Football, Fun, and the Philadelphia Eagles

Football gets a lot of credit for being action-packed and exciting compared to a slower sport like baseball. In reality, though, that reputation doesn't reflect reality. Football can be wicked boring sometimes. The average play lasts for a few seconds, followed by forty seconds of nothingness until the action resumes. The pace can be infuriating at times, especially when bland offenses are involved. The final minutes of a close NFL game are thrilling because of the drama and uncertainty, sure, but also because the pace finally accelerates from its standard plodding speed. At that point, when there's little-to-no down-time between snaps, football achieves its peak excitement level. For those two minutes at least, football tempo feels a bit like basketball tempo, which is exhilarating.

That's why Chip Kelly's new Eagles offense is so much fun. He's bringing that quick late-game pace to nearly every offensive snap. The result -- at least on Monday night against the Redskins -- was a terrific spectacle. In Philadelphia's first offensive drive of the season, the Eagles ran off 10 plays in just over three minutes, covering seventy yards. Michael Vick typically snapped the ball with at least twenty seconds remaining on the play clock, which is virtually unheard-of. Unlike Peyton Manning's hurry-up offense (in which Manning will get to the line of scrimmage early but stand there barking instructions for twenty seconds), the Eagles were ready to run a play as soon as the officials placed the ball after the previous down. Washington's defense was noticeably exhausted by the lightning-quick pace. By spreading the field, and keeping defenders on their heels, Philadelphia opened up comically huge running lanes, like the ones on this LeSean McCoy touchdown:

That first drive was so exciting that its anticlimactic result (a turnover that Washington's defense returned for a touchdown) was actually a positive. Because we immediately got to watch the Eagles offense again (they promptly drove 51 yards in less than three minutes). The personnel on this team -- Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and an athletic offensive line -- are such a perfect fit for this style of play. Based on their body language and playful interactions with Chip Kelly on the sidelines, they're having as much fun running this offense as we are watching it. And they're clearly invested in this experiment -- Vick was even spotted blocking downfield. And why wouldn't they be excited and invested? After being restricted by Andy Reid's conservative West Coast offense, these guys are being set loose upon a slower and more-poorly-conditioned world, like pillaging Vikings descending upon an unprotected coastal village. McCoy's 31 carries were a career-high, in only his first game with Kelly in charge. Jackson racked up over 100 yards and a touchdown. Vick looked noticeably more comfortable and effective in a well-protected pocket.

After one game and one win, the numbers are impressive. The Eagles scored at least 26 points just once all of last year; they scored 26 points in the first half against the Redskins. In that half, they also accumulated 21 first downs and ran 53 plays (comparatively, the Panthers had 17 first downs and 50 plays in their entire game on Sunday). Granted, these ridiculous stats were heavily influenced by Washington's insistence on turning the ball over. But by the same token, the Eagles took their foot off the gas in the second half to nurse their 33-7 lead. Ultimately, they ran 77 plays on the day. It shouldn't be surprising if they topped that number in most of the weeks ahead. After the game, Chip Kelly called his team's performance "too slow." A tongue-in-cheek comment, to be sure, but he has a point: Monday night was not this team's ceiling.

I would still bet against the Eagles making the playoffs. Heck, they only beat the incompetent-looking Redskins by six points. Vick will get hurt at some point, and backup Nick Foles won't be nearly as effective. McCoy and Jackson are injury risks, too. The defense won't be great. Maybe opposing teams will figure out ways to stop the onslaught (faking injuries?). But even if they don't win games, the Eagles are the team you should be watching come next Sunday. Sports are fundamentally about entertainment, after all, and the Eagles are obliging.

Mega NFL Preview: The NFC

NFC East: "Eeny, Meeny, Miny, Moe"

1. Dallas Cowboys
You might as well pick the final NFC East standings by drawing team names out of a hat. It's the most unpredictable division in football. The Cowboys are the first-place pick here, just because the coaching looks improved and the Tony Romo-to-Dez Bryant connection could be unstoppable. Romo actually threw for 4,903 yards and 28 touchdowns last year; if he cuts back on the turnovers, then this could be an elite offense. Miles Austin and DeMarco Murray staying somewhat healthy would be a huge boost.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Dez Bryant leads the NFL in touchdown catches.

2. Washington Redskins
On paper, the Redskins are probably better than the Cowboys. The problem is their schedule. They have to play the Packers and Broncos on the road (the Cowboys face them at home), and they also drew the 49ers and the Falcons (the Cowboys won't face either one). Plus, we just can't quantify the potential effect of Robert Griffin's knee surgery on his play. Until we see him in action, this entire offense is a question mark.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Alfred Morris leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns.

3. New York Giants
The Giants could very well end up having the best offense in this division. Eli Manning may enjoy a bounce-back season now that both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are on the field at the same time. David Wilson, who was electrifying at times during his rookie season, is about to become a star. But oof, this defense. Only the historically-bad Saints gave up more yards than the Giants last year. That's not going to cut it in a division with three other high-powered offenses.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: David Wilson becomes the breakout running back of 2013, accumulating 1,500 total yards and 12 touchdowns.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Like the Buffalo Bills, the Eagles will be entertaining even if they don't win games. New head coach Chip Kelly wants to play faster than the rest of the league, and with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, and DeSean Jackson, he has the personnel to do just that. Alas, football is a two-way sport, and the Eagles' hideous defense will have to take the field at some point, too. In a division with Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Robert Griffin III, not being able to get stops will be Philadelphia's downfall. Plus, there's the ever-present threat of the annual Michael Vick injury. If/when he goes down, Kelly's offense will crumble.

Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.

Bonus Prediction: The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing yardage.

NFC North: "Aaron Rodgers. Calvin Johnson. Adrian Peterson. Jay Cutler?"

1. Green Bay Packers
It feels like the Packers were somewhat disappointing last year. The running game was pathetic, their dismal offensive line allowed Aaron Rodgers to be sacked a league-leading 51 times, and ... they still went 11-5 and won the NFC North. A similarly successful season is on tap. Rookie Eddie Lacy, of Alabama Crimson Tide fame, is the running back this franchise desperately needs. Greg Jennings will be more than adequately replaced by the electrifying Randall Cobb, who could lead the league in receptions. This offense is once again balanced and menacing. With the NFL's best quarterback at the helm, a championship is within reach.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Eddie Lacy is the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

2. Chicago Bears

The defense can't possibly be as dominant as it was last year. The onus is on Jay Cutler to improve an offense that accumulated the 5th-fewest yards in the NFL last year. New head coach Marc Trestman should help Cutler maximize his supporting cast, from Matt Forte to impressive second-year wideout Alshon Jeffrey. What's working against the Bears is the cutthroat NFC playoff competition, especially for the wild card. There's a chance that a 9-7 (or even 10-6) record might not be good enough for a playoff spot.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Jay Cutler has his best season as the Bears' quarterback.

3. Detroit Lions

There's a lot to like here. The defensive line could be dominant. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will combine for more touchdowns. The addition of Reggie Bush should revive a running game that has been extinct for a few years. But the weaknesses -- no secondary, no receiving threat opposite Johnson, and crippling immaturity -- are too glaring to ignore. This looks like a six- or seven-win team.

Over/Under 8 Wins: Under.

Bonus Prediction: Reggie Bush leads all running backs in receptions.

4. Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson doesn't play quarterback.

Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.

Bonus Prediction: Matt Cassel makes multiple starts at quarterback over Christian Ponder.

NFC South: "What is This 'Defense' Of Which You Speak?"

1. Atlanta Falcons

Their first-place status is far more precarious than people might imagine. The prolific passing offense will be back, and Steven Jackson represents a big upgrade over Michael Turner on the ground. But anyone who watched last year's playoffs knows just how badly this defense was embarrassed by Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. The offensive line looks like a big problem, too. In a division with some good offenses, the Falcons can't keep relying on winning high-scoring shoot-outs every week. The outcomes of those games are too random. There's risk here.

Over/Under 10 Wins: Over (after all that negativity, still taking the over on 10 ... thought that number would be higher).
Bonus Prediction: Matt Ryan's yardage and touchdowns both decline from last year.

2. New Orleans Saints
Falcons at Saints, Week One. Saints at Falcons, Week 12. Those two games could be the highest-scoring and most-entertaining match-ups of the season. With Sean Payton back on the sidelines after a year-long suspension, and Jimmy Graham healthy, the Saints won't struggle to score gobs of points. But oh, this defense ... this defense surrendered over seven thousand yards last season, the most any team has ever given up. That's 440 yards per game. Oh, the Saints could still make the playoffs this season; even win the division. They're just going to have to average 45 points per game.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Over (flipped a coin, though).
Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees throws 50 touchdown passes.

3. Carolina Panthers
Not as bad as you think. Linebacker Luke Kuechly looked like a beast in the preseason and could be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Cam Newton was tremendous during the second half of last season. They went 3-1 against the Falcons and Saints. The offensive weapons around Newton still leave something to be desired, which is why they're listed third here, but at the very least they're becoming a thing that needs to be taken seriously.
Over/Under 7 Wins: Over (aiming for 8-8).
Bonus Prediction: Newton has more rushing yards and touchdowns than any running back on the team.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, Doug Martin had a tremendous rookie season, and Darrelle Revis is now on the roster, and Vincent Jackson covers up for a lot of bad throws. That's all nice. Picking the Buccaneers last in this division is merely a reflection of how little confidence one should have in quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman may have had the most uninspiring 4,000-yard season in quarterback history last year. He only completed 55% of his passes. He threw TWELVE interceptions in his final seven games. In a division where shoot-outs will be the norm, Freeman is a liability.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Freeman gets benched at some point in favor of backup rookie Mike Glennon (ouch).

NFC West: "Here Be Dragons"

1. Seattle Seahawks
You could argue that the Seahawks are the best team in football. You could also argue that the Seahawks aren't even the best team in their division. The difference between the two opinions is actually miniscule. That's what happens when you share some geography with the 49ers. Both teams are serious Super Bowl contenders regardless of which one wins this division. Seattle's roster looks like a perfectly-balanced masterpiece: a hyper-physical running game, relentless playmakers at every level of a ruthless defense, fierce home field advantage, and an emerging multi-dimensional quarterback. There's so much to like here.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: The Seahawks lead the NFL in point differential.

2. San Francisco 49ers
Eerily similar to the Seahawks: an intensely physical team with a stifling defense, overpowering running game, and dual-threat quarterback. Their weakness is the same, too: the absence of an elite receiver. Both teams lost their #1 options to offseason injuries -- Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree. Now Colin Kaepernick has to make do with the painfully-slow Anquan Boldin and the painfully-inconsistent Vernon Davis. It doesn't particularly matter, though. This is nitpicking. You'll need to play virtually flawless football to beat the Niners this season.
Over/Under 11 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Rookie Quinton Patton evolves into the team's best receiver by season's end.

3. St. Louis Rams
We still need to see growth from Sam Bradford, who has stagnated a bit in the two years since his solid rookie season. Losing trusted target Danny Amendola hurts in that regard. But otherwise, Bradford's supporting cast got much better. Chris Givens made a 50-plus-yard catch in five straight games last year. Lightning-quick rookie Tavon Austin was the first offensive skill player selected in the draft. The offensive line and defense have improved. Granted, a .500 record is a bit much to ask from a team that has to play Seattle and San Francisco four times. Yet this might be the best third-place team in football.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Daryl Richardson rushes for more yards than Steven Jackson had last year (1,042).

4. Arizona Cardinals
How good is this division? The Cardinals have an emerging defense, a quarterback who had four thousand yards passing last year, and one of the best receivers in the NFL ... and they're probably headed for last place. Like the Rams, though, they're light-years better than other bottom-of-the-barrel teams like the Raiders or Jaguars. Say what you want about an over-the-hill Carson Palmer: he's miles better than the trash Arizona had playing quarterback last year (Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer, if you were wondering). The Palmer-to-Larry Fitzgerald connection should raise this offense back towards league-average. The defense is already at that level, if not better. There's nothing particularly exciting about this roster, but it's better than people think. Six wins (while not exactly the loftiest goal) are attainable.
Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: No Arizona Cardinal reaches the 1,000-yard rushing plateau.

Mega NFL Preview: The AFC

As you're probably aware, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in the midst of their most successful season in two decades. With a month left in the season, they're involved in a thrilling three-way death race in the NL Central. On Thursday, Pittsburgh entered play tied for first place in the division (they haven't made the playoffs since 1992). That night, the Pirates faced the Brewers at home, looking for a three-game sweep of the series. Their starting pitcher was rookie Gerrit Cole, the first overall pick in the 2011 Draft. The game drew an 8.3 TV rating.

Simultaneously, the NFL's Pittsburgh Steelers were playing their fourth preseason game, against the Carolina Panthers. Neither team started any of their key players in the meaningless contest. The three quarterbacks who saw time were Landry Jones, Derek Anderson, and Jimmy Clausen. That game's TV rating? 21.3, nearly triple that of the pennant-racing Pirates.

The NFL is a big freaking deal.

AFC East: "Brady Versus Boys"

1. New England Patriots

Wes Welker is in Denver, Danny Woodhead is in San Diego, Aaron Hernandez is in court, Brandon Lloyd is on unemployment, and Rob Gronkowski is in rehab. And the Patriots are still going to win this division by a handful of games. Tom Brady is just going to elevate a new supporting cast to stardom. Going from Welker to Danny Amendola in the slot is actually an upgrade on talent alone, and the only thing keeping him from a monster season (like 1,300 yards, 8 touchdowns) is his health. Shane Vereen is going to be a Darren Sproles-like mismatch out of the backfield. And maybe undrafted free agents Zach Sudfeld and Kenbrell Thompkins -- both generating healthy preseason buzz -- can hold down the fort until Gronkowski returns. The other quarterbacks in this division are Ryan Tannehill, E.J. Manuel, and Mark Sanchez. The Patriots will be juuuuust fine.

Over/Under 11 Wins: Over.

Bonus Prediction: Tom Brady wins the MVP Award.

2. Miami Dolphins

The 2013 Miami Dolphins are eerily reminiscent of the 2012 Miami Marlins: everyone's favorite "sleeper team" that threw a ton of money at free agents but ends up disappointing anyway. Ryan Tannehill needs to make huge strides for this team to go anywhere (he threw 12 TDs and 13 interceptions last year). Their questionable offensive line might not allow him to do so. And their schedule is incredibly tough: they face the Browns, Colts, Falcons, Saints, and Ravens before their Week 6 bye. The x-factor here is second-year running back Lamar Miller. The Dolphins were confident enough in his abilities to let Reggie Bush go in free agency and a breakout season is on tap. Still, this feels like a .500 team at best.

Over/Under 8 Wins: Under.

Bonus Prediction: Lamar Miller accumulates 1,500 total yards.

3. Buffalo Bills

The Bills are going to be one of those bad teams that's still fun to watch. Maybe not in Week One, when they're scheduled to start undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel at quarterback against the Patriots. But once duel-threat first-rounder E.J. Manuel gets healthy, Buffalo will be one of the fastest and most exciting offenses in the NFL. The centerpiece will be C.J. Spiller, who was one of only two running backs in 2012 (Adrian Peterson being the other) to average six yards per carry. He's one of the most elusive players in the NFL yet also ranked near the top of the league in stats like yards after contact and forced missed tackles. Yet even if Spiller has the beastly season he's poised to enjoy, this defense isn't stopping anybody, so it won't particularly matter.

Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under.

Bonus Prediction: C.J. Spiller leads all NFL running backs in yards from scrimmage this season.

4. New York Jets

Fun fact: in his first two seasons, Mark Sanchez beat Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady in road playoff games. Not all fun facts have to make sense, you know.

Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under.

Bonus Prediction: Rex Ryan is NOT the first head coach fired this season.

AFC North: "Mediocrity Disguised as Parity"

1. Cincinnati Bengals

The 2013 NFL season is a big one for Andy Dalton. Armed with an excellent defense and some fantastic offensive weapons, the Bengals are ready for a significant run through the playoffs. They have to find out whether or not Dalton is the quarterback who can take them there. He threw for over 3,600 yards and 27 touchdowns last season, but faded in a big way down the stretch. Is he going to take the Matt Ryan Step Forward or the Mark Sanchez Step Back? The Bengals need to know the answer sooner rather than later.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.

Bonus Prediction: Rookie Giovani Bernard takes over the starting running back job and leads all rookies in yardage.

2. Baltimore Ravens

Flukier championship team: 2007 New York Giants or 2012 Baltimore Ravens?  Which leads to a better question: is Joe Flacco on the same career path as Eli Manning? Manning used that first Super Bowl as a springboard to jump into the ranks of the league's elite quarterbacks. The Ravens clearly think Flacco can do the same. It's certainly possible. Just keep in mind that Flacco has never thrown as many touchdowns as Andy Dalton threw last year (27). The Ravens are going to need him to take that next step, because the secondary players around him are as weak as they've ever been. Bottom line: the Ravens could finish in first place or last, and neither outcome would be particularly surprising. Nothing about the Ravens can be surprising anymore.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over. No ... under. No -- over.

Bonus Prediction: Flacco posts career highs in yardage, touchdowns, and interceptions.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

An ugly, ugly football team. And not even necessarily in a bad way. Just ugly. The offensive line is so bad that they'll probably run the ball at a three-yards-per-carry rate. So they'll have to throw. But the offensive line is so bad that there's no way Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy for 16 games. In a division this tight, those two or three games that Big Ben misses will be the difference between a playoff berth and third place.

Over/Under 9 Wins: Under.

Bonus Prediction: No Steelers running back reaches 1,000 yards on the ground.

4. Cleveland Browns

In each of the last 10 NFL seasons, at least one team has finished first in its division after finishing in last the year before. The Browns have the best chance of accomplishing that feat in the AFC (mostly because the Bills, Jaguars, and Chiefs ain't doing it). The defense is extremely underrated and second-year running back Trent Richardson is poised for a breakout season behind an elite offensive line. They also get to play the Vikings, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, and Jets. Their fate likely lies with the development of quarterback Brandon Weeden under accomplished offensive coordinator Norv Turner. The playoffs might not be in the cards for Cleveland this year. Things are looking up, though.

Over/Under 6 Wins: Over.

Bonus Prediction: After he returns from his two-week suspension, second-year supplemental draft pick Josh Gordon will explode and become the breakout wide receiver of 2013.

AFC South: "50% Relevant"

1. Houston Texans

They're up here in first place by default. The defense will be strong again, and four of their six divisional games are near-automatic cakewalks. But that doesn't hide the fact that the Texans are the most boring good team in football. The offensive play-calling is infuriatingly conservative. Matt Schaub is Joe Flacco without the cannon arm. Arian Foster is aching after more than four hundred and fifty touches last season, including the playoffs. Andre Johnson is aging. The offensive line is declining. This is a very good regular season team that has little to no hope of beating Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in a playoff game.

Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.

Bonus Prediction: Former rushing champion Arian Foster averages fewer than four yards per carry.

2. Indianapolis Colts

There are two directly opposing schools of thought on the 2013 Colts. Predicting their season is all about choosing which narrative your prefer.

Narrative A: The Colts improved from 2-14 in 2011 to 11-5 in 2012; teams that that kind of improbable leap in win-loss record historically always fall back to earth in the following season. They also benefited from a laughably-easy schedule, which won't be the case in 2013. Andrew Luck's 54% completion rate and 18 interceptions (plus many more that were dropped) are concerning. This team screams regression.

Narrative B: Andrew Luck is about to make the leap into stardom. With a more conservative offensive coordinator and better protection up front, Luck's completion and turnover rates will improve, leading to more sustained drives and more touchdowns. The supporting cast is a year older and continues to get better. Ahmad Bradshaw is a huge upgrade for the running game, which was non-existent last year. This team will maintain its 2012 success, and perhaps improve on it.

Like most things, the truth here probably lies somewhere in the middle.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.

Bonus Prediction: Third receiver T.Y. Hilton will collect over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.

3. Tennessee Titans

The drop-off within this division from the Texans and Colts to the Titans and Jaguars is massive. It's difficult to envision the Titans making any noise this year, not with Jake Locker at quarterback. He's too inaccurate and turnover-prone for this offense to find any rhythm, and it's not like the defense can pick up the slack. It wouldn't be surprising if the Titans look to select a quarterback with their first-round pick next year.

Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under.

Bonus Prediction: Chris Johnson enjoys a comeback season, rushing for 1,500 yards behind a revamped offensive line.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Not as bad as you think. Don't get me wrong -- they're awful. Just more "4-12" awful than "2-14" awful. Maurice Jones-Drew is back and healthy in a contract year. Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon each had flashes of brilliance last year as play-making wideouts. They're bad enough to finish in last place, but maybe not bad enough to snag the first overall pick in next year's draft.

Over/Under 5 Wins: Under.

Bonus Prediction: Blaine Gabbert won't be benched for performance reasons at any point in the season.

AFC West: "The Foregone Conclusion"

1. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have question marks all over their defense, no sure thing at running back, and a 37-year-old quarterback with multiple neck surgeries ... and they're a lock to win this division. That's how good this passing game is going to be. Peyton Manning picked the league apart last year and now gets to throw to Wes Welker, too. As the season progresses, rookie Montee Ball will solidify the running game and Von Miller's return from suspension will strengthen the defense. Manning's neck is just about the only thing that can stop this team from the AFC Championship Game.

Over/Under 11.5 Wins: Over.

Bonus Prediction: Manning leads the NFL in passing yardage.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

A massive improvement is coming. There's nowhere to go but up following a 2-14 season. But Alex Smith's limitations as a downfield passer will likely cap that improvement to, say, 7-9 rather than 9-7. Smith's success with the 49ers was created by their run-heavy system and elite offensive line, neither of which will follow him to Kansas City. On the positive side: upgrading from Romeo Crennel to Andy Reid at head coach should be a worth a couple wins alone. And a healthy Jamaal Charles should be in line for another huge season.

Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under (very slightly).

Bonus Prediction: Jamaal Charles accumulates 2,000 yards from scrimmage.

3. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are absolute dreck. Philip Rivers looks cooked, Ryan Mathews has been a dud, the receiving corps is decimated. Even if they play some defense, they won't score any points, so who really cares?

Over/Under 7.5 Wins: UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Bonus Prediction: Philip Rivers makes fewer starts in 2013 than Blaine Gabbert.

4. Oakland Raiders

The preseason quarterback "battle" was between Matt Flynn and Terrelle Pryor. This roster is one giant dumpster.

Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Under, with supreme confidence.

Bonus Prediction: The Oakland Raiders pick first in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Exclusive: Robert Griffin III Does Math

The following text appears in an ESPN.com article posted on Tuesday about Robert Griffin III's recovery from an ACL tear:

But in a sit-down interview with ESPN980 radio in Washington, Griffin said for the first time that he felt completely recovered.
"I would say I'm 100 percent, but you can't put a number on it," he told 980's Kevin Sheehan. "No one ever knows when they are 100 percent or what percentage they're playing at. The biggest thing is, I'm not below 100 percent."

Thanks Robert, you really cleared that up for everyone.

Previewing Week 17: "Playoffs?!"

Last week's predictions: 11/16
Season tally: 161/239, 67%

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-4)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Irrelevant games of the week. Saints-Panthers will be the only entertaining one, especially with Carolina on a three-game winning streak. The Jaguars have nothing to play for besides a top-three draft pick, but they could be a sneaky upset pick at Tennessee. They played the Patriots tough last week and their only home win of the season was against these very Titans. Meanwhile, the Jets' circus rolls on.
The picks: Saints, Jaguars, Bills.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
More irrelevant games. These ones weren't even given point spreads. The Falcons have already locked up home-field advantage and a first-round bye...so should they rest their starters against the Buccaneers? Teams that do so have a poor playoff track record.
The picks: Steelers, Falcons, Chargers.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-7.5)
With four losses in five games, the Giants need major help to reach the playoffs. The easy part is beating the Eagles. The hard part: getting losses from the Cowboys, Vikings, AND Bears.
The pick: Giants.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions
After all that Bears hype early in the season, they're suddenly on the verge of being overtaken in the playoff race...by Christian Ponder and the Vikings. However, a Chicago win and a Vikings loss to the Packers -- the scenario the Bears need to make the playoffs -- isn't exactly far-fetched.
The pick: Bears.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are certainly the more motivated team: they clinch a playoff spot with a win and Adrian Peterson needs just 102 yards to reach 2,000 on the season. If both of those things happen, it will be impossible to deny Peterson the MVP award.
The pick: Packers. They're still in the hunt for the a #2 seed and its accompanying first-round bye.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)
The red-hot Seahawks are a virtual lock to win this game, and if the 49ers also suffer an unlikely home loss to the Cardinals, Seattle would win the NFC West. It seems like an outlandish scenario, but things keep falling the Seahawks' way. In fact, their cornerback Richard Sherman won his appeal of his four-game suspension, allowing him to return for the playoffs and boost an already-elite defense.
The pick: Seahawks.

Houston Texans (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-10)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (-16)
Lots of scenarios are still in play for the top three AFC seeds. Houston wins home-field advantage with a win at the Colts, who can't improve their playoff positioning but won't be pushovers. The Broncos and Patriots are competing for the other first-round bye. Denver should easily clinch it with a win over the lowly Chiefs. The Patriots could actually finish anywhere from the #1 to the #4 seed, depending on what everyone else does.
The picks: Colts, Patriots, Broncos.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
The Bengals are already locked in as the AFC's #6 seed. The Ravens have more at stake: they can move up to the #3 seed with a win and a Patriots loss. That would mean home-field advantage over the Patriots if the two teams happened to meet in the AFC Championship, like last year.
The pick: Ravens.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-3)
The marquee game of the week has the most obvious direct playoff implications: the winner takes the NFC East crown. However, if the Redskins lose, they can also clinch a playoff spot with losses by the Bears and Vikings. Friendly reminder: Tony Romo is 1-5 in his career in elimination games.
The pick: Redskins.

Previewing Week 16

Last week's predictions: 9/16
Season tally: 150/223, 67%

Carolina Panthers (-8.5) @ Oakland Raiders
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets (-2.5)
These are the truly meaningless games of the week. With nothing but draft position on the line, losing is ... more than acceptable, shall we say.
The picks: Panthers, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Chargers.

Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Believe it or not, if the Cowboys beat the Saints, and then the Redskins in Week 17, they would win the division. That Dallas-Washington matchup will be massively important anyway, especially with the Skins unlikely to lose at Philadelphia.
The picks: The NFC East holds serve. Redskins and Cowboys.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs
It's simple for the Colts: win and they're in. Lose and it gets way more complicated, although failing to beat the Chiefs would make them unworthy of the playoffs anyway.
The pick: Colts.

Chicago Bears (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Like the Colts, the Bears have been gifted an easy Week 16 opponent. On the other hand, their outlook is much bleaker thanks to the three teams still alive in the NFC East competing for the wild card spots. A win keeps Chicago alive, at least.
The pick: Bears.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions
The Falcons are one win away from clinching the NFC's #1 seed throughout the playoffs ... which will invariably lead to them resting their starters in a meaningless Week 17 game, sitting out the first week of the playoffs thanks to a bye, and suffering a quick, painless, second-round exit.
The pick: Falcons.

Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans (-8)
It's amazing that the Vikings have probably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL yet would make the playoffs if the season ended today. In other news: has a set of #1 seeds ever inspired less confidence than Houston and Atlanta?
The pick: Texans.

Green Bay Packers (-13.5) @ Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-13)
It's hard to imagine any of these huge favorites losing, but they'll all need help to stay in the hunt for home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Pats and Broncos are still jockeying with each other for a first-round bye, with Denver currently in the lead.
The picks: Packers, Patriots, Broncos.

New York Giants (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Giants are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose, and the Redskins, Cowboys, and Seahawks all win. The Ravens clinch the division with a win. Neither of those things happen.
The pick: Giants.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
The Steelers are technically still in contention for the division title (if they win their final two games and the Ravens lose out). But a loss hands Cincinnati their most realistic shot at the playoffs. The Bengals have been able to hide Andy Dalton's recent struggles against some bad teams. This won't work against the Steelers.

San Francisco 49ers (-1) @ Seattle Seahawks
It's hard to picture the 49ers producing a more entertaining game than last week's win at New England, but this one could top it. The Seahawks are the hottest team in football, they're at home, and they're just as good as the 49ers in every facet of the game. Russell Wilson gets his chance to win the Rookie of the Year award on a national stage.
The pick: Seahawks.

Previewing Week 15

Last week's predictions: 11/16
Season tally: 141/207, 68%

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears
The Bears are like the anti-Giants. Just like last year, they've gotten horrifically cold at precisely the wrong time. After winning seven of their first eight games, they've dropped four of five, including their most recent loss to Christian Ponder's Vikings. Jay Cutler is battling injuries and it's notable if he escapes a play without being knocked onto his back. And now they're underdogs to a Packers team that's within a stone's throw of the division title. It's do-or-die time, Chicago.
The pick: They refuse to die. Bears. This is not a pick based on reason.

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
I did a double-take upon seeing this line. The Giants did, after all, embarrass the Falcons in the playoffs last year while the Falcons haven't exactly inspired confidence recently. Why are the Giants underdogs? Because road teams don't win in Atlanta.
The pick: Giants. Conventional wisdom being tossed out the window in Week 15.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
There was a period of time, earlier in the season, where the Buccaneers would have been considered the superior team in this game. That, however, was before the Buccaneers lost to the Philadelphia Eagles. Losses to the Eagles cause paradigm shifts in how a team is judged.
The pick: Saints.

Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (-3)
In each of the past two weeks, Adrian Peterson has rushed for more yards than Christian Ponder has thrown for. That can be interpreted either as praise for Peterson or an indictment of Ponder. There's no wrong answer.
The pick: Rams.

Washington Redskins (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns
Tricky game for the Redskins even if Robert Griffin is healthy. The Browns are on a sweet little three-game winning streak. Washington can't afford to lose.
The pick: Redskins.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
The state of football in Florida is, um, not good.
The pick: Dolphins.

Denver Broncos (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens' home spell was shattered by the Steelers in The Charlie Batch Game. They did, however, change offensive coordinators after last week's loss. Could be the thing that saves their season, or the thing that just reminds everyone that the real problem might-just-be-Joe-Flacco.
The pick: Broncos.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-9.5)
Texans desperately need a win, so it's tough to see the Colts pulling off the road upset. But the weekend after next, there's a rematch in Indianapolis. And the Texans shouldn't feel as good about that one.
The pick: Texans.

Carolina Panthers @ San Diego Chargers (-3)
It's the tragic tale of two very bad teams showing just enough late, meaningless life to possibly save the jobs of their incompetent coaches.
The pick: Panthers.

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) @ Buffalo Bills
Seattle's 58-0 pasting of the Arizona Cardinals wasn't talked about enough. It was domination of a magnitude usually only seen when Alabama plays Western Kentucky. The Seahawks ran for 284 yards. They forced 8 turnovers and only allowed 10 first downs. Three of Marshawn Lynch's eleven carries went for touchdowns. This all serves as just another reminder that the Cardinals beating the Patriots -- in Foxborough! -- back in Week 2 remains one of the more mystifying NFL results in recent memory.
The pick: Seahawks.

Detroit Lions (-6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
The Lions should be legitimately insulted that they aren't even favored by a touchdown against the team that just lost 58-0.
The pick: Lions.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
A nice showdown between two teams fighting desperately for their playoff lives. It seems like the Steelers always win games like this, and the Cowboys always lose them.
The pick: Steelers.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (-3)
Twice a year the Chiefs play the Raiders, and twice a year people have to pretend that it matters.
The pick: Chiefs.

San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots (-4.5)
The Patriots are scoring over 36 points a game; nobody else is averaging even 30. They just might be unstoppable, even for the 49ers vaunted defense.
The pick: Patriots.

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-2)
Somehow, on Monday Night Football in Week 15 of the regular season, the two quarterbacks on television will be Mark Sanchez and Jake Locker. Seems less than ideal.
The pick: Titans.

Previewing Week 14

Last week's predictions: 10/16
Season tally: 130/191, 68%

Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Here's a summary of what the Baltimore Ravens (Super Bowl contenders, mind you) did last Sunday:
A) they lost
B) at home
C) to the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose quarterback was third-stringer Charlie Batch, the oldest non-kicker in the NFL
D) and the Ravens' best player, Ray Rice, did not touch the football in the fourth quarter.
The pick: There's no way I would ever pick this team to beat Robert Griffin III right now. Redskins.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
The annual "Which Sports Town Does God Hate More?" Bowl.
The pick: Browns.

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Hm, let's see. West Coast team on a four-game losing streak with a lame duck coach flying east for a 1:00 PM game to face perhaps the best pass defense in football. Seriously, good luck with that, San Diego.
The pick: Steelers.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
The Colts had unquestionably the worst roster in football last season en route to a league-worst 2-14 record. Now, a win this week against the Titans puts the Colts at 9-4, all but locking up a playoff berth. Amazing.
The pick: Colts.

New York Jets (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
And you probably thought that Browns-Chiefs was a lock for ugliest game of the week.
The pick: Jets.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson is averaging over 120 yards per game. If he ups that average to 140 over his final four games, he'll break the all-time record for rushing yards in a season. This guy tore his ACL and MCL a year ago.
The pick: If only Peterson had some help. Bears.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ Carolina Panthers
The 11-1 Falcons have been the luckiest team in football so far, winning an unlikely number of close games. Their Week 4 victory at home over the Panthers, for instance, required a 40-yard field goal as time expired. There's upset potential here.
The pick: Falcons.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
Since taking over as the Eagles' starting running back, Bryce Brown has been a revelation. The former seventh-round pick has rushed for 347 yards and four touchdowns in just two games. Brown's breakout performance hasn't mattered much though; the Eagles' defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 16 touchdowns -- without a single interception -- over the past six games.
The pick: Buccaneers.

St. Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills (-3)
Apparently, the Rams only show up when they're on the West Coast. They're 4-0 (plus a tie) against their division rivals in the NFC West, but 1-6 against everyone else.
The pick: Bills.

Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Cowboys have DeMarco Murray back in the fold and Dez Bryant is finally living up to the hype. Dallas is also just a game behind the Giants in the NFC East. It's Tony Romo in a must-win road game in December; what could possibly go wrong?!?
The pick: Cowboys, before I have time to really think about that last statement.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-10)
Here's a simple little timeline:
-->Rams tie 49ers
-->Rams lose to Jets, make Mark Sanchez look good
-->Rams beat 49ers
So do the Rams just have the 49ers' number, or is San Francisco phenomenally overrated? If it's the former, then they'd better pummel the Dolphins at home to prove it.
The pick: 49ers.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (-5)
Will the Giants show up? It's become a weekly mystery. Fortunately for them, Drew Brees has been off his game recently, having thrown seven interceptions against just three touchdowns in his last two contests.
The pick: Giants.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-10)
This season, the Seahawks have now beaten the Bears, the Patriots, and the Packers. All of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. They have just one fewer win than the mighty 49ers. Given how well Russell Wilson has played, I can't think of a potential playoff matchup I'd be more interested in seeing than one involving the Seahawks at home.
The pick: Seahawks.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-10)
At one point last week, the Lions' mathematical probability of beating the Colts sat at 99%. Then they allowed Andrew Luck to score two impossibly late touchdowns, one of which happened on 4th down as time expired. Nobody can top the Lions when it comes to finding new ways to lose.
The pick: Packers.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
A Monday night game with implications for home-field advantage and AFC bragging rights. It's tough to see how the Texans can pull this off on the road. Their defense has slipped in recent weeks and the offense might not be good enough to match Tom Brady if a shootout develops.
The pick: Patriots.

Previewing Week 13

Last week's predictions: 10/16
Season tally: 120/175, 69%

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
This guy linked here is somehow arguing that Jay Cutler deserves MVP consideration, just because the Bears are 31-19 with him and 2-6 without him in his Chicago tenure. As if the Packers would be just dandy with Graham Harrell instead of Aaron Rodgers.
The pick: Bears.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-8)
Teams sometimes have off nights. The Packers suffered such a night against the Giants. They'll take out their frustration on the poor Vikings.
The pick: Packers.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams
This idea has been bandied about, and I like it: the 49ers keep Colin Kaepernick as their starting quarterback, but use Alex Smith as their "closer." Teams use this idea in other sports, and even other positions in football; why not quarterback? Kaepernick's explosiveness and big-play ability helps the 49ers take the lead. Then, Smith comes in late to kill clock, where his conservative style and high completion percentage helps extend drives, take care of the ball, and secure the win. Plus opposing teams have to gameplan for two quarterbacks.
The pick: 49ers.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets (-4.5)
Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow
The pick: Tebow [Jets]

Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs
There's a dearth of upset potential this week, so this one stands out. The problem is: the 3-8 Panthers are just a lot better than their record, and the 1-10 Chiefs are a lot worse than theirs.
The pick: Panthers.

Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions (-5)
The Colts can lose this game and still have a good shot at the playoffs. We're totally headed for a dreamy Colts/Broncos, Manning/Luck first-round match-up, aren't we?
The pick: Lions.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-6)
Here's the funny thing about the Buffalo Bills. They're only 4-7. They're bad. But their rest-of-season schedule looks like this: Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jets. Only the Dolphins game is on the road. The two AFC wild cards are currently up for grabs between the 7-4 Colts and the 6-5 Bengals and Steelers. If the Bills win out, it's completely possible that a 9-7 record is good enough to finally get this franchise back to the playoffs. Of course, now they'll probably find a way to lose at home to the Jaguars.
The pick: Bills.

New England Patriots (-7.5) @ Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are only a game out of a playoff spot! All they have to do is beat the Patriots and the 49ers in back-to-back weeks to get over .500. No problem. Relevant information: the Patriots haven't lost a game in the second half of a season since 2010.
The pick: Patriots.

Houston Texans (-6.5) @ Tennessee Titans
For a 10-1 team, the Texans don't exactly inspire a lot of confidence. They were outplayed by Jacksonville at home and should have lost to Detroit on Thanksgiving. Not to disrespect the hapless Titans, but Houston should be worried about getting exposed by the Patriots in Foxborough next week.
The pick: Texans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos (-7)
The Buccaneers have the best run defense and worst pass defense in football. If the Broncos do anything except let Peyton Manning air it out all afternoon, they're doing it wrong.
The pick: Broncos.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-8)
If Pittsburgh couldn't beat the Ravens at home with Byron Leftwich, then they can't beat the Ravens on the road with Charlie Batch.
The pick: Ravens.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders
You know your franchise is in trouble when: you're playing host to the Browns and you're the underdog.
The pick: Browns.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ San Diego Chargers
The Bengals are what they are at this point. They've beaten the Giants but lost to the Dolphins and Browns. They've enjoyed a pair of three-game winning streaks but have also suffered a four-game losing streak. They are what they are. Meh.
The pick: Bengals.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)
The Philadelphia Phillies have won more recently than the Philadelphia Eagles. After a 3-1 start, it's really looking like the Eagles will finish 3-13.
The pick: Cowboys.

New York Giants (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins
Finally, a great Monday night game after a slew of average ones. Interestingly, the Redskins are closer to first place than any other second-place team in football except for the Packers. This is a meaningful game. And having picked the boring favorite in every single game so far, here's my last chance for an upset.
The pick: Redskins.

Previewing Week 12

Last week's predictions: 13/14
Season tally: 110/159, 69%

Houston Texans (-3) @ Detroit Lions [Thanksgiving Day, Game 1]
Seems like this hasn't been talked about enough, so here we go: the Houston Texans, alleged Super Bowl contenders, almost lost to Jacksonville's NFL franchise last week. Bad sign?
The pick: Despite that scare, still taking the Texans. And what does that say about the Lions?

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) [Thanksgiving Day, Game 2]
Here's the thing about the Dallas Cowboys. They're suddenly back in the playoff hunt thanks to two consecutive wins. But those wins were against the Nick Foles Eagles and the Cleveland Browns. The Cowboys are not a good football team.
The pick: Redskins.

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ New York Jets [Thanksgiving Day, Game 3]
Quietly, the Patriots are only a few points off the record-breaking offensive pace they set back in 2007 when Tom Brady was throwing bombs to Randy Moss every week. They're just far more balanced this year, which should make it easier to stomach the loss of Rob Gronkowski.
The pick: Patriots.

Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-8)
Which of these second-year quarterbacks would you rather have, based on what they've done this year?
Player A: 2,559 yards, 20 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs, 11 interceptions, 64% completion rate, 92.7 QB rating
Player B: 2,395 yards, 9 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs, 10 interceptions, 57% completion rate, 79 QB rating
I'm guessing you chose Player A over Player B, which means you chose Andy Dalton of the Bengals over Cam Newton.
The pick: Bengals.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-1)
Without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers still almost beat the Ravens at home. I actually think the Browns on the road is the tougher challenge.
The pick: Browns.

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts (-3)
"Betting against Andrew Luck at home" is quickly becoming one of those things you DON'T do.
The pick: Colts.

Denver Broncos (-10.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Quite honestly, it would be shocking if the Broncos won by less than 20 points.
The pick: Broncos.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars almost beat the Texans last week. In Houston. With their backup quarterback and a running back named Jalen Parmele. And they're probably still going to lose to the terrible Titans anyway, because they're the Jaguars.
The pick: Titans.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
No point spread has been posted for this game yet because of the uncertainty surrounding Jay Cutler's health. If he plays, the Vikings should be toast. If not...the door will be open for an upset.
The pick: Don't think Cutler suits up. Vikings.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Ryan threw five interceptions last week. Five! At home! Plus the Buccaneers are red-hot. They're three games back of the Falcons and they still play each other twice. This is a big chance for Tampa to make a statement.
The pick: What the heck, I'm riding the Buccaneers bandwagon. Tampa Bay.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ Miami Dolphins
Are the Seahawks the most low-profile contender out there? They're 6-4. Russell Wilson is making plays, Marshawn Lynch is perpetually in Beast Mode, and their defense is great. The weakness: a 1-4 road record.
The pick: Seahawks fix those road woes with a win.

Baltimore Ravens (-1) @ San Diego Chargers
Love the fact that Baltimore is only favored by one point, because it means we as a country have finally acknowledged that Joe Flacco isn't a very good quarterback. Especially not on the road. Still, this spread fails to properly recognize the steaming hot pile of garbage that is the San Diego Chargers.
The pick: Ravens. If they lose this game, they can't legitimately call themselves Super Bowl contenders.

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) @ New Orleans Saints
Colin Kaepernick or Alex Smith? Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick? Someone's feelings are about to get hurt. Don't think it ends up mattering, because the suddenly-scorching-hot Saints win either way.
The pick: Saints.

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
One of these teams might win, but the rest of us all lose.
The pick: Rams.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (-2.5)
Seriously, the Giants follow the same script every single season. It's eerie. Spoiler alert: this is the game where they finally snap out of their funk and play well against a good opponent, yet still lose at the very end in a heartbreaker, putting their playoff chances in further jeopardy.
The pick: Packers.

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
I can imagine the TV guys all sitting around a table back in May or whenever they put together the schedule, and one of them is saying, "Guys, know what would be an awesome Monday Night game right after Thanksgiving? Panthers-Eagles! Michael Vick against Cam Newton in primetime! The Dream Team against the Rookie of the Year! What could possibly go wrong?!" Well, sir, everything went wrong. Everything.
The pick: Panthers. The Eagles have phoned in the season.

Previewing Week 11

Last week's predictions: 9/13 (plus a tie!)
Season tally: 97/145, 67%

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Ugh. The NFC East has been such a disappointment this year. What should be an exciting RGIII-Michael Vick showdown will instead be a back-and-forth affair of cement-handed Redskins receivers dropping passes and the cement-footed Nick Foles taking sacks.
The pick: Redskins.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions
The Packers ought to be favored by more than three points. Most people consider the Bears and Texans to be the two best teams in the NFL, and Green Bay pounded both of them into oblivion. Detroit, on the other hand, remains Detroit.
The pick: Packers.

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
Unbeaten no more! The Falcons took their first loss at New Orleans mostly because plodding running back Michael Turner couldn't convert in multiple short-yardage situations. If the Falcons start phasing him out of their offense in favor of more dynamic options...watch out.
The pick: Falcons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) @ Carolina Panthers
For some reason, these teams are perceived as equals. The Buccaneers are a good football team. The Panthers are not.
The pick: Buccaneers.

Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
As little sense as this would make...wouldn't a Cowboys home loss to Cleveland make so much sense? Right when they've started to pick up some momentum? That would be so...Dallas.
The pick: Cowboys. Dallas won't blow this, right?

New York Jets @ St. Louis Rams (-3.5)
Mark Sanchez has the worst completion percentage in the league, at 52%, and we've all basically agreed that he's an astoundingly bad quarterback. So here's a memo to the people clamoring for a quarterback change in New York: Tim Tebow's career completion percentage is 48%.
The pick: Rams.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-9.5)
Now this is interesting. The Patriots' secondary is mostly a joke. But can Andrew Luck take advantage on the road, where he's been mostly shaky?
The pick: Luck would be the first rookie quarterback to win in Foxborough since 1995. Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-15)
Seriously, credit to Blaine Gabbert if he makes it out of this game alive.
The pick: Texans.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Forcing the Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers into overtime last week before losing on a horrific Matt Cassel interception might be the high point of the 2012 Chiefs season, which...does not bode well for their chances of victory in this game.
The pick: Bengals.

New Orleans Saints (-5) @ Oakland Raiders
Fantastic. With the way these teams love to throw, and how bad their defenses are, this game is a prime candidate for Most Entertaining Shootout of the Season.
The pick: Saints.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Given how well Peyton Manning is playing, and how talented his receivers are, and how his defense is improving...are the Broncos the best team in the AFC?
The pick: Broncos.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are plugging in Byron Leftwich for the injured Ben Roethlisberger. My faith in the Road Version of Joe Flacco is so low that I actually prefer Leftwich in this one.
The pick: Steelers.

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-6)
Pretty much the exact opposite of the Saints-Raiders game. Jason Campbell is taking over for the concussed Jay Cutler and Alex Smith is recovering from his own concussion, so pass attempts should be few and far between. Might as well play this game in 1960.
The pick: 49ers.

Previewing Week 10

Last week's predictions: 12/14
Season tally: 88/132, 66%

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Would now be an okay time to mention that rookie Andrew Luck is on pace to throw for over 4,800 yards on the season? A feat accomplished by only seven other quarterbacks in history? No? Oh, you'd rather talk about Michael Vick's job security and Tim Tebow? Cool.
The pick: Colts on Thursday night.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-11)
Buffalo's C.J. Spiller is leading the NFL with 7.2 yards per carry. The Bills gave him six carries last week. Because apparently they thought Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the ball 38 times against the Texans was a superior game plan. In related news, the Bills shockingly failed to score a touchdown last week.
The pick: Patriots.

New York Giants (-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals
This just screams 'Bengals upset win.' The problem: the Bengals aren't that good. Ironically, I'd take Cincy if the Giants were at home.
The pick: Giants.

San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
"The Chargers are 4-4, and just a game out of first place!"
This is technically a true statement. But the Chargers only have four wins because they've played the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs (twice). They're also 26th in the league in total offense per game, which is even worse than the offense led by Jay Cutler. See, manipulating information is fun and easy.
The pick: Buccaneers.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are the anti-Chargers; they're a bit better than their 2-6 record suggests. Their last five games: win at Redskins, loss at Bears by one, loss vs Cowboys by five, loss vs Seahawks by four, loss at Falcons by two. That was a very tough stretch, and with a little luck Carolina could've escaped with some extra wins.
The pick: Actually picking the Panthers to win is a whole different ballgame. Broncos.

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (-6)
Here's what the Titans did in each of their first half possessions against the Bears last week: fumble, punt, blocked punt (Bears TD), punt, punt, interception (Bears TD), fumble, punt, fumble, field goal. Ouch.
The pick: Dolphins.

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
The Ravens, and especially Joe Flacco, have struggled for long stretches this season despite their solid record. But don't pick against them when they're at home. Fun thing to watch: Carson Palmer's passing attempts.With Darren McFadden likely out, Palmer could easily throw 50 or 60 times. It'll be good theater.
The pick: Ravens.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ New Orleans Saints
Has anyone even noticed that the Falcons are still undefeated at the season's halfway point?
The pick: Falcons.

Detroit Lions (-2) @ Minnesota Vikings
Three weeks ago, the pick would've been Minnesota. Since then, Vikings QB Christian Ponder has twice thrown for less than 70 yards in a game. That won't beat Matthew Stafford.
The pick: Lions.

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Two solid prediction rules intersect in this game: never pick against the Seahawks at home, and never pick the Jets.
The pick: Seahawks.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Feeling pressure to pick an upset, because it's been all chalk so far, but...the Cowboys do seem better than the Eagles right now. Both teams have underachieved; at least the Cowboys are underachieving against good teams.
The pick: Cowboys.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
We should all stop for a moment and recognize the awesomeness that is the 49ers' offensive line. The team averages 5.6 yards per rushing attempt (tops in the NFL) and enabled Alex Bleeping Smith to complete 18 of his 19 passes last Monday night, almost setting the record for single-game completion percentage.
The pick: 49ers.

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears (-1)
Finally, good upset potential! The Bears have gotten Herculean efforts from their defense every week to pull out victories, but A) that seems pretty unsustainable and B) it might not work against Houston's conservative offense. Which means Jay Cutler will need to win the game for Chicago, and, well...
The pick: Texans.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5)
More interesting than the outcome of this game (a foregone conclusion) is whether or not the Chiefs will finally take their first non-overtime lead of the season. What a sad statement that is.
The pick: Steelers. And no, the Chiefs will never have the lead.

Previewing Week 9

Last week's predictions: 9/14
Season tally: 76/118 (64%)

Denver Broncos (-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Broncos are "only" 4-3, but their three losses are at the Falcons, home to the Texans, and at the Patriots. No shame there. Their schedule the rest of the way? Bengals, Panthers, Chargers, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Ravens, Browns, Chiefs. That 4-3 record could easily become 11-5.
The pick: Broncos.

Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers (-10)
The Cardinals have gone from 4-0 to 4-4 and own possibly the worst offense in football. Good luck in Lambeau, John Skelton.
The pick: Packers.

Miami Dolphins (-2) @ Indianapolis Colts
Only the Patriots, Texans, and Ravens have a better record in the AFC than the Dolphins. Who let this happen?
The pick: Dolphins. They're on a roll.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns
The Ravens on the road this season: loss at Philadelphia, 9-6 win at Kansas City, blowout loss at Houston. They might beat the Browns, but if they do, it won't be convincing.
The pick: Ravens, ugly.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-10)
Buffalo is giving up over 175 rushing yards per game. Luckily the Texans don't like to run--oh wait.
The pick: Texans in a blowout.

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins (-3)
According to the Redskin Rule, a Washington win this Sunday before the presidential election almost always means victory for the incumbent party. But more important than Obama-Romney: would you rather have Cam Newton or Robert Griffin III?
The pick: Redskins.

Detroit Lions (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are 1-6 and Maurice Jones-Drew is out indefinitely. At what point do they just start tanking for the #1 overall pick next year? A Jags-Chiefs race for the worst record in football would be so gripping.
The pick: Lions.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans
Jay Cutler has thrown 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. The Bears defense has intercepted 16 passes, scored six touchdowns, and only allowed six passing touchdowns. Jay Cutler should be eternally grateful that he never has to face the Bears defense.
The pick: Bears.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
At home, Seattle has beaten the Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots. Don't mess with Seattle at home.
The pick: Seahawks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Oakland Raiders (-1.5)
Oakland is the favorite! Sure, the Raiders are on a two-game winning streak, but only thanks to the two worst teams in football, the Jaguars and Chiefs. The Buccaneers have been lighting up the scoreboard recently and just blew out the Vikings in Minnesota.
The pick: Buccaneers.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants (-3)
Isn't this the part of the year where the Giants undergo their annual inexplicable losing streak and we question Tom Coughlin's job security? New York has suffered through close calls the last two weeks against the Redskins and Cowboys...the Steelers are a whole different animal...and the Giants are playing at home. Smells like trouble.
The pick: Steelers.

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
The still-undefeated Falcons survived their trap game at Philadelphia last week, and they did so with flying colors. Can the massively-flawed Cowboys hand the Falcons their first loss of the year? In Atlanta? On Sunday night? Don't count on it.
The pick: Falcons.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (-3)
Impossible game to predict. Two terribly dysfunctional teams. Jobs are on the line. Defenses are collapsing. Anything could happen.
The pick: Home team by default: Saints. With no confidence whatsoever.

Futility, Personified

After losing to the San Diego Chargers on Thursday Night Football, the Kansas City Chiefs have played eight football games this season.

They have yet to take a lead in any of their games.

Just process that for a second. How does that even happen? The worst football teams in the league hold leads from time to time, even if only by accident. The Chiefs haven't even stumbled into a lead once. It's not like they've played some nightmarish schedule, either. They've faced the Raiders. And the Buccaneers. They were blown out by the Bills, who suck. They've now lost big to the Chargers twice, and we all know the Chargers aren't any good either.

The Chiefs came close to taking a lead against the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. Tantalizingly close. They quickly handed San Diego a 10-0 lead, but battled back to 10-6 entering the fourth quarter. 10-6! A touchdown would have given the Chiefs a lead! Alas, it was not meant to be. Philip Rivers threw a touchdown pass to put the Chargers up 17-6. On the Chiefs' ensuing possession, quarterback Matt Cassel fumbled in the end zone and the Chargers recovered for another touchdown. 24-6. The Chiefs tried another drive, crossed midfield, and Cassel promptly threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. 31-6. The Football Gods had dangled the possibility of a lead, or even a win (!) in front of Chiefs fans, only to yank it away in the most forceful manner possible. The final score ended up being 31-13, only because Cassel threw a meaningless touchdown to something called a Shaun Draughn during garbage time. Although I believe it was Plato who once said, "When the Chiefs are on the field, it's always garbage time."

"But wait, good sir!" you might be saying right now. "The Chiefs' record is 1-7! They have a win! How can they still be waiting for their first lead of the season?" And I would respond to your wise comment by pointing out that the Chiefs won their only game in overtime against the Saints on a game-ending field goal. So technically, the one time this season when the Chiefs grabbed a lead the game instantly ended, the universe unable (or unwilling?) to allow this miserable team to play football for even one second while holding a lead, because the Football Gods have deemed them Unworthy to do so.

The Kansas City Chiefs are futility, personified.

Previewing Week 8

Last week's predictions: 12/13
Season tally: 67/104 (64%)

New England Patriots (-7) @ St. Louis Rams
NFL's annual trip to London won't be a blowout, in all likelihood. The Patriots have had trouble putting away inferior opponents (see: Sanchez, Mark) and give up too many long pass plays. Still...the Rams...
The pick: Patriots.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Suddenly the Titans are on the verge of a .500 record in a conference where a .500 team or two might actually make the playoffs. If Matt Hasselbeck wins this game, which would be his third in a row, it will be interesting to see if the team will still hand the keys back to Jake Locker when he's healthy.
The pick: Titans.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers (-14.5)
A fourteen-and-a-half point spread! That's what happens when you're an inept offensive team like the Jaguars, and then you lose your best only offensive player, Maurice Jones-Drew, to a foot injury, and you're up against the best quarterback in football.
The pick: Packers.

San Diego Chargers (-3) @ Cleveland Browns
Tricky! Are the Chargers still the same inept team that got embarrassed in that Monday Night debacle? Or have they used their bye week to fix what ails them? Either way, San Diego will make this game tougher than it needs to be. Result will still be in doubt in the fourth quarter.
The pick: Chargers.

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Oh god oh god oh god oh god this is such a trap game for the undefeated Falcons. Let me count the ways: they're in Philadelphia. They haven't exactly been sharp the last couple weeks. Andy Reid's Eagles are notoriously good coming off a bye. Reid fired his incompetent defensive coordinator, so everyone's been put on notice. Michael Vick is playing his former team. So very many traps. Oh man oh man. Warning lights flashing everywhere.
The pick: Sticking with the Falcons, because they're just better then the Eagles, and I have a disproportionate amount of faith in Matt Ryan, but still can't help feeling like...

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Who do you trust more: a struggling Matthew Stafford against a formidable Seahawks secondary, or an incompetent-on-the-road Russell Wilson? Yes, 'none of the above' was the correct answer.

The pick: Seahawks.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-2)
Toss-up. The bye will have everyone forgetting that the Dolphins aren't as bad as we think they are, and the Patriots' terrible defense currently has us thinking Mark Sanchez is better than he actually is. Let's not suddenly start buying into the Jets, please.
The pick: Jets. After all that, I'm picking the Jets. I've been suckered.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-7.5)
The Jaguars upsetting the Packers would be the most shocking result of the week, but the Panthers beating the Bears would be right up there. Carolina is a sinking ship and the Bears are sailing right along, captained by their dominant defense. Seafaring metaphors for all.
The pick: Bears.

Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
Oh, the places they'll go! Two clutch, mobile quarterbacks who are on fire right now. Neither defense is stopping anybody. Final score should be 34-31 or something. Maybe overtime. Feels like neither team should lose.
The pick: Steelers.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-1)
Good lord. Carson Palmer and Brady Quinn are ready to engage in an epic quarterback duel of misery. And all we can do is watch helplessly. Like patients etherized upon a table.
The pick: Ugh. Raiders.

New York Giants (-2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
Remember when the Cowboys beat the Giants in Week 1? Yeah, me neither.
The pick: Giants.

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Peyton Manning vs. Drew Brees on Sunday night. Really psyched about this one. Both team's punters can take the night off. Their services won't be needed.
The pick: Broncos.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals
Feels like the NFC West is getting a ton of prime-time games this season. We know exactly what those deathmatches are bringing to the table: physical play, good special teams, great defense, field goals, shoddy quarterback play, and a final score decided by single digits.
The pick: 49ers.

Previewing Week 7

Last week's predictions: 8/14
Season tally: 55/91, 60%

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
This is the best kind of football game: when the two worst defenses in the NFL have at it. Hopefully the final score will be 55-51 or something.
The pick: Bills.

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
The Cardinals have once again gone from Kevin Kolb to John Skelton at quarterback, and no one's ever really sure if that's an upgrade or downgrade. More pressingly, Skelton's patchwork offensive line has to fend off Jared Allen against a Vikings team that will probably have the lead for most of the game. So good luck with that.
The pick: Vikings.

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Andrew Luck and the Colts have been significantly better at home (they beat the Packers!) than on the road (crushed by the Jets!). Meanwhile, the Browns have been pretty bad regardless of location. Ergo...
The pick: Colts.

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-7)
These are the only two over-.500 teams in the AFC, and there is absolutely no way that the Texans should be favored by a full touchdown. Their five wins were against the Dolphins, Jaguars, Broncos, Titans, and Jets; they were crushed by their best opponent, the Packers last week. The Texans are not THIS good. Yet on the flip side: Joe Flacco is playing on the road and the Ravens defense is incredibly banged-up. So pick your poison.
The pick: Texans. The AFC is a terrible conference.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ St. Louis Rams
Really can't see any route to victory for the Rams because that would require Sam Bradford outscoring Aaron Rodgers while having no offensive linemen or wide receivers to speak of.
The pick: Packers.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Depending on the outcome of this game, SportsCenter will spend all of next week discussing either Cam Newton's big slump or Tony Romo's failures as a quarterback and all-around human being. Can't wait, guys!!!
The pick: Cowboys.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-6)
This feels like the perfect time for that typical deflating Giants loss. It would make too much sense: they're at home, coming off a monumental win in San Francisco against the 49ers, and getting healthier. The Giants always have a few totally unexpected losses every year that make everyone hastily jump off their bandwagon. Danger: this might be one of those times.
The pick: Giants...precariously.

New Orleans Saints (-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pretty much a must-win game for the Bucs if they want to stay at least somewhat relevant, or as relevant as a Tampa Bay sports franchise can possibly be. The Saints are coming off a bye...not sure if the home team can pull off the mini-upset.
The pick: Saints.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-10.5)
The Jets are getting 10-and-a-half points despite having the same record as their opponent (3-3). That tells you all you need to know about confidence in this football team. The Patriots haven't been able to hold onto late leads this season but in all likelihood they won't have to worry about Mark Sanchez storming back in the fourth quarter, because that's a hypothetical that even my imagination can't quite picture.
The pick: Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders (-6)
Who cares? (outside of 50,000 bloodthirsty Oakland residents, that is.) Carson Palmer and Blaine Gabbert locked in an epic War of Punts isn't something that deserves to be televised in people's homes.
The pick: Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Titans and Browns have combined for three wins this year; two of them came against the Steelers and Bengals. These are overrated football teams. A.J. Green is the only reason to watch this game because he's terribly exciting and, just 20-odd games into his career, he might already be the best wide receiver in football not named Calvin.
The pick: Steelers.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)
The Lions never lead in football games. They either lose badly, or win via frantic comeback and last-second field goal. This will play right into Chicago's hands on Monday night: with an excellent pass defense and running game, the Bears are built to play from ahead.
The pick: Bears.

The Best Type of Criticism

Before the Green Bay Packers' 42-24 humiliation of the then-undefeated Houston Texans (on their own turf!), Aaron Rodgers was having a 'disappointing' season by his standards. His team was 2-3, having been robbed of a sure-win in Seattle (maybe you've heard about that) and something didn't seem right compared to the well-oiled machine that the Packers offense was last year. Entering Sunday night, Rodgers had 10 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a QB rating of 96.9. Sure, numbers that Ryan Fitzpatrick would kill for, but not MVP-level.

So what's the problem? On CBS Sports' pre-game show "The NFL Today," Hall of Famer Shannon Sharpe provided a potential diagnosis:

"I think they have some deeper issues, but let's get to the surface issues right now. They can't run the football, so that puts a lot of pressure on Aaron Rodgers and that poor offensive line. Aaron Rodgers doesn't always do a great job of getting rid of the football on rhythm. So now he's taking some unnecessary sacks."

Sounds fair enough. But Sharpe goes on:

"But what I see is a lot of finger pointing by Aaron Rodgers. I don't really know Aaron Rodgers, haven't been around him. But he strikes me as a guy that, it's always someone else's fault other than his own. I'm not so sure, I'm not so sure, that deep down inside, how well his receiving corps really likes Aaron Rodgers...I tell you what else, just because you're a great quarterback and an MVP quarterback that doesn't make you a great person. There is a difference between the two."

All right, so Shannon Sharpe pretty much just accused the reigning MVP of the following things on national television:

-he blames others for his failures

-he deflects attention off himself

-his receivers secretly don't like him and they don't even sit together at recess

-he's not a good person

And what expert testimony is Shannon Sharpe basing these not-harmless accusations on?

"I don't really know Aaron Rodgers, haven't been around him."

What was that, sorry?

"I don't really know Aaron Rodgers, haven't been around him."

Sharpe is basically calling Rodgers a bad person, questioning his personal relationship with his receivers, and pretending to report live from inside the quarterback's head, but he simultaneously admits--in the very same paragraph--that he doesn't really know the guy he's talking about. What?

This reminds me of one of my favorite posts from the satirical blog "Fire Joe Morgan." The post was written in response to an article written for the Chicago Tribune in March, 2008. The Tribune author had seen the baseball season projections produced by a computer system at Baseball Prospectus, and the computer had projected the hometown White Sox for a mediocre third-place finish and a 77-85 overall record. So the snarky Tribune author, clearly miffed, had this to say about the computer's prediction:

>>I know as much about computers as I do about astronomy, but I believe the computer term for Baseball Prospectus' Sox prediction is "fatal error."

To which the writers at Fire Joe Morgan responded:

>>Nothing better than the profession of complete ignorance, followed immediately by a pronouncement of certitude. "I have never heard a piece of orchestral or chamber music in my life, but I can say conclusively that Dvorák's Piano Quintet in A Major, Op. 81, is a piece of shit."

And that's pretty much all you can say about Sharpe: a profession of complete ignorance, followed by character assassination on national television.

Anyway, I think Rodgers' receivers are quite fond of their quarterback today. On Sunday night, they had six touchdown passes to divide up among themselves.

Previewing Week 6

Joint baseball/football edition!

MLB Playoffs

Giants vs Cardinals: Both teams seem to have nine lives. The Cardinals rallied from a 6-0 deficit to beat the Nationals in Game 5 and the Giants won three straight in Cincinnati after losing the first two games at home. The fact that both teams had to play five games in the Division Series has misaligned their starting rotations, but that might hurt the Giants more because they're more reliant on one guy, Matt Cain, than the Cardinals are. Plus, the righty-heavy St. Louis lineup will make life tough for lefty San Francisco starters Madison Bumgarner and Barry Zito (if he gets a start). Why pick against the Cardinals at this point?
Prediction: Cardinals in six games.

Yankees vs Tigers: Another evenly matched series. The Tigers might have the inferior bullpen but their hitters aren't in as deep of a funk as the Yankees'. Detroit also caught a break in the scheduling: even though both teams had to play five games in the Division Series, and the Yankees are the higher seed, the Tigers got an extra day off to set their rotation while New York must play five playoff games in five days. That means Hiroki Kuroda will be starting on short rest in Game 2. C.C. Sabathia will also need to pitch on short rest once if he wants to make two starts in the series, while his Tigers counterpart Justin Verlander will be fully rested for both Game 3 and a potential Game 7. The pitching matchups, and the different places these two offenses are in right now, favor Detroit.
Prediction: Tigers in six games.

NFL Week 6

Last week's predictions: 10/14
Season tally: 47/77, 61%

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) @ Cleveland Browns
The Browns are still winless despite what seems like steadily improving play from rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden and rookie running back Trent Richardson. It feels like they're due for a win already. The Bengals, meanwhile, looked pretty anemic in a loss at home (!!!) to the Dolphins. This is your shot, Cleveland!
The pick: Browns "improve" to 1-5.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (-3.5)
Really can't fathom why the Jets are favored in this game. Maybe just because they played the Texans tough on Monday night. Still, they're going up against a suddenly-dangerous Colts team that just beat the Packers. And Mark Sanchez is still Mark Sanchez.
The pick: Colts pull off the "upset."

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
Easily the ugliest game of the week. Brady Quinn is starting in place of an injured Matt Cassel (which might not actually be a downgrade...) and both teams have been embarrassing. Watch if you enjoy punting.
The pick: Chiefs.

Oakland Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
Mismatch of the week. There may not be a wider discrepancy in football between the Falcons dynamite passing game and the Raiders sad secondary. Enjoy the feast, Falcons.
The pick: Falcons.

Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
A nice test for the Cowboys, especially for their revamped pass defense. Contending with Joe Flacco is much more difficult when he's playing at home. The Cowboys desperately need a big win but they just might not be very good after all.
The pick: Ravens.

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Apparently the Eagles' strategy for winning games is to give the football away for most of the game, take the lead on their final possession thanks to an ugly fourth-quarter drive, leave enough time on the clock for the other team to drive down the field, and pray that their kicker misses the uprights as time expires. It's worked for two straight weeks. But goshdarn if it just doesn't feel like a winning strategy.
The pick: Lions.

St. Louis Rams @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
A sneaky-interesting game between two bad teams that are actually less bad than we thought. Speaking of 'less bad than we thought': Dolphins rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. Lost in the Luck/RGIII frenzy, he's been quite decent.
The pick: Dolphins.

New England Patriots (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks
Oh, this has upset written all over it. The Seahawks defense has been brutal to opposing quarterbacks. But the Patriots offense is no longer one-dimensional. Their ability to lean on their new running game should prove to be the difference.
The pick: Patriots.

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (-4)
This could rival Chiefs-Bucs as the ugly game of the week. The Bills have been a complete mess. But the Cardinals have no offensive line. But the Bills can't stop anyone. But the Cardinals might have the worst running game in football. And so on.
The pick: Edge goes to, I suppose, the better defense. And the home team. Cardinals.

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins (-1.5)
This line makes even less sense than the Colts-Jets spread. The Redskins defense has been a joke while the Vikings have been one of the best all-around teams in football so far. And Robert Griffin III suffered a concussion last week. Minnesota obviously still isn't getting any respect.
The pick: Vikings.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (6.5)
This isn't the same 49ers team that the Giants beat in last year's NFC Championship Game. This team has a much more competent passing game and an even better rushing attack. The Giants can absolutely win this game because they're never out of it with Eli Manning under center. It'll just be very difficult.
The pick: 49ers.

Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
One of the more even matchups between a 2-3 team and a 5-0 team. The Texans have played a cupcake schedule so far and certainly aren't "best team in football" good. But are they good enough to beat a Packers team that just hasn't hit its stride yet? Certainly. Along with Giants-Niners, this is a must-watch: top quarterback against top defense.
The pick: Texans.

Denver Broncos (-1) @ San Diego Chargers
Peyton Manning is back on Monday Night Football and this game should end in a better result than his three-interception Falcons debacle. The Chargers just lost to the awful Saints (a winless team with an interim-interim-head coach); their 3-2 record is a nice little mirage.
The pick: Broncos.