Showing posts with label Michael Young. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Young. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Do the Phillies Know Who the Good Baseball Players Are?

This offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies stood at a crossroads. Their expensive and aging roster was only good for 81 wins and a third-place finish in 2012. The team's general manager, Ruben Amaro, had to decide whether to make another run at a championship with his existing core, or begin to rebuild with younger players. He chose the first course of action. In his mind, the Phillies are still good enough that a few smart additions could mean a World Series title. And he's right, because any team that has a pitching staff led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels is automatically in the mix. He just needed to make a few upgrades on offense to give this Phillies core one last chance at a title before Chase Utley's knees implode.

Amaro sought out players who could fill his four biggest needs on offense: right field, center field, third base, and middle-infield depth. The four players he ended up acquiring -- the players who are supposed to bolster Philadelphia's roster for a championship run -- are so deeply flawed that they have me questioning whether Ruben Amaro knows what a good baseball player looks like.

1. Michael Young, Third Baseman
Ah, Michael Young. He was quite an excellent player once. This is no longer the case. Actually, Young was probably the worst everyday player in baseball last year. He came to the plate 651 times last year and only drew 33 walks (by comparison, he grounded into 26 double plays). That comes out to a .312 on-base percentage. His power numbers were nonexistent: a .370 slugging percentage with just eight homers. He's technically a third baseman, but being virtually immobile, he isn't any good at that either, which is why his Texas Rangers stuck him at DH most of last year. However, the Philadelphia Phillies play in the National League, where playing Young at DH would be entirely illegal. If Young plays the field every day and continues to rack up almost as many double plays as walks, he could very well repeat as the Worst Player in Baseball.
Viable Alternatives: Kevin Youkilis, Jeff Keppinger, a scarecrow

2. Delmon Young, "Right Fielder"
But if someone is going to challenge Michael for that title, it's going to be his long-lost brother Delmon. Now, Delmon's power numbers were better than Michael's last year: 18 homers and a .411 slugging percentage. But remarkably, his plate discipline was somehow even worse. He swung more often than any other player in baseball (60% of the time), even more than Josh Hamilton. He only walked 20 times in 608 plate appearances -- while grounding into 20 double plays. He drew ball four 3.3% of the time, which was the second-worst walk rate in all of baseball, behind only Alexei Ramirez. At least Ramirez plays good defense.

"But perhaps Delmon Young plays good defense too," one might respond. One clearly has not ever seen Delmon Young. This is a man whose contract with the Phillies includes weight clauses. Weight clauses. Meaning that six times during the season, Young gets on a scale and can earn an additional $100,000 from the team each time he measures in under 230 pounds. No, Delmon Young can't play much defense, which was okay when he could DH for the Tigers in the American League. Like Michael, Delmon can do no such thing for the National League Phillies. Which means Delmon will be "running down" fly balls in right field all year, which could do irreparable damage to Roy Halladay's career ERA.

The icing on the cake: last season, Young was involved in a public altercation, described in this paragraph by the New York Times:

"According to the police, a heavily intoxicated Young yelled anti-Semitic slurs and attacked a group of tourists outside the New York Hilton, the Tigers’ team hotel, about 2:30 a.m. Friday. According to a police report, Young began yelling the epithets at a group of four tourists who were giving money to a panhandler who was wearing a skullcap and a Star of David pendant around his neck, and the encounter became physical."

So, he's terrible at baseball, but at least he's an anti-Semite.
Viable Alternatives: Nick Swisher, Josh Hamilton, Torii Hunter, Scott Hairston, Domonic Brown

3. Ben Revere, Center Fielder
It doesn't seem fair to include Revere in the same breath as Michael and Delmon Young. Because at least Revere can do two things that the Youngs can't: play defense and run fast. Revere is an excellent defensive center-fielder and he stole 40 bases last year. Unfortunately, at the plate, Revere is completely impotent. Sure, he hit .294 last year. But those hits were almost all singles, because Ben Revere cannot hit for power. Literally -- he's been to the plate over a thousand times in his major league career and he has yet to hit one home run. Of his 275 career hits, only 33 went for extra bases. His career slugging percentage is .323. The sad part? That's still higher than his career on-base percentage: .319.

Like both Youngs, Revere doesn't draw walks. He did so only 29 times last year. So without any plate discipline, or any power, Revere's offensive value relies completely on his legs. He'll swing at the first good pitch he sees and try to beat out an infield single. That's a nearly useless offensive player. At the very least, he'll play a good center field. He'll need to, what with The Weight Clause manning right field.
Viable Alternatives: Michael Bourn, Denard Span

4. Yuniesky Betancourt, Shortstop
Betancourt only signed a minor league deal, so he might not make the Phillies roster. But given the combined age of Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins (68) and their combined number of healthy knees (??), it's safe to bet on Betancourt making more than a few appearances at shortstop and second base.

He's played over 1,000 career games, and he's never not been useless. His career on-base percentage is an unsightly .290. Heck, Michael Jordan's minor league OBP was .289. He's drawn 129 walks -- since 2005. He, too, doesn't hit for power (.392 slugging percentage) and he's not even a good defender. Speed? Well, he does have 30 stolen bases in his career ... and he's also been caught 30 times. Betancourt's Wins Above Replacement totals for the last six years look like this: -1.2, -0.8, -1.3, -1.5, -0.8, -0.4. Yes, those are minus signs in front of all those numbers. He's been worth negative value in each of the last six seasons.
Viable Alternatives: Me, You

Add up the total WAR that all four of these players contributed in 2012 and you get -2.4. Revere was the only one with positive value. Add up the total number of times that these players walked in 2012, and you get 91. Carlos Pena walked 87 times last year, by himself, and the Astros signed him for less than what the Phillies are paying Michael Young. When asked on the radio about his team's aversion to walks, Ruben Amaro replied,

"I don't care about walks, I care about production."

I don't care about walks, I care about production. If this is what Amaro really believes, then the Phillies are in serious trouble. Failing to understand that walks are a form of production is crazy. Maybe Amaro is waging his own mini-war on Moneyball philosophy. If so, he's losing. The three teams with the highest on-base percentage last year were the Cardinals, Yankees, and Tigers -- in other words, three of the last four teams standing in the playoffs. The Phillies finished just 17th in OBP and ended up in third place.

Apparently, Ruben Amaro didn't settle on these four players because there were no other alternatives (which, by the way, is false). He actually sought them out because he thinks they are good at baseball. He sees players not in terms of the value they provide, but in terms of broad labels. He looks at Michael Young and sees "Hardened, Grizzled Veteran." Delmon Young: "Power Bat With Playoff Experience." Ben Revere: "Pesky, Gritty Glue Guy." Yuniesky Betancourt: "Savvy Middle Infielder."

The Phillies needed an infusion of skilled offensive players to help get them back to the World Series. Instead, they got Michael Young, Delmon Young, Ben Revere, and Yuniesky Betancourt. The Phillies needed a shot in the arm. They got a punch in the face.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

When 228 Baseball Players Get It Wrong

Sports Illustrated recently polled 228 MLB players, asking them to identify the "Most Underrated Position Player" in baseball. "Underrated" is a very broad term, so there aren't many players that would universally qualify as "bad" choices for the "Most Underrated" title.

In fact, there's really no excuse for the winner of this poll to be a controversial selection at all. The players could've picked any talented, well-liked guy from a small market (Ben Zobrist, Shin Soo-Choo, whomever), and they would've been right. Or even a well-paid star in a large market who just doesn't get his due for some reason (Adrian Beltre, Paul Konerko). There are so many justifiable options out there for Most Underrated.

Instead, they chose Michael Young. Michael Young, the most underrated player in baseball. Why is this a terrible and very ironic choice? Because Michael Young of the Texas Rangers might actually be the most overrated player in baseball.

This season, Young's batting average has taken a dive down to .273. His on-base percentage is just .304, below the league average of .320. His slugging percentage is only .352, well below the league average of .406. That leaves Young's OPS at .656, also below the league average of .726. The average player walks 8.1% of the time; Young's walk-rate is at 4.6%. He has just three home runs. His adjusted OPS+ is currently 71, meaning his offense is about 29% worse than league average. And for some perspective: Young is practicing all of this offensive mediocrity in one of the most offense-friendly home ballparks in baseball.

To make matters worse, Young has started 65 of his 87 games at either DH or first base this season. So not only is he an offensive liability--he's an offensive liability at positions reserved entirely for offense.

And as for his "leadership" and other "intangibles" that he always gets credit for: he threw a hissy fit when the Rangers asked him to change positions to accommodate the signing of Adrian Beltre two offseasons ago. Rather than gracefully accepting a move that greatly improved his team's World Series chances, Michael Young publicly demanded a trade. Draw your own conclusions.

Now, for some comparisons. One usually gets two standard answers when one asks the masses, "Who are the most overrated 
players in baseball?" These players are Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. Please note these 2012 statistics:

Michael Young: .273/.304/.352, 3 HRs, 71 OPS+

Derek Jeter: .308/.353/.411, 7 HRs, 103 OPS+

Michael Young: .273/.304/.352, 3 HRs, 71 OPS+

Alex Rodriguez: .270/.353/.442, 14 HRs, 111 OPS+

On top of those numbers, both Jeter and Rodriguez play the field more often than Young does, and actually provide baserunning value (they've stolen a combined 17 bases while getting caught a total of 3 times; Young has successfully stolen just two bags on four attempts). Jeter and A-Rod, universally confirmed as overrated players, are easily outperforming Michael Young, apparently the poster child for the underrated and unappreciated.


In Young, we have a 35-year-old who plays first base and DH in an offense-friendly ballpark for a first-place team, yet isn't doing any of the following things: hitting for average, hitting for power, walking, stealing bases, or playing good defense (or any defense at all). Add it all up and Young has been worth -1.0 Wins Above Replacement this season. His "contributions" have 
cost his team a win. And oh-by-the-way, he's pulling in $16 million for his efforts this season, making him the highest-paid player on his team.

So yeah, when I look at Michael Young, I think, "Man, this guy is so underrated."

Sunday, April 29, 2012

The Baseball Hall of Very Good

During the fourth inning of Sunday night's Rays-Rangers game, Michael Young slapped a David Price offering into right field for a two-out single. ESPN broadcaster Dan Shulman then posed the following question (or some variation of it) to his partners, Orel Hershiser and Terry Francona:

"Does Michael Young have a chance at the Hall of Fame?"

Well, technically, lots of players have a chance at the Hall of Fame. But if we're being down-to-earth serious...the correct answer to this question is, "No, Dan, he does not."

Terry Francona and Orel Hershiser, in near-unision: "I sure hope so."

Why? Why do you hope so? Michael Young's career batting line: .304/.350/.451. His OPS+ is 106, meaning he's been 6% better-than-average offensively. In basically 11 full seasons, he's accumulated 2,088 hits, 171 HRs, and 89 steals. He has never finished in the top seven in an MVP vote. A comparable player:

Mystery Player: .305/.365/.442, 122 OPS+, 2008 hits, 163 HRs, 174 steals

This guy was basically a less-durable version of Michael Young: similarly high batting averages with a little power, but Young will finish his career with more counting stats because he stayed freakishly healthy.

The Mystery Player is Bill Madlock, who made one appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot and earned 4.5% of the vote.

Hershiser: "He's a Hall of Fame teammate."

If you ignore that one time last offseason when Michael Young very publicly threw a hissy fit demanded a trade because the Rangers signed Adrian Beltre.

Francona: "If he gets to 3,000 hits, doesn't he have to be [in the Hall of Fame]?"

If Johnny Damon reaches 3,000 hits, does HE have to be in the Hall of Fame? I don't think so. Not simply because he reaches an arbitrary statistical plateau. Same goes for Young.

Anyway, this is way too premature. Yes, he has a much better chance of making the Hall if (IFFF) he reaches 3,000. But Young is only two-thirds of the way there, and he's 35. Thirty-five.

He remains, however, an excellent candidate for the Hall of Very Good.