The East is basically divided into two stratospheres. The first contains Indiana and Miami, the two best teams in the region. The second is made up of everybody else, and they're all basically on the same plane. The "gap" between, say, #5 UNLV and #12 California is minuscule despite the seeding difference. So an Indiana-Miami regional final seems inevitable -- but the rest of the bracket? Wide open and totally unpredictable. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The most over-seeded team in the tournament this year, by far, is Marquette. The Golden Eagles did win a share of the Big East title, which is probably why the Selection Committee saw fit to award them a #3 seed. Still, their only significant win away from home all year was an overtime victory at Pitt two months ago. They don't have a dominant player and can't shoot three-pointers. Plus, they're matched up against a red-hot, well-coached Davidson team that's a lot better than the average 14-seed. 3-seeds don't lose in the first round very often, but Marquette is closer to a 5-seed. And even if the Golden Eagles win, they draw either Butler or Bucknell in the Round of 32. Marquette isn't doing much damage this year.
2. A 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in virtually every tournament for the last quarter-century. Those are the most popular upset picks and usually they jump right off the page. This year, they're actually tough to find. Most of the 5-seeds are excellent teams (Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, VCU). The one exception is UNLV in this region. The Rebels look vulnerable against #12 California, for more reasons than anyone should need. First of all, there's no way the Rebels deserved a 5-seed. Like Marquette, they hardly did anything away from home. That's a particular problem in this first-round game, which is taking place in San Jose, a virtual home game for Cal. Then, consider that 5-seeds from non-Power-Six conferences are particularly vulnerable to early upsets (like last year, when Temple and Wichita State were felled in the first round), especially when they face 12-seeds that are from a Power Six conference, like Cal. And the Mountain West Conference's historical record in the NCAA tournament is quite poor. If a 12-over-5 upset is going to happen, all signs point to Cal-over-UNLV as the likeliest possibility.
3. Of all the double-digit seeds in the tournament, #11 Bucknell has one of the best shots at reaching the Sweet Sixteen despite drawing Butler in the first round. The Bison have already played tough competition this season, almost winning at Missouri, and they have a dominant frontcourt presence in Mike Muscala. If they advance, their next opponent could be the overrated Marquette -- or maybe we get a Bucknell-vs-Davidson showdown with the Sweet Sixteen on the line?
4. There's no other way to say this: N.C. State vs. Temple is going to be awesome. There will be many shots. There will be no defense. There will be many points. Yes please.
5. At the end of the day, this region still has to come down to Indiana and Miami, right? Sure, there's a chance Syracuse's zone stops Indiana cold, and there's a chance Illinois shoots Miami right out of the gym. But the Hoosiers and Hurricanes are head-and-shoulders above everybody else in this bracket. Both have some truly breathtaking basketball talents. If they do meet in the regional final, chances are that game would be a memorable classic.
So, What Happens? Utter chaos, that's what happens. Marquette doesn't get to the Sweet Sixteen, but a double-digit seed does. UNLV goes down to Cal. Even Montana puts a scare into Syracuse (though the Orange do survive until the second weekend). Once the dust settles, Indiana and Miami are the last ones standing, and Victor Oladipo shuts down Shane Larkin as the Hoosiers advance to the Final Four.
Showing posts with label Brackets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brackets. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Bracketeering, Part Three: The South Region
Thirteen expert analysts have revealed their Final Four picks on ESPN.com, from Jay Bilas to Jay Williams. They overwhelmingly prefer Louisville coming out of the Midwest, either Gonzaga or Ohio State from the West, and either Indiana or Miami from the East. As for the South? That's where the consensus breaks down. Each of the region's top five seeds were picked at least once; the #1 seed, Kansas, got as much support as the #5 seed, VCU. With the teams at the top bunched so closely together in quality, the South really is nothing more than a toss-up. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The excellence at the top of the bracket really distracts from how unappealing the lower seeds are. #6 UCLA is playing without Jordan Adams; even with him, the Bruins were an up-and-down team at best. The four participants in the 8/9 and 7/10 games (Villanova, North Carolina, San Diego State, and Oklahoma) are all deeply flawed, and (with the exception of North Carolina) fairly bland. #11 Minnesota is the most ice-cold team in the entire tournament. And #12 Akron would have had excellent Cinderella potential ... before losing their point guard for the season. For the most part, the lower seeds in the South have little to offer.
2. The one exception, however, is thirteen-seed South Dakota State. Their star guard Nate Wolters (averaging 22.7 points per game) is a borderline NBA prospect who leads a high-scoring offense. If the Jackrabbits were going up against a legitimate defense in the first round, there'd be little to no chance of an upset. But they're facing Michigan. Not only do the Wolverines care a lot more about scoring than defending; they also lost to a #13 seed just last year (Ohio). Anything could happen if the game descends into a jump-shooting contest. While this potential upset isn't one of the more likely ones, the mere possibility of it happening should strike fear into the hearts of those picking Michigan to make a deep run.
3. One of the teams rooting hard for South Dakota State to pull off the shocker is VCU. If the fifth-seeded Rams advance against Akron, they'd hypothetically match up against Michigan, a team that rarely commits turnovers thanks to the hyper-efficient Trey Burke. VCU needs to force turnovers to win and might not be able to squeeze them out of Michigan. But if the Rams do somehow sneak their way into the Sweet Sixteen, their pressure defense would match up perfectly against Kansas. The Jayhawks don't have a reliable ballhandler. It's easy to picture Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe getting burned repeatedly by VCU's press. Ironically, Kansas would probably rather take its chances against Trey Burke and Michigan's offense. That says a lot about the importance of matchups in this tournament.
4. There is no more frustrating game to pick in the first round than UCLA versus Minnesota. Despite being the 11-seed, Minnesota is actually favored to win. The Bruins will be at a massive disadvantage on the boards and freshman Jordan Adams is out for the tournament thanks to an injury sustained last week. Minnesota isn't exactly a lock though -- the Golden Gophers have lost eleven of their past sixteen games, including three in a row to Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois. Thankfully, the winner here is going to get clobbered by Florida so we won't be subject to either one much longer.
5. It would be a huge shock if #2 seed Georgetown and #3 seed Florida don't meet for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. Both are trying to put an end to the negative narratives that have come to define them. Georgetown goes through long stretches of offensive futility and has drastically underperformed in recent tournaments. Florida has been miserable in crucial late-game situations, contributing to their 0-6 record in games decided by six points or less. At some point, Georgetown is going to have to actually score points and Florida is going to have to actually win a close game.
So, What Happens? Minnesota over UCLA is the only significant upset of the first round but the Golden Gophers are still terrible, even in victory. Michigan fails to live up to expectations for the second consecutive year by falling short of the Sweet Sixteen. Instead, it's Shaka Smart who solidifies his reputation as a March wizard by getting his VCU Rams to the second weekend. Georgetown almost goes home early again but survives scares from Florida Gulf Coast and San Diego State. And Florida never has to deal with its shortcomings in the clutch department, choosing instead to simply crush all of its opponents en route to a Final Four appearance.
1. The excellence at the top of the bracket really distracts from how unappealing the lower seeds are. #6 UCLA is playing without Jordan Adams; even with him, the Bruins were an up-and-down team at best. The four participants in the 8/9 and 7/10 games (Villanova, North Carolina, San Diego State, and Oklahoma) are all deeply flawed, and (with the exception of North Carolina) fairly bland. #11 Minnesota is the most ice-cold team in the entire tournament. And #12 Akron would have had excellent Cinderella potential ... before losing their point guard for the season. For the most part, the lower seeds in the South have little to offer.
2. The one exception, however, is thirteen-seed South Dakota State. Their star guard Nate Wolters (averaging 22.7 points per game) is a borderline NBA prospect who leads a high-scoring offense. If the Jackrabbits were going up against a legitimate defense in the first round, there'd be little to no chance of an upset. But they're facing Michigan. Not only do the Wolverines care a lot more about scoring than defending; they also lost to a #13 seed just last year (Ohio). Anything could happen if the game descends into a jump-shooting contest. While this potential upset isn't one of the more likely ones, the mere possibility of it happening should strike fear into the hearts of those picking Michigan to make a deep run.
3. One of the teams rooting hard for South Dakota State to pull off the shocker is VCU. If the fifth-seeded Rams advance against Akron, they'd hypothetically match up against Michigan, a team that rarely commits turnovers thanks to the hyper-efficient Trey Burke. VCU needs to force turnovers to win and might not be able to squeeze them out of Michigan. But if the Rams do somehow sneak their way into the Sweet Sixteen, their pressure defense would match up perfectly against Kansas. The Jayhawks don't have a reliable ballhandler. It's easy to picture Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe getting burned repeatedly by VCU's press. Ironically, Kansas would probably rather take its chances against Trey Burke and Michigan's offense. That says a lot about the importance of matchups in this tournament.
4. There is no more frustrating game to pick in the first round than UCLA versus Minnesota. Despite being the 11-seed, Minnesota is actually favored to win. The Bruins will be at a massive disadvantage on the boards and freshman Jordan Adams is out for the tournament thanks to an injury sustained last week. Minnesota isn't exactly a lock though -- the Golden Gophers have lost eleven of their past sixteen games, including three in a row to Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois. Thankfully, the winner here is going to get clobbered by Florida so we won't be subject to either one much longer.
5. It would be a huge shock if #2 seed Georgetown and #3 seed Florida don't meet for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. Both are trying to put an end to the negative narratives that have come to define them. Georgetown goes through long stretches of offensive futility and has drastically underperformed in recent tournaments. Florida has been miserable in crucial late-game situations, contributing to their 0-6 record in games decided by six points or less. At some point, Georgetown is going to have to actually score points and Florida is going to have to actually win a close game.
So, What Happens? Minnesota over UCLA is the only significant upset of the first round but the Golden Gophers are still terrible, even in victory. Michigan fails to live up to expectations for the second consecutive year by falling short of the Sweet Sixteen. Instead, it's Shaka Smart who solidifies his reputation as a March wizard by getting his VCU Rams to the second weekend. Georgetown almost goes home early again but survives scares from Florida Gulf Coast and San Diego State. And Florida never has to deal with its shortcomings in the clutch department, choosing instead to simply crush all of its opponents en route to a Final Four appearance.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Bracketeering, Part Two: The West Region
If a surprise team ends up making the Final Four, chances are it will come from the West Region. At the top you'll find the weakest #1 seed (Gonzaga) and weakest #2 seed (Ohio State) in the field, along with a #3 seed (New Mexico) that few people ever saw play. Throw in some lower-seeded sleepers like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, plus potential Cinderellas like Belmont and Ole Miss, and the West could be the bracket that collapses in a whirlpool of delicious chaos. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The primary concern about Gonzaga is how well their efficient offense will perform against tenacious defenses, the likes of which don't exist in the West Coast Conference. We're definitely going to find out. The Zags' path to the Final Four could potentially go through Pitt in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, and Ohio State or New Mexico in the Elite Eight. All four of those teams are among the top 20 defensive units in the country. Good luck, fair sirs.
2. Every bracket has an Enigma Team that could go to the Final Four or lose in the first round. In the West, it's Arizona. The sixth-seeded Wildcats have a ton of talented players and they proved it by beating Florida and Miami earlier in the season. But they also finished poorly down the stretch in the Pac-12 and don't really have a true point guard. Having to face Belmont's excellent guards in the first round won't help, either. A first-round exit seems much more likely than a deep run.
3. In each of the last five NCAA Tournaments, a 4-seed has fallen to a 13-seed in the first round (last year, it was Michigan losing to Ohio). Kansas State looks like the most vulnerable candidate this time around. Whereas the other 4-seeds will be playing 13-seeds from tiny conferences, Kansas State is stuck playing the winner of the play-in game between La Salle and Boise State, both of which played in strong leagues that got five teams into the tournament.
4. One of the classic bracket-picking strategies is finding #12 seeds that have a good chance of beating #5 seeds. Those upsets happen at a surprisingly high frequency. But is anyone actually taking Ole Miss over Wisconsin in this region? Regardless of the Rebels' inspiring run through the SEC tournament, they're still not a particularly good team. Wisconsin will find a way to shut down the outspoken scorer Marshall Henderson. Defense trumps narrative.
5. The double-digit seed with the most long-term potential here? It's easily Iowa State. The Cyclones knock down more three-pointers than basically anyone. Their six core players all average at least nine points a game, giving them a balanced and dangerous offensive attack. Their defense? Mostly nonexistent. Yet given how many teams in this region struggle to score, Iowa State could do some damage if the shots are falling.
So, What Happens? A bunch of upsets early, as K-State, Arizona, and Notre Dame all fall in the first round. Marshall Henderson is never heard from again. New Mexico proves it belongs with the big boys by reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga gets there too, but no further, thanks to Wisconsin's frustrating style. And Ohio State emerges from the fray to reach its second consecutive Final Four.
1. The primary concern about Gonzaga is how well their efficient offense will perform against tenacious defenses, the likes of which don't exist in the West Coast Conference. We're definitely going to find out. The Zags' path to the Final Four could potentially go through Pitt in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, and Ohio State or New Mexico in the Elite Eight. All four of those teams are among the top 20 defensive units in the country. Good luck, fair sirs.
2. Every bracket has an Enigma Team that could go to the Final Four or lose in the first round. In the West, it's Arizona. The sixth-seeded Wildcats have a ton of talented players and they proved it by beating Florida and Miami earlier in the season. But they also finished poorly down the stretch in the Pac-12 and don't really have a true point guard. Having to face Belmont's excellent guards in the first round won't help, either. A first-round exit seems much more likely than a deep run.
3. In each of the last five NCAA Tournaments, a 4-seed has fallen to a 13-seed in the first round (last year, it was Michigan losing to Ohio). Kansas State looks like the most vulnerable candidate this time around. Whereas the other 4-seeds will be playing 13-seeds from tiny conferences, Kansas State is stuck playing the winner of the play-in game between La Salle and Boise State, both of which played in strong leagues that got five teams into the tournament.
4. One of the classic bracket-picking strategies is finding #12 seeds that have a good chance of beating #5 seeds. Those upsets happen at a surprisingly high frequency. But is anyone actually taking Ole Miss over Wisconsin in this region? Regardless of the Rebels' inspiring run through the SEC tournament, they're still not a particularly good team. Wisconsin will find a way to shut down the outspoken scorer Marshall Henderson. Defense trumps narrative.
5. The double-digit seed with the most long-term potential here? It's easily Iowa State. The Cyclones knock down more three-pointers than basically anyone. Their six core players all average at least nine points a game, giving them a balanced and dangerous offensive attack. Their defense? Mostly nonexistent. Yet given how many teams in this region struggle to score, Iowa State could do some damage if the shots are falling.
So, What Happens? A bunch of upsets early, as K-State, Arizona, and Notre Dame all fall in the first round. Marshall Henderson is never heard from again. New Mexico proves it belongs with the big boys by reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga gets there too, but no further, thanks to Wisconsin's frustrating style. And Ohio State emerges from the fray to reach its second consecutive Final Four.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Bracketeering, Part One: The Midwest Region
Every year, the NCAA Tournament has a Region of Death. In 2013, it's the Midwest.
Marcus Smart, Peyton Siva, and Keith Appling. Rick Pitino, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo. Doug McDermott, Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng. They can all be found in the Midwest. Whoever emerges from this region will have earned it. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. It would be a huge surprise if the three top seeds -- Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State -- didn't all advance to the Sweet Sixteen with relative ease. Who can stand in their way? That's what makes this region so tough. We're almost guaranteed some epic games between national title contenders on the second weekend.
2. Usually, a #4 seed isn't a sleeper. In this bracket, Saint Louis is. The Billikens are fundamentally sound with a tenacious defense and balanced offense. They aren't going to lose to New Mexico State in the Round of 64 and if they get past the Oklahoma State/Oregon winner, Louisville will have its hands full in that Sweet Sixteen matchup.
3. #5 seed Oklahoma State got a raw deal. Not only did the Cowboys get stuck in the worst region ... and not only are they stuck in the same pod as Saint Louis ... they also got paired up with twelfth-seeded Oregon in the first round. That's hardly fair. Oregon is way better than your typical #12 seed (the other three were Akron, California, and Ole Miss ... yuck). The Ducks just won the Pac-12 tournament and were projected to be a single-digit seed. Apparently they ended up on the 12-line because of other conflicts. That's a tough break for the Cowboys even though I'd still expect them to win this game.
4. Middle Tennessee facing Saint Mary's is the ideal play-in game. Nobody knows how good these teams are because neither one faced very many quality teams. So they can slug it out in Dayton while the rest of us educate ourselves on the Blue Raiders and the Gaels. Perfect.
5. Each region typically has three "toss-ups" that are headaches to try and pick: the 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, and 6 vs. 11 games. But the Midwest's toss-up contests each feature a team I deeply dislike, which makes them easier to pick than usual. One is eighth-seeded Missouri, a team that struggles mightily away from home and whose point guard Phil Pressey is prone to poor decision-making. Their first-round opponent Colorado State is much more reliable. The second is #10 seed Cincinnati, because the Bearcats' halfcourt offense makes eyes bleed. Creighton will be able to actually score the basketball. The third is Memphis, which seems heavily overvalued as a six-seed. The only NCAA Tournament team Memphis has beaten is Harvard. No joke. The Tigers play the winner of the Saint Mary's/Middle Tennessee play-in game; they're a likely upset victim if one of those two underdogs ends up being respectable.
So, What Happens? Chalk to the Sweet Sixteen. Memphis goes down, but not many other upsets -- Oregon, Valparaiso, and New Mexico State are far from impressive. The winner of the Saint Louis/Oklahoma State game becomes the dangerous team to watch. In the second weekend, Michigan State uses its massive size advantage to exploit Duke's rebounding weakness, but the Spartans can't handle Louisville's pressure in the regional final. And the Midwest will make up for its lack of an inspiring Cinderella with basketball of the very highest quality.
Marcus Smart, Peyton Siva, and Keith Appling. Rick Pitino, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo. Doug McDermott, Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng. They can all be found in the Midwest. Whoever emerges from this region will have earned it. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. It would be a huge surprise if the three top seeds -- Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State -- didn't all advance to the Sweet Sixteen with relative ease. Who can stand in their way? That's what makes this region so tough. We're almost guaranteed some epic games between national title contenders on the second weekend.
2. Usually, a #4 seed isn't a sleeper. In this bracket, Saint Louis is. The Billikens are fundamentally sound with a tenacious defense and balanced offense. They aren't going to lose to New Mexico State in the Round of 64 and if they get past the Oklahoma State/Oregon winner, Louisville will have its hands full in that Sweet Sixteen matchup.
3. #5 seed Oklahoma State got a raw deal. Not only did the Cowboys get stuck in the worst region ... and not only are they stuck in the same pod as Saint Louis ... they also got paired up with twelfth-seeded Oregon in the first round. That's hardly fair. Oregon is way better than your typical #12 seed (the other three were Akron, California, and Ole Miss ... yuck). The Ducks just won the Pac-12 tournament and were projected to be a single-digit seed. Apparently they ended up on the 12-line because of other conflicts. That's a tough break for the Cowboys even though I'd still expect them to win this game.
4. Middle Tennessee facing Saint Mary's is the ideal play-in game. Nobody knows how good these teams are because neither one faced very many quality teams. So they can slug it out in Dayton while the rest of us educate ourselves on the Blue Raiders and the Gaels. Perfect.
5. Each region typically has three "toss-ups" that are headaches to try and pick: the 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, and 6 vs. 11 games. But the Midwest's toss-up contests each feature a team I deeply dislike, which makes them easier to pick than usual. One is eighth-seeded Missouri, a team that struggles mightily away from home and whose point guard Phil Pressey is prone to poor decision-making. Their first-round opponent Colorado State is much more reliable. The second is #10 seed Cincinnati, because the Bearcats' halfcourt offense makes eyes bleed. Creighton will be able to actually score the basketball. The third is Memphis, which seems heavily overvalued as a six-seed. The only NCAA Tournament team Memphis has beaten is Harvard. No joke. The Tigers play the winner of the Saint Mary's/Middle Tennessee play-in game; they're a likely upset victim if one of those two underdogs ends up being respectable.
So, What Happens? Chalk to the Sweet Sixteen. Memphis goes down, but not many other upsets -- Oregon, Valparaiso, and New Mexico State are far from impressive. The winner of the Saint Louis/Oklahoma State game becomes the dangerous team to watch. In the second weekend, Michigan State uses its massive size advantage to exploit Duke's rebounding weakness, but the Spartans can't handle Louisville's pressure in the regional final. And the Midwest will make up for its lack of an inspiring Cinderella with basketball of the very highest quality.
Friday, March 1, 2013
New Mexico's Quietly Awesome Resumé
Within the last ten days, almost every single team in contention for a #1 seed has lost. Indiana at Minnesota, Miami at Wake Forest, Duke at Virginia, Michigan at Penn State, Michigan State at Ohio State, Syracuse at Marquette, Florida at Tennessee. So to heck with those guys. If the NCAA Tournament were to begin tomorrow, the Selection Committee should give a #1 seed to the New Mexico Lobos. As crazy as that notion might seem at first, their case is much stronger than anybody realizes.
First of all, New Mexico has the second-best RPI in the country. No joke. Is this a fluke? Looking at the rest of the RPI's top ten, it doesn't look that way:
1. Duke
2. New Mexico
3. Miami
4. Kansas
5. Michigan State
6. Louisville
7. Indiana
8. Gonzaga
9. Florida
10. Georgetown
Not a lot of controversy to be found there. Sure seems like the RPI has done a good job identifying which teams are the best. And it's telling us that New Mexico belongs in that group. Actually, on top of that group.
This is a team that has a whopping 16 wins against top-100 teams (based on RPI). Comparatively, Duke has 12, Gonzaga has 11, and Indiana has 10. Sixteen quality wins is a lot. Plus, they still have two top-100 teams left on their regular season schedule, and could potentially face two more top-100 teams in the Mountain West conference tournament. If they win out, they could end up with twenty quality wins. That's a lot, too. Even more than sixteen, in fact. Fun stat: not one of last year's #1 seeds won 20 games against top-100 opponents.
All of this does come with a caveat: the Lobos own one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball. Wins over talented conference foes UNLV, San Diego State, and Colorado State all came at home. So what have they accomplished elsewhere? A whole lot, actually. In neutral-court and road games, the Lobos are 10-3 with wins over Cincinnati, Connecticut, Colorado State (again), and Indiana State.
Another appealing thing about them is the lack of a really bad loss. They've only fallen four times on the season; three were on the road against tournament teams (Saint Louis, UNLV, and San Diego State). The fourth was the only semi-questionable one: at home against South Dakota State back in December. And SDSU is still a top-100 RPI team.
The most likely arguments against the idea of the Lobos getting a #1 seed will be based on misconceptions about their conference. The Mountain West doesn't get a ton of attention. But it ranks as the second-best league according to the RPI. More significantly, four or five of its nine teams are headed to the NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten is the only other league in the country with a rate that high. So the Lobos managing to win 11 of their 13 games within the Mountain West should be perceived as an impressive accomplishment, not a given. Furthermore, the numbers say that they played the third-toughest overall schedule in the country. No, New Mexico does not play in a cupcake conference and New Mexico does not play cupcake opponents.
This team has very quietly assembled an incredible body of work, and it's becoming more and more noticeable with every additional loss suffered by the other candidates for the top seeds. The Lobos just want to be noticed. They won games away from home, won games against good nonconference opponents, and won games within a cutthroat league. That's all one can ask for. It's a big if, but if the Lobos win the Mountain West conference tournament, they really should be a #1 seed no matter what anyone else does. Twenty quality wins, a top-two RPI, a top-three strength of schedule, just four losses, and both the regular season and postseason championships in a top-two conference? Heck, in what universe would that resumé not deserve a #1 seed?
First of all, New Mexico has the second-best RPI in the country. No joke. Is this a fluke? Looking at the rest of the RPI's top ten, it doesn't look that way:
1. Duke
2. New Mexico
3. Miami
4. Kansas
5. Michigan State
6. Louisville
7. Indiana
8. Gonzaga
9. Florida
10. Georgetown
Not a lot of controversy to be found there. Sure seems like the RPI has done a good job identifying which teams are the best. And it's telling us that New Mexico belongs in that group. Actually, on top of that group.
This is a team that has a whopping 16 wins against top-100 teams (based on RPI). Comparatively, Duke has 12, Gonzaga has 11, and Indiana has 10. Sixteen quality wins is a lot. Plus, they still have two top-100 teams left on their regular season schedule, and could potentially face two more top-100 teams in the Mountain West conference tournament. If they win out, they could end up with twenty quality wins. That's a lot, too. Even more than sixteen, in fact. Fun stat: not one of last year's #1 seeds won 20 games against top-100 opponents.
All of this does come with a caveat: the Lobos own one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball. Wins over talented conference foes UNLV, San Diego State, and Colorado State all came at home. So what have they accomplished elsewhere? A whole lot, actually. In neutral-court and road games, the Lobos are 10-3 with wins over Cincinnati, Connecticut, Colorado State (again), and Indiana State.
Another appealing thing about them is the lack of a really bad loss. They've only fallen four times on the season; three were on the road against tournament teams (Saint Louis, UNLV, and San Diego State). The fourth was the only semi-questionable one: at home against South Dakota State back in December. And SDSU is still a top-100 RPI team.
The most likely arguments against the idea of the Lobos getting a #1 seed will be based on misconceptions about their conference. The Mountain West doesn't get a ton of attention. But it ranks as the second-best league according to the RPI. More significantly, four or five of its nine teams are headed to the NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten is the only other league in the country with a rate that high. So the Lobos managing to win 11 of their 13 games within the Mountain West should be perceived as an impressive accomplishment, not a given. Furthermore, the numbers say that they played the third-toughest overall schedule in the country. No, New Mexico does not play in a cupcake conference and New Mexico does not play cupcake opponents.
This team has very quietly assembled an incredible body of work, and it's becoming more and more noticeable with every additional loss suffered by the other candidates for the top seeds. The Lobos just want to be noticed. They won games away from home, won games against good nonconference opponents, and won games within a cutthroat league. That's all one can ask for. It's a big if, but if the Lobos win the Mountain West conference tournament, they really should be a #1 seed no matter what anyone else does. Twenty quality wins, a top-two RPI, a top-three strength of schedule, just four losses, and both the regular season and postseason championships in a top-two conference? Heck, in what universe would that resumé not deserve a #1 seed?
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
An Unexpected Number One Seed
Pop quiz -- which of these two mystery teams has the better NCAA Tournament resumé?
They have remarkably similar profiles. Based on this information alone, Team A might be given the nod over Team B thanks to its superior nonconference schedule and better road record.
Team A is Gonzaga. Team B is Indiana.
That's not to say Gonzaga has a better resumé than Indiana. What that chart above doesn't take into account is conference affiliation. Indiana plays in the Big Ten, which according to RPI is the best conference in the country. Gonzaga makes its home in the significantly-weaker West Coast Conference, which ranks 10th in RPI and only has one other team with even an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament (Saint Mary's). It's fair to question what the Zags' record would be if they played in Indiana's conference. "Worse" would be a safe assumption, especially considering one of their two losses came at home against Illinois, which isn't even one of the four best teams in the Big Ten.
But even when one factors in those conference inequities, the Zags are still enjoying an undeniably dominant season despite never appearing on anyone's TV guide. Thanks to a month-long winning streak, they've steadily risen in the AP Poll up to #3 in the country this week. They're 25-2 overall with a perfect 12-0 record in the West Coast Conference. Last week, they passed the most challenging test remaining on their schedule by winning at Saint Mary's. The Zags are now six more wins away from an undefeated WCC season, a conference tournament championship, and a final record of 31-2. If they do get those six wins (and there's an excellent chance they do), then the Selection Committee would have to seriously consider awarding this team one of the precious number-one seeds in the NCAA Tournament even though they've played most of the season in virtual anonymity. Would Gonzaga deserve that designation?
A lot of people would probably be opposed to it, mostly because of the inferior competition in the WCC. But that's where the Zags' nonconference record comes into play. They faced seven teams that are likely headed to the NCAA Tournament, and beat five of them. Those wins came against Oklahoma State (road), Oklahoma (neutral), Kansas State (neutral), Davidson (neutral), and Baylor (home). They came within a botched inbounds pass of winning at Butler and their only other defeat was against Illinois. It's not like those are bad losses; both of those teams have also beaten Indiana.
Gonzaga ended up with three wins against teams ranked in the top 25 in RPI. That's right in line with the other candidates for the top seeds: Miami, Duke, Michigan, Michigan State, and Arizona all have three, as well. Florida, Louisville, and Syracuse actually have fewer than three. While the Zags' average opponent is very likely worse than the average opponent of these other teams, they still have proven beyond a shade of doubt that they can compete with, and beat, upper-level competition. That's what matters most.
Besides -- the Zags do pass the all-important eye test. They're actually one of the more entertaining teams in the country to watch, so it's a shame their games don't tip off until the East Coast is fast asleep. It would be an injustice if Kelly Olynyk isn't named a First-Team All-American; the seven-foot junior is the most efficient player in the sport, averaging 18 points per game on 65% shooting. He's joined in the frontcourt by senior Elias Harris, who's in his fourth consecutive year of averaging double-digit points per game for Gonzaga. David Stockton and Kevin Pangos form an excellent point guard platoon, with Stockton providing the highlight-reel passes and Pangos shooting over 43% from three-point range. And Coach Mark Few's rotation often goes ten deep thanks to a flexible roster filled with role players and glue guys. He's got so many options that Przemek Karnowski, a seven-foot-one Polish freshman who may end up in the NBA, barely gets any minutes. The result of all this is the fourth-most efficient offense in the country (and what could've been the nation's longest winning streak had Stockton and Olynyk connected on one stupid inbounds pass).
Yes, they play in a mediocre conference, and we should obviously take their gaudy record with a grain of salt. But the reality is that Gonzaga has assembled an impeccable body of work, complete with several impressive wins, aggressive nonconference scheduling, plenty of success away from home, and domination of the inferior competition within the WCC. Watch them play and it's obvious that this isn't a fluke. A number one seed for Gonzaga? It sounds far-fetched. It's also six games away from becoming a reality.
RPI ranking
|
Nonconference strength of schedule
ranking
|
Record in non-home games
|
Record vs. top-100 RPI teams
|
Losses
|
|
Team A
(25-2) |
12th
|
21st
|
13-1
|
10-2
|
Butler, Illinois
|
Team B
(24-3) |
9th
|
73rd
|
8-2
|
10-3
|
Butler, Illinois, Wisconsin
|
They have remarkably similar profiles. Based on this information alone, Team A might be given the nod over Team B thanks to its superior nonconference schedule and better road record.
Team A is Gonzaga. Team B is Indiana.
That's not to say Gonzaga has a better resumé than Indiana. What that chart above doesn't take into account is conference affiliation. Indiana plays in the Big Ten, which according to RPI is the best conference in the country. Gonzaga makes its home in the significantly-weaker West Coast Conference, which ranks 10th in RPI and only has one other team with even an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament (Saint Mary's). It's fair to question what the Zags' record would be if they played in Indiana's conference. "Worse" would be a safe assumption, especially considering one of their two losses came at home against Illinois, which isn't even one of the four best teams in the Big Ten.
But even when one factors in those conference inequities, the Zags are still enjoying an undeniably dominant season despite never appearing on anyone's TV guide. Thanks to a month-long winning streak, they've steadily risen in the AP Poll up to #3 in the country this week. They're 25-2 overall with a perfect 12-0 record in the West Coast Conference. Last week, they passed the most challenging test remaining on their schedule by winning at Saint Mary's. The Zags are now six more wins away from an undefeated WCC season, a conference tournament championship, and a final record of 31-2. If they do get those six wins (and there's an excellent chance they do), then the Selection Committee would have to seriously consider awarding this team one of the precious number-one seeds in the NCAA Tournament even though they've played most of the season in virtual anonymity. Would Gonzaga deserve that designation?
A lot of people would probably be opposed to it, mostly because of the inferior competition in the WCC. But that's where the Zags' nonconference record comes into play. They faced seven teams that are likely headed to the NCAA Tournament, and beat five of them. Those wins came against Oklahoma State (road), Oklahoma (neutral), Kansas State (neutral), Davidson (neutral), and Baylor (home). They came within a botched inbounds pass of winning at Butler and their only other defeat was against Illinois. It's not like those are bad losses; both of those teams have also beaten Indiana.
Gonzaga ended up with three wins against teams ranked in the top 25 in RPI. That's right in line with the other candidates for the top seeds: Miami, Duke, Michigan, Michigan State, and Arizona all have three, as well. Florida, Louisville, and Syracuse actually have fewer than three. While the Zags' average opponent is very likely worse than the average opponent of these other teams, they still have proven beyond a shade of doubt that they can compete with, and beat, upper-level competition. That's what matters most.
Besides -- the Zags do pass the all-important eye test. They're actually one of the more entertaining teams in the country to watch, so it's a shame their games don't tip off until the East Coast is fast asleep. It would be an injustice if Kelly Olynyk isn't named a First-Team All-American; the seven-foot junior is the most efficient player in the sport, averaging 18 points per game on 65% shooting. He's joined in the frontcourt by senior Elias Harris, who's in his fourth consecutive year of averaging double-digit points per game for Gonzaga. David Stockton and Kevin Pangos form an excellent point guard platoon, with Stockton providing the highlight-reel passes and Pangos shooting over 43% from three-point range. And Coach Mark Few's rotation often goes ten deep thanks to a flexible roster filled with role players and glue guys. He's got so many options that Przemek Karnowski, a seven-foot-one Polish freshman who may end up in the NBA, barely gets any minutes. The result of all this is the fourth-most efficient offense in the country (and what could've been the nation's longest winning streak had Stockton and Olynyk connected on one stupid inbounds pass).
Yes, they play in a mediocre conference, and we should obviously take their gaudy record with a grain of salt. But the reality is that Gonzaga has assembled an impeccable body of work, complete with several impressive wins, aggressive nonconference scheduling, plenty of success away from home, and domination of the inferior competition within the WCC. Watch them play and it's obvious that this isn't a fluke. A number one seed for Gonzaga? It sounds far-fetched. It's also six games away from becoming a reality.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Jason Whitlock Hates Your Bracket
As has become custom, President Obama kicked off the World Series of Brackets from inside the White House, filling out his NCAA tournament gambling sheet on national television.
This reads like a Mad Lib. The World Series belongs to baseball. World Series of Brackets = nonsense. The correct term is 'NCAA tournament,' which Whitlock obviously knows because...it appears in the second half of this sentence. And 'NCAA tournament gambling sheet' is also nonsense. Just say 'bracket.' Is this meant to be funny or quirky? I have a headache and we're only one sentence in.
The Big Dance,
Finally, some correct terminology.
amateurism’s greatest scam,
[double-take]
remains relevant primarily because of America’s addiction to wagering.
That's reasonable. The NCAA tournament is popular only because Americans like gambling. This explains why the World Series of Poker is one of television's most-watched* sports events in the country.
*claim may be counter-factual.
The play on the court is sloppy and uneven.
Anecdotal. Subjective. Irrelevant. Gaaahhh.
Most Americans can’t identify the players.
Other things most Americans can't identify:
1. Iraq on a map.
2. The Electoral College.
3. How long it takes for the Earth to revolve around the Sun.
4. The Bill of Rights.
5. And so on.
So this isn't really saying much.
We’re light years removed from when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, Patrick Ewing and Hakeem Olajuwon and the Fab Five and North Carolina staged unforgettable postseason basketball clashes.
I cannot believe that Whitlock is trashing the NCAA tournament in the middle of March. This is blasphemy. This is the modern-day equivalent of practicing witchcraft in Salem, Massachusetts, circa 1692.
The Bracket — i.e. gambling — is college basketball’s biggest star. Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s year-round “bracketologist,” is more well-known nationally than any player.
There are hundreds of relevant college basketball players in the country. How many other bracketologists do you think there are? No, seriously, Jason Whitlock. Ask yourself that question. You'll realize why this statement is complete garbage.
The context is provided to illustrate the absurdity of the NCAA rule that cost Kansas State fifth-year senior Jamar Samuels his final collegiate game.
This is the simple point you were trying to get to all along. So why did you have to call the NCAA tournament a sham motivated by gamblers? The rule can be absurd on its own. Your article can start right here, and your audience wouldn't already be totally disgusted with you.
Twenty-four hours before the Wildcats departed on their NCAA tournament road trip, Samuels accepted $200 in potentially impermissible benefits from the founder of the AAU program that supported him as a child...Samuels, the emotional leader of the Wildcats, their best rebounder and second-best scorer, watched in street clothes as the Fab Melo-less and vulnerable Orange eliminated K-State from the tournament.
Now, you can argue Samuels and the Wildcats got what they deserved, as Digger Phelps sanctimoniously did on ESPN over the weekend.
You can argue that, because you'd actually be right, considering Samuels broke a rule. If you'd like to question the rule's existence in the first place, then that's your right. Just know that I'd be more willing to listen to your reasoning if you weren't the same guy who called March Madness a scam.
Referencing his by-the-letter-of-the-law days as the head coach at Notre Dame 20 years ago, years spent primarily recruiting kids from nuclear families, Phelps pointed out he told ND recruits not to accept any benefits from outside their families.
As per, you know, NCAA rules.
Not to steal from political commentator Bill Maher, but Phelps lives in the “privileged bubble,” an area removed from reality that is off limits to kids like Jamar Samuels.
Mostly irrelevant. Digger Phelps was essentially saying "you should follow the rule!" and not "the rule is 100% correct and I'm glad it exists!" Big difference. You can make this into a socioeconomic issue if you please, and question whether the rule is fair and just. But calling Phelps privileged and out of touch when he was arguing for enforcement of an existing rule isn't really fair.
In 2012, what is family? And who is in yours?
Nothing like some existential questions in the middle of an article about college basketball.
...If his biological family didn’t have the cash, where should have Samuels turned for spending money? K-State coach Frank Martin? Martin is the man who promised to be Samuels’ collegiate father figure. Martin is the leader of K-State’s basketball family. Martin is paid more than a million dollars a year. He can afford it.
Dangerous territory, man. Once you open the door to 'coaches giving players money,' there's no coming back.
But the NCAA rule book prohibits Martin from doing what is right. And the NCAA media slave catchers live for the day — even years later — they learn of a head coach sharing his wealth with his players.
Okay. Whoa there. Listen. The NCAA makes billions from these athletes playing basketball. So yeah, there's an expectation that the NCAA will look out for Jamar Samuels, not suspend him from his final game. Any rational person would agree with this. But hey, when you say things like, "NCAA media slave catchers," I don't feel like immediately jumping into your bandwagon, okay?
And now, going Big Picture, you're also conveniently breezing past the fact that Jamar Samuels and lots of guys like him are being handed a scholarship and a degree to play a game. Okay? To play a game with a ball and a hoop. All things considered, that's a decent deal. Sure, there are some major kinks in the system. There's some injustice. But, BIG PICTURE, that's a pretty awesome set-up.
...Samuels came to Kansas State dreaming of being an NBA player. He’ll leave Manhattan, Kan., with a degree and as the winningest player in the history of the school.
So like I said, big picture, that's not too bad, eh?
It’s a great legacy that was tarnished by the NCAA’s fraudulent, president-celebrated, media-enforced “amateur” bracket pool.
To recap: Jamar Samuels was punished for breaking a rule. Jason Whitlock blames the following people/things:
1. The NCAA.
2. Digger Phelps.
3. President Obama.
4. "The bubble of privilege."
5. The media.
6. Slave catchers.
7. Gambling.
8. The rules.
9. The World Series of Brackets.
College basketball and its NCAA tournament are a government-approved, nationally televised, multibillion-dollar scam and we’re supposed to care that Malone gave Samuels $200 to spend while K-State was visiting Pittsburgh? Really?
I wish I lived in the “bubble of privilege” Digger Phelps inhabits. The real world is embarrassingly unfair.
True that. And it's sad that Samuels missed his final game because of something silly. But the real world could've been far, far crueller to Jamar Samuels, who after all, only missed 40 minutes of a basketball game and now walks away from Kansas State University with an all-expenses-paid degree and a brighter future. All of which prompted Jason Whitlock to call the entire system a disgraceful sham. Maybe he's just upset because his bracket had K-State going all the way.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
13 Bold Bracket Predictions
A random assortment of thirteen things that I think will happen in this year's NCAA tournament.
A #1 seed will lose before the Sweet 16.
It's happened two years in a row (Kansas vs Northern Iowa in 2010, Pitt vs Butler last year), and it will happen again. Each one-seed has its own nightmare scenario in its second game. #9 Kansas State beat Missouri twice and could cause Syracuse all sorts of problems, especially with Fab Melo ineligible. #8 Memphis is drastically underseeded and has a shot to beat Michigan State. #8 Creighton's Doug McDermott could drop 40 on North Carolina and stun the Tar Heels. And it would be foolish to count out #9 UConn against Kentucky.
A #2 seed will lose before the Sweet 16.
This actually happens quite frequently. And the #2's don't look any safer than usual. There's no shortage of opportunities for upsets. Can you not picture Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons lighting up Duke's porous defense? Or the Florida Gators getting ridiculously hot and sinking 15 3-pointers against Mizzou? Or Kevin Jones and the Mountaineers out-toughing Ohio State? Or the Jayhawks getting shocked yet again by a mid-major when Tyshawn Taylor gets completely outplayed by Matthew Dellavedova of Saint Mary's? A 2-seed is going down. The only question is which.
#15 Detroit will be leading #2 Kansas with less than five minutes to play.
The Titans, as Brad Stevens has pointed out, aren't your typical 15-seed. They might be the best since Steve Nash's Santa Clara squad. Point guard Ray McCallum Jr. was recruited by the country's top programs, but chose to play for his father at Detroit. Six-foot-ten Eli Holman roams the paint. Kansas is obviously talented, but they've overachieved relative to their talent, the supporting cast can be inconsistent, and Tyshawn Taylor can be turnover-prone. We might always remember these Titans.
Either #3 Georgetown will lose to #14 Belmont, or #5 Vanderbilt will lose to #12 Harvard.
We've been told that these Hoyas and these Commodores are different from past squads that choked in the opening round. We're also too smart to be fooled that easily. One of these two will continue its rich tradition of tournament underperformance.
The Mountain West Conference won't win a game.
The MWC has been a strong league this year, with four teams earning tournament bids. But the conference hasn't had much tournament success recently, and no team this year looks as promising as last year's Sweet Sixteen teams (SDSU and BYU). #11 Colorado State has been terrible on the road and has little hope of upsetting Murray State in Louisville. #6 San Diego State will have its hands full with a talented, streaking N.C. State team. #6 UNLV has been underperforming on the road all season and faces the Colorado Buffaloes, who just won four games in four days. #5 New Mexico has the best chance of winning a game, but the Lobos got a tough draw with #12 Long Beach State. Thanks for playing, Mountain West.
A Big East team will lose in the first round to a double-digit seed.
It's happened every year since 2004, so this actually isn't that bold. But the streak will continue. There are plenty of opportunities: Marquette against BYU, Georgetown against Belmont, Cincinnati against Texas, Louisville against Davidson, Notre Dame against Xavier...
A team from the West Coast Conference will reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Maybe I'm disproportionately high on the WCC. But even though Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, and BYU all face a tough road, I think the conference will once again provide us with a Cinderella team. Maybe Robert Sacre and the Zags pick up two wins 1,000 miles away from home. Maybe Saint Mary's stuns the Jayhawks for its second trip to the second weekend in three years. Maybe BYU rides the momentum of its 25-point comeback against Iona to stun Marquette and Murray State. All these scenarios are unlikely. One of them will happen.
Of the eight teams seeded #3 or #4, only three will reach the Sweet Sixteen.
There's going to be a ton of upsets this year, and the teams seeded on the 3- and 4- lines will be the victims. Teams like Michigan, Georgetown, Louisville, Baylor, Indiana, and Wisconsin could all be vulnerable for different reasons. Their first round opponents--the Ohios, the Montanas, the Belmonts, the Davidsons, etc.--are as strong as ever. And the #5 and #6 seeds are unusually potent as well. Take a good long look at the 3- and 4-seeds, as most of them won't be around for very long.
Two double-digit seeds will play each other for a Sweet Sixteen berth.
It happened last year with #12 Richmond and #13 Morehead State, and it'll happen again. Right now, those matchups sound silly: Long Beach State and Davidson? South Dakota State and Colorado? South Florida and Ohio? Texas and St. Bonaventure? But one of them will become reality.
The five obscure players who will become household names after the first weekend are...
Casper Ware of Long Beach State, Will Barton of Memphis, Isaiah Canaan of Murray State, Anthony Collins of South Florida, and C.J. Leslie of N.C. State.
No Big East team will reach the Elite Eight...
Last year, UConn was the only Big East team (out of 11) to get to the Elite Eight. And Kemba isn't coming back to save the conference again. The Big East got nine teams in the tournament, including a #1 seed, two #3's, and a #4. None of them will make an Elite Eight appearance, though.
...but three Big 12 teams will.
The Big 12 has been an outstanding conference all year, and there doesn't seem to be much that can prevent Kansas, Missouri, and Baylor from all reaching the Elite Eight.
No Big 10 team will reach the Final Four.
Both Ohio State and Michigan State are national championship contenders, and Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all 4-seeds. But like the Big East, this conference will be shut out of New Orleans. Michigan State has a very difficult path to the Final Four, and Ohio State be tripped up by one of the many strong teams in the East Region.
A #1 seed will lose before the Sweet 16.
It's happened two years in a row (Kansas vs Northern Iowa in 2010, Pitt vs Butler last year), and it will happen again. Each one-seed has its own nightmare scenario in its second game. #9 Kansas State beat Missouri twice and could cause Syracuse all sorts of problems, especially with Fab Melo ineligible. #8 Memphis is drastically underseeded and has a shot to beat Michigan State. #8 Creighton's Doug McDermott could drop 40 on North Carolina and stun the Tar Heels. And it would be foolish to count out #9 UConn against Kentucky.
A #2 seed will lose before the Sweet 16.
This actually happens quite frequently. And the #2's don't look any safer than usual. There's no shortage of opportunities for upsets. Can you not picture Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons lighting up Duke's porous defense? Or the Florida Gators getting ridiculously hot and sinking 15 3-pointers against Mizzou? Or Kevin Jones and the Mountaineers out-toughing Ohio State? Or the Jayhawks getting shocked yet again by a mid-major when Tyshawn Taylor gets completely outplayed by Matthew Dellavedova of Saint Mary's? A 2-seed is going down. The only question is which.
#15 Detroit will be leading #2 Kansas with less than five minutes to play.
The Titans, as Brad Stevens has pointed out, aren't your typical 15-seed. They might be the best since Steve Nash's Santa Clara squad. Point guard Ray McCallum Jr. was recruited by the country's top programs, but chose to play for his father at Detroit. Six-foot-ten Eli Holman roams the paint. Kansas is obviously talented, but they've overachieved relative to their talent, the supporting cast can be inconsistent, and Tyshawn Taylor can be turnover-prone. We might always remember these Titans.
Either #3 Georgetown will lose to #14 Belmont, or #5 Vanderbilt will lose to #12 Harvard.
We've been told that these Hoyas and these Commodores are different from past squads that choked in the opening round. We're also too smart to be fooled that easily. One of these two will continue its rich tradition of tournament underperformance.
The Mountain West Conference won't win a game.
The MWC has been a strong league this year, with four teams earning tournament bids. But the conference hasn't had much tournament success recently, and no team this year looks as promising as last year's Sweet Sixteen teams (SDSU and BYU). #11 Colorado State has been terrible on the road and has little hope of upsetting Murray State in Louisville. #6 San Diego State will have its hands full with a talented, streaking N.C. State team. #6 UNLV has been underperforming on the road all season and faces the Colorado Buffaloes, who just won four games in four days. #5 New Mexico has the best chance of winning a game, but the Lobos got a tough draw with #12 Long Beach State. Thanks for playing, Mountain West.
A Big East team will lose in the first round to a double-digit seed.
It's happened every year since 2004, so this actually isn't that bold. But the streak will continue. There are plenty of opportunities: Marquette against BYU, Georgetown against Belmont, Cincinnati against Texas, Louisville against Davidson, Notre Dame against Xavier...
A team from the West Coast Conference will reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Maybe I'm disproportionately high on the WCC. But even though Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, and BYU all face a tough road, I think the conference will once again provide us with a Cinderella team. Maybe Robert Sacre and the Zags pick up two wins 1,000 miles away from home. Maybe Saint Mary's stuns the Jayhawks for its second trip to the second weekend in three years. Maybe BYU rides the momentum of its 25-point comeback against Iona to stun Marquette and Murray State. All these scenarios are unlikely. One of them will happen.
Of the eight teams seeded #3 or #4, only three will reach the Sweet Sixteen.
There's going to be a ton of upsets this year, and the teams seeded on the 3- and 4- lines will be the victims. Teams like Michigan, Georgetown, Louisville, Baylor, Indiana, and Wisconsin could all be vulnerable for different reasons. Their first round opponents--the Ohios, the Montanas, the Belmonts, the Davidsons, etc.--are as strong as ever. And the #5 and #6 seeds are unusually potent as well. Take a good long look at the 3- and 4-seeds, as most of them won't be around for very long.
Two double-digit seeds will play each other for a Sweet Sixteen berth.
It happened last year with #12 Richmond and #13 Morehead State, and it'll happen again. Right now, those matchups sound silly: Long Beach State and Davidson? South Dakota State and Colorado? South Florida and Ohio? Texas and St. Bonaventure? But one of them will become reality.
The five obscure players who will become household names after the first weekend are...
Casper Ware of Long Beach State, Will Barton of Memphis, Isaiah Canaan of Murray State, Anthony Collins of South Florida, and C.J. Leslie of N.C. State.
No Big East team will reach the Elite Eight...
Last year, UConn was the only Big East team (out of 11) to get to the Elite Eight. And Kemba isn't coming back to save the conference again. The Big East got nine teams in the tournament, including a #1 seed, two #3's, and a #4. None of them will make an Elite Eight appearance, though.
...but three Big 12 teams will.
The Big 12 has been an outstanding conference all year, and there doesn't seem to be much that can prevent Kansas, Missouri, and Baylor from all reaching the Elite Eight.
No Big 10 team will reach the Final Four.
Both Ohio State and Michigan State are national championship contenders, and Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all 4-seeds. But like the Big East, this conference will be shut out of New Orleans. Michigan State has a very difficult path to the Final Four, and Ohio State be tripped up by one of the many strong teams in the East Region.
Bracket Breakdown: Midwest Region
Storied programs North Carolina and Kansas were placed together in the Midwest Region, which is full of potential upset picks.
-#1 North Carolina and John Henson. UNC got a fairly easy path to the Elite Eight--Creighton and Alabama are both one-dimensional teams, and the Heels' Sweet Sixteen matchup will be against either Michigan, Temple, or a double-digit Cinderella. North Carolina can get to the Elite Eight without injured big man John Henson, who is questionable for the first weekend. But can they beat #2 Kansas, in St. Louis, without him? Hopefully it doesn't come to that. UNC has all the pieces to win a title: the point guard (Kendall Marshall), the frontcourt (Henson and Tyler Zeller), the scorer who can take a game over (Harrison Barnes), and a coach who has done it before (Roy Williams). Defense and three-point shooting can be question marks, but this is as good a pick as any to win the national championship. Assuming, of course, John Henson's wrist is okay.
-#2 Kansas' path looks clear, too. Like with North Carolina, there doesn't appear to be a team in the Jayhawks' half of the bracket that can handle Tyshawn Taylor, Thomas Robinson, and their overachieving supporting cast. 15th-seeded Detroit has more McDonald's All-Americans than Kansas (one-to-nothing), and the game might be close, but the Titans are a 15-seed for a reason. Neither Saint Mary's nor Purdue has the athletes to match up, and a Sweet Sixteen date with Georgetown, San Diego State, or N.C. State seems manageable. Bill Self's teams have fallen to low seeds in past years, but a match-up against #1 North Carolina and former Kansas coach Roy Williams seems inevitable.
-Other than UNC and Kansas, this bracket is wide open. Like the West, the Midwest Region could be littered with upsets.The #3, #4, #5, and #6 seeds are all popular picks to fall early. Some of the lower seeds are underrated teams from power-six conferences (Alabama, Purdue, N.C. State, USF, Cal) and the others are sneaky-good mid-majors (Creighton, Ohio, Belmont, and Detroit). Kansas and UNC look like Sweet Sixteen locks, but they could be playing some surprise teams once they get there.
-Temple and the 5-12 upset. The fifth-seeded Owls enjoyed an outstanding season in the Atlantic 10 behind strong guard play from Ramone Moore, Juan Fernandez, and Khalif Wyatt. But they could be vulnerable to the twelfth-seeded South Florida Bulls, who dominated Cal in their First Four matchup. USF has a balanced offensive attack and a relentless defense that hasn't allowed 60 points in what seems like forever. Temple coach Fran Dunphy doesn't have a good tournament history. His team might be going home early once again.
-Will #3 Georgetown and #6 San Diego State fall, too? The two teams are slated to play each other for a Sweet 16 berth, but like Temple, both could fall in the first round, too. Georgetown is overseeded as a #3 and is playing an experienced, offensively potent Belmont team capable of sending the Hoyas home early yet again. SDSU might actually be the underdog against #11 N.C. State, as C.J. Leslie and the Wolfpack almost knocked off North Carolina in the ACC semifinals and the Aztecs have overachieved for much of the season.
-More toss-up games: Creighton/Alabama and Saint Mary's/Purdue. It seems like every first-round game in this region except for UNC-Vermont could fall either way. The 8-vs-9 and 7-vs-10 matchups are no different. #8 Creighton and its star Doug McDermott can put up big offensive numbers but struggle to defend; #9 Alabama is the opposite, using stout defense to overcome often-anemic offense. McDermott may struggle against 'Bama's defenders, the likes of which he didn't really see in the Missouri Valley. On the other side of the bracket, Robbie Hummel is in the NCAA tournament field for tenth-seeded Purdue after missing the last two postseasons with injuries. The Boilermakers drew #7 Saint Mary's and must figure out a way to stop Matthew Dellavedova and Rob Jones. Each team is probably glad that the other lacks elite athletes.
-Will Ohio pull off another shocker? Two years ago, the Ohio Bobcats stunned Georgetown in the first round, knocking off the Hoyas in a decisive upset. The Bobcats are back, and so is guard D.J. Cooper, who was on that 2010 team. Ohio drew #4 Michigan in the first round--a talented team, but one with a freshman point guard who struggled in the Big 10 tournament, and without much interior size. The Wolverines are also dependent on the three-point shot, which the Bobcats defend well. Ohio could shock another top seed this year.
-The Favorites: North Carolina, Kansas
-Final Four sleepers: Georgetown, Michigan
-Vulnerable top seeds: Georgetown, Michigan, Temple, SDSU
-Cinderella candidates: Saint Mary's, Creighton, Ohio, Belmont, Detroit
-#1 North Carolina and John Henson. UNC got a fairly easy path to the Elite Eight--Creighton and Alabama are both one-dimensional teams, and the Heels' Sweet Sixteen matchup will be against either Michigan, Temple, or a double-digit Cinderella. North Carolina can get to the Elite Eight without injured big man John Henson, who is questionable for the first weekend. But can they beat #2 Kansas, in St. Louis, without him? Hopefully it doesn't come to that. UNC has all the pieces to win a title: the point guard (Kendall Marshall), the frontcourt (Henson and Tyler Zeller), the scorer who can take a game over (Harrison Barnes), and a coach who has done it before (Roy Williams). Defense and three-point shooting can be question marks, but this is as good a pick as any to win the national championship. Assuming, of course, John Henson's wrist is okay.
-#2 Kansas' path looks clear, too. Like with North Carolina, there doesn't appear to be a team in the Jayhawks' half of the bracket that can handle Tyshawn Taylor, Thomas Robinson, and their overachieving supporting cast. 15th-seeded Detroit has more McDonald's All-Americans than Kansas (one-to-nothing), and the game might be close, but the Titans are a 15-seed for a reason. Neither Saint Mary's nor Purdue has the athletes to match up, and a Sweet Sixteen date with Georgetown, San Diego State, or N.C. State seems manageable. Bill Self's teams have fallen to low seeds in past years, but a match-up against #1 North Carolina and former Kansas coach Roy Williams seems inevitable.
-Other than UNC and Kansas, this bracket is wide open. Like the West, the Midwest Region could be littered with upsets.The #3, #4, #5, and #6 seeds are all popular picks to fall early. Some of the lower seeds are underrated teams from power-six conferences (Alabama, Purdue, N.C. State, USF, Cal) and the others are sneaky-good mid-majors (Creighton, Ohio, Belmont, and Detroit). Kansas and UNC look like Sweet Sixteen locks, but they could be playing some surprise teams once they get there.
-Temple and the 5-12 upset. The fifth-seeded Owls enjoyed an outstanding season in the Atlantic 10 behind strong guard play from Ramone Moore, Juan Fernandez, and Khalif Wyatt. But they could be vulnerable to the twelfth-seeded South Florida Bulls, who dominated Cal in their First Four matchup. USF has a balanced offensive attack and a relentless defense that hasn't allowed 60 points in what seems like forever. Temple coach Fran Dunphy doesn't have a good tournament history. His team might be going home early once again.
-Will #3 Georgetown and #6 San Diego State fall, too? The two teams are slated to play each other for a Sweet 16 berth, but like Temple, both could fall in the first round, too. Georgetown is overseeded as a #3 and is playing an experienced, offensively potent Belmont team capable of sending the Hoyas home early yet again. SDSU might actually be the underdog against #11 N.C. State, as C.J. Leslie and the Wolfpack almost knocked off North Carolina in the ACC semifinals and the Aztecs have overachieved for much of the season.
-More toss-up games: Creighton/Alabama and Saint Mary's/Purdue. It seems like every first-round game in this region except for UNC-Vermont could fall either way. The 8-vs-9 and 7-vs-10 matchups are no different. #8 Creighton and its star Doug McDermott can put up big offensive numbers but struggle to defend; #9 Alabama is the opposite, using stout defense to overcome often-anemic offense. McDermott may struggle against 'Bama's defenders, the likes of which he didn't really see in the Missouri Valley. On the other side of the bracket, Robbie Hummel is in the NCAA tournament field for tenth-seeded Purdue after missing the last two postseasons with injuries. The Boilermakers drew #7 Saint Mary's and must figure out a way to stop Matthew Dellavedova and Rob Jones. Each team is probably glad that the other lacks elite athletes.
-Will Ohio pull off another shocker? Two years ago, the Ohio Bobcats stunned Georgetown in the first round, knocking off the Hoyas in a decisive upset. The Bobcats are back, and so is guard D.J. Cooper, who was on that 2010 team. Ohio drew #4 Michigan in the first round--a talented team, but one with a freshman point guard who struggled in the Big 10 tournament, and without much interior size. The Wolverines are also dependent on the three-point shot, which the Bobcats defend well. Ohio could shock another top seed this year.
-The Favorites: North Carolina, Kansas
-Final Four sleepers: Georgetown, Michigan
-Vulnerable top seeds: Georgetown, Michigan, Temple, SDSU
-Cinderella candidates: Saint Mary's, Creighton, Ohio, Belmont, Detroit
Bracket Breakdown: West Region
The West is home to Tom Izzo's Spartans, but this bracket might be the tournament's most wide-open region.
-If you like up-tempo basketball, this is the region for you. Some of the country's fastest-paced offenses can be found in the West: Missouri, Florida, Marquette, Murray State, Davidson, BYU, and even LIU-Brooklyn. Those high-flying offenses will contrast sharply with the defensive-oriented, ground-and-pound styles of teams like Michigan State, Louisville, New Mexico, Saint Louis, and Virginia.
-The West Region could be the one that blows up. This bracket could get really messy. Multiple double-digit seeds could achieve upsets. Every high seed is a candidate for both the Final Four and a first-weekend upset. If an unexpected team gets to New Orleans, chances are it comes out of the West.
-The top 8/9 game in the field. #8 Memphis taking on #9 Saint Louis is one of the best opening-round matchups out there. Memphis is tremendously talented and the Tigers are playing like a much higher seed right now. But Saint Louis, coached by Rick Majerus, is disciplined on both ends of the court. This should be a close game, and the winner will give Michigan State fits.
-Louisville/Davidson and New Mexico/Long Beach State. This is the most interesting 4-13/5-12 sub-bracket, and could end up being the most chaotic. Louisville won the Big East tournament with suffocating defense and rebounding, but could struggle to keep up offensively with Davidson's three-point shooting. New Mexico won the Mountain West tournament, plays similarly great defense, and boasts Drew Gordon on the interior, but an experienced Long Beach State team is a threat to pull off the upset, especially if Larry Anderson is healthy. One of these four will reach the Sweet Sixteen, and it's wide-open.
-#7 Florida vs #10 Virginia: a contrast of styles. Both the Gators and Cavaliers have been playing poorly of late, but the similarities between the two end there. Florida, led by elite guards Kenny Boynton, Erving Walker, and freshman Bradley Beal, shoots a ton of three-pointers and doesn't defend very well. The Cavaliers run their offense through All-ACC forward Mike Scott and depend on defense, especially at the three-point line, to win games. Something's gotta give.
-Are the high-powered offenses of #2 Missouri and #3 Marquette on a collision course? That would certainly be a great game in the Sweet Sixteen. But each has to get through its own challenges first. Missouri must defeat either a similar guard-oriented offense in Florida or a slow-it-down Virginia team. And Marquette has to face two teams that can match its offensive attack: the #14 BYU Cougars, who survived Iona's up-tempo assault, and likely the #6 Murray State Racers, who could beat Marquette at its own game.
-Will #1 Michigan State survive? If the Spartans reach the Final Four, it would be one of Tom Izzo's most impressive accomplishments. They're not even favored to win their own region despite being the 1-seed; Missouri is a more popular Final Four pick. They got the toughest draw for the Round of 32, as Memphis and Saint Louis are excellent basketball teams. Rick Pitino could be waiting in the Sweet 16. And Izzo might have to find a way to slow down the potent offense of Mizzou (or Marquette, or Murray State) to get to New Orleans. It's a difficult route, but for a March mastermind like Izzo, it can be done.
-The Favorites: Michigan State, Missouri
-Final Four sleepers: Marquette, Murray State, Louisville, Florida
-Vulnerable top seeds: Marquette, Louisville, New Mexico
-Cinderella candidates: Long Beach State, Davidson, BYU
-If you like up-tempo basketball, this is the region for you. Some of the country's fastest-paced offenses can be found in the West: Missouri, Florida, Marquette, Murray State, Davidson, BYU, and even LIU-Brooklyn. Those high-flying offenses will contrast sharply with the defensive-oriented, ground-and-pound styles of teams like Michigan State, Louisville, New Mexico, Saint Louis, and Virginia.
-The West Region could be the one that blows up. This bracket could get really messy. Multiple double-digit seeds could achieve upsets. Every high seed is a candidate for both the Final Four and a first-weekend upset. If an unexpected team gets to New Orleans, chances are it comes out of the West.
-The top 8/9 game in the field. #8 Memphis taking on #9 Saint Louis is one of the best opening-round matchups out there. Memphis is tremendously talented and the Tigers are playing like a much higher seed right now. But Saint Louis, coached by Rick Majerus, is disciplined on both ends of the court. This should be a close game, and the winner will give Michigan State fits.
-Louisville/Davidson and New Mexico/Long Beach State. This is the most interesting 4-13/5-12 sub-bracket, and could end up being the most chaotic. Louisville won the Big East tournament with suffocating defense and rebounding, but could struggle to keep up offensively with Davidson's three-point shooting. New Mexico won the Mountain West tournament, plays similarly great defense, and boasts Drew Gordon on the interior, but an experienced Long Beach State team is a threat to pull off the upset, especially if Larry Anderson is healthy. One of these four will reach the Sweet Sixteen, and it's wide-open.
-#7 Florida vs #10 Virginia: a contrast of styles. Both the Gators and Cavaliers have been playing poorly of late, but the similarities between the two end there. Florida, led by elite guards Kenny Boynton, Erving Walker, and freshman Bradley Beal, shoots a ton of three-pointers and doesn't defend very well. The Cavaliers run their offense through All-ACC forward Mike Scott and depend on defense, especially at the three-point line, to win games. Something's gotta give.
-Are the high-powered offenses of #2 Missouri and #3 Marquette on a collision course? That would certainly be a great game in the Sweet Sixteen. But each has to get through its own challenges first. Missouri must defeat either a similar guard-oriented offense in Florida or a slow-it-down Virginia team. And Marquette has to face two teams that can match its offensive attack: the #14 BYU Cougars, who survived Iona's up-tempo assault, and likely the #6 Murray State Racers, who could beat Marquette at its own game.
-Will #1 Michigan State survive? If the Spartans reach the Final Four, it would be one of Tom Izzo's most impressive accomplishments. They're not even favored to win their own region despite being the 1-seed; Missouri is a more popular Final Four pick. They got the toughest draw for the Round of 32, as Memphis and Saint Louis are excellent basketball teams. Rick Pitino could be waiting in the Sweet 16. And Izzo might have to find a way to slow down the potent offense of Mizzou (or Marquette, or Murray State) to get to New Orleans. It's a difficult route, but for a March mastermind like Izzo, it can be done.
-The Favorites: Michigan State, Missouri
-Final Four sleepers: Marquette, Murray State, Louisville, Florida
-Vulnerable top seeds: Marquette, Louisville, New Mexico
-Cinderella candidates: Long Beach State, Davidson, BYU
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Bracket Breakdown: East Region
Syracuse's East Region features two national championship contenders, two teams fresh off conference tournament upsets, and a host of enigmas.
-#1 Syracuse has a difficult path to the Final Four. The Orange would probably gladly switch regions with Kentucky. Syracuse will be rooting for #9 Southern Miss to beat #8 Kansas State in their matchup, since K-State's size and rebounding advantage could be problematic for a Syracuse team that will be without the ineligible Fab Melo for the tournament. If the Orange survive, they could get either sharpshooting Vanderbilt, coming off a defeat of Kentucky, or Wisconsin and its tough defense. And to get to the Final Four, they might have to beat either Ohio State, Florida State, or Cincinnati, all of which are defensive-minded and have already beaten elite teams. At least the Orange will play in Pittsburgh and Boston.
-Will #5 Vanderbilt lose...again? Vanderbilt has lost in the first round as a high seed a lot recently, and the fact that the Commodores are a five-seed--a slot always prone to upsets--doesn't help. Neither does their opponent, a strong #12 Harvard squad that will limit baskets. You just have to think that this is a different Vanderbilt team than past units, one with elite guards and an inside presence in Festus Ezeli, that will buck the recent trend and give Syracuse's zone defense fits in the Sweet 16.
-#4 Wisconsin could be in trouble. The Badgers have been up-and-down all season long, and suddenly their offense depends a lot on hitting threes. They'll face #14 Montana, and the Grizzlies are more than capable of winning this game. Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar give the Big Sky champ a dynamic duo of guards that can match Jordan Taylor shot-for-shot. Since the Badgers are great defenders, play a slow tempo, and rarely turn the ball over, they'll be tough to take out. But Montana has a better chance of winning than you might think.
-#6 Cincinnati vs #11 Texas: toss-up? 11-seeds pull off upsets every year, and Texas has the potential to knock off Cincy. The Bearcats don't hit their free throws and don't shoot very well. The problem with the Longhorns is their reliance on J'Covan Brown, who composes much of their offense but isn't efficient from the floor. Texas may need a Herculean effort from him to overcome Cincinnati's strong defensive and rebounding advantages. The Bearcats showcased their ceiling in the Big East tournament, and have already beaten top seed Syracuse; getting a rematch, though, will require two more wins after Texas, likely against Florida State and Ohio State.
-#3 Florida State can reach the Final Four. With great defense, bench depth, and experience, the Seminoles beat Duke and North Carolina twice each this season and won the ACC tournament. So when they're scoring consistently, like in the ACC championship game, they're nearly impossible to beat. Of course, this team also lost to two Ivy League schools, and could get ambushed by St. Bonaventure and Andrew Nicholson in the first round. Still, the Seminoles are a nice darkhorse candidate for a deep tourney run.
-#7 Gonzaga or #10 West Virginia? This is easily one of the first round's most intriguing matchups. Gonzaga has the better team in most facets--talent, skills, decision-making, three-point shooting, etc. Robert Sacre is a force in the paint, Elias Harris and Kevin Pangos are elite scorers, and coach Mark Few has been here before. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs got a tough draw. First of all, this is a virtual road game, as they'll travel across the country to Pittsburgh, a mere bus ride away from Morgantown. And secondly, physical teams have given Gonzaga problems, and the Mountaineers' interior duo of Kevin Jones and Deniz Kilicli is as physical as it gets. West Virginia lacks experience, doesn't shoot well, and makes poor decisions, but might find a way to win anyway.
-#2 Ohio State needs to avoid foul trouble. The Buckeyes can reach the Final Four and perhaps the national championship game if they do so. Ohio State features lockdown defense, great coaching, talented scorers, and a formidable big man, but they really lack depth. Foul trouble for players like Aaron Craft and Jared Sullinger could sink their Final Four hopes early. If the Buckeyes' best players stay on the court, the path is clear to an Elite Eight date with Syracuse, and possibly beyond.
-The Favorites: Syracuse, Ohio State
-Final Four sleepers: Florida State, Vanderbilt
-Vulnerable top seeds: Wisconsin, Cincinnati
-Cinderella candidates: Harvard, Montana, St. Bonaventure
-#1 Syracuse has a difficult path to the Final Four. The Orange would probably gladly switch regions with Kentucky. Syracuse will be rooting for #9 Southern Miss to beat #8 Kansas State in their matchup, since K-State's size and rebounding advantage could be problematic for a Syracuse team that will be without the ineligible Fab Melo for the tournament. If the Orange survive, they could get either sharpshooting Vanderbilt, coming off a defeat of Kentucky, or Wisconsin and its tough defense. And to get to the Final Four, they might have to beat either Ohio State, Florida State, or Cincinnati, all of which are defensive-minded and have already beaten elite teams. At least the Orange will play in Pittsburgh and Boston.
-Will #5 Vanderbilt lose...again? Vanderbilt has lost in the first round as a high seed a lot recently, and the fact that the Commodores are a five-seed--a slot always prone to upsets--doesn't help. Neither does their opponent, a strong #12 Harvard squad that will limit baskets. You just have to think that this is a different Vanderbilt team than past units, one with elite guards and an inside presence in Festus Ezeli, that will buck the recent trend and give Syracuse's zone defense fits in the Sweet 16.
-#4 Wisconsin could be in trouble. The Badgers have been up-and-down all season long, and suddenly their offense depends a lot on hitting threes. They'll face #14 Montana, and the Grizzlies are more than capable of winning this game. Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar give the Big Sky champ a dynamic duo of guards that can match Jordan Taylor shot-for-shot. Since the Badgers are great defenders, play a slow tempo, and rarely turn the ball over, they'll be tough to take out. But Montana has a better chance of winning than you might think.
-#6 Cincinnati vs #11 Texas: toss-up? 11-seeds pull off upsets every year, and Texas has the potential to knock off Cincy. The Bearcats don't hit their free throws and don't shoot very well. The problem with the Longhorns is their reliance on J'Covan Brown, who composes much of their offense but isn't efficient from the floor. Texas may need a Herculean effort from him to overcome Cincinnati's strong defensive and rebounding advantages. The Bearcats showcased their ceiling in the Big East tournament, and have already beaten top seed Syracuse; getting a rematch, though, will require two more wins after Texas, likely against Florida State and Ohio State.
-#3 Florida State can reach the Final Four. With great defense, bench depth, and experience, the Seminoles beat Duke and North Carolina twice each this season and won the ACC tournament. So when they're scoring consistently, like in the ACC championship game, they're nearly impossible to beat. Of course, this team also lost to two Ivy League schools, and could get ambushed by St. Bonaventure and Andrew Nicholson in the first round. Still, the Seminoles are a nice darkhorse candidate for a deep tourney run.
-#7 Gonzaga or #10 West Virginia? This is easily one of the first round's most intriguing matchups. Gonzaga has the better team in most facets--talent, skills, decision-making, three-point shooting, etc. Robert Sacre is a force in the paint, Elias Harris and Kevin Pangos are elite scorers, and coach Mark Few has been here before. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs got a tough draw. First of all, this is a virtual road game, as they'll travel across the country to Pittsburgh, a mere bus ride away from Morgantown. And secondly, physical teams have given Gonzaga problems, and the Mountaineers' interior duo of Kevin Jones and Deniz Kilicli is as physical as it gets. West Virginia lacks experience, doesn't shoot well, and makes poor decisions, but might find a way to win anyway.
-#2 Ohio State needs to avoid foul trouble. The Buckeyes can reach the Final Four and perhaps the national championship game if they do so. Ohio State features lockdown defense, great coaching, talented scorers, and a formidable big man, but they really lack depth. Foul trouble for players like Aaron Craft and Jared Sullinger could sink their Final Four hopes early. If the Buckeyes' best players stay on the court, the path is clear to an Elite Eight date with Syracuse, and possibly beyond.
-The Favorites: Syracuse, Ohio State
-Final Four sleepers: Florida State, Vanderbilt
-Vulnerable top seeds: Wisconsin, Cincinnati
-Cinderella candidates: Harvard, Montana, St. Bonaventure
Monday, March 12, 2012
Stomping on Holy Ground
Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser of Pardon the Interruption obviously aren't college basketball guys. They mostly talk about high-profile NFL and NBA stuff. Important topics like LeBron James' Twitter account and such. So when they debate college basketball, they shouldn't pretend like they know what they're talking about. This exchange on PTI on Monday was ridiculous and downright upsetting.
Tony Kornheiser: "What I found sort of notable was the top sixteen teams, the top sixteen seeds, Mike--take Kentucky out from the SEC, the next fifteen in a row: the Big East, the ACC, the Big Twelve, the Big Ten. I mean, the prejudice towards the power conferences, that not a single mid-major can get in that? Really? Really? Murray State can't get in, Creighton can't get in, UNLV, really?"
Okay.
Deep breath.
Tony. Tony, Tony, Tony. Tony. You managed to cram so many false assumptions into such a small amount of time, it would be impressive if it wasn't so depressing. Let's go one at a time.
First. The top sixteen seeds were from the SEC, the Big East, the ACC, the Big 12, and the Big 10 for a reason. Because the best teams in the country are in those five conferences. It is impossible to debate this. In fact, those are literally the five best conferences in the country based on conference RPI. (Actually, the ACC technically ranks 7th because of the terrible teams at the bottom; still, there's no doubt that UNC, Duke, and FSU are three of the 16 best teams out there.)
If the best teams in the country were in the Atlantic 10, or the Mountain West, or Conference USA, then of course they would be given high seeds. Just look at past years.
2011: SDSU was a #2, BYU was a #3.
2010: New Mexico was a #3.
2009: Memphis was a #2, Xavier was a #3, Gonzaga was a #4.
2008: Memphis was a #1, Xavier was a #3.
And so on. Obviously, the Selection Committee will give a non-power six school a high seed if it earns it. It's just less likely to happen, because such schools don't play in the big conferences that have big schools and big money and big recruits and big programs. If you don't like that system, fine. But don't claim that mid-majors don't get a fair shake in the Selection process. There is no conspiracy. The selection process is so transparent and open, and the criteria for seeding and selection are so well-defined, that claiming an 'anti mid-major scheme' exists is ludicrous.
Now, Kornheiser is upset that mid-majors were shut out of the top sixteen seeds this year, which is just a seeding quirk. Here's why his point of view is, well, wrong.
A) Eleven mid-majors got at-large bids.
B) The Big East got nine bids, the Big 12 and Big 10 got six bids each, and the ACC got five. But the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 tied the SEC with four; the West Coast got three in; and the Missouri Valley and Conference USA each got as many teams in as the Pac-12 (two).
C) The regular season champ of a power six conference did not make the field (Washington).
D) Iona of the MAAC got in over power six schools like Mississippi State and Seton Hall.
E) The group of four or five teams that just missed the tournament included Drexel, Oral Roberts, and Nevada.
F) Wichita State, Temple, and New Mexico earned #5 seeds, and UNLV, San Diego State, and Murray State earned #6 seeds.
G) Tony Kornheiser does not know what he is talking about.
Okay. So. The Selection Committee does not discriminate against mid-majors; in fact, mid-majors were treated quite nicely this year. Now we address the three teams Kornheiser mentioned specifically that he felt deserved a top-four seed: Murray State (6-seed), Creighton (8-seed), and UNLV (6-seed).
None of the three finished in the top 16 in RPI. UNLV was 19, Murray State was 21, and Creighton was 25. All 16 teams that got top-four seeds did rank in the top 16 in RPI, except for Indiana (17) and Wisconsin (23). Indiana, though, beat 1-seed Kentucky, 2-seed Ohio State, and 1-seed Michigan State; Wisconsin beat 4-seed Indiana twice, plus 2-seed Ohio State and, as luck would have it, UNLV.
Creighton's best wins were Wichita State and San Diego State. Murray State's best wins were Memphis and Saint Mary's. UNLV did beat 1-seed North Carolina, plus New Mexico and San Diego State, but the Rebels have that head-to-head loss to Wisconsin plus defeats against TCU and Wyoming. Now throw in the fact that the Big 10 was a much stronger and deeper conference than the MVC, the MWC, and the OVC, and it's easy to see how Indiana, Wisconsin, and the other power-six teams got top four seeds over the best mid-majors.
Anyway, it's not as simple as just switching two teams. There are bracketing rules and geographic concerns to deal with, too. It's possible that a mid-major came close to a top-four seed (Wichita State perhaps?) but was bumped from that line because of another factor.
So, to recap: There is no conspiracy against mid-majors. Mid-majors get top seeds when they earn top seeds, which is less often than power six teams because of obvious reasons. This season, no mid-majors got a top-four seed for the first time in a few years, but six of the eight #5 and #6 seeds went to mid-majors. It's hard to argue that UNLV, Creighton, or Murray State deserved a top-four seed.
Now go back up and read what Tony Kornheiser said. Is it not the dumbest thing ever uttered?
Actually, I lied. Michael Wilbon's response quickly surpassed Kornheiser's comment as the new dumbest thing ever uttered.
Michael Wilbon: "Tony, it's getting like the BCS."
[listener chokes on own disbelief]
MB: "It is getting to the point where there is an armed guard to say, 'You stay out. We don't care if you get to the Final Four in back-to-back years like Butler or VCU or George Mason. We don't want you. And we're going to have to look at college basketball in-- [inaudible; cannot be heard over oozing stupidity]--"
I'm sorry...what? What?! College basketball is getting like...the BCS? College football?!?! I'm sorry...hang on. The sport in which the last two national championship games have featured the Butler freaking Bulldogs is getting to be like the sport that keeps TCU and Boise State out of its national championship games? The sport whose postseason criteria are clearly defined and debated each year is getting to be like the sport whose postseason criteria is determined by a computer formula? The sport with the best postseason tournament in the world is getting to be like the sport with the worst postseason "tournament" ever conceived? The sport that invites teams from conferences-you've-never-heard-of to compete in said ultimate tournament is getting to be like the sport whose champion is from the SEC every year? The sport that's featured three of the best Cinderella stories in sports history over the past six years (George Mason, Butler, and VCU) is getting to be like the sport that actively works to suppress Cinderella stories? Just how many different drugs are you on?
Saying that college basketball has an armed guard keeping mid-major teams from the country's elite is preposterous. Mid-majors make college basketball what it is. There wouldn't be nearly as much national interest in March Madness each year if there weren't so many underdog teams invited and given a chance to compete with the national powerhouses. Of course college basketball belongs to the huge programs, like Michigan State and North Carolina and Connecticut. But no one remembers 2006 as the year Florida won the national title. That's the year George Mason went to the Final Four. That's the year George Mason beat Michigan State and North Carolina and Connecticut. George Mason is what college basketball is all about. Same goes for VCU, and Gordon Hayward and Ali Farokhmanesh, and Gonzaga and Valparaiso, and Davidson and Saint Mary's and Loyola Marymount. There is no equivalent in college football, or anywhere else. Saying that the Selection Committee has an armed guard keeping mid-majors out is so ignorant because the Selection Committee would mean almost nothing if it weren't for mid-majors.
Of course Wilbon's upset that, I guess, mid-majors don't get consistently high seeding even after they prove themselves on the biggest stage. But what is the Selection Committee supposed to do? Give VCU a 2-seed even though the Rams' best win is over South Florida? Invite Butler back to the tournament as a 3-seed even though the Bulldogs didn't win their conference tournament? That's not how it works. Best bodies of work get high seeds, and VCU, Creighton, and Murray State didn't beat very many good teams. There's no armed guard--rules are rules, man. How can you not get this?
As the icing on the cake, both Kornheiser and Wilbon misunderstand some basic seeding concepts after having taken a dump on all of college basketball:
Tony Kornheiser: "I'm surprised that the number-four overall seed is in the same region as the number-eight. That's a great advantage to Missouri and Michigan State. Great advantage."
First of all: the Committee may have put them at 8, but no one really thinks Missouri is the number eight overall seed. No one. The Tigers are better than Duke and Ohio State, and perhaps Kansas, since the two teams split but Mizzou won the Big 12 tourney.
Second of all: you shouldn't be surprised, because this kind of stuff happens all the time. Bracketing rules and geography come into play, which means that the official 1-through-68 seeding often gets jumbled. Missouri was ranked as the number eight team, but got placed where the number five team normally would go because of these other factors. Interestingly, this works out well, because a lot of people would argue that Mizzou is actually much closer to being the number five team rather than the number eight team that the Selection Committee deemed them as.
Third of all: how is this an advantage for Michigan State???? Theoretically yes, a one-seed like the Spartans would rather see the weakest two-seed instead of the strongest. But in this case, is Missouri the weakest two-seed? Uh, no way. Wouldn't Tom Izzo rather see Duke across his bracket? Or Ohio State, who his team has beaten twice? Or perhaps even Kansas? In whose psycho world is sharing a bracket with Missouri a good thing?
Michael Wilbon: "Looks like it. Looks like it to me too, Tony."
In your psycho world, Michael Wilbon.
Bracket Breakdown: South Region
A close look at each of the NCAA tournament's regions begins with analysis of Kentucky's South Region.
-This region is stacked. A while ago, if you told someone that Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, Indiana, Wichita State, UNLV, Connecticut, and Xavier were going to be in the same tournament bracket, they wouldn't believe you. Read that list again. That's nasty.
-That being said, there may not be many upsets here. Because the top teams are so talented, double-digit seeds may have a hard time. #10 Xavier will have a tough go against #7 Notre Dame, and the same for #12 VCU against #5 Wichita State. #3 Baylor would have to really screw up to lose to Nate Wolters and #14 South Dakota State. #13 New Mexico State has a shot against #4 Indiana, but no way am I picking that. #11 Colorado may have the best chance to do some damage. The Buffaloes won four games in four days during the Pac-12 tournament; they ride a wave of momentum into their game with #6 UNLV, a team that's underperformed recently. Andre Roberson can match up with Mike Moser and Colorado could surprise some people. Other than that, I don't see much.
-#1 Kentucky is a near-lock for the Sweet 16. Everyone is talking about how #9 UConn could beat Kentucky in the Round of 32. Sure, they have the talent. But can they even beat #8 Iowa State? The Cyclones have wins over Kansas and Baylor this season, and are led by versatile big man Royce White (Draymond Green Lite) and sharpshooter Scott Christopherson (45% from three-point range). That game looks like a toss-up, with maybe an edge for UConn based on tournament experience and coaching. Anyway, neither team can realistically beat Kentucky in Louisville.
-Will the Wildcats get another shot at #4 Indiana? I don't think so. The Hoosiers lost senior leader Verdell Jones to injury and don't really have a great ball-handler. They're new to postseason play and haven't excelled away from home (their first two games are in Portland). #14 New Mexico State, led by Wendell McKines (18 ppg, 10 rpg), can put up a ton of points and threaten the upset. And even if the Hoosiers survive that game, they'd have a tough matchup against either Wichita State or VCU in the next round.
The Hoosiers won't be in my Sweet 16.
-#5 Wichita State is scary-good. The Shockers won the NIT last year; they're experienced, balanced, efficient, and talented. Joe Ragland can penetrate and score; 7-footer Garrett Stutz is a formidable presence inside. They're road warriors and should be well-equipped to handle #12 VCU's disruptive defense. I think they can win two tough games and then move on to the Sweet 16, where they should be competitive with Kentucky.
-#3 Baylor and #6 UNLV could reach the Final Four. They could also lose in the first round; that's the risk of picking them to make a run. Both teams have enviable talent at multiple positions, but have underperformed at times this season. Baylor has an electrifying playmaker in Pierre Jackson, an NBA-sized frontcourt in Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller, a guy who can sink 3's in Brady Heslip, and experienced tournament players in Quincy Acy and A.J. Walton. And the Bears looked great in the Big 12 tournament. But they've been inconsistent, especially defensively and on the boards, and have been uncompetitive for long stretches against elite teams. UNLV boasts Mike Moser, Chase Stanback, Oscar Bellfield, and Anthony Marshall, a quartet that contributed to a huge victory over North Carolina. But the Rebels have suffered some puzzling losses and are just 5-5 in their past 10 games. UNLV (more so than Baylor) looks susceptible to a first-round exit (they play red-hot #11 Colorado). Yet if either team plays up to its potential, one could be playing Kentucky for a Final Four berth next week.
-#7 Notre Dame/#10 Xavier is a toss-up. Both teams are a little underwhelming. #2 Duke should consider itself fortunate that it didn't get a 7-seed like Saint Mary's or Florida, or a 10-seed like West Virginia. Mike Brey doesn't have a lot of tournament success with the Irish, but Notre Dame's defense will force Xavier to take bad jump shots, and the Musketeers have suffered through some long scoring droughts this season. If the Irish hit their threes, they should win handily. If not, it'll be a down-to-the-wire battle, a situation in which experienced playmaker Tu Holloway could excel.
-Can anyone beat Kentucky? Duke, Baylor, and UNLV are all flawed, but whoever emerges from the bracket's bottom half could give the Wildcats a run. Actually, the team with the best chance may be Wichita State. Garrett Stutz can match up with Anthony Davis and the Wildcats showed some vulnerability in the SEC tournament (mostly hoisting up, and missing, too many 3's). Wichita State would have been a sleeper pick to reach the Final Four had they not been seeded in Kentucky's region. Instead, the Wildcats should reach New Orleans, where they will be the favorites to win the whole thing.
-The Favorite: Kentucky
-Final Four sleepers: Baylor, Wichita State, UNLV
-Vulnerable top seeds: Duke, Indiana, UNLV
-Cinderella candidates: Xavier, Colorado, VCU, New Mexico State
-This region is stacked. A while ago, if you told someone that Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, Indiana, Wichita State, UNLV, Connecticut, and Xavier were going to be in the same tournament bracket, they wouldn't believe you. Read that list again. That's nasty.
-That being said, there may not be many upsets here. Because the top teams are so talented, double-digit seeds may have a hard time. #10 Xavier will have a tough go against #7 Notre Dame, and the same for #12 VCU against #5 Wichita State. #3 Baylor would have to really screw up to lose to Nate Wolters and #14 South Dakota State. #13 New Mexico State has a shot against #4 Indiana, but no way am I picking that. #11 Colorado may have the best chance to do some damage. The Buffaloes won four games in four days during the Pac-12 tournament; they ride a wave of momentum into their game with #6 UNLV, a team that's underperformed recently. Andre Roberson can match up with Mike Moser and Colorado could surprise some people. Other than that, I don't see much.
-#1 Kentucky is a near-lock for the Sweet 16. Everyone is talking about how #9 UConn could beat Kentucky in the Round of 32. Sure, they have the talent. But can they even beat #8 Iowa State? The Cyclones have wins over Kansas and Baylor this season, and are led by versatile big man Royce White (Draymond Green Lite) and sharpshooter Scott Christopherson (45% from three-point range). That game looks like a toss-up, with maybe an edge for UConn based on tournament experience and coaching. Anyway, neither team can realistically beat Kentucky in Louisville.
-Will the Wildcats get another shot at #4 Indiana? I don't think so. The Hoosiers lost senior leader Verdell Jones to injury and don't really have a great ball-handler. They're new to postseason play and haven't excelled away from home (their first two games are in Portland). #14 New Mexico State, led by Wendell McKines (18 ppg, 10 rpg), can put up a ton of points and threaten the upset. And even if the Hoosiers survive that game, they'd have a tough matchup against either Wichita State or VCU in the next round.
The Hoosiers won't be in my Sweet 16.
-#5 Wichita State is scary-good. The Shockers won the NIT last year; they're experienced, balanced, efficient, and talented. Joe Ragland can penetrate and score; 7-footer Garrett Stutz is a formidable presence inside. They're road warriors and should be well-equipped to handle #12 VCU's disruptive defense. I think they can win two tough games and then move on to the Sweet 16, where they should be competitive with Kentucky.
-#3 Baylor and #6 UNLV could reach the Final Four. They could also lose in the first round; that's the risk of picking them to make a run. Both teams have enviable talent at multiple positions, but have underperformed at times this season. Baylor has an electrifying playmaker in Pierre Jackson, an NBA-sized frontcourt in Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller, a guy who can sink 3's in Brady Heslip, and experienced tournament players in Quincy Acy and A.J. Walton. And the Bears looked great in the Big 12 tournament. But they've been inconsistent, especially defensively and on the boards, and have been uncompetitive for long stretches against elite teams. UNLV boasts Mike Moser, Chase Stanback, Oscar Bellfield, and Anthony Marshall, a quartet that contributed to a huge victory over North Carolina. But the Rebels have suffered some puzzling losses and are just 5-5 in their past 10 games. UNLV (more so than Baylor) looks susceptible to a first-round exit (they play red-hot #11 Colorado). Yet if either team plays up to its potential, one could be playing Kentucky for a Final Four berth next week.
-#7 Notre Dame/#10 Xavier is a toss-up. Both teams are a little underwhelming. #2 Duke should consider itself fortunate that it didn't get a 7-seed like Saint Mary's or Florida, or a 10-seed like West Virginia. Mike Brey doesn't have a lot of tournament success with the Irish, but Notre Dame's defense will force Xavier to take bad jump shots, and the Musketeers have suffered through some long scoring droughts this season. If the Irish hit their threes, they should win handily. If not, it'll be a down-to-the-wire battle, a situation in which experienced playmaker Tu Holloway could excel.
-Can anyone beat Kentucky? Duke, Baylor, and UNLV are all flawed, but whoever emerges from the bracket's bottom half could give the Wildcats a run. Actually, the team with the best chance may be Wichita State. Garrett Stutz can match up with Anthony Davis and the Wildcats showed some vulnerability in the SEC tournament (mostly hoisting up, and missing, too many 3's). Wichita State would have been a sleeper pick to reach the Final Four had they not been seeded in Kentucky's region. Instead, the Wildcats should reach New Orleans, where they will be the favorites to win the whole thing.
-The Favorite: Kentucky
-Final Four sleepers: Baylor, Wichita State, UNLV
-Vulnerable top seeds: Duke, Indiana, UNLV
-Cinderella candidates: Xavier, Colorado, VCU, New Mexico State
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Bracket Picks by the Numbers
Here are some recent trends and statistics from past NCAA tournaments, and their implications for making bracket selections.
Fact: #1 seeds are 108-0 against #16 seeds.
Implication: Pretty simple. Send all your #1 seeds into the Round of 32, unless your son plays for Western Kentucky.
Fact: However, a #1 seed has lost before the Sweet 16 in each of the last two tournaments.
Implication: Either you think this is the beginning of a trend, or you think that lightning won't strike three years in a row. If you're in the first camp, then potential upsets to think about are #9 Kansas State's size and physicality over #1 Syracuse, #8 Memphis' athleticism over #1 Michigan State, and #9 Connecticut's talent over #1 Kentucky. In you're in the second camp, take comfort in the fact that only 13% of #1 seeds fail to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Fact: #2 seeds have lost to #15 seeds just four times in the last 27 years.
Implication: You're probably sending your #2 seeds into the Round of 32, as well. But if you're feeling particuarly feisty and want to pick an upset here, go with #15 Detroit over #2 Kansas. We all know what's happened to Kansas against lower seeds in recent years (cough-Farokhmanesh-cough), and Detroit is led by formidable seven-footer Eli Holman. Butler coach Brad Stevens has said that there's never been a 15-seed like the Titans. If a #2 seed is going to lose (for the first time in 11 years), this is where it's going to happen. Not a pick for the faint of heart, though.
Fact: The Horizon League boasts at least one tournament win in each of the last seven years.
Implication: The Horizon League only sent one team to the tournament this year, and it's not Butler. It's...Detroit. So if the streak is going to continue...well, see above.
Fact: Almost one-third of #2 seeds fail to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Implication: There's the difference between being a #1 and a #2 seed. It would be wise to pick a #2 seed to lose its second game. Duke has looked vulnerable recently. Kansas and Ohio State could fall to a WCC team (Saint Mary's and Gonzaga respectively). And Missouri could be out-Missouri'd by Florida.
Fact: #3 seeds have won 85% of their games against #14 seeds.
Implication: This is good news for Baylor (against South Dakota State), Florida State (against St. Bonaventure), and Georgetown (against Belmont). But if a #14 seed is going to win a game, Marquette might want to watch out. The Golden Eagles play the winner of the Iona/BYU play-in game, and both of those teams are much stronger than the traditional 14-seed. Remember, Morehead State beat Louisville in the 3/14 matchup last year, and Ohio crushed Georgetown the year before that. An upset could easily happen to one of these #3 seeds.
Fact: In the past two years, Georgetown has lost in the first round to an 11-seed and a 14-seed.
Implication: If you're looking for one of those #3 seeds to lose, the Hoyas have some recent history of underperforming as a high seed.
Fact: In the past two tournaments, only three of the eight #3 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
Implication: Yes 85% of #3 seeds win their first game, but recently they've hit trouble after that. Check your bracket, and if you have all four of Baylor, Florida State, Georgetown, and Marquette reaching the Sweet Sixteen, reconsider.
Fact: #4 seeds have won 79% of their games against #13 seeds.
Fact: #13 seeds have won at least one game in each of the past four tournaments, and 9 of the past 11.
Implication: It's unlikely that all the #4 seeds escape first-round upsets. Which one(s) will fall? I'm not sure about picking New Mexico State over Indiana or Montana over Wisconsin. But take a look at Ohio (beat Georgetown two years back) against Michigan, and Davidson (beat Kansas this season) against an offensively challenged Louisville team.
Fact: In the past seven years, only 36% of the #4 seeds reached the Sweet Sixteen.
Implication: Even if the #4 seeds survive the first round, thet won't always win a second game. There's almost no way Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Louisville all reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Fact: #5 seeds beat #12 seeds only two-thirds of the time.
Fact: #12 seeds have gone 0-for-4 only three times in tournament history.
Implication: It's a near-certainty that a #5 seed will fall in the first round, and perhaps two will. Vanderbilt has lost to a double-digit seed in each of its past three tourney appearances, and gets a solid Harvard team this year. Wichita State could be vulnerable against a VCU defense that forces an insane amount of turnovers. Long Beach State is experienced and with Casper Ware's leadership could knock off New Mexico. And Fran Dunphy has had limited success in the tournament, so his Temple squad could lose to the winner of the Cal/South Florida game. If you're not picking at least one of these #12 seeds to win a game, you're doing the wrong thing.
Fact: Like #5 seeds, #6 seeds beat #11 seeds only two-thirds of the time.
Fact: #6 seeds have not swept all four of their games since 2004.
Implication: Same as #5 seeds: pick one or two 11's to pull off a Round of 64 upset. I wouldn't be so confident about Colorado State beating Murray State, but N.C. State (over San Diego State), Texas (over Cincinnati), and Colorado (over UNLV) could each be justified as a good upset pick.
Fact: #7/#10 and #8/#9 matchups have historically been toss-ups.
Implication: Ignore seedings in these games, as the teams are evenly matched. And don't pick all four of the same seed to win, as that rarely happens. As an aside: #9 Connecticut is 16-1 under Jim Calhoun in the Round of 64. Act accordingly.
Fact: At least one double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 25 of the past 27 tournaments.
Fact: At least two double-digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in 12 of the past 15 tournaments.
Implication: Pick at least one 10, 11, or 12 seed to reach the Sweet 16, and perhaps two. There's no shortage of options--Xavier, West Virginia, N.C. State, VCU, Long Beach State, California, etc. Don't get too cute with #13 and #14 seeds winning two games, though--only one school seeded lower than 12th has reached the Sweet Sixteen since 2000 (Bradley, 2006).
Fact: The Big East has gotten 19 teams into the tournament over the past two years; only four of those reached the Sweet 16.
Fact: In the past two tournaments, a team was upset by a seed at least five spots lower than it 20 times; a Big East team was the loser 10 of those times.
Implication: For whatever reason, the Big East hasn't performed well in the tournament recently. And this is considered to be a down year for the conference compared to its recent 'dominance.' High seeds like Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, and even Syracuse could be prone to early upsets.
Fact: At least one team seeded #6 or worse has reached the Elite Eight in 22 of the past 27 tournaments.
Implication: Pick an underdog to reach the Elite Eight. It doesn't have to be an out-of-nowhere, impossible-to-pick, double-digit seed like VCU. Look at 6-seeds (like Cincinnati, Murray State, and UNLV), 7-seeds (Saint Mary's, Notre Dame, and Florida) 8-seeds (Memphis), 9-seeds (UConn), or 10-seeds (Xavier, West Virginia).
Fact: In the last eight years that the #1 overall seed has been revealed, that team has reached the Final Four just three times, and won the championship once.
Implication: Bad news for Kentucky. The only team over that stretch to win the title was Florida in 2007. The good news is that Kentucky compares favorably to that team (same conference, dominant season, strong frontcourt). But those odds are scary.
Fact: John Calipari's four #1-seeded teams have never lost before the Elite Eight.
Implication: So on the flip side, here's some comforting news for Wildcats fans. Calipari's team won't be prone to an early upset, which is bad news for South Region hopefuls like Indiana, Wichita State, and UConn.
Fact: Both times Syracuse has been a #1 seed, the Orange lost in the Sweet 16.
Implication: This probably doesn't mean anything. But it might.
Fact: Before Kemba last year, the Big East hadn't won a title since 2004.
Fact: The Big 10 hasn't won a title since 2000.
Fact: The Pac-12 hasn't won a title since 1997.
Fact: The Big 12 has won one title since 1997.
Fact: The ACC has won five of the past 11 titles.
Implication: This might not mean much, but it's good news for North Carolina, Duke, and Florida State, and not so much for everyone else.
Fact: All four #1 seeds have reached the Final Four just once (2008).
Fact: Three #1 seeds have reached the Final Four just three times.
Implication: Never pick all four #1 seeds to reach the Final Four, because that's as unlikely to happen as it is boring. Interestingly, having three #1 seeds reach the Final Four is nearly as improbable.
Fact: Conference tournaments matter.
In last year's Final Four, Kentucky, Butler, and national champ Connecticut each won their conference tourneys, and VCU lost in its championship game. The year before, West Virginia, Butler, and national champ Duke each won their conference tourneys. And keep in mind that no team has won a title after losing its first conference tournament game (look what happened to Pittsburgh last season). This is bad news for Marquette this year.
Fact: Nine of the past thirteen national champions were #1 seeds.
Fact: 29 of the past 33 national champions were either #1, #2, or #3 seeds.
Implication: Don't pick someone completely off the map to win the whole thing. As it's been discussed, lots of high seeds will lose early, but that doesn't mean one of them won't be the last one standing.
Fact: #1 seeds are 108-0 against #16 seeds.
Implication: Pretty simple. Send all your #1 seeds into the Round of 32, unless your son plays for Western Kentucky.
Fact: However, a #1 seed has lost before the Sweet 16 in each of the last two tournaments.
Implication: Either you think this is the beginning of a trend, or you think that lightning won't strike three years in a row. If you're in the first camp, then potential upsets to think about are #9 Kansas State's size and physicality over #1 Syracuse, #8 Memphis' athleticism over #1 Michigan State, and #9 Connecticut's talent over #1 Kentucky. In you're in the second camp, take comfort in the fact that only 13% of #1 seeds fail to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Fact: #2 seeds have lost to #15 seeds just four times in the last 27 years.
Implication: You're probably sending your #2 seeds into the Round of 32, as well. But if you're feeling particuarly feisty and want to pick an upset here, go with #15 Detroit over #2 Kansas. We all know what's happened to Kansas against lower seeds in recent years (cough-Farokhmanesh-cough), and Detroit is led by formidable seven-footer Eli Holman. Butler coach Brad Stevens has said that there's never been a 15-seed like the Titans. If a #2 seed is going to lose (for the first time in 11 years), this is where it's going to happen. Not a pick for the faint of heart, though.
Fact: The Horizon League boasts at least one tournament win in each of the last seven years.
Implication: The Horizon League only sent one team to the tournament this year, and it's not Butler. It's...Detroit. So if the streak is going to continue...well, see above.
Fact: Almost one-third of #2 seeds fail to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Implication: There's the difference between being a #1 and a #2 seed. It would be wise to pick a #2 seed to lose its second game. Duke has looked vulnerable recently. Kansas and Ohio State could fall to a WCC team (Saint Mary's and Gonzaga respectively). And Missouri could be out-Missouri'd by Florida.
Fact: #3 seeds have won 85% of their games against #14 seeds.
Implication: This is good news for Baylor (against South Dakota State), Florida State (against St. Bonaventure), and Georgetown (against Belmont). But if a #14 seed is going to win a game, Marquette might want to watch out. The Golden Eagles play the winner of the Iona/BYU play-in game, and both of those teams are much stronger than the traditional 14-seed. Remember, Morehead State beat Louisville in the 3/14 matchup last year, and Ohio crushed Georgetown the year before that. An upset could easily happen to one of these #3 seeds.
Fact: In the past two years, Georgetown has lost in the first round to an 11-seed and a 14-seed.
Implication: If you're looking for one of those #3 seeds to lose, the Hoyas have some recent history of underperforming as a high seed.
Fact: In the past two tournaments, only three of the eight #3 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
Implication: Yes 85% of #3 seeds win their first game, but recently they've hit trouble after that. Check your bracket, and if you have all four of Baylor, Florida State, Georgetown, and Marquette reaching the Sweet Sixteen, reconsider.
Fact: #4 seeds have won 79% of their games against #13 seeds.
Fact: #13 seeds have won at least one game in each of the past four tournaments, and 9 of the past 11.
Implication: It's unlikely that all the #4 seeds escape first-round upsets. Which one(s) will fall? I'm not sure about picking New Mexico State over Indiana or Montana over Wisconsin. But take a look at Ohio (beat Georgetown two years back) against Michigan, and Davidson (beat Kansas this season) against an offensively challenged Louisville team.
Fact: In the past seven years, only 36% of the #4 seeds reached the Sweet Sixteen.
Implication: Even if the #4 seeds survive the first round, thet won't always win a second game. There's almost no way Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Louisville all reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Fact: #5 seeds beat #12 seeds only two-thirds of the time.
Fact: #12 seeds have gone 0-for-4 only three times in tournament history.
Implication: It's a near-certainty that a #5 seed will fall in the first round, and perhaps two will. Vanderbilt has lost to a double-digit seed in each of its past three tourney appearances, and gets a solid Harvard team this year. Wichita State could be vulnerable against a VCU defense that forces an insane amount of turnovers. Long Beach State is experienced and with Casper Ware's leadership could knock off New Mexico. And Fran Dunphy has had limited success in the tournament, so his Temple squad could lose to the winner of the Cal/South Florida game. If you're not picking at least one of these #12 seeds to win a game, you're doing the wrong thing.
Fact: Like #5 seeds, #6 seeds beat #11 seeds only two-thirds of the time.
Fact: #6 seeds have not swept all four of their games since 2004.
Implication: Same as #5 seeds: pick one or two 11's to pull off a Round of 64 upset. I wouldn't be so confident about Colorado State beating Murray State, but N.C. State (over San Diego State), Texas (over Cincinnati), and Colorado (over UNLV) could each be justified as a good upset pick.
Fact: #7/#10 and #8/#9 matchups have historically been toss-ups.
Implication: Ignore seedings in these games, as the teams are evenly matched. And don't pick all four of the same seed to win, as that rarely happens. As an aside: #9 Connecticut is 16-1 under Jim Calhoun in the Round of 64. Act accordingly.
Fact: At least one double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 25 of the past 27 tournaments.
Fact: At least two double-digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in 12 of the past 15 tournaments.
Implication: Pick at least one 10, 11, or 12 seed to reach the Sweet 16, and perhaps two. There's no shortage of options--Xavier, West Virginia, N.C. State, VCU, Long Beach State, California, etc. Don't get too cute with #13 and #14 seeds winning two games, though--only one school seeded lower than 12th has reached the Sweet Sixteen since 2000 (Bradley, 2006).
Fact: The Big East has gotten 19 teams into the tournament over the past two years; only four of those reached the Sweet 16.
Fact: In the past two tournaments, a team was upset by a seed at least five spots lower than it 20 times; a Big East team was the loser 10 of those times.
Implication: For whatever reason, the Big East hasn't performed well in the tournament recently. And this is considered to be a down year for the conference compared to its recent 'dominance.' High seeds like Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, and even Syracuse could be prone to early upsets.
Fact: At least one team seeded #6 or worse has reached the Elite Eight in 22 of the past 27 tournaments.
Implication: Pick an underdog to reach the Elite Eight. It doesn't have to be an out-of-nowhere, impossible-to-pick, double-digit seed like VCU. Look at 6-seeds (like Cincinnati, Murray State, and UNLV), 7-seeds (Saint Mary's, Notre Dame, and Florida) 8-seeds (Memphis), 9-seeds (UConn), or 10-seeds (Xavier, West Virginia).
Fact: In the last eight years that the #1 overall seed has been revealed, that team has reached the Final Four just three times, and won the championship once.
Implication: Bad news for Kentucky. The only team over that stretch to win the title was Florida in 2007. The good news is that Kentucky compares favorably to that team (same conference, dominant season, strong frontcourt). But those odds are scary.
Fact: John Calipari's four #1-seeded teams have never lost before the Elite Eight.
Implication: So on the flip side, here's some comforting news for Wildcats fans. Calipari's team won't be prone to an early upset, which is bad news for South Region hopefuls like Indiana, Wichita State, and UConn.
Fact: Both times Syracuse has been a #1 seed, the Orange lost in the Sweet 16.
Implication: This probably doesn't mean anything. But it might.
Fact: Before Kemba last year, the Big East hadn't won a title since 2004.
Fact: The Big 10 hasn't won a title since 2000.
Fact: The Pac-12 hasn't won a title since 1997.
Fact: The Big 12 has won one title since 1997.
Fact: The ACC has won five of the past 11 titles.
Implication: This might not mean much, but it's good news for North Carolina, Duke, and Florida State, and not so much for everyone else.
Fact: All four #1 seeds have reached the Final Four just once (2008).
Fact: Three #1 seeds have reached the Final Four just three times.
Implication: Never pick all four #1 seeds to reach the Final Four, because that's as unlikely to happen as it is boring. Interestingly, having three #1 seeds reach the Final Four is nearly as improbable.
Fact: Conference tournaments matter.
In last year's Final Four, Kentucky, Butler, and national champ Connecticut each won their conference tourneys, and VCU lost in its championship game. The year before, West Virginia, Butler, and national champ Duke each won their conference tourneys. And keep in mind that no team has won a title after losing its first conference tournament game (look what happened to Pittsburgh last season). This is bad news for Marquette this year.
Fact: Nine of the past thirteen national champions were #1 seeds.
Fact: 29 of the past 33 national champions were either #1, #2, or #3 seeds.
Implication: Don't pick someone completely off the map to win the whole thing. As it's been discussed, lots of high seeds will lose early, but that doesn't mean one of them won't be the last one standing.
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