Selection Sunday is just a day away. There are still about 11 spots in the NCAA Tournament up for grabs.
Well, that's oversimplifying things. Crazy stuff could still hypothetically happen in a few conference tournaments, like Maryland winning the ACC, which would throw a wrench into everything. But accounting for all the teams that have already locked themselves into the NCAA Tournament field regardless of any other shenanigans, there are still about 11 at-large spots available. Here are the programs in contention for those spots, ordered roughly from safest to most in danger of Sunday disappointment.
The Likelies (teams that are probably in the safe Group of Eleven, but "lock" is too strong a word)
1. Villanova: Did lose to Louisville in the Big East tournament, but took care of business by avoiding a bad loss to St. John's before that. Villanova has too many good wins (Louisville, Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette) to miss out on March Madness. One would think.
2. Temple: Scored a huge comeback victory against VCU in the regular season finale. That, combined with an 11-5 record in the Atlantic 10 and nonconference wins over Syracuse and Villanova, ought to be enough for the Owls. Still not a lock thanks to some horrifying losses and an early exit from the Atlantic 10 tournament.
3. Iowa State: The Cyclones were down by as many as 14 points in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament against Oklahoma. A loss could have sent them to the NIT. Instead, they rallied to defeat another quality bubble team (on a neutral floor). Should be okay even after falling to Kansas in the semis.
4. Oklahoma: Thanks to the aforementioned comeback, the Sooners probably just got leapfrogged by Iowa State on the Selection Committee's totem pole. They've now lost three out of five, including defeats to Texas and TCU. This might have cost Oklahoma a bid -- in a different year. In 2013, the rest of the bubble is too weak for the Sooners to be relegated to the NIT.
5. Colorado: Actually a very nice resumé here. The 39th-best RPI, a sweep of Oregon, and wins over Colorado State, Arizona, and California. The Buffaloes would've been a lock ... had they not lost their final home game of the year to Oregon State. Thankfully they won the rematch in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament, though they were eliminated by Arizona a day later. Looking good.
6. California: In the same boat as Colorado. Cal should've been a lock, then lost the final two games of the season -- to Stanford and Utah. Oof. It would still be a surprise if the second-place team in the Pac-12 didn't make the tournament.
For you math wizards, that leaves only five bids remaining for everybody else. This is where things get sticky.
The True Coin-Flips (teams that legitimately won't have any idea about their fate until Greg Gumbel does/doesn't announce their name on Sunday's national broadcast)
7. Boise State: The Broncos' case rests almost entirely on how strong the Selection Committee thinks the Mountain West Conference really is. They went 9-7 in the MWC with wins over UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State, as well as a road nonconference win at Creighton. However, they bowed out in the first round of their conference tournament and can't add to their resumé. So they're stuck in bubble limbo. It may come down to the Committee deciding between a fifth team from the MWC and a third or fourth from the SEC. I'd rather see Boise State.
8. Saint Mary's: A difficult team to judge. The Gaels have a good RPI (33) and a nice 23-6 record (with half of those losses coming to Gonzaga); they went to the WCC title game; and they look pretty good. Yet they also did nothing outside of the West Coast Conference besides beating Creighton at home. Subjectively, Saint Mary's is good enough to make the tournament. It's also really easy to envision a scenario in which the Selection Committee makes an example out of the Gaels by leaving them out of the field as punishment for undertaking a pansy schedule.
9. La Salle: A lot like Boise State, except we're talking about the fifth team out of the Atlantic 10 instead of the MWC. The RPI is good at 38, and they beat Butler, VCU, and Villanova. A solid body of work here. The problem: they're out of the A-10 Tournament and risk being leapfrogged by one of the teams below.
10. Alabama: One of the big bubble winners on a busy Friday. The Crimson Tide won what was basically an elimination game against Tennessee to advance to the SEC semifinals, where they'll face Florida. A win in that game wouldn't just put Alabama in position for an at-large berth -- it would put them a win away from taking the decision out of the Committee's hands by simply stealing the SEC's automatic bid.
11. Middle Tennessee State: If an off-the-map school is going to get a surprise bid, this is the one. The Blue Raiders went 19-1 in the Sun Belt but were upset in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament, creating an interesting predicament. Their RPI ranks 31st in the country -- historically, an RPI that high is almost always good enough to make the tournament. Unfortunately, their only good win came against Ole Miss. That's all they've got. There's no way to know how the Committee is going to handle this wild card.
12. Ole Miss: It's bizarre that Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee State happened to play each other months ago. The latter's victory in that game could end up being hugely significant. However, Ole Miss does have an edge: they're still playing. They pulled off a must-have comeback victory against Missouri on Friday to advance to the semifinals of the SEC tournament, where they'll face Vanderbilt. A win in that game, and thus an appearance in the finals, could easily secure this team a bid.
The Faces Pressed Up Against the Window (teams that need either an obscenely generous decision from the Selection Committee or a deep conference tournament run to reach the field of 68)
13. Tennessee: Just came up short in the SEC quarterfinals against Alabama. That didn't help the key flaw on their resumé, a lack of a quality win away from home. How much respect will the Selection Committee have for the SEC? We'll find out soon enough.
14. Virginia: The Cavs have more than enough good wins. It's the bad losses that cripple their resumé and push their RPI into the 60s. The consensus was that they'd have to do damage in the ACC Tournament to stay alive; then they were blown out by N.C. State. Oh well. You should've beaten Old Dominion, Virginia. This will be an interesting litmus test with regard to what the Committee values more -- the ability to beat elite teams or the ability to avoid bad losses.
15. Maryland: If only the Terrapins played every opponent like they play against Duke. Their resumé now consists of two wins against the Blue Devils, one against N.C. State, and ... literally nothing else. Their nonconference schedule was miserable. They were swept by Virginia and Florida State. Getting to the ACC championship game was the bare minimum from the start, and even that might not be enough. Winning the whole tournament might be their only way in at this point.
16. Kentucky: Oh man. What happened here? Kentucky was trending upwards after beating both Florida and Missouri without Nerlens Noel. Then the Wildcats suffered one of the most jaw-dropping losses imaginable by falling to Vanderbilt in the SEC quarterfinals. It wasn't even close. And it absolutely should cost Kentucky a bid.
17. Massachusetts: Still alive in the Atlantic 10 tournament, and still technically a bubble team. Like Maryland, though, the Minutemen are behind too many teams in the queue and really need to win the A-10's automatic bid.
18 & 19. Baylor and Iowa: Both were on the periphery of the bubble entering the tournament, but both lost heartbreaking quarterfinal games. Almost certainly out.
This whole thing is very fluid. Teams are rising from the bubble grave (Maryland, Ole Miss, Alabama), and others are falling flat on their faces (Kentucky, Virginia, KENTUCKY). If the Selection Committee had to make its decision right now, those last 11 slots would probably be taken by the six "Likelies," along with, say, Boise State, Saint Mary's, La Salle, Middle Tennessee State, and [insert random SEC team here].
It's important to note, however, that most of those last few teams are idle. They're done playing and can't improve their stock. This leaves them vulnerable to being leapfrogged by teams that are still alive. In fact, if Alabama and Ole Miss both win Saturday in the semifinals (against Florida and Vandy,) they would probably both move into the projected field of 68, bumping two of those other helpless teams out. Suddenly, the SEC has become the central theater of bubble warfare. And the fact that La Salle and Saint Mary's suddenly have huge rooting interests in the SEC Tournament semifinals speaks to just how Mad things get around this time of year.
Showing posts with label Bubble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bubble. Show all posts
Friday, March 15, 2013
Friday, March 8, 2013
Five Weekend Bubble Games of Note
#11 FLORIDA AT KENTUCKY
The last time Kentucky had a do-or-die bubble game was two weeks ago, when the Wildcats beat Missouri in overtime. Since then, they've wasted all of that goodwill by losing their last two road games at Arkansas and Georgia. Now they're back where they started: needing a massive win to avoid becoming the 5th defending national champion since 1985 to miss the tournament altogether the following season.
The pick: Florida, but Kentucky isn't eliminated from tournament consideration just yet.
#4 KANSAS AT BAYLOR
Baylor has the Big 12's leading scorer, a likely lottery pick, and a handful of role players who went to the Elite Eight last year -- and the Bears are still on track to miss the NCAA Tournament. They did beat Oklahoma State, but their road win at Kentucky has deteriorated in value and a 17-13 overall record isn't going to cut it, not when two of those losses came at home to Charleston and Northwestern. There isn't a bigger disappointment in college basketball. This home game against Kansas represents their last chance to get back on the right side of the bubble.
The pick: Kansas. Baylor is not a good team.
MISSOURI AT TENNESSEE
Jordan McRae is on fire and the red-hot Volunteers have seven wins in their last eight games, including victories over Kentucky and Florida. Beating Missouri would complete the box set. If they pull this off, Tennessee would suddenly be in position for a relatively surprising NCAA Tournament bid.
The pick: Tennessee. Betting against Missouri on the road is one of the safer wagers in sports.
MARYLAND AT VIRGINIA
Since beating Duke, Maryland is 2-3 with losses to Boston College and Georgia Tech, and Virginia is 0-2 with losses to Boston College and Florida State. It's unlikely that both of these teams earn at-large bids, so this matchup amounts to something of a bubble elimination game. Winner stays alive, loser goes to the NIT.
The pick: Virginia. The Cavs haven't lost at home in ACC play and they're the better team anyway.
#21 VCU AT TEMPLE
Out of all of these bubble teams, Temple is the safest thanks to a neutral-court win over Syracuse and a road win at Villanova. But the Owls have also been prone to bad losses (Canisius? Duquesne?), so who knows what awful team they might lose to in the first round of the Atlantic 10 tournament. Beating VCU at home would seal the deal for Temple and eliminate any Selection Sunday stress.
The pick: VCU wins anyway -- the Rams have the 15th-most efficient offense in the country to pair with their trademark Havoc defense.
The last time Kentucky had a do-or-die bubble game was two weeks ago, when the Wildcats beat Missouri in overtime. Since then, they've wasted all of that goodwill by losing their last two road games at Arkansas and Georgia. Now they're back where they started: needing a massive win to avoid becoming the 5th defending national champion since 1985 to miss the tournament altogether the following season.
The pick: Florida, but Kentucky isn't eliminated from tournament consideration just yet.
#4 KANSAS AT BAYLOR
Baylor has the Big 12's leading scorer, a likely lottery pick, and a handful of role players who went to the Elite Eight last year -- and the Bears are still on track to miss the NCAA Tournament. They did beat Oklahoma State, but their road win at Kentucky has deteriorated in value and a 17-13 overall record isn't going to cut it, not when two of those losses came at home to Charleston and Northwestern. There isn't a bigger disappointment in college basketball. This home game against Kansas represents their last chance to get back on the right side of the bubble.
The pick: Kansas. Baylor is not a good team.
MISSOURI AT TENNESSEE
Jordan McRae is on fire and the red-hot Volunteers have seven wins in their last eight games, including victories over Kentucky and Florida. Beating Missouri would complete the box set. If they pull this off, Tennessee would suddenly be in position for a relatively surprising NCAA Tournament bid.
The pick: Tennessee. Betting against Missouri on the road is one of the safer wagers in sports.
MARYLAND AT VIRGINIA
Since beating Duke, Maryland is 2-3 with losses to Boston College and Georgia Tech, and Virginia is 0-2 with losses to Boston College and Florida State. It's unlikely that both of these teams earn at-large bids, so this matchup amounts to something of a bubble elimination game. Winner stays alive, loser goes to the NIT.
The pick: Virginia. The Cavs haven't lost at home in ACC play and they're the better team anyway.
#21 VCU AT TEMPLE
Out of all of these bubble teams, Temple is the safest thanks to a neutral-court win over Syracuse and a road win at Villanova. But the Owls have also been prone to bad losses (Canisius? Duquesne?), so who knows what awful team they might lose to in the first round of the Atlantic 10 tournament. Beating VCU at home would seal the deal for Temple and eliminate any Selection Sunday stress.
The pick: VCU wins anyway -- the Rams have the 15th-most efficient offense in the country to pair with their trademark Havoc defense.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
The Four Types of Bubble Teams
While most of the discussion within college basketball has centered around the #1 seeds, the debate over the teams on the "bubble" is even more significant. These are the 15 or 20 programs jostling with each other for the final few slots in the NCAA Tournament field. And though none of them are going to win the national title, they're slated to be 11- or 12-seeds -- in other words, the most likely candidates to pull off improbable upsets and bust our brackets. Deciding which of them make the field in the first place is a process with huge, domino-like repercussions. Most bubble teams fall under these four categories:
1. High Peaks, Lower Valleys
What should the Selection Committee value more -- the ability to get great wins, or the ability to avoid bad losses? The answer to that question will decide the fate of the teams in this category, all of which have proven they can hang with the elite, but also fail spectacularly against weaker opponents. The poster child here is Villanova. The Wildcats beat Louisville and Syracuse in the same week in January, and have also beaten Georgetown, Connecticut, and Marquette. But the losses are ugly: Columbia, Alabama, Seton Hall, and Providence (twice). Temple is another example, having beaten Syracuse, fellow bubble-dweller Villanova, and Saint Louis, but also losing to Canisius and four inferior teams within the Atlantic 10, including last-place Duquesne. Virginia has a strange case too: a nonconference win at Wisconsin and ACC wins over Duke, N.C. State, and North Carolina are all very impressive, until you see each of their seven stunning losses (George Mason, Delaware, Old Dominion, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Boston College).
Verdict: All three pass the eye test, but all three need to avoid yet another bad loss in their conference tournaments. Based on their collective track records ... that's not exactly a given.
2. Dominant Season in a Minor Conference
Not all bubble teams have bad losses. Some actually have gaudy records. But they were achieved in small conferences, so we don't have any idea how good they really are. Memphis isn't even on the bubble, yet serves as the best example here -- the Tigers entered the national polls last week and are considered a tournament lock thanks to a 15-0 record in Conference USA. Here's the thing, though: their best nonconference win was against Harvard. Other minor conferences have similarly dominant teams: Akron is 14-1 in the Mid-American Conference, Belmont is 14-2 in the Ohio Valley, Louisiana Tech is 16-0 in the Western Athletic Conference, and Middle Tennessee is 19-1 in the Sun Belt. Who knows how the Selection Committee can judge these teams.
Verdict: Other than Memphis, none of these teams can feel confident about anything without winning their conference tournaments.
3. Thank Heavens for RPI
These teams are so far out of the public spotlight that most fans have no idea they're even in the tournament discussion. The RPI is their saving grace. Boise State, for instance, has an RPI that ranks 44th nationally, right behind tournament locks Notre Dame and Wisconsin. The only good team Saint Mary's has beaten is Creighton, but the Gaels have the 40th-best RPI. La Salle ranks 36th. Colorado is 30th. Are these virtually-unknown teams worthy, or are they RPI creations?
Verdict: Colorado should be fine with its wins against the top of the Pac-12 and Boise State benefits from playing in the strong Mountain West. La Salle and Saint Mary's probably need to open more eyes in their conference tournaments.
4. Decent Record in a Major Conference (Probably the SEC)
And this is where most bubble cases fall. Look no further than Iowa. If the Big Ten is such a strong league, then should the Hawkeyes' 8-9 conference record be good enough for a tournament berth? They've also beaten Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, with an RPI that ranks 53rd (although their nonconference schedule was pathetic). Iowa State in the Big 12 and Providence in the Big East have similar profiles. But most of these cases can be found in the SEC, which is so weak at the bottom that no fewer than four teams have built up deceptively-strong conference records: Kentucky (11-5), Ole Miss (11-6), Alabama (11-6), and Tennessee (10-7). Good luck separating those teams from each other.
Verdict: Based on the eye test alone, Iowa State is the best team in this group, while the rest of them have no right to participate in March Madness. But given the inherent chaos in conference tournaments, the SEC will probably get one or two of its bubble teams into the field, with Kentucky sitting as the most likely of the four.
1. High Peaks, Lower Valleys
What should the Selection Committee value more -- the ability to get great wins, or the ability to avoid bad losses? The answer to that question will decide the fate of the teams in this category, all of which have proven they can hang with the elite, but also fail spectacularly against weaker opponents. The poster child here is Villanova. The Wildcats beat Louisville and Syracuse in the same week in January, and have also beaten Georgetown, Connecticut, and Marquette. But the losses are ugly: Columbia, Alabama, Seton Hall, and Providence (twice). Temple is another example, having beaten Syracuse, fellow bubble-dweller Villanova, and Saint Louis, but also losing to Canisius and four inferior teams within the Atlantic 10, including last-place Duquesne. Virginia has a strange case too: a nonconference win at Wisconsin and ACC wins over Duke, N.C. State, and North Carolina are all very impressive, until you see each of their seven stunning losses (George Mason, Delaware, Old Dominion, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Boston College).
Verdict: All three pass the eye test, but all three need to avoid yet another bad loss in their conference tournaments. Based on their collective track records ... that's not exactly a given.
2. Dominant Season in a Minor Conference
Not all bubble teams have bad losses. Some actually have gaudy records. But they were achieved in small conferences, so we don't have any idea how good they really are. Memphis isn't even on the bubble, yet serves as the best example here -- the Tigers entered the national polls last week and are considered a tournament lock thanks to a 15-0 record in Conference USA. Here's the thing, though: their best nonconference win was against Harvard. Other minor conferences have similarly dominant teams: Akron is 14-1 in the Mid-American Conference, Belmont is 14-2 in the Ohio Valley, Louisiana Tech is 16-0 in the Western Athletic Conference, and Middle Tennessee is 19-1 in the Sun Belt. Who knows how the Selection Committee can judge these teams.
Verdict: Other than Memphis, none of these teams can feel confident about anything without winning their conference tournaments.
3. Thank Heavens for RPI
These teams are so far out of the public spotlight that most fans have no idea they're even in the tournament discussion. The RPI is their saving grace. Boise State, for instance, has an RPI that ranks 44th nationally, right behind tournament locks Notre Dame and Wisconsin. The only good team Saint Mary's has beaten is Creighton, but the Gaels have the 40th-best RPI. La Salle ranks 36th. Colorado is 30th. Are these virtually-unknown teams worthy, or are they RPI creations?
Verdict: Colorado should be fine with its wins against the top of the Pac-12 and Boise State benefits from playing in the strong Mountain West. La Salle and Saint Mary's probably need to open more eyes in their conference tournaments.
4. Decent Record in a Major Conference (Probably the SEC)
And this is where most bubble cases fall. Look no further than Iowa. If the Big Ten is such a strong league, then should the Hawkeyes' 8-9 conference record be good enough for a tournament berth? They've also beaten Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, with an RPI that ranks 53rd (although their nonconference schedule was pathetic). Iowa State in the Big 12 and Providence in the Big East have similar profiles. But most of these cases can be found in the SEC, which is so weak at the bottom that no fewer than four teams have built up deceptively-strong conference records: Kentucky (11-5), Ole Miss (11-6), Alabama (11-6), and Tennessee (10-7). Good luck separating those teams from each other.
Verdict: Based on the eye test alone, Iowa State is the best team in this group, while the rest of them have no right to participate in March Madness. But given the inherent chaos in conference tournaments, the SEC will probably get one or two of its bubble teams into the field, with Kentucky sitting as the most likely of the four.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Five Weekend Bubble Games of Note
Believe it or not, Selection Sunday is only three weeks away, and chances for borderline tournament teams to improve their resumés are quickly running out. While this weekend features a few marquee matchups like Georgetown-Syracuse and Michigan State-Ohio State, it also brings us five critical games between bubble teams on the edge of tournament consideration.
N.C. STATE at NORTH CAROLINA
If the tournament began tomorrow, would North Carolina be in the field? It could go either way. The Tar Heels only have one win over a likely NCAA Tournament team, UNLV, and that was back in 2012. They've only got two more chances for statement wins before the ACC Tournament, and this is one of them. Fortunately, their timing is pretty good, because a new four-guard lineup has them playing their best basketball of the season. And what about N.C. State? If the Wolfpack hadn't opened the season as the much-hyped ACC favorite, would they be on the bubble too? Beating Duke and North Carolina was nice, but Connecticut is their only other notable victory and they're 2-4 on the road. Sweeping the Tar Heels would go a long way towards making sure the Wolfpack aren't surprised by a lower-than-expected seed on Selection Sunday. I'd still take UNC in this one, though.
BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA
The Big 12 has quietly been a bit of an unpredictable mess this year. Baylor, just a year after being a #3-seed, has already lost ten games, including five of seven. Oklahoma beat Kansas when the Jayhawks were in their funk but didn't do enough in their nonconference schedule to be considered a safe bet for the tournament yet. These two teams, along with Iowa State, comprise the Big 12 bubble, and it looks like only two of the three will win an at-large bid. Oklahoma should win this game, which would make them 2-0 against the Bears this season -- therefore giving them a crucial unspoken tiebreaker over Baylor for the Selection Committee's purposes.
MISSOURI at KENTUCKY
Kentucky's season will be decided in this game. Since losing Nerlens Noel for the season, the Wildcats were embarrassed at Tennessee and squeaked past Vanderbilt at home. Not exactly inspiring. They need to prove they're still a tournament team without Noel, and there just aren't many opportunities to do that in this pathetic SEC. Their only other shot comes against Florida and there's little chance of an upset there. It's Beat Missouri Or Bust. And it's not like this game is meaningless for Mizzou. The Tigers beat Florida last week, virtually securing their tournament bid, but they're a meager 1-6 in road games. Perhaps no other team has such a huge disparity between how well they play at home and how bad they look on the road, except maybe the regular-season version of the Baltimore Ravens. A win at Rupp Arena, even against this so-so Kentucky squad, would really help their image. I'd take Missouri here ... even the Ravens figured it out eventually.
#17 MARQUETTE at VILLANOVA
Marquette is a lock for the tournament; Villanova has one of the most interesting cases out there. The Wildcats are one of those teams with multiple personalities -- they beat Syracuse and Louisville in back-to-back games, but they've lost to, among others, Providence (twice!), Alabama (from the terrible, awful SEC!), and Columbia (the Ivy League one! At home!). Inconsistency, playing to the level of the competition -- who knows what it is. It's bizarre. Marquette has been really impressive this year, so if the pattern holds, Villanova will probably win. Logically, then, I'll pick Marquette.
CREIGHTON at SAINT MARY'S
Saint Mary's needs this win more than any other team in the nation needs a win this weekend, including Kentucky. The Gaels have a nice 23-5 record but don't have a single eye-opening victory on their resumé. Using the eye test, they're probably a tournament-caliber team, like they were last year. There's just nothing to point to on their schedule that proves it. And they've already lost both of their games to Gonzaga, so unless they run the table in the conference tournament, this is their last shot to impress the Selection Committee. They're not making the tournament without a win here, and I think they'll get it. Desperation wins out.
N.C. STATE at NORTH CAROLINA
If the tournament began tomorrow, would North Carolina be in the field? It could go either way. The Tar Heels only have one win over a likely NCAA Tournament team, UNLV, and that was back in 2012. They've only got two more chances for statement wins before the ACC Tournament, and this is one of them. Fortunately, their timing is pretty good, because a new four-guard lineup has them playing their best basketball of the season. And what about N.C. State? If the Wolfpack hadn't opened the season as the much-hyped ACC favorite, would they be on the bubble too? Beating Duke and North Carolina was nice, but Connecticut is their only other notable victory and they're 2-4 on the road. Sweeping the Tar Heels would go a long way towards making sure the Wolfpack aren't surprised by a lower-than-expected seed on Selection Sunday. I'd still take UNC in this one, though.
BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA
The Big 12 has quietly been a bit of an unpredictable mess this year. Baylor, just a year after being a #3-seed, has already lost ten games, including five of seven. Oklahoma beat Kansas when the Jayhawks were in their funk but didn't do enough in their nonconference schedule to be considered a safe bet for the tournament yet. These two teams, along with Iowa State, comprise the Big 12 bubble, and it looks like only two of the three will win an at-large bid. Oklahoma should win this game, which would make them 2-0 against the Bears this season -- therefore giving them a crucial unspoken tiebreaker over Baylor for the Selection Committee's purposes.
MISSOURI at KENTUCKY
Kentucky's season will be decided in this game. Since losing Nerlens Noel for the season, the Wildcats were embarrassed at Tennessee and squeaked past Vanderbilt at home. Not exactly inspiring. They need to prove they're still a tournament team without Noel, and there just aren't many opportunities to do that in this pathetic SEC. Their only other shot comes against Florida and there's little chance of an upset there. It's Beat Missouri Or Bust. And it's not like this game is meaningless for Mizzou. The Tigers beat Florida last week, virtually securing their tournament bid, but they're a meager 1-6 in road games. Perhaps no other team has such a huge disparity between how well they play at home and how bad they look on the road, except maybe the regular-season version of the Baltimore Ravens. A win at Rupp Arena, even against this so-so Kentucky squad, would really help their image. I'd take Missouri here ... even the Ravens figured it out eventually.
#17 MARQUETTE at VILLANOVA
Marquette is a lock for the tournament; Villanova has one of the most interesting cases out there. The Wildcats are one of those teams with multiple personalities -- they beat Syracuse and Louisville in back-to-back games, but they've lost to, among others, Providence (twice!), Alabama (from the terrible, awful SEC!), and Columbia (the Ivy League one! At home!). Inconsistency, playing to the level of the competition -- who knows what it is. It's bizarre. Marquette has been really impressive this year, so if the pattern holds, Villanova will probably win. Logically, then, I'll pick Marquette.
CREIGHTON at SAINT MARY'S
Saint Mary's needs this win more than any other team in the nation needs a win this weekend, including Kentucky. The Gaels have a nice 23-5 record but don't have a single eye-opening victory on their resumé. Using the eye test, they're probably a tournament-caliber team, like they were last year. There's just nothing to point to on their schedule that proves it. And they've already lost both of their games to Gonzaga, so unless they run the table in the conference tournament, this is their last shot to impress the Selection Committee. They're not making the tournament without a win here, and I think they'll get it. Desperation wins out.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Selection Sunday: First Reactions
Some thoughts on the much-anticipated brackets.
1. The Selection Committee did a great job. The #1 and #2 seeds were very fair, and there aren't very many egregious mistakes. The matchups for the play-in games are excellent. Only Florida (as a 7-seed) sticks out as a strange seeding decision. The only choice that will really raise some eyebrows was...
2. Iona over Drexel. The Gaels and their questionable at-large profile made the tournament as a 14-seed in a play-in game, while Drexel was the only bubble team left out of the field that has a legitimate gripe. Neither won their conference tournament, but Drexel did get to the finals. And the Dragons finished the season on an impressive winning streak. The difference was nonconference strength of schedule--Iona's was good, and Drexel's was pretty miserable. That's the Selection Committee sending a message.
3. The Committee was right in leaving out Seton Hall, Mississippi State, and Washington. All three stumbled down the stretch, and none of them looked like tournament teams consistently enough to warrant inclusion in the field. Leaving out Washington was particuarly impressive--it's the first time the regular season winner of a Big Six conference will miss out on a bid. Good for the Committee, because the Huskies didn't deserve one after their quarterfinal loss to Oregon State.
4. The Midwest Region's geography is intriguing. North Carolina is the #1 seed, but since Kentucky will play in Atlanta, the Tar Heels will be shipped out to St. Louis for the Sweet Sixteen. That's dangerous because their 2-seed in the region is...Kansas. The Jayhawks have a tricky road to the Elite Eight (Saint Mary's in particular could be dangerous) but if they get there, they'd have a geographic advantage in a potential game with UNC.
5. The South Region is stacked. Forget the fact that the region has the #1 overall seed in Kentucky, plus the Duke Blue Devils. The 3-seed is Baylor, which once ranked as high as #3 in the country. The 4-seed is Indiana, and we already know the Hoosiers can beat just about anyone. The 5-seed is Wichita State, perhaps the best mid-major in the country, and the 6-seed is UNLV, one of the country's most talented teams. Throw in UConn as a 9-seed, and the VCU Rams as a 12-seed, and whoever emerges from this bracket will have earned it.
6. Good luck, Michigan State. The Spartans got the last #1 seed, which was good. But their road to the Final Four is treacherous to say the least. The potential Round of 32 matchup with 8-seed Memphis is scary. The 4- and 5- seeds are Big East champ Louisville and Mountain West champ New Mexico. And the other side of the bracket has the Killer M's: Missouri, Marquette, and Murray State.
7. Dangerous double-digit seeds are everywhere. As a 10-seed, West Virginia and Kevin Jones could cause Ohio State problems if they beat Gonzaga. N.C. State, an 11-seed, almost beat North Carolina yesterday. South Dakota State and Belmont aren't pushover 14-seeds. And who would want to face 12th-seeded VCU?
8. Tough draw for the West Coast Conference. Both Saint Mary's and Gonzaga are excellent basketball teams capable of winning multiple games, but both got 7-seeds. That means the Gaels have to beat Purdue just to get the chance to face Kansas, and Gonzaga has to go through West Virginia to face Ohio State. And BYU was one of the last teams in the field, stuck in a First Four play-in game as a 14-seed. Compared to where the Mountain West teams were seeded (a 5-seed and two 6's), the WCC seems undervalued and its teams caught tough breaks this year.
1. The Selection Committee did a great job. The #1 and #2 seeds were very fair, and there aren't very many egregious mistakes. The matchups for the play-in games are excellent. Only Florida (as a 7-seed) sticks out as a strange seeding decision. The only choice that will really raise some eyebrows was...
2. Iona over Drexel. The Gaels and their questionable at-large profile made the tournament as a 14-seed in a play-in game, while Drexel was the only bubble team left out of the field that has a legitimate gripe. Neither won their conference tournament, but Drexel did get to the finals. And the Dragons finished the season on an impressive winning streak. The difference was nonconference strength of schedule--Iona's was good, and Drexel's was pretty miserable. That's the Selection Committee sending a message.
3. The Committee was right in leaving out Seton Hall, Mississippi State, and Washington. All three stumbled down the stretch, and none of them looked like tournament teams consistently enough to warrant inclusion in the field. Leaving out Washington was particuarly impressive--it's the first time the regular season winner of a Big Six conference will miss out on a bid. Good for the Committee, because the Huskies didn't deserve one after their quarterfinal loss to Oregon State.
4. The Midwest Region's geography is intriguing. North Carolina is the #1 seed, but since Kentucky will play in Atlanta, the Tar Heels will be shipped out to St. Louis for the Sweet Sixteen. That's dangerous because their 2-seed in the region is...Kansas. The Jayhawks have a tricky road to the Elite Eight (Saint Mary's in particular could be dangerous) but if they get there, they'd have a geographic advantage in a potential game with UNC.
5. The South Region is stacked. Forget the fact that the region has the #1 overall seed in Kentucky, plus the Duke Blue Devils. The 3-seed is Baylor, which once ranked as high as #3 in the country. The 4-seed is Indiana, and we already know the Hoosiers can beat just about anyone. The 5-seed is Wichita State, perhaps the best mid-major in the country, and the 6-seed is UNLV, one of the country's most talented teams. Throw in UConn as a 9-seed, and the VCU Rams as a 12-seed, and whoever emerges from this bracket will have earned it.
6. Good luck, Michigan State. The Spartans got the last #1 seed, which was good. But their road to the Final Four is treacherous to say the least. The potential Round of 32 matchup with 8-seed Memphis is scary. The 4- and 5- seeds are Big East champ Louisville and Mountain West champ New Mexico. And the other side of the bracket has the Killer M's: Missouri, Marquette, and Murray State.
7. Dangerous double-digit seeds are everywhere. As a 10-seed, West Virginia and Kevin Jones could cause Ohio State problems if they beat Gonzaga. N.C. State, an 11-seed, almost beat North Carolina yesterday. South Dakota State and Belmont aren't pushover 14-seeds. And who would want to face 12th-seeded VCU?
8. Tough draw for the West Coast Conference. Both Saint Mary's and Gonzaga are excellent basketball teams capable of winning multiple games, but both got 7-seeds. That means the Gaels have to beat Purdue just to get the chance to face Kansas, and Gonzaga has to go through West Virginia to face Ohio State. And BYU was one of the last teams in the field, stuck in a First Four play-in game as a 14-seed. Compared to where the Mountain West teams were seeded (a 5-seed and two 6's), the WCC seems undervalued and its teams caught tough breaks this year.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Blind Résumés
Selection Sunday is closing fast, and most team's at-large profiles are set, pending some conference tournament results. And to make objective decisions about the fates of bubble teams, the body of work is all that matters. Which of these teams deserves a spot in the field of 68, and which are NIT-bound?
Team A
Record: 21-10, 14-4 and first-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 69
Strength of Schedule: 87
Notable wins: Arizona (twice), Oregon
Notable losses: South Dakota State
Conference Tourney: 0-1 (quarterfinals exit)
Rundown: The average computer numbers aren't helped by a lack of quality wins. This team played some difficult nonconference games, but didn't win any--its best out-of-conference win might be Georgia State. The first-round exit from the conference tournament to the 8th-place team is ugly. The only good part of this profile is the first-place finish.
Team A's Identity: Washington. It doesn't look like Huskies really deserve a bid, but they might get one anyway--just because it would be hard to leave out the Pac-12 regular season champ.
Team B
Record: 20-14, 12-6 and sixth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 47
Strength of Schedule: 29
Notable wins: Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Louisville
Notable losses: VCU, Old Dominion, Penn State, Auburn
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (quarterfinals exit)
Rundown: There aren't many quality wins, and there's no lack of questionable losses. But the computer numbers are good, and Team B is playing its best basketball at the right time.
Team B's Identity: South Florida. Right on the bubble. The fact that their two best wins were against the two teams now playing in the Big East championship doesn't hurt. The Bulls pass the eye test, but there's a scenario in which the Selection Committee omits them.
Team C
Record: 20-12, 9-9 and sixth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 43
Strength of Schedule: 17
Notable wins: Temple, Iowa State (twice), Kansas State
Notable losses: Oregon State, N.C. State
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (semifinals exit)
Rundown: Like South Florida, Team C has good computer numbers but only a handful of quality wins. The biggest difference? Team C only has the one bad loss, to Oregon State.
Team C's Identity: Texas. Right on the bubble. The quarterfinal victory over Iowa State was critical, though, and you can't fault them for losing to Missouri in the semis. Given the general weakness of the bubble, this is one of the stronger bodies of work.
Team D
Record: 18-13, 8-10 and seventh-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 52
Strength of Schedule: 8
Notable wins: Seton Hall, Michigan State
Notable losses: Minnesota (twice)
Conference Tourney: 0-1 (first-round exit)
Rundown: The excellent computer numbers aren't backed up by Team D's 1-10 record against the RPI top 50. There wasn't anything great in nonconference play, either. Its claim to fame is no bad losses, and one win over Michigan State. That doesn't scream 'tournament team.'
Team D's Identity: Northwestern. By all rights, the school probably shouldn't be in the field of 68.
Team E
Record: 19-11, 9-7 and fourth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 48
Strength of Schedule: 59
Notable wins: Duke, Florida State
Notable losses: Ole Miss, N.C. State (twice)
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (quarterfinals exit)
Rundown: Like many bubble teams, there's nothing to point at in the nonconference schedule. Team E is living off two big wins, and those two losses to another bubble team hurt.
Team E's Identity: Miami. The Hurricanes will likely miss the tournament after failing to beat Florida State in the ACC quarterfinals.
Team F
Record: 27-6, 16-2 and first-place in a non-Big Six conference
RPI: 64
Strength of Schedule: 247
Notable wins: VCU, Cleveland State
Notable losses: Norfolk State, Georgia State, Delaware
Conference Tourney: 2-1 (lost in finals)
Rundown: A mid-major that failed to win its conference tournament despite an extended stretch of winning. The strength of schedule is obviously hurt by the conference.
Team F's Identity: Drexel. The Dragons are in a similar situation to what VCU experienced last year. It will come down to whether the Selection Committee prefers a ninth or tenth from the Big East or a second team from a smaller league.
Team G
Record: 20-12, 8-10 and ninth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 62
Strength of Schedule: 56
Notable wins: Dayton, West Virginia, Connecticut, Georgetown
Notable losses: Northwestern, South Florida, Villanova, Rutgers, DePaul
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (lost in second round)
Rundown: Everything is very average. The 11-1 nonconference record is misleading. The good wins are accompanied by some awful losses. Average, average, average.
Team G's Identity: Seton Hall. In any other year, the Pirates wouldn't have a prayer. This year, they might.
Team H
Record: 21-11, 8-8 and sixth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 71
Strength of Schedule: 81
Notable wins: Arizona, West Virginia, Detroit, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama
Notable losses: Akron, Arkansas, Mississippi, LSU, Auburn, Georgia (twice)
Conference Tourney: 0-1 (first-round exit)
Rundown: The wins are mostly good, but the losses are really bad. The computer numbers are very unflattering. And the nonconference strength of schedule was awful.
Team H's Identity: Mississippi State. Are they a tourney team? It seemed like it for a long time, but based on the numbers, perhaps not.
Team I
Record: 21-11, 9-7 and fourth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 59
Strength of Schedule: 31
Notable wins: Texas, Miami (twice), Virginia
Notable losses: Georgia Tech, Clemson
Conference Tourney: 2-0 (will play in semifinals)
Rundown: Team H hasn't beaten anyone, except for fellow bubble teams. It played Vanderbilt, Indiana, and Syracuse during nonconference play, but lost all three.
Team I's Identity: N.C. State. Talented, but iffy results. Beating Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals was huge. The Wolfpack's chances are climbing.
Team J
Record: 20-10, 8-6, fourth-place in a non-Big Six conference
RPI: 20
Strength of Schedule: 7
Notable wins: Colorado, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico
Notable losses: Northern Iowa, Stanford, 1-5 on the road in conference play
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (semifinals exit)
Rundown: The road results are shaky and there aren't any nonconference wins to speak of, but the computer numbers are the best of any team on this list. Three wins against the Mountain West elite are impressive, too.
Team J's Identity: Colorado State. Based on this, the Rams look pretty good for a bid.
Team K
Record: 19-11, 10-6 and third-place in a non-Big Six conference
RPI: 55
Strength of Schedule: 52
Notable wins: Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati, Dayton (twice), Saint Joseph's
Notable losses: Oral Roberts, Long Beach State, Hawaii
Conference Tourney: 1-0 (will play in semifinals)
Rundown: Team K's best wins came months ago; it doesn't have an impressive win since December. Does treading water for half a season earn you an at-large bid?
Team K's Identity: Xavier. The Musketeers aren't anything special anymore. But they may have done enough earlier to justify a bid. Two more wins in the wide-open A-10 tournament, though, and Xavier can just lock up an auto-bid.
Right now, Joe Lunardi at ESPN.com has eight of these teams in the tournament. He omits Miami, Northwestern, and Drexel, which is very fair, though one can argue that Drexel deserves entry over a Mississippi State or a Washington. The number of bids could shrink depending on what happens in some conference tournaments (especially the Atlantic 10). And we haven't even considered teams like Oral Roberts or Marshall or Iona that could sneak in on Sunday. There's a lot of moving pieces heading into the final day before the fates of these hopeful squads are determined.
Team A
Record: 21-10, 14-4 and first-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 69
Strength of Schedule: 87
Notable wins: Arizona (twice), Oregon
Notable losses: South Dakota State
Conference Tourney: 0-1 (quarterfinals exit)
Rundown: The average computer numbers aren't helped by a lack of quality wins. This team played some difficult nonconference games, but didn't win any--its best out-of-conference win might be Georgia State. The first-round exit from the conference tournament to the 8th-place team is ugly. The only good part of this profile is the first-place finish.
Team A's Identity: Washington. It doesn't look like Huskies really deserve a bid, but they might get one anyway--just because it would be hard to leave out the Pac-12 regular season champ.
Team B
Record: 20-14, 12-6 and sixth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 47
Strength of Schedule: 29
Notable wins: Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Louisville
Notable losses: VCU, Old Dominion, Penn State, Auburn
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (quarterfinals exit)
Rundown: There aren't many quality wins, and there's no lack of questionable losses. But the computer numbers are good, and Team B is playing its best basketball at the right time.
Team B's Identity: South Florida. Right on the bubble. The fact that their two best wins were against the two teams now playing in the Big East championship doesn't hurt. The Bulls pass the eye test, but there's a scenario in which the Selection Committee omits them.
Team C
Record: 20-12, 9-9 and sixth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 43
Strength of Schedule: 17
Notable wins: Temple, Iowa State (twice), Kansas State
Notable losses: Oregon State, N.C. State
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (semifinals exit)
Rundown: Like South Florida, Team C has good computer numbers but only a handful of quality wins. The biggest difference? Team C only has the one bad loss, to Oregon State.
Team C's Identity: Texas. Right on the bubble. The quarterfinal victory over Iowa State was critical, though, and you can't fault them for losing to Missouri in the semis. Given the general weakness of the bubble, this is one of the stronger bodies of work.
Team D
Record: 18-13, 8-10 and seventh-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 52
Strength of Schedule: 8
Notable wins: Seton Hall, Michigan State
Notable losses: Minnesota (twice)
Conference Tourney: 0-1 (first-round exit)
Rundown: The excellent computer numbers aren't backed up by Team D's 1-10 record against the RPI top 50. There wasn't anything great in nonconference play, either. Its claim to fame is no bad losses, and one win over Michigan State. That doesn't scream 'tournament team.'
Team D's Identity: Northwestern. By all rights, the school probably shouldn't be in the field of 68.
Team E
Record: 19-11, 9-7 and fourth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 48
Strength of Schedule: 59
Notable wins: Duke, Florida State
Notable losses: Ole Miss, N.C. State (twice)
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (quarterfinals exit)
Rundown: Like many bubble teams, there's nothing to point at in the nonconference schedule. Team E is living off two big wins, and those two losses to another bubble team hurt.
Team E's Identity: Miami. The Hurricanes will likely miss the tournament after failing to beat Florida State in the ACC quarterfinals.
Team F
Record: 27-6, 16-2 and first-place in a non-Big Six conference
RPI: 64
Strength of Schedule: 247
Notable wins: VCU, Cleveland State
Notable losses: Norfolk State, Georgia State, Delaware
Conference Tourney: 2-1 (lost in finals)
Rundown: A mid-major that failed to win its conference tournament despite an extended stretch of winning. The strength of schedule is obviously hurt by the conference.
Team F's Identity: Drexel. The Dragons are in a similar situation to what VCU experienced last year. It will come down to whether the Selection Committee prefers a ninth or tenth from the Big East or a second team from a smaller league.
Team G
Record: 20-12, 8-10 and ninth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 62
Strength of Schedule: 56
Notable wins: Dayton, West Virginia, Connecticut, Georgetown
Notable losses: Northwestern, South Florida, Villanova, Rutgers, DePaul
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (lost in second round)
Rundown: Everything is very average. The 11-1 nonconference record is misleading. The good wins are accompanied by some awful losses. Average, average, average.
Team G's Identity: Seton Hall. In any other year, the Pirates wouldn't have a prayer. This year, they might.
Team H
Record: 21-11, 8-8 and sixth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 71
Strength of Schedule: 81
Notable wins: Arizona, West Virginia, Detroit, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama
Notable losses: Akron, Arkansas, Mississippi, LSU, Auburn, Georgia (twice)
Conference Tourney: 0-1 (first-round exit)
Rundown: The wins are mostly good, but the losses are really bad. The computer numbers are very unflattering. And the nonconference strength of schedule was awful.
Team H's Identity: Mississippi State. Are they a tourney team? It seemed like it for a long time, but based on the numbers, perhaps not.
Team I
Record: 21-11, 9-7 and fourth-place in a Big Six conference
RPI: 59
Strength of Schedule: 31
Notable wins: Texas, Miami (twice), Virginia
Notable losses: Georgia Tech, Clemson
Conference Tourney: 2-0 (will play in semifinals)
Rundown: Team H hasn't beaten anyone, except for fellow bubble teams. It played Vanderbilt, Indiana, and Syracuse during nonconference play, but lost all three.
Team I's Identity: N.C. State. Talented, but iffy results. Beating Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals was huge. The Wolfpack's chances are climbing.
Team J
Record: 20-10, 8-6, fourth-place in a non-Big Six conference
RPI: 20
Strength of Schedule: 7
Notable wins: Colorado, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico
Notable losses: Northern Iowa, Stanford, 1-5 on the road in conference play
Conference Tourney: 1-1 (semifinals exit)
Rundown: The road results are shaky and there aren't any nonconference wins to speak of, but the computer numbers are the best of any team on this list. Three wins against the Mountain West elite are impressive, too.
Team J's Identity: Colorado State. Based on this, the Rams look pretty good for a bid.
Team K
Record: 19-11, 10-6 and third-place in a non-Big Six conference
RPI: 55
Strength of Schedule: 52
Notable wins: Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati, Dayton (twice), Saint Joseph's
Notable losses: Oral Roberts, Long Beach State, Hawaii
Conference Tourney: 1-0 (will play in semifinals)
Rundown: Team K's best wins came months ago; it doesn't have an impressive win since December. Does treading water for half a season earn you an at-large bid?
Team K's Identity: Xavier. The Musketeers aren't anything special anymore. But they may have done enough earlier to justify a bid. Two more wins in the wide-open A-10 tournament, though, and Xavier can just lock up an auto-bid.
Right now, Joe Lunardi at ESPN.com has eight of these teams in the tournament. He omits Miami, Northwestern, and Drexel, which is very fair, though one can argue that Drexel deserves entry over a Mississippi State or a Washington. The number of bids could shrink depending on what happens in some conference tournaments (especially the Atlantic 10). And we haven't even considered teams like Oral Roberts or Marshall or Iona that could sneak in on Sunday. There's a lot of moving pieces heading into the final day before the fates of these hopeful squads are determined.
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