With casual spring training games already underway, the sports betting site Bovada recently released its over/under figures for each MLB team's 2014 win total. The numbers set rough outlines for how all 30 teams are expected to perform during the upcoming season. All of the over/unders are listed here, along with a prediction of whether each team will exceed their projected win total or fall short of it.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2013 Wins: 81
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
Nobody does mediocrity like the Diamondbacks. For two years running, Arizona has finished with 81 wins and 81 losses. Their moves this offseason -- like trading for Mark Trumbo and assembling a rotation made up of exclusively #3 starters -- suggest a third straight .500 season could be on tap. When you give Bronson Arroyo an average annual salary of $11 million, why should you expect anything else? Under 80.5 wins.
Atlanta Braves
2013 Wins: 96
2014 Over/Under: 87.5
The Braves spent over a quarter of a billion dollars this winter, and their biggest free agent acquisition was Freddy Garcia. The rest of the money was spent on locking up the young players already on the roster -- Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons, and Julio Teheran. Brian McCann is a significant loss, but the Braves still have one of the most complete and well-rounded rosters in the league. Even with B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla clogging up payroll space. Over 87.5 wins.
Baltimore Orioles
2013 Wins: 85
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
For two straight years, the Orioles have overperformed relative to expectations (and the talent on the team). Why not make it three? Sure, it would be nice to have a major-league second baseman on the roster (the depth chart at the position currently reads: Weeks, Casilla, Flaherty, Schoop). But the free-agent additions of Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz filled much-needed holes. And it's hard to find a young core of position players that's more solid than Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Manny Machado. Over 80.5 wins.
Boston Red Sox
2013 Wins: 97
2014 Over/Under: 87.5
The defending champions did almost nothing to strengthen their team on the free agent market, and instead bid farewell to Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. But the Red Sox aren't being complacent; they're just confident in their in-house replacements. Xander Bogaerts could be a huge offensive upgrade at shortstop and Jackie Bradley Jr. will add excellent defense in center field. And A.J. Pierzynski is technically still capable of being a major-league catcher even if he remains a loathsome human being. A starting rotation fronted by Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy should be reliable, and it benefits even more from the loss of Ryan Dempster, a classic addition-by-subtraction move. The 2013 World Series champions are still very good, and there's some crack analysis. Over 87.5 wins.
Chicago Cubs
2013 Wins: 66
2014 Over/Under: 69.5
The good news for Cubs fans is that their system is full of promising young talent. The worse news is that none of it is on the major league roster yet. This is a bad team, and there's no reason to believe that it will be better than last year's 66-win club. Starlin Castro, once a bright spot, was absolutely useless in 2013. The starting outfield might consist of Junior Lake, Justin Ruggiano, and Nate Schierholtz. And the team's best pitcher, Jeff Samardzija, could be traded at any time. Bad baseball team. Under 69.5 wins.
Chicago White Sox
2013 Wins: 63
2014 Over/Under: 75.5
Setting the over/under for the 2014 White Sox at 75-and-a-half seems ridiculously optimistic. The offense should once again be dreadful, especially if Paul Konerko's last season (he plans on retiring) looks anything like his second-to-last season. Chris Sale is a freak of nature, but he's got absolutely no help on the pitching staff. The addition of intriguing Cuban slugger Jose Abreu is virtually the only reason to watch this team on the days when Sale isn't pitching. Under 75.5 wins.
Cincinnati Reds
2013 Wins: 90
2014 Over/Under: 84.5
It's hard to think of a team that had a more disastrous, frustrating offseason than the Reds. Mat Latos tore his meniscus on the first day of spring training; the pitching depth was already hurting with Bronson Arroyo's departure. Shin-Soo Choo, so valuable last year, is gone. He'll likely be replaced by the impossibly-fast Billy Hamilton, who could either revolutionize the game with his speed or never get on base enough to use it. All of Cincinnati's infielders not named Joey Votto are awful hitters, a well-known fact that the front office did nothing to address. In division led by the Cardinals, the Reds may pay for their inaction. Under 84.5 wins.
Cleveland Indians
2013 Wins: 92
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
It's almost impossible to have a quieter 90-win season than the Indians enjoyed last year. Unfortunately, it will be nearly impossible for them to repeat that success after the losses of Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir to free agency. The pitching simply isn't here -- any team that lists Shaun Marcum as its fifth starter on the depth chart has issues. But the offense should be strong enough to keep the Indians from regressing too much. They're loaded with above-average hitters at almost every spot on the diamond, along with the positional flexibility to exploit matchups. Carlos Santana's move to third base opens up a place behind the plate for Yan Gomes, who was a revelation in limited time last year. Cleveland should be better than .500. Over 80.5.
Colorado Rockies
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 76.5
Colorado has to be one of the most bizarre professional franchises in sports. The Rockies seemingly want to compete for the playoffs now -- they gave millions of dollars to Justin Morneau (??), refused to trade Michael Cuddyer, and brought in Brett Anderson. Yet they also traded away Dexter Fowler and did nothing notable in free agency beyond minor tinkering like Morneau and Drew Stubbs. The Coors Field effect on Rockies pitchers remains a massive issue that the front office isn't addressing. And it's tough to take the 'over' on a team that relies so heavily on two stars -- Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez -- who struggle to remain healthy. Under 76.5.
Detroit Tigers
2013 Wins: 93
2014 Over/Under: 89.5
Trading away Prince Fielder's onerous contract for Ian Kinsler was supposed to open things up financially for the Tigers. Strangely, that hasn't been the case, and the on-field product may suffer as a result. The team seems content to roll with Andy Dirks and Rajai Davis in left field rather than splurging on a free agent like Shin-Soo Choo. Unproven rookie Nick Castellanos appears to be the one and only option at third base. Dumping the eternally-underrated Doug Fister on the Nationals was a head-scratcher. If the Tigers do have budget concerns, then spending $10 million in annual salary on Joe Nathan might not have been the wisest move. This team didn't get better over the last few months. Under 89.5.
Houston Astros
2013 Wins: 51
2014 Over/Under: 62.5
In 2013, the Astros fielded one of the most miserable baseball teams in recent memory (51 wins!). They'll be better in 2014 just by default. But twelve wins better? There are maybe five or six major league players on this 25-man roster. Taking the over on the Astros feels like being on the wrong side of history. Under 62.5.
Kansas City Royals
2013 Wins: 86
2014 Over/Under: 82.5
By trading for Norichika Aoki and signing Omar Infante, the Royals suddenly have respectable major league players at almost every position. They might be a pitcher or two short of where they'd like to be, but they've also got an embarrassment of hard-throwing riches in their stacked bullpen to help cover for the starters. Leaps to stardom by Eric Hosmer or Salvador Perez could make this team the 2014 version of last year's Pirates. Over 82.5.
Los Angeles Angels
2013 Wins: 78
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
No team needed to improve its pitching staff more than the Angels (reminder: they gave a combined 58 starts to Jerome Williams, Joe Blanton, and Tommy Hanson last year). The front office had to add a proven starter or two, even if it meant overpaying Masahiro Tanaka, Matt Garza, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Instead, the Angels did nothing, and now their starting five includes Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards, and Hector Santiago. Wasting Mike Trout's prime years like this is downright criminal. Under 86.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2013 Wins: 92
2014 Over/Under: 92.5
Setting a team's over/under at 92-and-a-half is stunningly optimistic, and yet it might be warranted in the Dodgers' case. The team with more money than some small nations has 11 players making at least $10 million in 2014. Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is a nasty front four, with Paul Maholm and Josh Beckett jostling for the fifth slot. Even if Matt Kemp never gets healthy, the outfield is already full with Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Yasiel Puig. Second base could be a hole, but the Dodgers have proven their willingness to upgrade midseason, at any cost. The 'under' might be the smart play here, if only because 92.5 is such a high number, and guys like Crawford, Kemp, and Hanley Ramirez are injury concerns. Even so, that's not an indictment of this team; the Dodgers are probably the early favorites to win the World Series. Under 92.5 wins.
Miami Marlins
2013 Wins: 62
2014 Over/Under: 69.5
Like the Astros, this team is going to improve in 2014 just by default. In fact, there are some downright exciting names on this roster, especially in the outfield. A healthy season from Giancarlo Stanton could be worth a few extra wins and Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a bargain of an upgrade at catcher. Still ... Rafael Furcal is slated to be the starting second baseman. 70 wins might be too tall an order this soon. Under 69.5 wins.
Milwaukee Brewers
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 79.5
The 2013 Brewers gave 400 plate appearances to Yuniesky Betancourt (his OBP was .240). Improvement in 2014 is almost guaranteed, and not just because Betancourt is now in Japan. Ryan Braun is back from his suspension after only playing in 61 games last year. Matt Garza solidifies a suddenly-decent starting rotation. Khris (not Chris) Davis showed some exciting things at the plate last year. And Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, and Jonathan Lucroy have emerged as a strong up-the-middle core. A .500 season or better should be expected. Over 79.5 wins.
Minnesota Twins
2013 Wins: 66
2014 Over/Under: 70.5
The Twins are paying Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and Mike Pelfrey over $22 million in combined salary in 2014. Instead of taking that lump sum of money and competing for a top-of-the-line starter, they divided it up and got three of the most uninspiring pitchers on the market. The Twins, man. Even if the rotation is less leaky, the offense will once again be one of the worst in baseball. Looking forward to Joe Mauer not making the Hall of Fame because of the Twins' dysfunction. Under 70.5 wins.
New York Mets
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 74.5
The loss of Matt Harvey for the season is likely what's deflating the Mets' over/under here. But the team actually did a solid job grabbing bargains on the free agent market. Flanking Juan Lagares in center field with Curtis Granderson and Chris Young gives the Mets an elite defensive outfield without sacrificing power at the plate. Convincing Bartolo Colon to come to the National League was a savvy move, if only for the hilarity that will surely ensue when he's forced to bat and jog to first a couple times per start. Zack Wheeler could do a decent Harvey impersonation in his first full season. The Mets are headed in the right direction. Over 74.5 wins.
New York Yankees
2013 Wins: 85
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
The good news is that Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran all represent significant offensive upgrades over the dreck this team was sending to the plate last year. Those specific additions also show that the team is actively exploiting its stadium's short right-field porch. Still, half a billion dollars of spending later, the Opening Day lineup is projected to include both Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson. Throw in injury/age concerns surrounding Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira, and the Yankees' infield looks dangerously shaky. Masahiro Tanaka was the key pick-up who could tip the scales, but the over would be a much safer play if New York signed Stephen Drew. Over 86.5 wins.
Oakland Athletics
2013 Wins: 96
2014 Over/Under: 88.5
The team that's won the ultra-competitive AL West for two straight seasons is back again, with only minor changes. Going from Bartolo Colon and Grant Balfour to Scott Kazmir and Jim Johnson may be a small downgrade, but the potential for breakouts from Yoenis Cespedes and Sonny Gray offers upside. The A's have turned themselves into a perennial contender with a deep lineup, nasty bullpen, and young starting rotation. Over 88.5 wins.
Philadelphia Phillies
2013 Wins: 73
2014 Over/Under: 76.5
The Phillies probably aren't a playoff team. They might not even be a .500 team. But they can certainly win 77 games, especially with a rotation that includes Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and A.J. Burnett. Chase Utley is quietly still playing at an elite level. Ryan Howard doesn't have to return to superstar status to be a useful role player. The backlash against the Phillies appears to have gone a bit too far. Over 76.5 wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2013 Wins: 94
2014 Over/Under: 83.5
Pittsburgh is the prime candidate for significant regression in 2014, and this pessimistic over/under total reflects that fact. Although they won 94 games last year, they were closer in quality to an 88-win team according to their total runs scored and allowed. A.J. Burnett left and wasn't replaced. Francisco Liriano won't repeat the ridiculous numbers he posted during his comeback campaign. Any dropoff from the team's lone star player, reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen, would be difficult for this overachieving team to overcome. Under 83.5 wins.
San Diego Padres
2013 Wins: 76
2014 Over/Under: 78.5
It's hard to come up with a professional sports franchise more irrelevant than the Padres, who are never good enough to contend but never as entertainingly dysfunctional as a team like the Marlins. This year, at least, there's some hope for a Pirates-like run. Shortstop Everth Cabrera is a solid pick to lead the majors in stolen bases; Will Venable is coming off a 20-20 season; and a healthy Chase Headley could return to All-Star status. Reclamation projects like Josh Johnson and Ian Kennedy offer potential in Petco Park's pitching friendly environment. There's reason for optimism here. Over 78.5 wins.
San Francisco Giants
2013 Wins: 76
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
After an out-of-nowhere awful season in 2013, the Giants can expect a rebound in 2014. Angel Pagan and Ryan Vogelsong are back from injuries. The rotation should be better with a rebound year from the ultra-reliable Matt Cain as well as the addition of Tim Hudson. The mercurial Pablo Sandoval -- in a contract year -- might show up in shape and motivated. Brandon Belt has grown into an excellent first baseman. Knowing the Giants' history of reviving the careers of washed-up veterans, they'll probably get 30 homers out of Mike Morse, too. Over 86.5 wins.
Seattle Mariners
2013 Wins: 71
2014 Over/Under: 81.5
The Mariners fancy themselves contenders, and signing Robinson Cano was an excellent start down that path. But that acquisition alone wasn't enough to turn a 71-win club into a playoff team, or even a .500 team. The rest of the Mariners' moves were uninspiring -- like filling their glaring holes at "offense-friendly" positions with the oft-injured Corey Hart and failed prospect Logan Morrison. Plus, early injuries to Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker have punched holes in a flimsy pitching staff. This team desperately needs to sign Ervin Santana, or else a .500 season might be out of reach, let alone a playoff berth. Under 81.5 wins.
St. Louis Cardinals
2013 Wins: 97
2014 Over/Under: 90.5
The defending NL champions only had two glaring holes exposed during the World Series: shortstop and center field. In response, they brought in Jhonny Peralta to provide a huge offensive upgrade at short, and flipped David Freese to the Angels to get Peter Bourjos' great defense in center. Done and done. The rest of the roster's needs were filled internally thanks to the Cardinals' ridiculous depth. The presence of Kolten Wong at second base allows Matt Carpenter to replace Freese at third base. And Allen Craig can move into right field to replace Carlos Beltran, allowing Matt Adams to take over at first base. On the mound, the Cardinals' treasure chest of young arms is loaded thanks to the young foursome of Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, and Carlos Martinez. Out of all the teams in baseball, the Cardinals have the best chance of winning their division. Along with the Spurs and the Patriots, this might be the best-run franchise in sports. Over 90.5 wins.
Tampa Bay Rays
2013 Wins: 92
2014 Over/Under: 88.5
The typically-savvy Rays made some uncharacteristically questionable moves this offseason, like willingly trading for Heath Bell and re-signing James Loney to a three-year contract. But they also made some classic Rays moves that should pay solid dividends, like signing Grant Balfour on the cheap, bringing back the underrated David DeJesus, and trading for pitch-framing savant Ryan Hanigan. These supplements to the established core of talent in Tampa Bay should be enough to get this team back to the playoffs yet again. Over 88.5 wins.
Texas Rangers
2013 Wins: 91
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
If nothing else, the Rangers can be sure of one thing: they're going to score buckets and buckets of runs. Shin-Soo Choo getting on base in front of Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder is a formula that's going to work just fine. Fielder in particular could experience a career renaissance in Texas' hitter-friendly ballpark. Jurickson Profar taking over the second base job permanently is another key development to watch. This dynamic offense should be good enough to alleviate concerns about the starting rotation, which is a little thin after Yu Darvish. Over 86.5 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
In the AL East, sitting tight during the offseason just doesn't work. While the Yankees, Orioles, and Rays all actively sought upgrades to compete with the Red Sox for the division title, the Blue Jays did almost nothing to strengthen a roster that fell apart in 2013. To some extent, Toronto is banking on internal improvement just based on health, because Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Brett Lawrie, Melky Cabrera, and Brandon Morrow were all hurt last year. That's a reasonable strategy, but even a fully healthy version of their rotation won't be good enough. Here's another team that really needs to sign Ervin Santana. Under 80.5 wins.
Washington Nationals
2013 Wins: 86
2014 Over/Under: 88.5
Universally pegged as the best team in baseball this time last year, the Nationals struggled with inconsistency and didn't make the playoffs. They should return to form in 2014. Corner outfielders Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth both spent time on the DL and appear to be fully healthy now. A loaded rotation that already boasted Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann now adds Doug Fister. Ian Desmond is suddenly one of the best shortstops in baseball. The only glaring issues here are Ryan Zimmerman's throwing and Adam LaRoche, two problems that could both be fixed simply by moving Zimmerman to first base permanently. Even if the Nats don't go that route, they'll compete with the Braves for the NL East title. Over 88.5 wins.
No comments:
Post a Comment