So the idea that Arizona might not even receive a #1 seed in the tournament sounds a bit preposterous. But that scenario is becoming more and more likely with each passing week, because of one important fact: the Selection Committee considers injuries when doling out seeds. All of Arizona's significant wins came with Brandon Ashley in the starting lineup -- and his foot will prevent him from playing again this season. That injury certainly doesn't invalidate those wins, but it does place the onus back on Arizona to prove that the Ashley-less version of this team isn't significantly worse than the one that was widely championed as the favorite to win the national championship. If it can convince the cognoscenti of that fact, then the Selection Committee can justify keeping the Wildcats on the top seed line despite the injury.
So far, though, Arizona hasn't fooled anyone into thinking that this post-Ashley team is on the same basketball plane as the pre-injury version. The Wildcats are 2-2 without Ashley (including the contest in which he suffered the injury) compared to 21-0 with him. That record could easily be 1-3 if not for a narrow escape at home over Oregon. After winning at San Diego State and at Michigan earlier in the season, Arizona has lost both of its road games this month, at California and at Arizona State. Their team shooting percentage in those two losses: 32% and 36%. If these offensive struggles continue, more road losses potentially loom with tricky games at Utah, at Colorado, and at Oregon still remaining. These early returns suggest that the current Arizona team simply isn't the same one that accumulated all those awesome wins a few months ago. That doesn't mean Arizona should be dropped down from a #1 to a #8 seed, or that this version of the team can't win the championship. It does, however, damage the legitimacy of Arizona's overall résumé in the eyes of a Selection Committee that takes such things into consideration when distributing those precious top overall seeds.
But there's another, far more ironic reason why the likelihood of a #1 seed is plummeting: because two of Arizona's prime competitors for those slots are actually going to benefit from their own injury situations. The obvious example is Michigan State. Like Arizona, the Spartans were one of the best teams in the country until they were struck by an injury plague that has resulted in four losses in seven games, including a home defeat to Nebraska. The difference between the two cases, though, lies in the fact that Michigan State's injured players are not out for the season like Brandon Ashley. Chances are that Keith Appling and Branden Dawson will be completely healthy before the NCAA Tournament begins, at which point Michigan State will be at full strength for the first time in months. Assuming that happens, the Selection Committee will likely give Michigan State a pass for the losses it suffered when it was playing with a depleted lineup. Arizona gets no such pass because Brandon Ashley isn't coming back; whatever Arizona is now is what Arizona will be in March. That puts Michigan State ahead of the Wildcats on the #1 seed pecking order.
The same goes for Florida. A short while ago, it seemed like Arizona was miles ahead of Florida because the Gators lost their two most significant road games -- at Wisconsin and at Connecticut. But like Michigan State, Florida will receive special consideration from the Selection Committee in some form because the Gators did not field their full team in either of those two losses. Scottie Wilbekin and Dorian Finney-Smith, two seniors who combine for 22 points per game, did not play at Wisconsin because of team-imposed suspensions. Against UConn, Florida played without a point guard in the final minutes because Wilbekin got hurt late and backup Kasey Hill missed the game with an ankle sprain; the Gators lost by one on a buzzer-beater. 23-0 against all other opponents, Florida has not lost a game with all of its players available. Therefore, in the eyes of the Selection Committee, Florida is virtually just as undefeated as Syracuse or Wichita State. And definitely ahead of Arizona in the line for a #1 seed.
So if the tournament started today, your number one seeds would be Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida, and a hypothetically-healthy-in-the-future Michigan State. Arizona's best chance of sneaking into that top four would come if Michigan State never manages to put its complete team on the floor. But even in that scenario, Arizona would still have to compete for that last spot with a team like Kansas (which should be a #1 if it wins the post-apocalyptic showdown that will be the Big 12 Tournament) or even San Diego State (which has a solid chance of finishing with just two losses). Remarkably, then, it appears as though it took less than three weeks for the team that dominated two-thirds of the season to lose its grip on a number-one seed that at one point was considered to be a foregone conclusion. And what was the cause? Not a dramatic locker room brawl or a string of positive drug tests or a head coach's mental breakdown. Just an injury to that team's fifth-most important player. As if you needed any more proof that greatness in college basketball is a delicate, delicate thing.
So far, though, Arizona hasn't fooled anyone into thinking that this post-Ashley team is on the same basketball plane as the pre-injury version. The Wildcats are 2-2 without Ashley (including the contest in which he suffered the injury) compared to 21-0 with him. That record could easily be 1-3 if not for a narrow escape at home over Oregon. After winning at San Diego State and at Michigan earlier in the season, Arizona has lost both of its road games this month, at California and at Arizona State. Their team shooting percentage in those two losses: 32% and 36%. If these offensive struggles continue, more road losses potentially loom with tricky games at Utah, at Colorado, and at Oregon still remaining. These early returns suggest that the current Arizona team simply isn't the same one that accumulated all those awesome wins a few months ago. That doesn't mean Arizona should be dropped down from a #1 to a #8 seed, or that this version of the team can't win the championship. It does, however, damage the legitimacy of Arizona's overall résumé in the eyes of a Selection Committee that takes such things into consideration when distributing those precious top overall seeds.
But there's another, far more ironic reason why the likelihood of a #1 seed is plummeting: because two of Arizona's prime competitors for those slots are actually going to benefit from their own injury situations. The obvious example is Michigan State. Like Arizona, the Spartans were one of the best teams in the country until they were struck by an injury plague that has resulted in four losses in seven games, including a home defeat to Nebraska. The difference between the two cases, though, lies in the fact that Michigan State's injured players are not out for the season like Brandon Ashley. Chances are that Keith Appling and Branden Dawson will be completely healthy before the NCAA Tournament begins, at which point Michigan State will be at full strength for the first time in months. Assuming that happens, the Selection Committee will likely give Michigan State a pass for the losses it suffered when it was playing with a depleted lineup. Arizona gets no such pass because Brandon Ashley isn't coming back; whatever Arizona is now is what Arizona will be in March. That puts Michigan State ahead of the Wildcats on the #1 seed pecking order.
The same goes for Florida. A short while ago, it seemed like Arizona was miles ahead of Florida because the Gators lost their two most significant road games -- at Wisconsin and at Connecticut. But like Michigan State, Florida will receive special consideration from the Selection Committee in some form because the Gators did not field their full team in either of those two losses. Scottie Wilbekin and Dorian Finney-Smith, two seniors who combine for 22 points per game, did not play at Wisconsin because of team-imposed suspensions. Against UConn, Florida played without a point guard in the final minutes because Wilbekin got hurt late and backup Kasey Hill missed the game with an ankle sprain; the Gators lost by one on a buzzer-beater. 23-0 against all other opponents, Florida has not lost a game with all of its players available. Therefore, in the eyes of the Selection Committee, Florida is virtually just as undefeated as Syracuse or Wichita State. And definitely ahead of Arizona in the line for a #1 seed.
So if the tournament started today, your number one seeds would be Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida, and a hypothetically-healthy-in-the-future Michigan State. Arizona's best chance of sneaking into that top four would come if Michigan State never manages to put its complete team on the floor. But even in that scenario, Arizona would still have to compete for that last spot with a team like Kansas (which should be a #1 if it wins the post-apocalyptic showdown that will be the Big 12 Tournament) or even San Diego State (which has a solid chance of finishing with just two losses). Remarkably, then, it appears as though it took less than three weeks for the team that dominated two-thirds of the season to lose its grip on a number-one seed that at one point was considered to be a foregone conclusion. And what was the cause? Not a dramatic locker room brawl or a string of positive drug tests or a head coach's mental breakdown. Just an injury to that team's fifth-most important player. As if you needed any more proof that greatness in college basketball is a delicate, delicate thing.
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