically-healthy-in-the-future Michigan State. Arizona's best chance of sneaking into that top four would come if Michigan State never manages to put its complete team on the floor. But even in that scenario, Arizona would still have to compete for that last spot with a team like Kansas (which should be a #1 if it wins the post-apocalyptic showdown that will be the Big 12 Tournament) or even San Diego State (which has a solid chance of finishing with just two losses). Remarkably, then, it appears as though it took less than three weeks for the team that dominated two-thirds of the season to lose its grip on a number-one seed that at one point was considered to be a foregone conclusion. And what was the cause? Not a dramatic locker room brawl or a string of positive drug tests or a head coach's mental breakdown. Just an injury to that team's fifth-most important player. As if you needed any more proof that greatness in college basketball is a delicate, delicate thing.
Friday, February 14, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: Orange You Glad I Didn't Say Florida
1. SYRACUSE (24-0): A big 'thank you' goes out to Tyler Ennis on behalf of all fans. Not only did he provide us with perhaps this season's most memorable moment by sinking a 35-foot buzzer-beater at Pittsburgh; he also raised the stakes for next weekend by ensuring that Syracuse's undefeated record will be on the line during their huge rematch at Duke. Provided that the Orange beat N.C. State and Boston College between now and then. And with that one last-second heave, Ennis may have also single-handedly crippled Pittsburgh's NCAA Tournament seed. The Panthers were just a few seconds away from toppling the #1 team in the country; instead, they still can't lay claim to a single win over a likely tournament team this year, unless you're in a generous mood and want to count Stanford.
2. FLORIDA (22-2): Officially biting at Syracuse's heels. In a recent win over Alabama, Florida recorded assists on 22 of its 31 field goals. Six different players had at least three assists! The Gators might not have a single marquee star, but they're remarkably unselfish and team-oriented.
3. ARIZONA (23-1): It's immediately become clear that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is capable of replacing Brandon Ashley's lost production in the starting lineup. In the two games since Ashley's injury, Hollis-Jefferson has totaled 30 points and 15 rebounds on excellent shooting numbers.
4. WICHITA STATE (26-0): If you're looking for reason why Syracuse and Wichita State are the last two teams without a loss, the answer probably lies with point guard play. As sensational as Tyler Ennis has been (136 assists, 35 turnovers), the Shockers' Fred VanVleet (133 assists, 36 turnovers) has been just as good.
5. KANSAS (18-6): Apologies to the Big Ten, but the Big 12 has been the best conference in college basketball this year. Kansas is a national title contender, and will be joined in the tournament by Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. West Virginia was once considered irrelevant but now sits at 7-5 in the league after some great recent wins. Baylor is just 3-8 in the conference yet beat Kentucky on a neutral floor. Texas Tech won't make the tournament but beat both Oklahoma schools this week. TCU (0-11) is the only pushover among the ten teams in the conference.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (21-4): In two games without Keith Appling this week, the Spartans lost at Wisconsin by two on a last-second shot and then clobbered Northwestern. This team is deep enough to win without its point guard in part because of Travis Trice, who has totaled 29 points, 15 assists, and zero turnovers in three games since Appling's wrist injury.
7. DUKE (19-5): Jabari Parker's last four games, three of which were on the road: 21.5 points and 11 rebounds per game on 53% shooting. He's the main reason why Duke is now scoring the most points per 100 possessions of any team in the country.
8. VILLANOVA (22-2): The silent juggernaut of the 2014 season, Villanova is just crushing its opponents in February, winning its last four Big East games by the scores of 90-74, 81-58, 70-53, and 87-62. The Wildcats rank within the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency; the only other teams that can make that same claim are Syracuse, Michigan State, and Louisville.
9. SAINT LOUIS (22-2): This is partly a nod to the Atlantic 10 Conference, which is enjoying yet another banner season despite being perennially overlooked. Saint Louis is now 9-0 in a league that includes VCU, George Washington, Massachusetts, and Saint Joseph's, all of which are potentially NCAA Tournament teams. Saint Louis is also riding a 16-game winning streak, and its two losses came against Wisconsin and Wichita State. The only teams out there with a more efficient defense are Arizona and Virginia. And it's not like this season has come out of thin air -- the Billikens were a #4 seed in last year's tournament.
10. IOWA STATE (18-5): So, Iowa State may or may not be the tenth-best team in the country. They just got blown out at West Virginia. But there may not be a single team out there that can match the quality of Iowa State's top three players. Point guard DeAndre Kane is averaging 16 points and 6.5 assists per game on 47% shooting. Georges Niang is the ultimate point-forward, a six-foot-seven guy chipping in another 16 points and almost four assists per game. But the Big 12 Player of the Year might be their teammate, Melvin Ejim, who bumped up his per-game averages to 19 and 9 with a legendary performance against TCU this week: forty-eight points (48!!), a Big 12 record, and 18 rebounds, on 20-of-24 shooting. The Kane/Niang/Ejim trio leads a wide-open Iowa State offense that totals the most assists per game in the country; this is about as close as college basketball can get to its version of LeBron/Wade/Bosh.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#25 Pittsburgh at North Carolina, 1:00 PM Saturday
This is literally Pittsburgh's last chance to beat a good team and prove that its 20-5 record isn't a mirage. Pitt won't face another quality opponent until the ACC tournament.
VCU at #12 Saint Louis, 2:00 PM Saturday
The surging Atlantic 10 gets its first big showdown of the year. Saint Louis is the nationally ranked team and the favorite, but VCU is having its typical season: 20-5 overall including a November win at Virginia that looks better and better with each passing week.
#3 Florida at #14 Kentucky, 9:00 PM Saturday
These two teams are exact inverses of each other on the traditional pundit's basketball spectrum. Florida is your ultimate "teamwork and veteran leadership" squad that doesn't have a top-ten draft pick but starts four seniors and gets by on experience, unselfishness, and tenacious defense. Kentucky, on the other hand, starts five freshmen who exhibit immaturity, oversized egos, and bad body language at times but who win games anyway because of their overwhelming, NBA-level talent. Kentucky needs this one more -- if not for its NCAA Tournament résumé, then for its perception, which has taken a hit these last few weeks.
#21 Wisconsin at #15 Michigan, 1:00 PM Sunday
Wisconsin winning at Michigan would make no empirical sense based on recent results, so bank on that happening.
#6 Villanova at #18 Creighton, 5:00 PM Sunday
The two best teams in the Big East facing off. In their first matchup, Creighton's high-powered offense unleashed a historic shooting barrage (21 of 35 from three-point range!) to blow Villanova out of its own building, 96-68. It wouldn't be surprising to see Villanova return the favor here.
2. FLORIDA (22-2): Officially biting at Syracuse's heels. In a recent win over Alabama, Florida recorded assists on 22 of its 31 field goals. Six different players had at least three assists! The Gators might not have a single marquee star, but they're remarkably unselfish and team-oriented.
3. ARIZONA (23-1): It's immediately become clear that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is capable of replacing Brandon Ashley's lost production in the starting lineup. In the two games since Ashley's injury, Hollis-Jefferson has totaled 30 points and 15 rebounds on excellent shooting numbers.
4. WICHITA STATE (26-0): If you're looking for reason why Syracuse and Wichita State are the last two teams without a loss, the answer probably lies with point guard play. As sensational as Tyler Ennis has been (136 assists, 35 turnovers), the Shockers' Fred VanVleet (133 assists, 36 turnovers) has been just as good.
5. KANSAS (18-6): Apologies to the Big Ten, but the Big 12 has been the best conference in college basketball this year. Kansas is a national title contender, and will be joined in the tournament by Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. West Virginia was once considered irrelevant but now sits at 7-5 in the league after some great recent wins. Baylor is just 3-8 in the conference yet beat Kentucky on a neutral floor. Texas Tech won't make the tournament but beat both Oklahoma schools this week. TCU (0-11) is the only pushover among the ten teams in the conference.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (21-4): In two games without Keith Appling this week, the Spartans lost at Wisconsin by two on a last-second shot and then clobbered Northwestern. This team is deep enough to win without its point guard in part because of Travis Trice, who has totaled 29 points, 15 assists, and zero turnovers in three games since Appling's wrist injury.
7. DUKE (19-5): Jabari Parker's last four games, three of which were on the road: 21.5 points and 11 rebounds per game on 53% shooting. He's the main reason why Duke is now scoring the most points per 100 possessions of any team in the country.
8. VILLANOVA (22-2): The silent juggernaut of the 2014 season, Villanova is just crushing its opponents in February, winning its last four Big East games by the scores of 90-74, 81-58, 70-53, and 87-62. The Wildcats rank within the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency; the only other teams that can make that same claim are Syracuse, Michigan State, and Louisville.
9. SAINT LOUIS (22-2): This is partly a nod to the Atlantic 10 Conference, which is enjoying yet another banner season despite being perennially overlooked. Saint Louis is now 9-0 in a league that includes VCU, George Washington, Massachusetts, and Saint Joseph's, all of which are potentially NCAA Tournament teams. Saint Louis is also riding a 16-game winning streak, and its two losses came against Wisconsin and Wichita State. The only teams out there with a more efficient defense are Arizona and Virginia. And it's not like this season has come out of thin air -- the Billikens were a #4 seed in last year's tournament.
10. IOWA STATE (18-5): So, Iowa State may or may not be the tenth-best team in the country. They just got blown out at West Virginia. But there may not be a single team out there that can match the quality of Iowa State's top three players. Point guard DeAndre Kane is averaging 16 points and 6.5 assists per game on 47% shooting. Georges Niang is the ultimate point-forward, a six-foot-seven guy chipping in another 16 points and almost four assists per game. But the Big 12 Player of the Year might be their teammate, Melvin Ejim, who bumped up his per-game averages to 19 and 9 with a legendary performance against TCU this week: forty-eight points (48!!), a Big 12 record, and 18 rebounds, on 20-of-24 shooting. The Kane/Niang/Ejim trio leads a wide-open Iowa State offense that totals the most assists per game in the country; this is about as close as college basketball can get to its version of LeBron/Wade/Bosh.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#25 Pittsburgh at North Carolina, 1:00 PM Saturday
This is literally Pittsburgh's last chance to beat a good team and prove that its 20-5 record isn't a mirage. Pitt won't face another quality opponent until the ACC tournament.
VCU at #12 Saint Louis, 2:00 PM Saturday
The surging Atlantic 10 gets its first big showdown of the year. Saint Louis is the nationally ranked team and the favorite, but VCU is having its typical season: 20-5 overall including a November win at Virginia that looks better and better with each passing week.
#3 Florida at #14 Kentucky, 9:00 PM Saturday
These two teams are exact inverses of each other on the traditional pundit's basketball spectrum. Florida is your ultimate "teamwork and veteran leadership" squad that doesn't have a top-ten draft pick but starts four seniors and gets by on experience, unselfishness, and tenacious defense. Kentucky, on the other hand, starts five freshmen who exhibit immaturity, oversized egos, and bad body language at times but who win games anyway because of their overwhelming, NBA-level talent. Kentucky needs this one more -- if not for its NCAA Tournament résumé, then for its perception, which has taken a hit these last few weeks.
#21 Wisconsin at #15 Michigan, 1:00 PM Sunday
Wisconsin winning at Michigan would make no empirical sense based on recent results, so bank on that happening.
#6 Villanova at #18 Creighton, 5:00 PM Sunday
The two best teams in the Big East facing off. In their first matchup, Creighton's high-powered offense unleashed a historic shooting barrage (21 of 35 from three-point range!) to blow Villanova out of its own building, 96-68. It wouldn't be surprising to see Villanova return the favor here.
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Michigan Keeps Rolling, and Other Results From Tuesday
Michigan 70, Ohio State 60
The Big 10 remains a hot mess. Ohio State was finally in a groove entering this game, and Michigan had lost two out of three. Naturally, then, the Wolverines scored 44 points in the second half to win in Columbus for the first time in over a decade. Michigan may not be the best team in this conference, but thanks to some well-timed road wins, they've suddenly got the best chance of winning the regular season title. When was the last time any team won on the road against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State in the same season? For Ohio State, the story was the same as always: LaQuinton Ross (24 points) and Lenzelle Smith (13) are the only players on this roster capable of offense. Three 3-point makes in 20 attempts isn't going to cut it.
Texas 87, Oklahoma State 68
There was little hope of Oklahoma State winning this road game without the suspended Marcus Smart. As it turns out, some things in college basketball turn out exactly how you expect them to: Texas ran the Smart-less Cowboys out of the gym with a 54-point barrage in the first half. Oklahoma State is legitimately at risk of an epic collapse: once 15-2 and considered to be a Final Four possibility, they've lost five straight and still have to play two more games (vs Oklahoma, at Baylor) without Smart. Texas, meanwhile, continues to surprise, and is on pace to be that one random #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament that nobody ever even heard about once during the season.
Florida 67, Tennessee 58
Florida never wins at Tennessee. In the Gators' last eight games in Knoxville, their record was 1-7. Now it's 2-7, even though they shot just 36% from the field as a team (they did, however, unleash some of their beastly defense by holding Tennessee to just seven field goals on 24 attempts in the second half). So if it wasn't official before, it is now: Florida is out of the SEC's league. The only real obstacle between them and an undefeated conference record is this weekend's showdown at Kentucky. That game will feature the only locks for the NCAA Tournament in this entire conference. All the other SEC "contenders" -- Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi, Missouri, whoever -- will probably be squarely on the bubble when Selection Sunday rolls around. It would be quite an embarrassment if a major conference only got two teams into the field of 68.
Wichita State 78, Southern Illinois 67
Wichita State didn't even play that well. They still got double-digit scoring out of five different players and sleepwalked their way to a home win over yet another overmatched Missouri Valley opponent. That's 26 straight victories without a loss. Even with five games still go to, it would now qualify as a significant surprise if Wichita State didn't finish the regular season with an undefeated record.
The Big 10 remains a hot mess. Ohio State was finally in a groove entering this game, and Michigan had lost two out of three. Naturally, then, the Wolverines scored 44 points in the second half to win in Columbus for the first time in over a decade. Michigan may not be the best team in this conference, but thanks to some well-timed road wins, they've suddenly got the best chance of winning the regular season title. When was the last time any team won on the road against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State in the same season? For Ohio State, the story was the same as always: LaQuinton Ross (24 points) and Lenzelle Smith (13) are the only players on this roster capable of offense. Three 3-point makes in 20 attempts isn't going to cut it.
Texas 87, Oklahoma State 68
There was little hope of Oklahoma State winning this road game without the suspended Marcus Smart. As it turns out, some things in college basketball turn out exactly how you expect them to: Texas ran the Smart-less Cowboys out of the gym with a 54-point barrage in the first half. Oklahoma State is legitimately at risk of an epic collapse: once 15-2 and considered to be a Final Four possibility, they've lost five straight and still have to play two more games (vs Oklahoma, at Baylor) without Smart. Texas, meanwhile, continues to surprise, and is on pace to be that one random #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament that nobody ever even heard about once during the season.
Florida 67, Tennessee 58
Florida never wins at Tennessee. In the Gators' last eight games in Knoxville, their record was 1-7. Now it's 2-7, even though they shot just 36% from the field as a team (they did, however, unleash some of their beastly defense by holding Tennessee to just seven field goals on 24 attempts in the second half). So if it wasn't official before, it is now: Florida is out of the SEC's league. The only real obstacle between them and an undefeated conference record is this weekend's showdown at Kentucky. That game will feature the only locks for the NCAA Tournament in this entire conference. All the other SEC "contenders" -- Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi, Missouri, whoever -- will probably be squarely on the bubble when Selection Sunday rolls around. It would be quite an embarrassment if a major conference only got two teams into the field of 68.
Wichita State 78, Southern Illinois 67
Wichita State didn't even play that well. They still got double-digit scoring out of five different players and sleepwalked their way to a home win over yet another overmatched Missouri Valley opponent. That's 26 straight victories without a loss. Even with five games still go to, it would now qualify as a significant surprise if Wichita State didn't finish the regular season with an undefeated record.
Thursday, February 6, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: The Clockwork Orange
1. SYRACUSE (22-0): Within the span of just a few hours last Saturday night, Syracuse won the most exhilarating college basketball game of the season and Arizona suffered both its first loss and a key injury. That was enough for the AP and Coaches polls to anoint the Orange as the new #1 team in the country and it's difficult to disagree. Their toughest road test of the year comes on Wednesday when they visit Pittsburgh, a legitimate candidate to hand this team its first loss.
2. KANSAS (17-5): For some reason, the Jayhawks dropped to eighth in the AP poll after suffering their fifth loss of the season this week, at Texas. First of all -- Texas is 18-4 overall, 7-2 (and in second place) in the Big 12, and on its way to the NCAA Tournament. And more importantly -- five losses is not a big number for Kansas, which has subjected itself to an unthinkably hellish schedule. Here's a few of their opponents: Florida, San Diego State, Villanova, Duke, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgetown, Toledo, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State (twice), Baylor (twice), and now Texas. Eight of those teams are currently ranked nationally in the AP Poll, and most of them will be in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas' 11-5 record against those opponents should be a plus, not a minus.
3. FLORIDA (20-2): The Gators have surrendered 70 points in a regulation game just once; they haven't lost since December 2nd; their starting lineup includes four seniors who have been to the Elite Eight in each of the last three seasons. Quietly, a #1 seed is becoming increasingly likely.
4. ARIZONA (22-1): The Wildcats' long-term outlook has changed rather significantly after the loss at Cal -- not because of the defeat itself, but because of the season-ending foot injury sustained by Brandon Ashley. A six-foot-eight forward averaging 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, Ashley was a key third big man who could stretch the floor and make free throws (neither of which are skills that the more-heralded Aaron Gordon possesses at this juncture). Arizona was only using seven legitimate rotation players when Ashley was healthy; without him, the team's depth and versatility take a serious hit. In their first full game without him, they barely sneaked past Oregon at home. Similar struggles may follow.
5. WICHITA STATE (24-0): On Wednesday, the Shockers passed the most challenging test they had left on their schedule by winning at Indiana State, 65-58. With only seven games remaining until the Missouri Valley's conference tournament, ESPN's Basketball Power Index estimates that Wichita State now has a 65% chance of finishing the regular season without a loss.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (20-3): The injury cards keep being reshuffled: Adreian Payne made his successful return from a foot sprain against Penn State on Thursday, but Keith Appling missed that same game because of a wrist injury that may prevent him from playing at Wisconsin. That's Michigan State's snake-bitten season in a nutshell. Tom Izzo has been forced to use 13 different starting lineups in 23 games. Health remains the biggest (and perhaps only) obstacle for the Spartans.
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (20-1) and 8. CINCINNATI (22-2): These teams are remarkably similar: both play elite defense, struggle to score, and rely heavily on one superstar in crunch time. For San Diego State, that star is Xavier Thames, who keyed a double-digit comeback win at Boise State by scoring 10 straight points and recording the game-winning assist in the final minutes. And for Cincinnati it's Sean Kilpatrick, who put up a monster 26-point, 12-rebound, six-assist effort to carry his team to a narrow win over Connecticut.
9. DUKE (18-5): The Blue Devils proved that it's possible for a team's stock to rise after a gut-wrenching loss. Despite significant foul trouble and Herculean performances from C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant, Duke almost managed to knock off undefeated Syracuse in front of the largest crowd in the Carrier Dome's history. Even factoring in that loss, Duke has been one of the best teams in the country over the last several weeks and the schedule down the stretch is a cakewalk -- with the notable exception of a rematch with the Orange on February 22nd.
10. VILLANOVA (20-2): The Big East is quietly having one if its most disappointing seasons in years. Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh are gone; Marquette and Georgetown are underachieving; and newcomers Butler and Xavier have done little of note. One of the league's only bright spots (along with Creighton) has been Villanova, which won the Battle for Atlantis tournament back in November by beating Kansas and Iowa on a neutral floor. Since then, the Wildcats have used their depth and balance to emerge as the favorites to win the new-look Big East.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#10 Michigan at #17 Iowa, 2:00 PM Saturday
Will the Big 10 ever provide us with some semblance of order or clarity? Silly question.
#23 Gonzaga at #24 Memphis, 9:00 PM Saturday
Gonzaga has once again amassed its typically-gaudy record (21-3, 11-1 in the West Coast Conference), but unlike last year, the team hasn't beaten anybody of note. This game will be the Bulldogs' only chance to beef up their tournament résumé and prove that they're relevant.
#9 Michigan State at Wisconsin, 1:00 PM Sunday
Once the beneficiaries of an elite home field advantage, the Wisconsin Badgers have somehow lost three consecutive home games (one to Northwestern!) for the first time since 1997-98. Undefeated as recently as a month ago, this usually-consistent program has now lost five out of seven overall and another defeat would leave them at just 5-6 in the Big 10. Fortunately for the wounded home team, the Spartans' Keith Appling is a question mark because of his wrist injury. It's a golden opportunity for Wisconsin to finally right the ship.
2. KANSAS (17-5): For some reason, the Jayhawks dropped to eighth in the AP poll after suffering their fifth loss of the season this week, at Texas. First of all -- Texas is 18-4 overall, 7-2 (and in second place) in the Big 12, and on its way to the NCAA Tournament. And more importantly -- five losses is not a big number for Kansas, which has subjected itself to an unthinkably hellish schedule. Here's a few of their opponents: Florida, San Diego State, Villanova, Duke, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgetown, Toledo, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State (twice), Baylor (twice), and now Texas. Eight of those teams are currently ranked nationally in the AP Poll, and most of them will be in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas' 11-5 record against those opponents should be a plus, not a minus.
3. FLORIDA (20-2): The Gators have surrendered 70 points in a regulation game just once; they haven't lost since December 2nd; their starting lineup includes four seniors who have been to the Elite Eight in each of the last three seasons. Quietly, a #1 seed is becoming increasingly likely.
4. ARIZONA (22-1): The Wildcats' long-term outlook has changed rather significantly after the loss at Cal -- not because of the defeat itself, but because of the season-ending foot injury sustained by Brandon Ashley. A six-foot-eight forward averaging 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, Ashley was a key third big man who could stretch the floor and make free throws (neither of which are skills that the more-heralded Aaron Gordon possesses at this juncture). Arizona was only using seven legitimate rotation players when Ashley was healthy; without him, the team's depth and versatility take a serious hit. In their first full game without him, they barely sneaked past Oregon at home. Similar struggles may follow.
5. WICHITA STATE (24-0): On Wednesday, the Shockers passed the most challenging test they had left on their schedule by winning at Indiana State, 65-58. With only seven games remaining until the Missouri Valley's conference tournament, ESPN's Basketball Power Index estimates that Wichita State now has a 65% chance of finishing the regular season without a loss.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (20-3): The injury cards keep being reshuffled: Adreian Payne made his successful return from a foot sprain against Penn State on Thursday, but Keith Appling missed that same game because of a wrist injury that may prevent him from playing at Wisconsin. That's Michigan State's snake-bitten season in a nutshell. Tom Izzo has been forced to use 13 different starting lineups in 23 games. Health remains the biggest (and perhaps only) obstacle for the Spartans.
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (20-1) and 8. CINCINNATI (22-2): These teams are remarkably similar: both play elite defense, struggle to score, and rely heavily on one superstar in crunch time. For San Diego State, that star is Xavier Thames, who keyed a double-digit comeback win at Boise State by scoring 10 straight points and recording the game-winning assist in the final minutes. And for Cincinnati it's Sean Kilpatrick, who put up a monster 26-point, 12-rebound, six-assist effort to carry his team to a narrow win over Connecticut.
9. DUKE (18-5): The Blue Devils proved that it's possible for a team's stock to rise after a gut-wrenching loss. Despite significant foul trouble and Herculean performances from C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant, Duke almost managed to knock off undefeated Syracuse in front of the largest crowd in the Carrier Dome's history. Even factoring in that loss, Duke has been one of the best teams in the country over the last several weeks and the schedule down the stretch is a cakewalk -- with the notable exception of a rematch with the Orange on February 22nd.
10. VILLANOVA (20-2): The Big East is quietly having one if its most disappointing seasons in years. Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh are gone; Marquette and Georgetown are underachieving; and newcomers Butler and Xavier have done little of note. One of the league's only bright spots (along with Creighton) has been Villanova, which won the Battle for Atlantis tournament back in November by beating Kansas and Iowa on a neutral floor. Since then, the Wildcats have used their depth and balance to emerge as the favorites to win the new-look Big East.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#10 Michigan at #17 Iowa, 2:00 PM Saturday
Will the Big 10 ever provide us with some semblance of order or clarity? Silly question.
#23 Gonzaga at #24 Memphis, 9:00 PM Saturday
Gonzaga has once again amassed its typically-gaudy record (21-3, 11-1 in the West Coast Conference), but unlike last year, the team hasn't beaten anybody of note. This game will be the Bulldogs' only chance to beef up their tournament résumé and prove that they're relevant.
#9 Michigan State at Wisconsin, 1:00 PM Sunday
Once the beneficiaries of an elite home field advantage, the Wisconsin Badgers have somehow lost three consecutive home games (one to Northwestern!) for the first time since 1997-98. Undefeated as recently as a month ago, this usually-consistent program has now lost five out of seven overall and another defeat would leave them at just 5-6 in the Big 10. Fortunately for the wounded home team, the Spartans' Keith Appling is a question mark because of his wrist injury. It's a golden opportunity for Wisconsin to finally right the ship.
Sunday, February 2, 2014
A.J. Burnett is the Prettiest Girl at the Dance
Several days ago, baseball's stagnant free agent market was finally shaken into action by some potentially game-changing news. Reports indicated that A.J. Burnett has decided to return to the mound in 2014 rather than retire, and contrary to statements he made several months ago, it appears as though he will entertain all offers instead of negotiating exclusively with his Pittsburgh Pirates. Overnight, A.J. Burnett has suddenly become the most enticing free agent in a thin market.
A few years ago that statement would have seemed preposterous. Burnett was terrible in his final two seasons with the Yankees, posting a 5.20 ERA in his last 66 appearances with the team despite earning an annual salary of $16.5 million. After 2011, the Yankees were so eager to get rid of him that they dumped him on Pittsburgh and agreed to pay $20 million of the $33 million still on his contract. Much like David Justice in "Moneyball," Burnett was being paid by the Yankees to play for somebody else.
But somewhat unsurprisingly, Burnett enjoyed a career renaissance in Pittsburgh. Not only did he escape the brutal AL East for the more forgiving NL Central; on top of that, his new team offered a far more pitcher-friendly ballpark and one of the smartest shifting defenses in baseball. From 2012 to 2013, Burnett made 61 starts for his new team, threw almost 400 innings, and posted a 3.41 ERA. Last year, he led the league in strikeout rate and helped the Pirates reach the playoffs for the first time in a generation. Though he once carried the "injury-prone" label, he has actually made at least 30 starts in every season since 2008. Burnett's combination of performance and durability has transformed him back into a desirable asset.
Yet what really sets Burnett apart on the free agent market is the contract he'll be willing to sign. As a 37-year-old who flirted with retirement this winter, he's unlikely to command (or even want) a long-term commitment. A one- or two- year deal for Burnett carries virtually no risk, unlike the seven-year deal for Masahiro Tanaka or the four-year deal for Matt Garza. Plus, the Pirates did not extend Burnett a qualifying offer, which means the team that ultimately signs him will not have to give up their first-round draft pick. That makes Burnett a relatively safe investment who will require no long-term sacrifices.
The list of suitors for Burnett should be long. Any team that doesn't have a complete roster yet but still has designs on making the playoffs in 2014 should be calling his agent. That includes franchises like the Orioles, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Pirates. There should be a sense of urgency in this situation, because whoever misses out on Burnett will be stuck with choosing from the leftovers wasting away on the free agent scrap heap. And there's virtually nothing attractive out there; the "best" hitters and pitchers still available outside of Burnett are:
Ervin Santana, who apparently wants a four- or five- year deal even though he is just one season removed from a 5.16 ERA with the Angels ... and whoever signs him will need to give up their first-round draft pick.
Ubaldo Jimenez, who is even less trustworthy than Santana; who is also demanding a long-term contract; and who will also require the surrendering of a first-round pick.
Kendrys Morales, a first-baseman/DH who hasn't posted an OPS over .800 since 2010, and who will also require his team to give up a first-rounder.
Or (best of all) there's always Nelson Cruz, who supposedly wanted $75 million earlier in the offseason even though he's a 33-year-old corner outfielder coming off a drug suspension who can't play defense and owns a three-year cumulative on-base percentage of .319 ... and, yes, will also require a first-round draft pick.
There's only one free agent available right now who can safely provide high-quality value in 2014 without a long-term commitment or a draft pick price tag, and that's A.J. Burnett. He can be a godsend for a team like the Orioles by both bolstering their rotation and keeping them from throwing stupid desperate money at Nelson Cruz. Given the poor quality of the alternatives and the impending arrival of spring training, the bidding war should be fast-paced and intense. A.J. Burnett is the prettiest girl at the dance right now, and considering how dead his career looked a couple of years ago, he's probably enjoying every second of it.
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