With casual spring training games already underway, the sports betting site Bovada recently released its over/under figures for each MLB team's 2014 win total. The numbers set rough outlines for how all 30 teams are expected to perform during the upcoming season. All of the over/unders are listed here, along with a prediction of whether each team will exceed their projected win total or fall short of it.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2013 Wins: 81
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
Nobody does mediocrity like the Diamondbacks. For two years running, Arizona has finished with 81 wins and 81 losses. Their moves this offseason -- like trading for Mark Trumbo and assembling a rotation made up of exclusively #3 starters -- suggest a third straight .500 season could be on tap. When you give Bronson Arroyo an average annual salary of $11 million, why should you expect anything else? Under 80.5 wins.
Atlanta Braves
2013 Wins: 96
2014 Over/Under: 87.5
The Braves spent over a quarter of a billion dollars this winter, and their biggest free agent acquisition was Freddy Garcia. The rest of the money was spent on locking up the young players already on the roster -- Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons, and Julio Teheran. Brian McCann is a significant loss, but the Braves still have one of the most complete and well-rounded rosters in the league. Even with B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla clogging up payroll space. Over 87.5 wins.
Baltimore Orioles
2013 Wins: 85
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
For two straight years, the Orioles have overperformed relative to expectations (and the talent on the team). Why not make it three? Sure, it would be nice to have a major-league second baseman on the roster (the depth chart at the position currently reads: Weeks, Casilla, Flaherty, Schoop). But the free-agent additions of Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz filled much-needed holes. And it's hard to find a young core of position players that's more solid than Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Manny Machado. Over 80.5 wins.
Boston Red Sox
2013 Wins: 97
2014 Over/Under: 87.5
The defending champions did almost nothing to strengthen their team on the free agent market, and instead bid farewell to Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. But the Red Sox aren't being complacent; they're just confident in their in-house replacements. Xander Bogaerts could be a huge offensive upgrade at shortstop and Jackie Bradley Jr. will add excellent defense in center field. And A.J. Pierzynski is technically still capable of being a major-league catcher even if he remains a loathsome human being. A starting rotation fronted by Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy should be reliable, and it benefits even more from the loss of Ryan Dempster, a classic addition-by-subtraction move. The 2013 World Series champions are still very good, and there's some crack analysis. Over 87.5 wins.
Chicago Cubs
2013 Wins: 66
2014 Over/Under: 69.5
The good news for Cubs fans is that their system is full of promising young talent. The worse news is that none of it is on the major league roster yet. This is a bad team, and there's no reason to believe that it will be better than last year's 66-win club. Starlin Castro, once a bright spot, was absolutely useless in 2013. The starting outfield might consist of Junior Lake, Justin Ruggiano, and Nate Schierholtz. And the team's best pitcher, Jeff Samardzija, could be traded at any time. Bad baseball team. Under 69.5 wins.
Chicago White Sox
2013 Wins: 63
2014 Over/Under: 75.5
Setting the over/under for the 2014 White Sox at 75-and-a-half seems ridiculously optimistic. The offense should once again be dreadful, especially if Paul Konerko's last season (he plans on retiring) looks anything like his second-to-last season. Chris Sale is a freak of nature, but he's got absolutely no help on the pitching staff. The addition of intriguing Cuban slugger Jose Abreu is virtually the only reason to watch this team on the days when Sale isn't pitching. Under 75.5 wins.
Cincinnati Reds
2013 Wins: 90
2014 Over/Under: 84.5
It's hard to think of a team that had a more disastrous, frustrating offseason than the Reds. Mat Latos tore his meniscus on the first day of spring training; the pitching depth was already hurting with Bronson Arroyo's departure. Shin-Soo Choo, so valuable last year, is gone. He'll likely be replaced by the impossibly-fast Billy Hamilton, who could either revolutionize the game with his speed or never get on base enough to use it. All of Cincinnati's infielders not named Joey Votto are awful hitters, a well-known fact that the front office did nothing to address. In division led by the Cardinals, the Reds may pay for their inaction. Under 84.5 wins.
Cleveland Indians
2013 Wins: 92
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
It's almost impossible to have a quieter 90-win season than the Indians enjoyed last year. Unfortunately, it will be nearly impossible for them to repeat that success after the losses of Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir to free agency. The pitching simply isn't here -- any team that lists Shaun Marcum as its fifth starter on the depth chart has issues. But the offense should be strong enough to keep the Indians from regressing too much. They're loaded with above-average hitters at almost every spot on the diamond, along with the positional flexibility to exploit matchups. Carlos Santana's move to third base opens up a place behind the plate for Yan Gomes, who was a revelation in limited time last year. Cleveland should be better than .500. Over 80.5.
Colorado Rockies
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 76.5
Colorado has to be one of the most bizarre professional franchises in sports. The Rockies seemingly want to compete for the playoffs now -- they gave millions of dollars to Justin Morneau (??), refused to trade Michael Cuddyer, and brought in Brett Anderson. Yet they also traded away Dexter Fowler and did nothing notable in free agency beyond minor tinkering like Morneau and Drew Stubbs. The Coors Field effect on Rockies pitchers remains a massive issue that the front office isn't addressing. And it's tough to take the 'over' on a team that relies so heavily on two stars -- Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez -- who struggle to remain healthy. Under 76.5.
Detroit Tigers
2013 Wins: 93
2014 Over/Under: 89.5
Trading away Prince Fielder's onerous contract for Ian Kinsler was supposed to open things up financially for the Tigers. Strangely, that hasn't been the case, and the on-field product may suffer as a result. The team seems content to roll with Andy Dirks and Rajai Davis in left field rather than splurging on a free agent like Shin-Soo Choo. Unproven rookie Nick Castellanos appears to be the one and only option at third base. Dumping the eternally-underrated Doug Fister on the Nationals was a head-scratcher. If the Tigers do have budget concerns, then spending $10 million in annual salary on Joe Nathan might not have been the wisest move. This team didn't get better over the last few months. Under 89.5.
Houston Astros
2013 Wins: 51
2014 Over/Under: 62.5
In 2013, the Astros fielded one of the most miserable baseball teams in recent memory (51 wins!). They'll be better in 2014 just by default. But twelve wins better? There are maybe five or six major league players on this 25-man roster. Taking the over on the Astros feels like being on the wrong side of history. Under 62.5.
Kansas City Royals
2013 Wins: 86
2014 Over/Under: 82.5
By trading for Norichika Aoki and signing Omar Infante, the Royals suddenly have respectable major league players at almost every position. They might be a pitcher or two short of where they'd like to be, but they've also got an embarrassment of hard-throwing riches in their stacked bullpen to help cover for the starters. Leaps to stardom by Eric Hosmer or Salvador Perez could make this team the 2014 version of last year's Pirates. Over 82.5.
Los Angeles Angels
2013 Wins: 78
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
No team needed to improve its pitching staff more than the Angels (reminder: they gave a combined 58 starts to Jerome Williams, Joe Blanton, and Tommy Hanson last year). The front office had to add a proven starter or two, even if it meant overpaying Masahiro Tanaka, Matt Garza, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Instead, the Angels did nothing, and now their starting five includes Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards, and Hector Santiago. Wasting Mike Trout's prime years like this is downright criminal. Under 86.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2013 Wins: 92
2014 Over/Under: 92.5
Setting a team's over/under at 92-and-a-half is stunningly optimistic, and yet it might be warranted in the Dodgers' case. The team with more money than some small nations has 11 players making at least $10 million in 2014. Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is a nasty front four, with Paul Maholm and Josh Beckett jostling for the fifth slot. Even if Matt Kemp never gets healthy, the outfield is already full with Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Yasiel Puig. Second base could be a hole, but the Dodgers have proven their willingness to upgrade midseason, at any cost. The 'under' might be the smart play here, if only because 92.5 is such a high number, and guys like Crawford, Kemp, and Hanley Ramirez are injury concerns. Even so, that's not an indictment of this team; the Dodgers are probably the early favorites to win the World Series. Under 92.5 wins.
Miami Marlins
2013 Wins: 62
2014 Over/Under: 69.5
Like the Astros, this team is going to improve in 2014 just by default. In fact, there are some downright exciting names on this roster, especially in the outfield. A healthy season from Giancarlo Stanton could be worth a few extra wins and Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a bargain of an upgrade at catcher. Still ... Rafael Furcal is slated to be the starting second baseman. 70 wins might be too tall an order this soon. Under 69.5 wins.
Milwaukee Brewers
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 79.5
The 2013 Brewers gave 400 plate appearances to Yuniesky Betancourt (his OBP was .240). Improvement in 2014 is almost guaranteed, and not just because Betancourt is now in Japan. Ryan Braun is back from his suspension after only playing in 61 games last year. Matt Garza solidifies a suddenly-decent starting rotation. Khris (not Chris) Davis showed some exciting things at the plate last year. And Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, and Jonathan Lucroy have emerged as a strong up-the-middle core. A .500 season or better should be expected. Over 79.5 wins.
Minnesota Twins
2013 Wins: 66
2014 Over/Under: 70.5
The Twins are paying Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and Mike Pelfrey over $22 million in combined salary in 2014. Instead of taking that lump sum of money and competing for a top-of-the-line starter, they divided it up and got three of the most uninspiring pitchers on the market. The Twins, man. Even if the rotation is less leaky, the offense will once again be one of the worst in baseball. Looking forward to Joe Mauer not making the Hall of Fame because of the Twins' dysfunction. Under 70.5 wins.
New York Mets
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 74.5
The loss of Matt Harvey for the season is likely what's deflating the Mets' over/under here. But the team actually did a solid job grabbing bargains on the free agent market. Flanking Juan Lagares in center field with Curtis Granderson and Chris Young gives the Mets an elite defensive outfield without sacrificing power at the plate. Convincing Bartolo Colon to come to the National League was a savvy move, if only for the hilarity that will surely ensue when he's forced to bat and jog to first a couple times per start. Zack Wheeler could do a decent Harvey impersonation in his first full season. The Mets are headed in the right direction. Over 74.5 wins.
New York Yankees
2013 Wins: 85
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
The good news is that Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran all represent significant offensive upgrades over the dreck this team was sending to the plate last year. Those specific additions also show that the team is actively exploiting its stadium's short right-field porch. Still, half a billion dollars of spending later, the Opening Day lineup is projected to include both Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson. Throw in injury/age concerns surrounding Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira, and the Yankees' infield looks dangerously shaky. Masahiro Tanaka was the key pick-up who could tip the scales, but the over would be a much safer play if New York signed Stephen Drew. Over 86.5 wins.
Oakland Athletics
2013 Wins: 96
2014 Over/Under: 88.5
The team that's won the ultra-competitive AL West for two straight seasons is back again, with only minor changes. Going from Bartolo Colon and Grant Balfour to Scott Kazmir and Jim Johnson may be a small downgrade, but the potential for breakouts from Yoenis Cespedes and Sonny Gray offers upside. The A's have turned themselves into a perennial contender with a deep lineup, nasty bullpen, and young starting rotation. Over 88.5 wins.
Philadelphia Phillies
2013 Wins: 73
2014 Over/Under: 76.5
The Phillies probably aren't a playoff team. They might not even be a .500 team. But they can certainly win 77 games, especially with a rotation that includes Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and A.J. Burnett. Chase Utley is quietly still playing at an elite level. Ryan Howard doesn't have to return to superstar status to be a useful role player. The backlash against the Phillies appears to have gone a bit too far. Over 76.5 wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2013 Wins: 94
2014 Over/Under: 83.5
Pittsburgh is the prime candidate for significant regression in 2014, and this pessimistic over/under total reflects that fact. Although they won 94 games last year, they were closer in quality to an 88-win team according to their total runs scored and allowed. A.J. Burnett left and wasn't replaced. Francisco Liriano won't repeat the ridiculous numbers he posted during his comeback campaign. Any dropoff from the team's lone star player, reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen, would be difficult for this overachieving team to overcome. Under 83.5 wins.
San Diego Padres
2013 Wins: 76
2014 Over/Under: 78.5
It's hard to come up with a professional sports franchise more irrelevant than the Padres, who are never good enough to contend but never as entertainingly dysfunctional as a team like the Marlins. This year, at least, there's some hope for a Pirates-like run. Shortstop Everth Cabrera is a solid pick to lead the majors in stolen bases; Will Venable is coming off a 20-20 season; and a healthy Chase Headley could return to All-Star status. Reclamation projects like Josh Johnson and Ian Kennedy offer potential in Petco Park's pitching friendly environment. There's reason for optimism here. Over 78.5 wins.
San Francisco Giants
2013 Wins: 76
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
After an out-of-nowhere awful season in 2013, the Giants can expect a rebound in 2014. Angel Pagan and Ryan Vogelsong are back from injuries. The rotation should be better with a rebound year from the ultra-reliable Matt Cain as well as the addition of Tim Hudson. The mercurial Pablo Sandoval -- in a contract year -- might show up in shape and motivated. Brandon Belt has grown into an excellent first baseman. Knowing the Giants' history of reviving the careers of washed-up veterans, they'll probably get 30 homers out of Mike Morse, too. Over 86.5 wins.
Seattle Mariners
2013 Wins: 71
2014 Over/Under: 81.5
The Mariners fancy themselves contenders, and signing Robinson Cano was an excellent start down that path. But that acquisition alone wasn't enough to turn a 71-win club into a playoff team, or even a .500 team. The rest of the Mariners' moves were uninspiring -- like filling their glaring holes at "offense-friendly" positions with the oft-injured Corey Hart and failed prospect Logan Morrison. Plus, early injuries to Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker have punched holes in a flimsy pitching staff. This team desperately needs to sign Ervin Santana, or else a .500 season might be out of reach, let alone a playoff berth. Under 81.5 wins.
St. Louis Cardinals
2013 Wins: 97
2014 Over/Under: 90.5
The defending NL champions only had two glaring holes exposed during the World Series: shortstop and center field. In response, they brought in Jhonny Peralta to provide a huge offensive upgrade at short, and flipped David Freese to the Angels to get Peter Bourjos' great defense in center. Done and done. The rest of the roster's needs were filled internally thanks to the Cardinals' ridiculous depth. The presence of Kolten Wong at second base allows Matt Carpenter to replace Freese at third base. And Allen Craig can move into right field to replace Carlos Beltran, allowing Matt Adams to take over at first base. On the mound, the Cardinals' treasure chest of young arms is loaded thanks to the young foursome of Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, and Carlos Martinez. Out of all the teams in baseball, the Cardinals have the best chance of winning their division. Along with the Spurs and the Patriots, this might be the best-run franchise in sports. Over 90.5 wins.
Tampa Bay Rays
2013 Wins: 92
2014 Over/Under: 88.5
The typically-savvy Rays made some uncharacteristically questionable moves this offseason, like willingly trading for Heath Bell and re-signing James Loney to a three-year contract. But they also made some classic Rays moves that should pay solid dividends, like signing Grant Balfour on the cheap, bringing back the underrated David DeJesus, and trading for pitch-framing savant Ryan Hanigan. These supplements to the established core of talent in Tampa Bay should be enough to get this team back to the playoffs yet again. Over 88.5 wins.
Texas Rangers
2013 Wins: 91
2014 Over/Under: 86.5
If nothing else, the Rangers can be sure of one thing: they're going to score buckets and buckets of runs. Shin-Soo Choo getting on base in front of Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder is a formula that's going to work just fine. Fielder in particular could experience a career renaissance in Texas' hitter-friendly ballpark. Jurickson Profar taking over the second base job permanently is another key development to watch. This dynamic offense should be good enough to alleviate concerns about the starting rotation, which is a little thin after Yu Darvish. Over 86.5 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays
2013 Wins: 74
2014 Over/Under: 80.5
In the AL East, sitting tight during the offseason just doesn't work. While the Yankees, Orioles, and Rays all actively sought upgrades to compete with the Red Sox for the division title, the Blue Jays did almost nothing to strengthen a roster that fell apart in 2013. To some extent, Toronto is banking on internal improvement just based on health, because Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Brett Lawrie, Melky Cabrera, and Brandon Morrow were all hurt last year. That's a reasonable strategy, but even a fully healthy version of their rotation won't be good enough. Here's another team that really needs to sign Ervin Santana. Under 80.5 wins.
Washington Nationals
2013 Wins: 86
2014 Over/Under: 88.5
Universally pegged as the best team in baseball this time last year, the Nationals struggled with inconsistency and didn't make the playoffs. They should return to form in 2014. Corner outfielders Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth both spent time on the DL and appear to be fully healthy now. A loaded rotation that already boasted Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann now adds Doug Fister. Ian Desmond is suddenly one of the best shortstops in baseball. The only glaring issues here are Ryan Zimmerman's throwing and Adam LaRoche, two problems that could both be fixed simply by moving Zimmerman to first base permanently. Even if the Nats don't go that route, they'll compete with the Braves for the NL East title. Over 88.5 wins.
Showing posts with label Previews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Previews. Show all posts
Monday, March 3, 2014
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Five Players to Watch at the Champions Classic
Tuesday, November 12th could be the best night of college hoops until the first day of March Madness.
The relatively new Champions Classic event, featuring four of the top programs in the country, is quickly becoming an ideal way to announce the official beginning of the college basketball season. In 2013, the circumstances couldn't be more perfect. The four teams involved might be the four best teams in the country. One of the games -- Kentucky vs. Michigan State -- will feature the earliest-ever matchup between the #1 and #2 teams in the country, as well as an opportunity to scout Kentucky's newest collection of future first-round picks. The other game will pit perhaps the two best freshmen in the country, Andrew Wiggins of Kansas and Jabari Parker of Duke, against each other in an early battle for pole position in the 2014 NBA Draft. It's a near-perfect setup.
But as fun as it will be to see Wiggins and Parker in action, we won't actually learn much by their play. They're really good; we already know that. What the Champions Classic will tell us is which members of the less-heralded supporting casts are invaluable to their teams' success, and which of them are ready to announce their arrival on a national stage. Here are five such candidates to keep an eye on during Tuesday's action.
Naadir Tharpe. Kansas didn't really have a point guard last year and it cost them dearly in March. Back then, Naadir Tharpe was part of the problem, never able to grab the job and run with it. Thanks to a few graduations, Tharpe now has that role permanently. That makes him a crucial wild card on a national championship contender. He was suspended for Kansas' opener, so there's literally no indication of how he'll perform in his season debut on a national stage against Duke. He doesn't have to score, not with stud freshmen Andrew Wiggins and Wayne Selden playing off the ball. Just avoiding turnovers and running the fast break effectively would be great signs. If he doesn't step up, with only two unproven freshmen backing him up at the position, then a loss to Duke wouldn't be the worst of Kansas' long-term problems.
Rodney Hood. With so much attention focused upon Jabari Parker, it's easy to forget his partner in Duke's frontcourt. Rodney Hood did some nice things for a dysfunctional Mississippi State team his freshman year and judging from his Duke debut against Davidson, it's clear that the transfer had added to his skills. A six-foot-eight forward who can score from pretty much anywhere on the court, Hood will be a nightmare for opposing teams that also have to worry about Parker. It's his versatility that will turn the Blue Devils into one of the most devastating offensive teams in the country this season.
Joel Embiid. Another of Kansas' wild cards. It's not hard to imagine the Jayhawks making a Final Four run without Embiid playing a major role, since he's apparently very raw and they've got a number of other effective options in their frontcourt anyway. But if the seven-foot center from Cameroon plays up to his potential, then Kansas could be downright dominant. Embiid only played 11 minutes in Kansas' season opener and looked way too comfortable and smooth for a player who supposedly picked up basketball just a few years ago. In those 11 minutes, he showed off a couple of sweet offensive moves and took ten free throws (making seven of them!). He's a must-watch player whenever he's on the court.
Willie Cauley-Stein. The seven-foot center is something of a forgotten man in Kentucky's rotation, thanks to an uninspiring freshman season and a crowded frontcourt. And it's easy to overlook his contributions through two games because he's only scored 10 total points in 38 combined minutes. But his true impact has been eye-opening. In his first game, he was hyperactive -- blocking four shots, grabbing three steals, dishing out four assists, and running the floor so well that he elicited a few misplaced lob throws from his guards in transition. In his second game, he attacked the glass, pulling in eleven rebounds, five of them on the offensive end. It appears as though Cauley-Stein understands the role Kentucky needs him to play -- not scoring, but playing disruptive defense, rebounding, and throwing down dunks in transition.
Keith Appling. Maybe the most important player in the country. As the only team in the Champions Classic that's not adding a star freshman to its lineup, much of Michigan State's improvement must come from its returning players. That puts the onus on Appling. He's an excellent player but has struggled at times in the point guard role, contributing to some of the Spartans' ugly late possessions in close games last year. The good news: he's a senior now, surrounded by mostly the same supporting cast as last season, when the Spartans advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. We're told that continuity and big-game experience are invaluable assets in college basketball; Appling's performance against Kentucky's all-freshman backcourt should provide a good test for that theory.
The relatively new Champions Classic event, featuring four of the top programs in the country, is quickly becoming an ideal way to announce the official beginning of the college basketball season. In 2013, the circumstances couldn't be more perfect. The four teams involved might be the four best teams in the country. One of the games -- Kentucky vs. Michigan State -- will feature the earliest-ever matchup between the #1 and #2 teams in the country, as well as an opportunity to scout Kentucky's newest collection of future first-round picks. The other game will pit perhaps the two best freshmen in the country, Andrew Wiggins of Kansas and Jabari Parker of Duke, against each other in an early battle for pole position in the 2014 NBA Draft. It's a near-perfect setup.
But as fun as it will be to see Wiggins and Parker in action, we won't actually learn much by their play. They're really good; we already know that. What the Champions Classic will tell us is which members of the less-heralded supporting casts are invaluable to their teams' success, and which of them are ready to announce their arrival on a national stage. Here are five such candidates to keep an eye on during Tuesday's action.
Naadir Tharpe. Kansas didn't really have a point guard last year and it cost them dearly in March. Back then, Naadir Tharpe was part of the problem, never able to grab the job and run with it. Thanks to a few graduations, Tharpe now has that role permanently. That makes him a crucial wild card on a national championship contender. He was suspended for Kansas' opener, so there's literally no indication of how he'll perform in his season debut on a national stage against Duke. He doesn't have to score, not with stud freshmen Andrew Wiggins and Wayne Selden playing off the ball. Just avoiding turnovers and running the fast break effectively would be great signs. If he doesn't step up, with only two unproven freshmen backing him up at the position, then a loss to Duke wouldn't be the worst of Kansas' long-term problems.
Rodney Hood. With so much attention focused upon Jabari Parker, it's easy to forget his partner in Duke's frontcourt. Rodney Hood did some nice things for a dysfunctional Mississippi State team his freshman year and judging from his Duke debut against Davidson, it's clear that the transfer had added to his skills. A six-foot-eight forward who can score from pretty much anywhere on the court, Hood will be a nightmare for opposing teams that also have to worry about Parker. It's his versatility that will turn the Blue Devils into one of the most devastating offensive teams in the country this season.
Joel Embiid. Another of Kansas' wild cards. It's not hard to imagine the Jayhawks making a Final Four run without Embiid playing a major role, since he's apparently very raw and they've got a number of other effective options in their frontcourt anyway. But if the seven-foot center from Cameroon plays up to his potential, then Kansas could be downright dominant. Embiid only played 11 minutes in Kansas' season opener and looked way too comfortable and smooth for a player who supposedly picked up basketball just a few years ago. In those 11 minutes, he showed off a couple of sweet offensive moves and took ten free throws (making seven of them!). He's a must-watch player whenever he's on the court.
Willie Cauley-Stein. The seven-foot center is something of a forgotten man in Kentucky's rotation, thanks to an uninspiring freshman season and a crowded frontcourt. And it's easy to overlook his contributions through two games because he's only scored 10 total points in 38 combined minutes. But his true impact has been eye-opening. In his first game, he was hyperactive -- blocking four shots, grabbing three steals, dishing out four assists, and running the floor so well that he elicited a few misplaced lob throws from his guards in transition. In his second game, he attacked the glass, pulling in eleven rebounds, five of them on the offensive end. It appears as though Cauley-Stein understands the role Kentucky needs him to play -- not scoring, but playing disruptive defense, rebounding, and throwing down dunks in transition.
Keith Appling. Maybe the most important player in the country. As the only team in the Champions Classic that's not adding a star freshman to its lineup, much of Michigan State's improvement must come from its returning players. That puts the onus on Appling. He's an excellent player but has struggled at times in the point guard role, contributing to some of the Spartans' ugly late possessions in close games last year. The good news: he's a senior now, surrounded by mostly the same supporting cast as last season, when the Spartans advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. We're told that continuity and big-game experience are invaluable assets in college basketball; Appling's performance against Kentucky's all-freshman backcourt should provide a good test for that theory.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Mega NFL Preview: The NFC
NFC East: "Eeny, Meeny, Miny, Moe"
1. Dallas Cowboys
You might as well pick the final NFC East standings by drawing team names out of a hat. It's the most unpredictable division in football. The Cowboys are the first-place pick here, just because the coaching looks improved and the Tony Romo-to-Dez Bryant connection could be unstoppable. Romo actually threw for 4,903 yards and 28 touchdowns last year; if he cuts back on the turnovers, then this could be an elite offense. Miles Austin and DeMarco Murray staying somewhat healthy would be a huge boost.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Dez Bryant leads the NFL in touchdown catches.
2. Washington Redskins
On paper, the Redskins are probably better than the Cowboys. The problem is their schedule. They have to play the Packers and Broncos on the road (the Cowboys face them at home), and they also drew the 49ers and the Falcons (the Cowboys won't face either one). Plus, we just can't quantify the potential effect of Robert Griffin's knee surgery on his play. Until we see him in action, this entire offense is a question mark.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Alfred Morris leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
3. New York Giants
The Giants could very well end up having the best offense in this division. Eli Manning may enjoy a bounce-back season now that both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are on the field at the same time. David Wilson, who was electrifying at times during his rookie season, is about to become a star. But oof, this defense. Only the historically-bad Saints gave up more yards than the Giants last year. That's not going to cut it in a division with three other high-powered offenses.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: David Wilson becomes the breakout running back of 2013, accumulating 1,500 total yards and 12 touchdowns.
You might as well pick the final NFC East standings by drawing team names out of a hat. It's the most unpredictable division in football. The Cowboys are the first-place pick here, just because the coaching looks improved and the Tony Romo-to-Dez Bryant connection could be unstoppable. Romo actually threw for 4,903 yards and 28 touchdowns last year; if he cuts back on the turnovers, then this could be an elite offense. Miles Austin and DeMarco Murray staying somewhat healthy would be a huge boost.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Dez Bryant leads the NFL in touchdown catches.
2. Washington Redskins
On paper, the Redskins are probably better than the Cowboys. The problem is their schedule. They have to play the Packers and Broncos on the road (the Cowboys face them at home), and they also drew the 49ers and the Falcons (the Cowboys won't face either one). Plus, we just can't quantify the potential effect of Robert Griffin's knee surgery on his play. Until we see him in action, this entire offense is a question mark.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Alfred Morris leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
3. New York Giants
The Giants could very well end up having the best offense in this division. Eli Manning may enjoy a bounce-back season now that both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are on the field at the same time. David Wilson, who was electrifying at times during his rookie season, is about to become a star. But oof, this defense. Only the historically-bad Saints gave up more yards than the Giants last year. That's not going to cut it in a division with three other high-powered offenses.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: David Wilson becomes the breakout running back of 2013, accumulating 1,500 total yards and 12 touchdowns.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
Like the Buffalo Bills, the Eagles will be entertaining even if they don't win games. New head coach Chip Kelly wants to play faster than the rest of the league, and with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, and DeSean Jackson, he has the personnel to do just that. Alas, football is a two-way sport, and the Eagles' hideous defense will have to take the field at some point, too. In a division with Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Robert Griffin III, not being able to get stops will be Philadelphia's downfall. Plus, there's the ever-present threat of the annual Michael Vick injury. If/when he goes down, Kelly's offense will crumble.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing yardage.
NFC North: "Aaron Rodgers. Calvin Johnson. Adrian Peterson. Jay Cutler?"
1. Green Bay Packers
It feels like the Packers were somewhat disappointing last year. The running game was pathetic, their dismal offensive line allowed Aaron Rodgers to be sacked a league-leading 51 times, and ... they still went 11-5 and won the NFC North. A similarly successful season is on tap. Rookie Eddie Lacy, of Alabama Crimson Tide fame, is the running back this franchise desperately needs. Greg Jennings will be more than adequately replaced by the electrifying Randall Cobb, who could lead the league in receptions. This offense is once again balanced and menacing. With the NFL's best quarterback at the helm, a championship is within reach.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Eddie Lacy is the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
It feels like the Packers were somewhat disappointing last year. The running game was pathetic, their dismal offensive line allowed Aaron Rodgers to be sacked a league-leading 51 times, and ... they still went 11-5 and won the NFC North. A similarly successful season is on tap. Rookie Eddie Lacy, of Alabama Crimson Tide fame, is the running back this franchise desperately needs. Greg Jennings will be more than adequately replaced by the electrifying Randall Cobb, who could lead the league in receptions. This offense is once again balanced and menacing. With the NFL's best quarterback at the helm, a championship is within reach.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Eddie Lacy is the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
2. Chicago Bears
The defense can't possibly be as dominant as it was last year. The onus is on Jay Cutler to improve an offense that accumulated the 5th-fewest yards in the NFL last year. New head coach Marc Trestman should help Cutler maximize his supporting cast, from Matt Forte to impressive second-year wideout Alshon Jeffrey. What's working against the Bears is the cutthroat NFC playoff competition, especially for the wild card. There's a chance that a 9-7 (or even 10-6) record might not be good enough for a playoff spot.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Jay Cutler has his best season as the Bears' quarterback.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Jay Cutler has his best season as the Bears' quarterback.
3. Detroit Lions
There's a lot to like here. The defensive line could be dominant. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will combine for more touchdowns. The addition of Reggie Bush should revive a running game that has been extinct for a few years. But the weaknesses -- no secondary, no receiving threat opposite Johnson, and crippling immaturity -- are too glaring to ignore. This looks like a six- or seven-win team.
Over/Under 8 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Reggie Bush leads all running backs in receptions.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson doesn't play quarterback.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Matt Cassel makes multiple starts at quarterback over Christian Ponder.
NFC South: "What is This 'Defense' Of Which You Speak?"
1. Atlanta Falcons
Their first-place status is far more precarious than people might imagine. The prolific passing offense will be back, and Steven Jackson represents a big upgrade over Michael Turner on the ground. But anyone who watched last year's playoffs knows just how badly this defense was embarrassed by Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. The offensive line looks like a big problem, too. In a division with some good offenses, the Falcons can't keep relying on winning high-scoring shoot-outs every week. The outcomes of those games are too random. There's risk here.
Over/Under 10 Wins: Over (after all that negativity, still taking the over on 10 ... thought that number would be higher).
Bonus Prediction: Matt Ryan's yardage and touchdowns both decline from last year.
Bonus Prediction: Matt Ryan's yardage and touchdowns both decline from last year.
2. New Orleans Saints
Falcons at Saints, Week One. Saints at Falcons, Week 12. Those two games could be the highest-scoring and most-entertaining match-ups of the season. With Sean Payton back on the sidelines after a year-long suspension, and Jimmy Graham healthy, the Saints won't struggle to score gobs of points. But oh, this defense ... this defense surrendered over seven thousand yards last season, the most any team has ever given up. That's 440 yards per game. Oh, the Saints could still make the playoffs this season; even win the division. They're just going to have to average 45 points per game.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Over (flipped a coin, though).
Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees throws 50 touchdown passes.
Falcons at Saints, Week One. Saints at Falcons, Week 12. Those two games could be the highest-scoring and most-entertaining match-ups of the season. With Sean Payton back on the sidelines after a year-long suspension, and Jimmy Graham healthy, the Saints won't struggle to score gobs of points. But oh, this defense ... this defense surrendered over seven thousand yards last season, the most any team has ever given up. That's 440 yards per game. Oh, the Saints could still make the playoffs this season; even win the division. They're just going to have to average 45 points per game.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Over (flipped a coin, though).
Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees throws 50 touchdown passes.
3. Carolina Panthers
Not as bad as you think. Linebacker Luke Kuechly looked like a beast in the preseason and could be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Cam Newton was tremendous during the second half of last season. They went 3-1 against the Falcons and Saints. The offensive weapons around Newton still leave something to be desired, which is why they're listed third here, but at the very least they're becoming a thing that needs to be taken seriously.
Over/Under 7 Wins: Over (aiming for 8-8).
Bonus Prediction: Newton has more rushing yards and touchdowns than any running back on the team.
Not as bad as you think. Linebacker Luke Kuechly looked like a beast in the preseason and could be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Cam Newton was tremendous during the second half of last season. They went 3-1 against the Falcons and Saints. The offensive weapons around Newton still leave something to be desired, which is why they're listed third here, but at the very least they're becoming a thing that needs to be taken seriously.
Over/Under 7 Wins: Over (aiming for 8-8).
Bonus Prediction: Newton has more rushing yards and touchdowns than any running back on the team.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, Doug Martin had a tremendous rookie season, and Darrelle Revis is now on the roster, and Vincent Jackson covers up for a lot of bad throws. That's all nice. Picking the Buccaneers last in this division is merely a reflection of how little confidence one should have in quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman may have had the most uninspiring 4,000-yard season in quarterback history last year. He only completed 55% of his passes. He threw TWELVE interceptions in his final seven games. In a division where shoot-outs will be the norm, Freeman is a liability.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Freeman gets benched at some point in favor of backup rookie Mike Glennon (ouch).
Yes, Doug Martin had a tremendous rookie season, and Darrelle Revis is now on the roster, and Vincent Jackson covers up for a lot of bad throws. That's all nice. Picking the Buccaneers last in this division is merely a reflection of how little confidence one should have in quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman may have had the most uninspiring 4,000-yard season in quarterback history last year. He only completed 55% of his passes. He threw TWELVE interceptions in his final seven games. In a division where shoot-outs will be the norm, Freeman is a liability.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Freeman gets benched at some point in favor of backup rookie Mike Glennon (ouch).
NFC West: "Here Be Dragons"
1. Seattle Seahawks
You could argue that the Seahawks are the best team in football. You could also argue that the Seahawks aren't even the best team in their division. The difference between the two opinions is actually miniscule. That's what happens when you share some geography with the 49ers. Both teams are serious Super Bowl contenders regardless of which one wins this division. Seattle's roster looks like a perfectly-balanced masterpiece: a hyper-physical running game, relentless playmakers at every level of a ruthless defense, fierce home field advantage, and an emerging multi-dimensional quarterback. There's so much to like here.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: The Seahawks lead the NFL in point differential.
You could argue that the Seahawks are the best team in football. You could also argue that the Seahawks aren't even the best team in their division. The difference between the two opinions is actually miniscule. That's what happens when you share some geography with the 49ers. Both teams are serious Super Bowl contenders regardless of which one wins this division. Seattle's roster looks like a perfectly-balanced masterpiece: a hyper-physical running game, relentless playmakers at every level of a ruthless defense, fierce home field advantage, and an emerging multi-dimensional quarterback. There's so much to like here.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: The Seahawks lead the NFL in point differential.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Eerily similar to the Seahawks: an intensely physical team with a stifling defense, overpowering running game, and dual-threat quarterback. Their weakness is the same, too: the absence of an elite receiver. Both teams lost their #1 options to offseason injuries -- Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree. Now Colin Kaepernick has to make do with the painfully-slow Anquan Boldin and the painfully-inconsistent Vernon Davis. It doesn't particularly matter, though. This is nitpicking. You'll need to play virtually flawless football to beat the Niners this season.
Over/Under 11 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Rookie Quinton Patton evolves into the team's best receiver by season's end.
Eerily similar to the Seahawks: an intensely physical team with a stifling defense, overpowering running game, and dual-threat quarterback. Their weakness is the same, too: the absence of an elite receiver. Both teams lost their #1 options to offseason injuries -- Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree. Now Colin Kaepernick has to make do with the painfully-slow Anquan Boldin and the painfully-inconsistent Vernon Davis. It doesn't particularly matter, though. This is nitpicking. You'll need to play virtually flawless football to beat the Niners this season.
Over/Under 11 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Rookie Quinton Patton evolves into the team's best receiver by season's end.
3. St. Louis Rams
We still need to see growth from Sam Bradford, who has stagnated a bit in the two years since his solid rookie season. Losing trusted target Danny Amendola hurts in that regard. But otherwise, Bradford's supporting cast got much better. Chris Givens made a 50-plus-yard catch in five straight games last year. Lightning-quick rookie Tavon Austin was the first offensive skill player selected in the draft. The offensive line and defense have improved. Granted, a .500 record is a bit much to ask from a team that has to play Seattle and San Francisco four times. Yet this might be the best third-place team in football.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Daryl Richardson rushes for more yards than Steven Jackson had last year (1,042).
We still need to see growth from Sam Bradford, who has stagnated a bit in the two years since his solid rookie season. Losing trusted target Danny Amendola hurts in that regard. But otherwise, Bradford's supporting cast got much better. Chris Givens made a 50-plus-yard catch in five straight games last year. Lightning-quick rookie Tavon Austin was the first offensive skill player selected in the draft. The offensive line and defense have improved. Granted, a .500 record is a bit much to ask from a team that has to play Seattle and San Francisco four times. Yet this might be the best third-place team in football.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Daryl Richardson rushes for more yards than Steven Jackson had last year (1,042).
4. Arizona Cardinals
How good is this division? The Cardinals have an emerging defense, a quarterback who had four thousand yards passing last year, and one of the best receivers in the NFL ... and they're probably headed for last place. Like the Rams, though, they're light-years better than other bottom-of-the-barrel teams like the Raiders or Jaguars. Say what you want about an over-the-hill Carson Palmer: he's miles better than the trash Arizona had playing quarterback last year (Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer, if you were wondering). The Palmer-to-Larry Fitzgerald connection should raise this offense back towards league-average. The defense is already at that level, if not better. There's nothing particularly exciting about this roster, but it's better than people think. Six wins (while not exactly the loftiest goal) are attainable.
Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: No Arizona Cardinal reaches the 1,000-yard rushing plateau.
How good is this division? The Cardinals have an emerging defense, a quarterback who had four thousand yards passing last year, and one of the best receivers in the NFL ... and they're probably headed for last place. Like the Rams, though, they're light-years better than other bottom-of-the-barrel teams like the Raiders or Jaguars. Say what you want about an over-the-hill Carson Palmer: he's miles better than the trash Arizona had playing quarterback last year (Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer, if you were wondering). The Palmer-to-Larry Fitzgerald connection should raise this offense back towards league-average. The defense is already at that level, if not better. There's nothing particularly exciting about this roster, but it's better than people think. Six wins (while not exactly the loftiest goal) are attainable.
Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: No Arizona Cardinal reaches the 1,000-yard rushing plateau.
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Mega NFL Preview: The AFC
As you're probably aware, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in the midst of their most successful season in two decades. With a month left in the season, they're involved in a thrilling three-way death race in the NL Central. On Thursday, Pittsburgh entered play tied for first place in the division (they haven't made the playoffs since 1992). That night, the Pirates faced the Brewers at home, looking for a three-game sweep of the series. Their starting pitcher was rookie Gerrit Cole, the first overall pick in the 2011 Draft. The game drew an 8.3 TV rating.
Simultaneously, the NFL's Pittsburgh Steelers were playing their fourth preseason game, against the Carolina Panthers. Neither team started any of their key players in the meaningless contest. The three quarterbacks who saw time were Landry Jones, Derek Anderson, and Jimmy Clausen. That game's TV rating? 21.3, nearly triple that of the pennant-racing Pirates.
The NFL is a big freaking deal.
AFC East: "Brady Versus Boys"
1. New England Patriots
Wes Welker is in Denver, Danny Woodhead is in San Diego, Aaron Hernandez is in court, Brandon Lloyd is on unemployment, and Rob Gronkowski is in rehab. And the Patriots are still going to win this division by a handful of games. Tom Brady is just going to elevate a new supporting cast to stardom. Going from Welker to Danny Amendola in the slot is actually an upgrade on talent alone, and the only thing keeping him from a monster season (like 1,300 yards, 8 touchdowns) is his health. Shane Vereen is going to be a Darren Sproles-like mismatch out of the backfield. And maybe undrafted free agents Zach Sudfeld and Kenbrell Thompkins -- both generating healthy preseason buzz -- can hold down the fort until Gronkowski returns. The other quarterbacks in this division are Ryan Tannehill, E.J. Manuel, and Mark Sanchez. The Patriots will be juuuuust fine.
Over/Under 11 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Tom Brady wins the MVP Award.
2. Miami Dolphins
The 2013 Miami Dolphins are eerily reminiscent of the 2012 Miami Marlins: everyone's favorite "sleeper team" that threw a ton of money at free agents but ends up disappointing anyway. Ryan Tannehill needs to make huge strides for this team to go anywhere (he threw 12 TDs and 13 interceptions last year). Their questionable offensive line might not allow him to do so. And their schedule is incredibly tough: they face the Browns, Colts, Falcons, Saints, and Ravens before their Week 6 bye. The x-factor here is second-year running back Lamar Miller. The Dolphins were confident enough in his abilities to let Reggie Bush go in free agency and a breakout season is on tap. Still, this feels like a .500 team at best.
Over/Under 8 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Lamar Miller accumulates 1,500 total yards.
3. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are going to be one of those bad teams that's still fun to watch. Maybe not in Week One, when they're scheduled to start undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel at quarterback against the Patriots. But once duel-threat first-rounder E.J. Manuel gets healthy, Buffalo will be one of the fastest and most exciting offenses in the NFL. The centerpiece will be C.J. Spiller, who was one of only two running backs in 2012 (Adrian Peterson being the other) to average six yards per carry. He's one of the most elusive players in the NFL yet also ranked near the top of the league in stats like yards after contact and forced missed tackles. Yet even if Spiller has the beastly season he's poised to enjoy, this defense isn't stopping anybody, so it won't particularly matter.
Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: C.J. Spiller leads all NFL running backs in yards from scrimmage this season.
4. New York Jets
Fun fact: in his first two seasons, Mark Sanchez beat Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady in road playoff games. Not all fun facts have to make sense, you know.
Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Rex Ryan is NOT the first head coach fired this season.
AFC North: "Mediocrity Disguised as Parity"
1. Cincinnati Bengals
The 2013 NFL season is a big one for Andy Dalton. Armed with an excellent defense and some fantastic offensive weapons, the Bengals are ready for a significant run through the playoffs. They have to find out whether or not Dalton is the quarterback who can take them there. He threw for over 3,600 yards and 27 touchdowns last season, but faded in a big way down the stretch. Is he going to take the Matt Ryan Step Forward or the Mark Sanchez Step Back? The Bengals need to know the answer sooner rather than later.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Rookie Giovani Bernard takes over the starting running back job and leads all rookies in yardage.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Flukier championship team: 2007 New York Giants or 2012 Baltimore Ravens? Which leads to a better question: is Joe Flacco on the same career path as Eli Manning? Manning used that first Super Bowl as a springboard to jump into the ranks of the league's elite quarterbacks. The Ravens clearly think Flacco can do the same. It's certainly possible. Just keep in mind that Flacco has never thrown as many touchdowns as Andy Dalton threw last year (27). The Ravens are going to need him to take that next step, because the secondary players around him are as weak as they've ever been. Bottom line: the Ravens could finish in first place or last, and neither outcome would be particularly surprising. Nothing about the Ravens can be surprising anymore.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over. No ... under. No -- over.
Bonus Prediction: Flacco posts career highs in yardage, touchdowns, and interceptions.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
An ugly, ugly football team. And not even necessarily in a bad way. Just ugly. The offensive line is so bad that they'll probably run the ball at a three-yards-per-carry rate. So they'll have to throw. But the offensive line is so bad that there's no way Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy for 16 games. In a division this tight, those two or three games that Big Ben misses will be the difference between a playoff berth and third place.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: No Steelers running back reaches 1,000 yards on the ground.
4. Cleveland Browns
In each of the last 10 NFL seasons, at least one team has finished first in its division after finishing in last the year before. The Browns have the best chance of accomplishing that feat in the AFC (mostly because the Bills, Jaguars, and Chiefs ain't doing it). The defense is extremely underrated and second-year running back Trent Richardson is poised for a breakout season behind an elite offensive line. They also get to play the Vikings, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, and Jets. Their fate likely lies with the development of quarterback Brandon Weeden under accomplished offensive coordinator Norv Turner. The playoffs might not be in the cards for Cleveland this year. Things are looking up, though.
Over/Under 6 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: After he returns from his two-week suspension, second-year supplemental draft pick Josh Gordon will explode and become the breakout wide receiver of 2013.
AFC South: "50% Relevant"
1. Houston Texans
They're up here in first place by default. The defense will be strong again, and four of their six divisional games are near-automatic cakewalks. But that doesn't hide the fact that the Texans are the most boring good team in football. The offensive play-calling is infuriatingly conservative. Matt Schaub is Joe Flacco without the cannon arm. Arian Foster is aching after more than four hundred and fifty touches last season, including the playoffs. Andre Johnson is aging. The offensive line is declining. This is a very good regular season team that has little to no hope of beating Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in a playoff game.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Former rushing champion Arian Foster averages fewer than four yards per carry.
2. Indianapolis Colts
There are two directly opposing schools of thought on the 2013 Colts. Predicting their season is all about choosing which narrative your prefer.
Narrative A: The Colts improved from 2-14 in 2011 to 11-5 in 2012; teams that that kind of improbable leap in win-loss record historically always fall back to earth in the following season. They also benefited from a laughably-easy schedule, which won't be the case in 2013. Andrew Luck's 54% completion rate and 18 interceptions (plus many more that were dropped) are concerning. This team screams regression.
Narrative B: Andrew Luck is about to make the leap into stardom. With a more conservative offensive coordinator and better protection up front, Luck's completion and turnover rates will improve, leading to more sustained drives and more touchdowns. The supporting cast is a year older and continues to get better. Ahmad Bradshaw is a huge upgrade for the running game, which was non-existent last year. This team will maintain its 2012 success, and perhaps improve on it.
Like most things, the truth here probably lies somewhere in the middle.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Third receiver T.Y. Hilton will collect over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.
3. Tennessee Titans
The drop-off within this division from the Texans and Colts to the Titans and Jaguars is massive. It's difficult to envision the Titans making any noise this year, not with Jake Locker at quarterback. He's too inaccurate and turnover-prone for this offense to find any rhythm, and it's not like the defense can pick up the slack. It wouldn't be surprising if the Titans look to select a quarterback with their first-round pick next year.
Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Chris Johnson enjoys a comeback season, rushing for 1,500 yards behind a revamped offensive line.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Not as bad as you think. Don't get me wrong -- they're awful. Just more "4-12" awful than "2-14" awful. Maurice Jones-Drew is back and healthy in a contract year. Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon each had flashes of brilliance last year as play-making wideouts. They're bad enough to finish in last place, but maybe not bad enough to snag the first overall pick in next year's draft.
Over/Under 5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Blaine Gabbert won't be benched for performance reasons at any point in the season.
AFC West: "The Foregone Conclusion"
1. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have question marks all over their defense, no sure thing at running back, and a 37-year-old quarterback with multiple neck surgeries ... and they're a lock to win this division. That's how good this passing game is going to be. Peyton Manning picked the league apart last year and now gets to throw to Wes Welker, too. As the season progresses, rookie Montee Ball will solidify the running game and Von Miller's return from suspension will strengthen the defense. Manning's neck is just about the only thing that can stop this team from the AFC Championship Game.
Over/Under 11.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Manning leads the NFL in passing yardage.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
A massive improvement is coming. There's nowhere to go but up following a 2-14 season. But Alex Smith's limitations as a downfield passer will likely cap that improvement to, say, 7-9 rather than 9-7. Smith's success with the 49ers was created by their run-heavy system and elite offensive line, neither of which will follow him to Kansas City. On the positive side: upgrading from Romeo Crennel to Andy Reid at head coach should be a worth a couple wins alone. And a healthy Jamaal Charles should be in line for another huge season.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under (very slightly).
Bonus Prediction: Jamaal Charles accumulates 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
3. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are absolute dreck. Philip Rivers looks cooked, Ryan Mathews has been a dud, the receiving corps is decimated. Even if they play some defense, they won't score any points, so who really cares?
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER
Bonus Prediction: Philip Rivers makes fewer starts in 2013 than Blaine Gabbert.
4. Oakland Raiders
The preseason quarterback "battle" was between Matt Flynn and Terrelle Pryor. This roster is one giant dumpster.
Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Under, with supreme confidence.
Bonus Prediction: The Oakland Raiders pick first in the 2014 NFL Draft.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Bracketeering, Part Four: The East Region
The East is basically divided into two stratospheres. The first contains Indiana and Miami, the two best teams in the region. The second is made up of everybody else, and they're all basically on the same plane. The "gap" between, say, #5 UNLV and #12 California is minuscule despite the seeding difference. So an Indiana-Miami regional final seems inevitable -- but the rest of the bracket? Wide open and totally unpredictable. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The most over-seeded team in the tournament this year, by far, is Marquette. The Golden Eagles did win a share of the Big East title, which is probably why the Selection Committee saw fit to award them a #3 seed. Still, their only significant win away from home all year was an overtime victory at Pitt two months ago. They don't have a dominant player and can't shoot three-pointers. Plus, they're matched up against a red-hot, well-coached Davidson team that's a lot better than the average 14-seed. 3-seeds don't lose in the first round very often, but Marquette is closer to a 5-seed. And even if the Golden Eagles win, they draw either Butler or Bucknell in the Round of 32. Marquette isn't doing much damage this year.
2. A 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in virtually every tournament for the last quarter-century. Those are the most popular upset picks and usually they jump right off the page. This year, they're actually tough to find. Most of the 5-seeds are excellent teams (Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, VCU). The one exception is UNLV in this region. The Rebels look vulnerable against #12 California, for more reasons than anyone should need. First of all, there's no way the Rebels deserved a 5-seed. Like Marquette, they hardly did anything away from home. That's a particular problem in this first-round game, which is taking place in San Jose, a virtual home game for Cal. Then, consider that 5-seeds from non-Power-Six conferences are particularly vulnerable to early upsets (like last year, when Temple and Wichita State were felled in the first round), especially when they face 12-seeds that are from a Power Six conference, like Cal. And the Mountain West Conference's historical record in the NCAA tournament is quite poor. If a 12-over-5 upset is going to happen, all signs point to Cal-over-UNLV as the likeliest possibility.
3. Of all the double-digit seeds in the tournament, #11 Bucknell has one of the best shots at reaching the Sweet Sixteen despite drawing Butler in the first round. The Bison have already played tough competition this season, almost winning at Missouri, and they have a dominant frontcourt presence in Mike Muscala. If they advance, their next opponent could be the overrated Marquette -- or maybe we get a Bucknell-vs-Davidson showdown with the Sweet Sixteen on the line?
4. There's no other way to say this: N.C. State vs. Temple is going to be awesome. There will be many shots. There will be no defense. There will be many points. Yes please.
5. At the end of the day, this region still has to come down to Indiana and Miami, right? Sure, there's a chance Syracuse's zone stops Indiana cold, and there's a chance Illinois shoots Miami right out of the gym. But the Hoosiers and Hurricanes are head-and-shoulders above everybody else in this bracket. Both have some truly breathtaking basketball talents. If they do meet in the regional final, chances are that game would be a memorable classic.
So, What Happens? Utter chaos, that's what happens. Marquette doesn't get to the Sweet Sixteen, but a double-digit seed does. UNLV goes down to Cal. Even Montana puts a scare into Syracuse (though the Orange do survive until the second weekend). Once the dust settles, Indiana and Miami are the last ones standing, and Victor Oladipo shuts down Shane Larkin as the Hoosiers advance to the Final Four.
1. The most over-seeded team in the tournament this year, by far, is Marquette. The Golden Eagles did win a share of the Big East title, which is probably why the Selection Committee saw fit to award them a #3 seed. Still, their only significant win away from home all year was an overtime victory at Pitt two months ago. They don't have a dominant player and can't shoot three-pointers. Plus, they're matched up against a red-hot, well-coached Davidson team that's a lot better than the average 14-seed. 3-seeds don't lose in the first round very often, but Marquette is closer to a 5-seed. And even if the Golden Eagles win, they draw either Butler or Bucknell in the Round of 32. Marquette isn't doing much damage this year.
2. A 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in virtually every tournament for the last quarter-century. Those are the most popular upset picks and usually they jump right off the page. This year, they're actually tough to find. Most of the 5-seeds are excellent teams (Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, VCU). The one exception is UNLV in this region. The Rebels look vulnerable against #12 California, for more reasons than anyone should need. First of all, there's no way the Rebels deserved a 5-seed. Like Marquette, they hardly did anything away from home. That's a particular problem in this first-round game, which is taking place in San Jose, a virtual home game for Cal. Then, consider that 5-seeds from non-Power-Six conferences are particularly vulnerable to early upsets (like last year, when Temple and Wichita State were felled in the first round), especially when they face 12-seeds that are from a Power Six conference, like Cal. And the Mountain West Conference's historical record in the NCAA tournament is quite poor. If a 12-over-5 upset is going to happen, all signs point to Cal-over-UNLV as the likeliest possibility.
3. Of all the double-digit seeds in the tournament, #11 Bucknell has one of the best shots at reaching the Sweet Sixteen despite drawing Butler in the first round. The Bison have already played tough competition this season, almost winning at Missouri, and they have a dominant frontcourt presence in Mike Muscala. If they advance, their next opponent could be the overrated Marquette -- or maybe we get a Bucknell-vs-Davidson showdown with the Sweet Sixteen on the line?
4. There's no other way to say this: N.C. State vs. Temple is going to be awesome. There will be many shots. There will be no defense. There will be many points. Yes please.
5. At the end of the day, this region still has to come down to Indiana and Miami, right? Sure, there's a chance Syracuse's zone stops Indiana cold, and there's a chance Illinois shoots Miami right out of the gym. But the Hoosiers and Hurricanes are head-and-shoulders above everybody else in this bracket. Both have some truly breathtaking basketball talents. If they do meet in the regional final, chances are that game would be a memorable classic.
So, What Happens? Utter chaos, that's what happens. Marquette doesn't get to the Sweet Sixteen, but a double-digit seed does. UNLV goes down to Cal. Even Montana puts a scare into Syracuse (though the Orange do survive until the second weekend). Once the dust settles, Indiana and Miami are the last ones standing, and Victor Oladipo shuts down Shane Larkin as the Hoosiers advance to the Final Four.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Bracketeering, Part Three: The South Region
Thirteen expert analysts have revealed their Final Four picks on ESPN.com, from Jay Bilas to Jay Williams. They overwhelmingly prefer Louisville coming out of the Midwest, either Gonzaga or Ohio State from the West, and either Indiana or Miami from the East. As for the South? That's where the consensus breaks down. Each of the region's top five seeds were picked at least once; the #1 seed, Kansas, got as much support as the #5 seed, VCU. With the teams at the top bunched so closely together in quality, the South really is nothing more than a toss-up. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The excellence at the top of the bracket really distracts from how unappealing the lower seeds are. #6 UCLA is playing without Jordan Adams; even with him, the Bruins were an up-and-down team at best. The four participants in the 8/9 and 7/10 games (Villanova, North Carolina, San Diego State, and Oklahoma) are all deeply flawed, and (with the exception of North Carolina) fairly bland. #11 Minnesota is the most ice-cold team in the entire tournament. And #12 Akron would have had excellent Cinderella potential ... before losing their point guard for the season. For the most part, the lower seeds in the South have little to offer.
2. The one exception, however, is thirteen-seed South Dakota State. Their star guard Nate Wolters (averaging 22.7 points per game) is a borderline NBA prospect who leads a high-scoring offense. If the Jackrabbits were going up against a legitimate defense in the first round, there'd be little to no chance of an upset. But they're facing Michigan. Not only do the Wolverines care a lot more about scoring than defending; they also lost to a #13 seed just last year (Ohio). Anything could happen if the game descends into a jump-shooting contest. While this potential upset isn't one of the more likely ones, the mere possibility of it happening should strike fear into the hearts of those picking Michigan to make a deep run.
3. One of the teams rooting hard for South Dakota State to pull off the shocker is VCU. If the fifth-seeded Rams advance against Akron, they'd hypothetically match up against Michigan, a team that rarely commits turnovers thanks to the hyper-efficient Trey Burke. VCU needs to force turnovers to win and might not be able to squeeze them out of Michigan. But if the Rams do somehow sneak their way into the Sweet Sixteen, their pressure defense would match up perfectly against Kansas. The Jayhawks don't have a reliable ballhandler. It's easy to picture Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe getting burned repeatedly by VCU's press. Ironically, Kansas would probably rather take its chances against Trey Burke and Michigan's offense. That says a lot about the importance of matchups in this tournament.
4. There is no more frustrating game to pick in the first round than UCLA versus Minnesota. Despite being the 11-seed, Minnesota is actually favored to win. The Bruins will be at a massive disadvantage on the boards and freshman Jordan Adams is out for the tournament thanks to an injury sustained last week. Minnesota isn't exactly a lock though -- the Golden Gophers have lost eleven of their past sixteen games, including three in a row to Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois. Thankfully, the winner here is going to get clobbered by Florida so we won't be subject to either one much longer.
5. It would be a huge shock if #2 seed Georgetown and #3 seed Florida don't meet for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. Both are trying to put an end to the negative narratives that have come to define them. Georgetown goes through long stretches of offensive futility and has drastically underperformed in recent tournaments. Florida has been miserable in crucial late-game situations, contributing to their 0-6 record in games decided by six points or less. At some point, Georgetown is going to have to actually score points and Florida is going to have to actually win a close game.
So, What Happens? Minnesota over UCLA is the only significant upset of the first round but the Golden Gophers are still terrible, even in victory. Michigan fails to live up to expectations for the second consecutive year by falling short of the Sweet Sixteen. Instead, it's Shaka Smart who solidifies his reputation as a March wizard by getting his VCU Rams to the second weekend. Georgetown almost goes home early again but survives scares from Florida Gulf Coast and San Diego State. And Florida never has to deal with its shortcomings in the clutch department, choosing instead to simply crush all of its opponents en route to a Final Four appearance.
1. The excellence at the top of the bracket really distracts from how unappealing the lower seeds are. #6 UCLA is playing without Jordan Adams; even with him, the Bruins were an up-and-down team at best. The four participants in the 8/9 and 7/10 games (Villanova, North Carolina, San Diego State, and Oklahoma) are all deeply flawed, and (with the exception of North Carolina) fairly bland. #11 Minnesota is the most ice-cold team in the entire tournament. And #12 Akron would have had excellent Cinderella potential ... before losing their point guard for the season. For the most part, the lower seeds in the South have little to offer.
2. The one exception, however, is thirteen-seed South Dakota State. Their star guard Nate Wolters (averaging 22.7 points per game) is a borderline NBA prospect who leads a high-scoring offense. If the Jackrabbits were going up against a legitimate defense in the first round, there'd be little to no chance of an upset. But they're facing Michigan. Not only do the Wolverines care a lot more about scoring than defending; they also lost to a #13 seed just last year (Ohio). Anything could happen if the game descends into a jump-shooting contest. While this potential upset isn't one of the more likely ones, the mere possibility of it happening should strike fear into the hearts of those picking Michigan to make a deep run.
3. One of the teams rooting hard for South Dakota State to pull off the shocker is VCU. If the fifth-seeded Rams advance against Akron, they'd hypothetically match up against Michigan, a team that rarely commits turnovers thanks to the hyper-efficient Trey Burke. VCU needs to force turnovers to win and might not be able to squeeze them out of Michigan. But if the Rams do somehow sneak their way into the Sweet Sixteen, their pressure defense would match up perfectly against Kansas. The Jayhawks don't have a reliable ballhandler. It's easy to picture Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe getting burned repeatedly by VCU's press. Ironically, Kansas would probably rather take its chances against Trey Burke and Michigan's offense. That says a lot about the importance of matchups in this tournament.
4. There is no more frustrating game to pick in the first round than UCLA versus Minnesota. Despite being the 11-seed, Minnesota is actually favored to win. The Bruins will be at a massive disadvantage on the boards and freshman Jordan Adams is out for the tournament thanks to an injury sustained last week. Minnesota isn't exactly a lock though -- the Golden Gophers have lost eleven of their past sixteen games, including three in a row to Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois. Thankfully, the winner here is going to get clobbered by Florida so we won't be subject to either one much longer.
5. It would be a huge shock if #2 seed Georgetown and #3 seed Florida don't meet for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. Both are trying to put an end to the negative narratives that have come to define them. Georgetown goes through long stretches of offensive futility and has drastically underperformed in recent tournaments. Florida has been miserable in crucial late-game situations, contributing to their 0-6 record in games decided by six points or less. At some point, Georgetown is going to have to actually score points and Florida is going to have to actually win a close game.
So, What Happens? Minnesota over UCLA is the only significant upset of the first round but the Golden Gophers are still terrible, even in victory. Michigan fails to live up to expectations for the second consecutive year by falling short of the Sweet Sixteen. Instead, it's Shaka Smart who solidifies his reputation as a March wizard by getting his VCU Rams to the second weekend. Georgetown almost goes home early again but survives scares from Florida Gulf Coast and San Diego State. And Florida never has to deal with its shortcomings in the clutch department, choosing instead to simply crush all of its opponents en route to a Final Four appearance.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Bracketeering, Part Two: The West Region
If a surprise team ends up making the Final Four, chances are it will come from the West Region. At the top you'll find the weakest #1 seed (Gonzaga) and weakest #2 seed (Ohio State) in the field, along with a #3 seed (New Mexico) that few people ever saw play. Throw in some lower-seeded sleepers like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, plus potential Cinderellas like Belmont and Ole Miss, and the West could be the bracket that collapses in a whirlpool of delicious chaos. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The primary concern about Gonzaga is how well their efficient offense will perform against tenacious defenses, the likes of which don't exist in the West Coast Conference. We're definitely going to find out. The Zags' path to the Final Four could potentially go through Pitt in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, and Ohio State or New Mexico in the Elite Eight. All four of those teams are among the top 20 defensive units in the country. Good luck, fair sirs.
2. Every bracket has an Enigma Team that could go to the Final Four or lose in the first round. In the West, it's Arizona. The sixth-seeded Wildcats have a ton of talented players and they proved it by beating Florida and Miami earlier in the season. But they also finished poorly down the stretch in the Pac-12 and don't really have a true point guard. Having to face Belmont's excellent guards in the first round won't help, either. A first-round exit seems much more likely than a deep run.
3. In each of the last five NCAA Tournaments, a 4-seed has fallen to a 13-seed in the first round (last year, it was Michigan losing to Ohio). Kansas State looks like the most vulnerable candidate this time around. Whereas the other 4-seeds will be playing 13-seeds from tiny conferences, Kansas State is stuck playing the winner of the play-in game between La Salle and Boise State, both of which played in strong leagues that got five teams into the tournament.
4. One of the classic bracket-picking strategies is finding #12 seeds that have a good chance of beating #5 seeds. Those upsets happen at a surprisingly high frequency. But is anyone actually taking Ole Miss over Wisconsin in this region? Regardless of the Rebels' inspiring run through the SEC tournament, they're still not a particularly good team. Wisconsin will find a way to shut down the outspoken scorer Marshall Henderson. Defense trumps narrative.
5. The double-digit seed with the most long-term potential here? It's easily Iowa State. The Cyclones knock down more three-pointers than basically anyone. Their six core players all average at least nine points a game, giving them a balanced and dangerous offensive attack. Their defense? Mostly nonexistent. Yet given how many teams in this region struggle to score, Iowa State could do some damage if the shots are falling.
So, What Happens? A bunch of upsets early, as K-State, Arizona, and Notre Dame all fall in the first round. Marshall Henderson is never heard from again. New Mexico proves it belongs with the big boys by reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga gets there too, but no further, thanks to Wisconsin's frustrating style. And Ohio State emerges from the fray to reach its second consecutive Final Four.
1. The primary concern about Gonzaga is how well their efficient offense will perform against tenacious defenses, the likes of which don't exist in the West Coast Conference. We're definitely going to find out. The Zags' path to the Final Four could potentially go through Pitt in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, and Ohio State or New Mexico in the Elite Eight. All four of those teams are among the top 20 defensive units in the country. Good luck, fair sirs.
2. Every bracket has an Enigma Team that could go to the Final Four or lose in the first round. In the West, it's Arizona. The sixth-seeded Wildcats have a ton of talented players and they proved it by beating Florida and Miami earlier in the season. But they also finished poorly down the stretch in the Pac-12 and don't really have a true point guard. Having to face Belmont's excellent guards in the first round won't help, either. A first-round exit seems much more likely than a deep run.
3. In each of the last five NCAA Tournaments, a 4-seed has fallen to a 13-seed in the first round (last year, it was Michigan losing to Ohio). Kansas State looks like the most vulnerable candidate this time around. Whereas the other 4-seeds will be playing 13-seeds from tiny conferences, Kansas State is stuck playing the winner of the play-in game between La Salle and Boise State, both of which played in strong leagues that got five teams into the tournament.
4. One of the classic bracket-picking strategies is finding #12 seeds that have a good chance of beating #5 seeds. Those upsets happen at a surprisingly high frequency. But is anyone actually taking Ole Miss over Wisconsin in this region? Regardless of the Rebels' inspiring run through the SEC tournament, they're still not a particularly good team. Wisconsin will find a way to shut down the outspoken scorer Marshall Henderson. Defense trumps narrative.
5. The double-digit seed with the most long-term potential here? It's easily Iowa State. The Cyclones knock down more three-pointers than basically anyone. Their six core players all average at least nine points a game, giving them a balanced and dangerous offensive attack. Their defense? Mostly nonexistent. Yet given how many teams in this region struggle to score, Iowa State could do some damage if the shots are falling.
So, What Happens? A bunch of upsets early, as K-State, Arizona, and Notre Dame all fall in the first round. Marshall Henderson is never heard from again. New Mexico proves it belongs with the big boys by reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga gets there too, but no further, thanks to Wisconsin's frustrating style. And Ohio State emerges from the fray to reach its second consecutive Final Four.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Bracketeering, Part One: The Midwest Region
Every year, the NCAA Tournament has a Region of Death. In 2013, it's the Midwest.
Marcus Smart, Peyton Siva, and Keith Appling. Rick Pitino, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo. Doug McDermott, Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng. They can all be found in the Midwest. Whoever emerges from this region will have earned it. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. It would be a huge surprise if the three top seeds -- Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State -- didn't all advance to the Sweet Sixteen with relative ease. Who can stand in their way? That's what makes this region so tough. We're almost guaranteed some epic games between national title contenders on the second weekend.
2. Usually, a #4 seed isn't a sleeper. In this bracket, Saint Louis is. The Billikens are fundamentally sound with a tenacious defense and balanced offense. They aren't going to lose to New Mexico State in the Round of 64 and if they get past the Oklahoma State/Oregon winner, Louisville will have its hands full in that Sweet Sixteen matchup.
3. #5 seed Oklahoma State got a raw deal. Not only did the Cowboys get stuck in the worst region ... and not only are they stuck in the same pod as Saint Louis ... they also got paired up with twelfth-seeded Oregon in the first round. That's hardly fair. Oregon is way better than your typical #12 seed (the other three were Akron, California, and Ole Miss ... yuck). The Ducks just won the Pac-12 tournament and were projected to be a single-digit seed. Apparently they ended up on the 12-line because of other conflicts. That's a tough break for the Cowboys even though I'd still expect them to win this game.
4. Middle Tennessee facing Saint Mary's is the ideal play-in game. Nobody knows how good these teams are because neither one faced very many quality teams. So they can slug it out in Dayton while the rest of us educate ourselves on the Blue Raiders and the Gaels. Perfect.
5. Each region typically has three "toss-ups" that are headaches to try and pick: the 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, and 6 vs. 11 games. But the Midwest's toss-up contests each feature a team I deeply dislike, which makes them easier to pick than usual. One is eighth-seeded Missouri, a team that struggles mightily away from home and whose point guard Phil Pressey is prone to poor decision-making. Their first-round opponent Colorado State is much more reliable. The second is #10 seed Cincinnati, because the Bearcats' halfcourt offense makes eyes bleed. Creighton will be able to actually score the basketball. The third is Memphis, which seems heavily overvalued as a six-seed. The only NCAA Tournament team Memphis has beaten is Harvard. No joke. The Tigers play the winner of the Saint Mary's/Middle Tennessee play-in game; they're a likely upset victim if one of those two underdogs ends up being respectable.
So, What Happens? Chalk to the Sweet Sixteen. Memphis goes down, but not many other upsets -- Oregon, Valparaiso, and New Mexico State are far from impressive. The winner of the Saint Louis/Oklahoma State game becomes the dangerous team to watch. In the second weekend, Michigan State uses its massive size advantage to exploit Duke's rebounding weakness, but the Spartans can't handle Louisville's pressure in the regional final. And the Midwest will make up for its lack of an inspiring Cinderella with basketball of the very highest quality.
Marcus Smart, Peyton Siva, and Keith Appling. Rick Pitino, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo. Doug McDermott, Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng. They can all be found in the Midwest. Whoever emerges from this region will have earned it. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. It would be a huge surprise if the three top seeds -- Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State -- didn't all advance to the Sweet Sixteen with relative ease. Who can stand in their way? That's what makes this region so tough. We're almost guaranteed some epic games between national title contenders on the second weekend.
2. Usually, a #4 seed isn't a sleeper. In this bracket, Saint Louis is. The Billikens are fundamentally sound with a tenacious defense and balanced offense. They aren't going to lose to New Mexico State in the Round of 64 and if they get past the Oklahoma State/Oregon winner, Louisville will have its hands full in that Sweet Sixteen matchup.
3. #5 seed Oklahoma State got a raw deal. Not only did the Cowboys get stuck in the worst region ... and not only are they stuck in the same pod as Saint Louis ... they also got paired up with twelfth-seeded Oregon in the first round. That's hardly fair. Oregon is way better than your typical #12 seed (the other three were Akron, California, and Ole Miss ... yuck). The Ducks just won the Pac-12 tournament and were projected to be a single-digit seed. Apparently they ended up on the 12-line because of other conflicts. That's a tough break for the Cowboys even though I'd still expect them to win this game.
4. Middle Tennessee facing Saint Mary's is the ideal play-in game. Nobody knows how good these teams are because neither one faced very many quality teams. So they can slug it out in Dayton while the rest of us educate ourselves on the Blue Raiders and the Gaels. Perfect.
5. Each region typically has three "toss-ups" that are headaches to try and pick: the 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, and 6 vs. 11 games. But the Midwest's toss-up contests each feature a team I deeply dislike, which makes them easier to pick than usual. One is eighth-seeded Missouri, a team that struggles mightily away from home and whose point guard Phil Pressey is prone to poor decision-making. Their first-round opponent Colorado State is much more reliable. The second is #10 seed Cincinnati, because the Bearcats' halfcourt offense makes eyes bleed. Creighton will be able to actually score the basketball. The third is Memphis, which seems heavily overvalued as a six-seed. The only NCAA Tournament team Memphis has beaten is Harvard. No joke. The Tigers play the winner of the Saint Mary's/Middle Tennessee play-in game; they're a likely upset victim if one of those two underdogs ends up being respectable.
So, What Happens? Chalk to the Sweet Sixteen. Memphis goes down, but not many other upsets -- Oregon, Valparaiso, and New Mexico State are far from impressive. The winner of the Saint Louis/Oklahoma State game becomes the dangerous team to watch. In the second weekend, Michigan State uses its massive size advantage to exploit Duke's rebounding weakness, but the Spartans can't handle Louisville's pressure in the regional final. And the Midwest will make up for its lack of an inspiring Cinderella with basketball of the very highest quality.
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Previewing the Conference Tournaments
THE MOUNTAIN WEST
Why It Matters: The conference with the most parity of any league in the country is guaranteed to have an entertaining tournament. The only bubble team is Boise State, which strengthened its NCAA Tournament case by beating San Diego State in the regular season finale ... and now the two teams are matched up again in the quarterfinal. A second Boise State win over SDSU should be enough to get the Broncos into the field. The stakes are high at the top, too. If New Mexico claims the championship, a #2 seed becomes a likelihood. And UNLV, which boasts enticing talent but continues to underperform, has a lot to prove. If the Rebels can't make noise in this tournament -- which is on their home court in Las Vegas -- it would become impossible to trust them in March Madness.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Of all the teams in this conference, 2-seed Colorado State is sneakily underrated. The Rams are the most-experienced and best-rebounding team in the country. Seeing them in a neutral-court final against New Mexico would reveal their true potential.
Who Wins: New Mexico, the 1-seed.
THE ATLANTIC 10
Why It Matters: Last year, this tournament was chaotic and St. Bonaventure's stole a tournament bid out of nowhere. This year, the league has four guaranteed tournament teams, two more fighting for spots on the bubble, and a bunch of potential spoilers. Things will get crazy. La Salle is right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament and can stamp its ticket by "upsetting" Butler (the five seed) in the quarterfinals; it just so happens that the Explorers have already pulled off that feat once this season. On the other half of the bracket, Xavier is far more desperate, needing to beat Saint Joseph's and then VCU just to keep itself in consideration for a bid. If there's a favorite in all of this, it's the balanced-and-defensively-sound Saint Louis Billikens, who could be as high as a #4 seed if they emerge from this event victorious. But their path is so tricky that their semifinal comes against the winner of La Salle/Butler. To say nothing of a possible championship game against perhaps VCU or Temple. The only predictable thing about the Atlantic 10 Tournament is that it's going to be utterly unpredictable.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Who wouldn't want to see a Butler/VCU championship game? The two of them only had one regular season matchup and it was a dud, a VCU blowout win. With Butler possibly leaving the A-10 for the new Big East, these rising programs may not play again for a long time. Rematch, please.
Who Wins: Saint Louis, the 1-seed.
THE SEC
Why It Matters: A ton of bubble intrigue here, starting with, of course, Kentucky. The Wildcats somehow ended up with the 2-seed in this tournament (good god, the SEC was unspeakably bad) so there's an opportunity to advance to the finals -- which should be enough to earn them an at-large berth. They just have to win two games to get there: one over the Arkansas/Vanderbilt winner, and one over Ole Miss or Missouri. Very doable. The road is tougher for fellow bubble-dweller Tennessee. The Volunteers have to beat the winner of Mississippi State/South Carolina and then topple Alabama just to get a semifinal matchup with the massive tourney favorite, Florida. But they're scorching hot right now and a deep run wouldn't be crazy at all.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Any game featuring two desperate bubble teams battling to the death is a treat, which is why a possible Tennessee-Alabama quarterfinal or a Kentucky-Ole Miss semifinal would be enticing.
Who Wins: Florida, the 1-seed.
THE PAC 12
Why It Matters; Maybe this tournament will give the conference some semblance of order. Probably not, though. If there's a bubble team here, it's Colorado, which can't afford to suffer a bad loss to Oregon State in the opening round. Oregon needs to show something, anything, after going 5-5 in its final 10 games. The best NCAA Tournament seed from this league is going to belong to Arizona, but the Wildcats still probably can't improve beyond a #4 seed even if they win this tourney. UCLA is technically the favorite but there are at least six teams that could stumble into the championship. What a jumbled mess this is.
Potential Juicy Matchups: All of them, or none of them, depending on your perspective.
Who Wins: [puts names into hat, shuffles, draws from them blindly] UCLA, the 1-seed.
THE BIG 12
Why It Matters: Kansas would join the conversation for a #1 seed by winning this thing. But most of the drama lies with this league's two true bubble teams. Iowa State drew a solid Oklahoma team in the first round, and Baylor desperately needs a win over Oklahoma State to keep its tournament hopes alive. For those two teams, their first-round contests basically amount to NCAA Tournament play-in games.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Iowa State lost to Kansas twice this season and both were heartbreakers -- one because of a last-second three-pointer by Ben McLemore, and the other because of a Herculean effort by Elijah Johnson. If the Cyclones get another shot at Kansas in the semifinals, the Jayhawks might not get lucky three times in a row.
Who Wins: Oklahoma State, the 3-seed.
THE ACC
Why It Matters: Virginia is the team with the most to gain here. The ACC's 4-seed sits squarely on the bubble, awaiting the victor of the first-round game between N.C. State and Virginia Tech. A win (especially one over N.C. State) that advances them to the semifinals against Miami could be enough to get the Cavaliers an at-large berth. Meanwhile, Maryland will almost certainly end up in the NIT without a second upset of Duke in the quarterfinals. At the top of the league, winning the tourney would mean a guaranteed #1 seed for Duke (perhaps even the #1 overall position) and a #2 seed for Miami.
Potential Juicy Matchups: The third, tie-breaking game between Duke and Miami in the finals is what the people want. Everyone, please cooperate to ensure this happens.
Who Wins: Duke, the 2-seed.
THE BIG EAST
Why It Matters: The stakes are highest for the top two teams: either Louisville or Georgetown would put itself in prime position for a #1 seed by winning the last-ever Big East Tournament. The only true bubble team is Villanova, which will likely make the March Madness field regardless -- but avoiding a weird loss to St. John's in the first round would probably be advisable. Everybody else is playing to improve their seeding.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Given Villanova's reputation as a giant-slayer, a second-round duel with Louisville would be compelling. But what everyone wants to see is a championship-game rematch of Louisville and Georgetown, clearly the two best teams in the league.
Who Wins: Louisville, the 2-seed.
THE BIG TEN
Why It Matters: Ironically, this tournament might not mean much for Indiana, which seemingly has a #1 seed locked up already. It's Michigan and Michigan State that have the most to gain. Either team could get bumped up to the top seed line by winning this tournament. If Ohio State wins it, a #2 seed wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois are playing to regain lost momentum heading into the NCAAs. And if Iowa wants to make one last-ditch effort at getting an unlikely at-large berth, beating Northwestern and Michigan State in the first two rounds are minimum requirements.
Potential Juicy Matchups: It would be great to see a rematch of Wisconsin-Indiana in the semifinals after the Badgers upset the Hoosiers in their own building way back in January (the teams only played once). Wisconsin would have to get past Michigan in the quarterfinals, though. Yes, Michigan-Wisconsin is a quarterfinal matchup in this league. That could easily end up being an Elite Eight game and nobody would blink an eye.
Who Wins: Indiana, the 1-seed.
Why It Matters: The conference with the most parity of any league in the country is guaranteed to have an entertaining tournament. The only bubble team is Boise State, which strengthened its NCAA Tournament case by beating San Diego State in the regular season finale ... and now the two teams are matched up again in the quarterfinal. A second Boise State win over SDSU should be enough to get the Broncos into the field. The stakes are high at the top, too. If New Mexico claims the championship, a #2 seed becomes a likelihood. And UNLV, which boasts enticing talent but continues to underperform, has a lot to prove. If the Rebels can't make noise in this tournament -- which is on their home court in Las Vegas -- it would become impossible to trust them in March Madness.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Of all the teams in this conference, 2-seed Colorado State is sneakily underrated. The Rams are the most-experienced and best-rebounding team in the country. Seeing them in a neutral-court final against New Mexico would reveal their true potential.
Who Wins: New Mexico, the 1-seed.
THE ATLANTIC 10
Why It Matters: Last year, this tournament was chaotic and St. Bonaventure's stole a tournament bid out of nowhere. This year, the league has four guaranteed tournament teams, two more fighting for spots on the bubble, and a bunch of potential spoilers. Things will get crazy. La Salle is right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament and can stamp its ticket by "upsetting" Butler (the five seed) in the quarterfinals; it just so happens that the Explorers have already pulled off that feat once this season. On the other half of the bracket, Xavier is far more desperate, needing to beat Saint Joseph's and then VCU just to keep itself in consideration for a bid. If there's a favorite in all of this, it's the balanced-and-defensively-sound Saint Louis Billikens, who could be as high as a #4 seed if they emerge from this event victorious. But their path is so tricky that their semifinal comes against the winner of La Salle/Butler. To say nothing of a possible championship game against perhaps VCU or Temple. The only predictable thing about the Atlantic 10 Tournament is that it's going to be utterly unpredictable.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Who wouldn't want to see a Butler/VCU championship game? The two of them only had one regular season matchup and it was a dud, a VCU blowout win. With Butler possibly leaving the A-10 for the new Big East, these rising programs may not play again for a long time. Rematch, please.
Who Wins: Saint Louis, the 1-seed.
THE SEC
Why It Matters: A ton of bubble intrigue here, starting with, of course, Kentucky. The Wildcats somehow ended up with the 2-seed in this tournament (good god, the SEC was unspeakably bad) so there's an opportunity to advance to the finals -- which should be enough to earn them an at-large berth. They just have to win two games to get there: one over the Arkansas/Vanderbilt winner, and one over Ole Miss or Missouri. Very doable. The road is tougher for fellow bubble-dweller Tennessee. The Volunteers have to beat the winner of Mississippi State/South Carolina and then topple Alabama just to get a semifinal matchup with the massive tourney favorite, Florida. But they're scorching hot right now and a deep run wouldn't be crazy at all.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Any game featuring two desperate bubble teams battling to the death is a treat, which is why a possible Tennessee-Alabama quarterfinal or a Kentucky-Ole Miss semifinal would be enticing.
Who Wins: Florida, the 1-seed.
THE PAC 12
Why It Matters; Maybe this tournament will give the conference some semblance of order. Probably not, though. If there's a bubble team here, it's Colorado, which can't afford to suffer a bad loss to Oregon State in the opening round. Oregon needs to show something, anything, after going 5-5 in its final 10 games. The best NCAA Tournament seed from this league is going to belong to Arizona, but the Wildcats still probably can't improve beyond a #4 seed even if they win this tourney. UCLA is technically the favorite but there are at least six teams that could stumble into the championship. What a jumbled mess this is.
Potential Juicy Matchups: All of them, or none of them, depending on your perspective.
Who Wins: [puts names into hat, shuffles, draws from them blindly] UCLA, the 1-seed.
THE BIG 12
Why It Matters: Kansas would join the conversation for a #1 seed by winning this thing. But most of the drama lies with this league's two true bubble teams. Iowa State drew a solid Oklahoma team in the first round, and Baylor desperately needs a win over Oklahoma State to keep its tournament hopes alive. For those two teams, their first-round contests basically amount to NCAA Tournament play-in games.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Iowa State lost to Kansas twice this season and both were heartbreakers -- one because of a last-second three-pointer by Ben McLemore, and the other because of a Herculean effort by Elijah Johnson. If the Cyclones get another shot at Kansas in the semifinals, the Jayhawks might not get lucky three times in a row.
Who Wins: Oklahoma State, the 3-seed.
THE ACC
Why It Matters: Virginia is the team with the most to gain here. The ACC's 4-seed sits squarely on the bubble, awaiting the victor of the first-round game between N.C. State and Virginia Tech. A win (especially one over N.C. State) that advances them to the semifinals against Miami could be enough to get the Cavaliers an at-large berth. Meanwhile, Maryland will almost certainly end up in the NIT without a second upset of Duke in the quarterfinals. At the top of the league, winning the tourney would mean a guaranteed #1 seed for Duke (perhaps even the #1 overall position) and a #2 seed for Miami.
Potential Juicy Matchups: The third, tie-breaking game between Duke and Miami in the finals is what the people want. Everyone, please cooperate to ensure this happens.
Who Wins: Duke, the 2-seed.
THE BIG EAST
Why It Matters: The stakes are highest for the top two teams: either Louisville or Georgetown would put itself in prime position for a #1 seed by winning the last-ever Big East Tournament. The only true bubble team is Villanova, which will likely make the March Madness field regardless -- but avoiding a weird loss to St. John's in the first round would probably be advisable. Everybody else is playing to improve their seeding.
Potential Juicy Matchups: Given Villanova's reputation as a giant-slayer, a second-round duel with Louisville would be compelling. But what everyone wants to see is a championship-game rematch of Louisville and Georgetown, clearly the two best teams in the league.
Who Wins: Louisville, the 2-seed.
THE BIG TEN
Why It Matters: Ironically, this tournament might not mean much for Indiana, which seemingly has a #1 seed locked up already. It's Michigan and Michigan State that have the most to gain. Either team could get bumped up to the top seed line by winning this tournament. If Ohio State wins it, a #2 seed wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois are playing to regain lost momentum heading into the NCAAs. And if Iowa wants to make one last-ditch effort at getting an unlikely at-large berth, beating Northwestern and Michigan State in the first two rounds are minimum requirements.
Potential Juicy Matchups: It would be great to see a rematch of Wisconsin-Indiana in the semifinals after the Badgers upset the Hoosiers in their own building way back in January (the teams only played once). Wisconsin would have to get past Michigan in the quarterfinals, though. Yes, Michigan-Wisconsin is a quarterfinal matchup in this league. That could easily end up being an Elite Eight game and nobody would blink an eye.
Who Wins: Indiana, the 1-seed.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Five Weekend Bubble Games of Note
Believe it or not, Selection Sunday is only three weeks away, and chances for borderline tournament teams to improve their resumés are quickly running out. While this weekend features a few marquee matchups like Georgetown-Syracuse and Michigan State-Ohio State, it also brings us five critical games between bubble teams on the edge of tournament consideration.
N.C. STATE at NORTH CAROLINA
If the tournament began tomorrow, would North Carolina be in the field? It could go either way. The Tar Heels only have one win over a likely NCAA Tournament team, UNLV, and that was back in 2012. They've only got two more chances for statement wins before the ACC Tournament, and this is one of them. Fortunately, their timing is pretty good, because a new four-guard lineup has them playing their best basketball of the season. And what about N.C. State? If the Wolfpack hadn't opened the season as the much-hyped ACC favorite, would they be on the bubble too? Beating Duke and North Carolina was nice, but Connecticut is their only other notable victory and they're 2-4 on the road. Sweeping the Tar Heels would go a long way towards making sure the Wolfpack aren't surprised by a lower-than-expected seed on Selection Sunday. I'd still take UNC in this one, though.
BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA
The Big 12 has quietly been a bit of an unpredictable mess this year. Baylor, just a year after being a #3-seed, has already lost ten games, including five of seven. Oklahoma beat Kansas when the Jayhawks were in their funk but didn't do enough in their nonconference schedule to be considered a safe bet for the tournament yet. These two teams, along with Iowa State, comprise the Big 12 bubble, and it looks like only two of the three will win an at-large bid. Oklahoma should win this game, which would make them 2-0 against the Bears this season -- therefore giving them a crucial unspoken tiebreaker over Baylor for the Selection Committee's purposes.
MISSOURI at KENTUCKY
Kentucky's season will be decided in this game. Since losing Nerlens Noel for the season, the Wildcats were embarrassed at Tennessee and squeaked past Vanderbilt at home. Not exactly inspiring. They need to prove they're still a tournament team without Noel, and there just aren't many opportunities to do that in this pathetic SEC. Their only other shot comes against Florida and there's little chance of an upset there. It's Beat Missouri Or Bust. And it's not like this game is meaningless for Mizzou. The Tigers beat Florida last week, virtually securing their tournament bid, but they're a meager 1-6 in road games. Perhaps no other team has such a huge disparity between how well they play at home and how bad they look on the road, except maybe the regular-season version of the Baltimore Ravens. A win at Rupp Arena, even against this so-so Kentucky squad, would really help their image. I'd take Missouri here ... even the Ravens figured it out eventually.
#17 MARQUETTE at VILLANOVA
Marquette is a lock for the tournament; Villanova has one of the most interesting cases out there. The Wildcats are one of those teams with multiple personalities -- they beat Syracuse and Louisville in back-to-back games, but they've lost to, among others, Providence (twice!), Alabama (from the terrible, awful SEC!), and Columbia (the Ivy League one! At home!). Inconsistency, playing to the level of the competition -- who knows what it is. It's bizarre. Marquette has been really impressive this year, so if the pattern holds, Villanova will probably win. Logically, then, I'll pick Marquette.
CREIGHTON at SAINT MARY'S
Saint Mary's needs this win more than any other team in the nation needs a win this weekend, including Kentucky. The Gaels have a nice 23-5 record but don't have a single eye-opening victory on their resumé. Using the eye test, they're probably a tournament-caliber team, like they were last year. There's just nothing to point to on their schedule that proves it. And they've already lost both of their games to Gonzaga, so unless they run the table in the conference tournament, this is their last shot to impress the Selection Committee. They're not making the tournament without a win here, and I think they'll get it. Desperation wins out.
N.C. STATE at NORTH CAROLINA
If the tournament began tomorrow, would North Carolina be in the field? It could go either way. The Tar Heels only have one win over a likely NCAA Tournament team, UNLV, and that was back in 2012. They've only got two more chances for statement wins before the ACC Tournament, and this is one of them. Fortunately, their timing is pretty good, because a new four-guard lineup has them playing their best basketball of the season. And what about N.C. State? If the Wolfpack hadn't opened the season as the much-hyped ACC favorite, would they be on the bubble too? Beating Duke and North Carolina was nice, but Connecticut is their only other notable victory and they're 2-4 on the road. Sweeping the Tar Heels would go a long way towards making sure the Wolfpack aren't surprised by a lower-than-expected seed on Selection Sunday. I'd still take UNC in this one, though.
BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA
The Big 12 has quietly been a bit of an unpredictable mess this year. Baylor, just a year after being a #3-seed, has already lost ten games, including five of seven. Oklahoma beat Kansas when the Jayhawks were in their funk but didn't do enough in their nonconference schedule to be considered a safe bet for the tournament yet. These two teams, along with Iowa State, comprise the Big 12 bubble, and it looks like only two of the three will win an at-large bid. Oklahoma should win this game, which would make them 2-0 against the Bears this season -- therefore giving them a crucial unspoken tiebreaker over Baylor for the Selection Committee's purposes.
MISSOURI at KENTUCKY
Kentucky's season will be decided in this game. Since losing Nerlens Noel for the season, the Wildcats were embarrassed at Tennessee and squeaked past Vanderbilt at home. Not exactly inspiring. They need to prove they're still a tournament team without Noel, and there just aren't many opportunities to do that in this pathetic SEC. Their only other shot comes against Florida and there's little chance of an upset there. It's Beat Missouri Or Bust. And it's not like this game is meaningless for Mizzou. The Tigers beat Florida last week, virtually securing their tournament bid, but they're a meager 1-6 in road games. Perhaps no other team has such a huge disparity between how well they play at home and how bad they look on the road, except maybe the regular-season version of the Baltimore Ravens. A win at Rupp Arena, even against this so-so Kentucky squad, would really help their image. I'd take Missouri here ... even the Ravens figured it out eventually.
#17 MARQUETTE at VILLANOVA
Marquette is a lock for the tournament; Villanova has one of the most interesting cases out there. The Wildcats are one of those teams with multiple personalities -- they beat Syracuse and Louisville in back-to-back games, but they've lost to, among others, Providence (twice!), Alabama (from the terrible, awful SEC!), and Columbia (the Ivy League one! At home!). Inconsistency, playing to the level of the competition -- who knows what it is. It's bizarre. Marquette has been really impressive this year, so if the pattern holds, Villanova will probably win. Logically, then, I'll pick Marquette.
CREIGHTON at SAINT MARY'S
Saint Mary's needs this win more than any other team in the nation needs a win this weekend, including Kentucky. The Gaels have a nice 23-5 record but don't have a single eye-opening victory on their resumé. Using the eye test, they're probably a tournament-caliber team, like they were last year. There's just nothing to point to on their schedule that proves it. And they've already lost both of their games to Gonzaga, so unless they run the table in the conference tournament, this is their last shot to impress the Selection Committee. They're not making the tournament without a win here, and I think they'll get it. Desperation wins out.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Previewing Week 17: "Playoffs?!"
Last week's predictions: 11/16
Season tally: 161/239, 67%
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-4)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Irrelevant games of the week. Saints-Panthers will be the only entertaining one, especially with Carolina on a three-game winning streak. The Jaguars have nothing to play for besides a top-three draft pick, but they could be a sneaky upset pick at Tennessee. They played the Patriots tough last week and their only home win of the season was against these very Titans. Meanwhile, the Jets' circus rolls on.
The picks: Saints, Jaguars, Bills.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
More irrelevant games. These ones weren't even given point spreads. The Falcons have already locked up home-field advantage and a first-round bye...so should they rest their starters against the Buccaneers? Teams that do so have a poor playoff track record.
The picks: Steelers, Falcons, Chargers.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-7.5)
With four losses in five games, the Giants need major help to reach the playoffs. The easy part is beating the Eagles. The hard part: getting losses from the Cowboys, Vikings, AND Bears.
The pick: Giants.
Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions
After all that Bears hype early in the season, they're suddenly on the verge of being overtaken in the playoff race...by Christian Ponder and the Vikings. However, a Chicago win and a Vikings loss to the Packers -- the scenario the Bears need to make the playoffs -- isn't exactly far-fetched.
The pick: Bears.
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are certainly the more motivated team: they clinch a playoff spot with a win and Adrian Peterson needs just 102 yards to reach 2,000 on the season. If both of those things happen, it will be impossible to deny Peterson the MVP award.
The pick: Packers. They're still in the hunt for the a #2 seed and its accompanying first-round bye.
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)
The red-hot Seahawks are a virtual lock to win this game, and if the 49ers also suffer an unlikely home loss to the Cardinals, Seattle would win the NFC West. It seems like an outlandish scenario, but things keep falling the Seahawks' way. In fact, their cornerback Richard Sherman won his appeal of his four-game suspension, allowing him to return for the playoffs and boost an already-elite defense.
The pick: Seahawks.
Houston Texans (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-10)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (-16)
Lots of scenarios are still in play for the top three AFC seeds. Houston wins home-field advantage with a win at the Colts, who can't improve their playoff positioning but won't be pushovers. The Broncos and Patriots are competing for the other first-round bye. Denver should easily clinch it with a win over the lowly Chiefs. The Patriots could actually finish anywhere from the #1 to the #4 seed, depending on what everyone else does.
The picks: Colts, Patriots, Broncos.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
The Bengals are already locked in as the AFC's #6 seed. The Ravens have more at stake: they can move up to the #3 seed with a win and a Patriots loss. That would mean home-field advantage over the Patriots if the two teams happened to meet in the AFC Championship, like last year.
The pick: Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-3)
The marquee game of the week has the most obvious direct playoff implications: the winner takes the NFC East crown. However, if the Redskins lose, they can also clinch a playoff spot with losses by the Bears and Vikings. Friendly reminder: Tony Romo is 1-5 in his career in elimination games.
The pick: Redskins.
Season tally: 161/239, 67%
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-4)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Irrelevant games of the week. Saints-Panthers will be the only entertaining one, especially with Carolina on a three-game winning streak. The Jaguars have nothing to play for besides a top-three draft pick, but they could be a sneaky upset pick at Tennessee. They played the Patriots tough last week and their only home win of the season was against these very Titans. Meanwhile, the Jets' circus rolls on.
The picks: Saints, Jaguars, Bills.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
More irrelevant games. These ones weren't even given point spreads. The Falcons have already locked up home-field advantage and a first-round bye...so should they rest their starters against the Buccaneers? Teams that do so have a poor playoff track record.
The picks: Steelers, Falcons, Chargers.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-7.5)
With four losses in five games, the Giants need major help to reach the playoffs. The easy part is beating the Eagles. The hard part: getting losses from the Cowboys, Vikings, AND Bears.
The pick: Giants.
Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions
After all that Bears hype early in the season, they're suddenly on the verge of being overtaken in the playoff race...by Christian Ponder and the Vikings. However, a Chicago win and a Vikings loss to the Packers -- the scenario the Bears need to make the playoffs -- isn't exactly far-fetched.
The pick: Bears.
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are certainly the more motivated team: they clinch a playoff spot with a win and Adrian Peterson needs just 102 yards to reach 2,000 on the season. If both of those things happen, it will be impossible to deny Peterson the MVP award.
The pick: Packers. They're still in the hunt for the a #2 seed and its accompanying first-round bye.
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)
The red-hot Seahawks are a virtual lock to win this game, and if the 49ers also suffer an unlikely home loss to the Cardinals, Seattle would win the NFC West. It seems like an outlandish scenario, but things keep falling the Seahawks' way. In fact, their cornerback Richard Sherman won his appeal of his four-game suspension, allowing him to return for the playoffs and boost an already-elite defense.
The pick: Seahawks.
Houston Texans (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-10)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (-16)
Lots of scenarios are still in play for the top three AFC seeds. Houston wins home-field advantage with a win at the Colts, who can't improve their playoff positioning but won't be pushovers. The Broncos and Patriots are competing for the other first-round bye. Denver should easily clinch it with a win over the lowly Chiefs. The Patriots could actually finish anywhere from the #1 to the #4 seed, depending on what everyone else does.
The picks: Colts, Patriots, Broncos.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
The Bengals are already locked in as the AFC's #6 seed. The Ravens have more at stake: they can move up to the #3 seed with a win and a Patriots loss. That would mean home-field advantage over the Patriots if the two teams happened to meet in the AFC Championship, like last year.
The pick: Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-3)
The marquee game of the week has the most obvious direct playoff implications: the winner takes the NFC East crown. However, if the Redskins lose, they can also clinch a playoff spot with losses by the Bears and Vikings. Friendly reminder: Tony Romo is 1-5 in his career in elimination games.
The pick: Redskins.
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Previewing Week 16
Last week's predictions: 9/16
Season tally: 150/223, 67%
Carolina Panthers (-8.5) @ Oakland Raiders
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets (-2.5)
These are the truly meaningless games of the week. With nothing but draft position on the line, losing is ... more than acceptable, shall we say.
The picks: Panthers, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Chargers.
Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Believe it or not, if the Cowboys beat the Saints, and then the Redskins in Week 17, they would win the division. That Dallas-Washington matchup will be massively important anyway, especially with the Skins unlikely to lose at Philadelphia.
The picks: The NFC East holds serve. Redskins and Cowboys.
Indianapolis Colts (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs
It's simple for the Colts: win and they're in. Lose and it gets way more complicated, although failing to beat the Chiefs would make them unworthy of the playoffs anyway.
The pick: Colts.
Chicago Bears (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Like the Colts, the Bears have been gifted an easy Week 16 opponent. On the other hand, their outlook is much bleaker thanks to the three teams still alive in the NFC East competing for the wild card spots. A win keeps Chicago alive, at least.
The pick: Bears.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions
The Falcons are one win away from clinching the NFC's #1 seed throughout the playoffs ... which will invariably lead to them resting their starters in a meaningless Week 17 game, sitting out the first week of the playoffs thanks to a bye, and suffering a quick, painless, second-round exit.
The pick: Falcons.
Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans (-8)
It's amazing that the Vikings have probably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL yet would make the playoffs if the season ended today. In other news: has a set of #1 seeds ever inspired less confidence than Houston and Atlanta?
The pick: Texans.
Green Bay Packers (-13.5) @ Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-13)
It's hard to imagine any of these huge favorites losing, but they'll all need help to stay in the hunt for home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Pats and Broncos are still jockeying with each other for a first-round bye, with Denver currently in the lead.
The picks: Packers, Patriots, Broncos.
New York Giants (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Giants are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose, and the Redskins, Cowboys, and Seahawks all win. The Ravens clinch the division with a win. Neither of those things happen.
The pick: Giants.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
The Steelers are technically still in contention for the division title (if they win their final two games and the Ravens lose out). But a loss hands Cincinnati their most realistic shot at the playoffs. The Bengals have been able to hide Andy Dalton's recent struggles against some bad teams. This won't work against the Steelers.
San Francisco 49ers (-1) @ Seattle Seahawks
It's hard to picture the 49ers producing a more entertaining game than last week's win at New England, but this one could top it. The Seahawks are the hottest team in football, they're at home, and they're just as good as the 49ers in every facet of the game. Russell Wilson gets his chance to win the Rookie of the Year award on a national stage.
The pick: Seahawks.
Season tally: 150/223, 67%
Carolina Panthers (-8.5) @ Oakland Raiders
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets (-2.5)
These are the truly meaningless games of the week. With nothing but draft position on the line, losing is ... more than acceptable, shall we say.
The picks: Panthers, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Chargers.
Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Believe it or not, if the Cowboys beat the Saints, and then the Redskins in Week 17, they would win the division. That Dallas-Washington matchup will be massively important anyway, especially with the Skins unlikely to lose at Philadelphia.
The picks: The NFC East holds serve. Redskins and Cowboys.
Indianapolis Colts (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs
It's simple for the Colts: win and they're in. Lose and it gets way more complicated, although failing to beat the Chiefs would make them unworthy of the playoffs anyway.
The pick: Colts.
Chicago Bears (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Like the Colts, the Bears have been gifted an easy Week 16 opponent. On the other hand, their outlook is much bleaker thanks to the three teams still alive in the NFC East competing for the wild card spots. A win keeps Chicago alive, at least.
The pick: Bears.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions
The Falcons are one win away from clinching the NFC's #1 seed throughout the playoffs ... which will invariably lead to them resting their starters in a meaningless Week 17 game, sitting out the first week of the playoffs thanks to a bye, and suffering a quick, painless, second-round exit.
The pick: Falcons.
Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans (-8)
It's amazing that the Vikings have probably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL yet would make the playoffs if the season ended today. In other news: has a set of #1 seeds ever inspired less confidence than Houston and Atlanta?
The pick: Texans.
Green Bay Packers (-13.5) @ Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-13)
It's hard to imagine any of these huge favorites losing, but they'll all need help to stay in the hunt for home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Pats and Broncos are still jockeying with each other for a first-round bye, with Denver currently in the lead.
The picks: Packers, Patriots, Broncos.
New York Giants (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Giants are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose, and the Redskins, Cowboys, and Seahawks all win. The Ravens clinch the division with a win. Neither of those things happen.
The pick: Giants.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
The Steelers are technically still in contention for the division title (if they win their final two games and the Ravens lose out). But a loss hands Cincinnati their most realistic shot at the playoffs. The Bengals have been able to hide Andy Dalton's recent struggles against some bad teams. This won't work against the Steelers.
San Francisco 49ers (-1) @ Seattle Seahawks
It's hard to picture the 49ers producing a more entertaining game than last week's win at New England, but this one could top it. The Seahawks are the hottest team in football, they're at home, and they're just as good as the 49ers in every facet of the game. Russell Wilson gets his chance to win the Rookie of the Year award on a national stage.
The pick: Seahawks.
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Previewing Week 15
Last week's predictions: 11/16
Season tally: 141/207, 68%
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears
The Bears are like the anti-Giants. Just like last year, they've gotten horrifically cold at precisely the wrong time. After winning seven of their first eight games, they've dropped four of five, including their most recent loss to Christian Ponder's Vikings. Jay Cutler is battling injuries and it's notable if he escapes a play without being knocked onto his back. And now they're underdogs to a Packers team that's within a stone's throw of the division title. It's do-or-die time, Chicago.
The pick: They refuse to die. Bears. This is not a pick based on reason.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
I did a double-take upon seeing this line. The Giants did, after all, embarrass the Falcons in the playoffs last year while the Falcons haven't exactly inspired confidence recently. Why are the Giants underdogs? Because road teams don't win in Atlanta.
The pick: Giants. Conventional wisdom being tossed out the window in Week 15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
There was a period of time, earlier in the season, where the Buccaneers would have been considered the superior team in this game. That, however, was before the Buccaneers lost to the Philadelphia Eagles. Losses to the Eagles cause paradigm shifts in how a team is judged.
The pick: Saints.
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (-3)
In each of the past two weeks, Adrian Peterson has rushed for more yards than Christian Ponder has thrown for. That can be interpreted either as praise for Peterson or an indictment of Ponder. There's no wrong answer.
The pick: Rams.
Washington Redskins (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns
Tricky game for the Redskins even if Robert Griffin is healthy. The Browns are on a sweet little three-game winning streak. Washington can't afford to lose.
The pick: Redskins.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
The state of football in Florida is, um, not good.
The pick: Dolphins.
Denver Broncos (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens' home spell was shattered by the Steelers in The Charlie Batch Game. They did, however, change offensive coordinators after last week's loss. Could be the thing that saves their season, or the thing that just reminds everyone that the real problem might-just-be-Joe-Flacco.
The pick: Broncos.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-9.5)
Texans desperately need a win, so it's tough to see the Colts pulling off the road upset. But the weekend after next, there's a rematch in Indianapolis. And the Texans shouldn't feel as good about that one.
The pick: Texans.
Carolina Panthers @ San Diego Chargers (-3)
It's the tragic tale of two very bad teams showing just enough late, meaningless life to possibly save the jobs of their incompetent coaches.
The pick: Panthers.
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) @ Buffalo Bills
Seattle's 58-0 pasting of the Arizona Cardinals wasn't talked about enough. It was domination of a magnitude usually only seen when Alabama plays Western Kentucky. The Seahawks ran for 284 yards. They forced 8 turnovers and only allowed 10 first downs. Three of Marshawn Lynch's eleven carries went for touchdowns. This all serves as just another reminder that the Cardinals beating the Patriots -- in Foxborough! -- back in Week 2 remains one of the more mystifying NFL results in recent memory.
The pick: Seahawks.
Detroit Lions (-6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
The Lions should be legitimately insulted that they aren't even favored by a touchdown against the team that just lost 58-0.
The pick: Lions.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
A nice showdown between two teams fighting desperately for their playoff lives. It seems like the Steelers always win games like this, and the Cowboys always lose them.
The pick: Steelers.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (-3)
Twice a year the Chiefs play the Raiders, and twice a year people have to pretend that it matters.
The pick: Chiefs.
San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots (-4.5)
The Patriots are scoring over 36 points a game; nobody else is averaging even 30. They just might be unstoppable, even for the 49ers vaunted defense.
The pick: Patriots.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-2)
Somehow, on Monday Night Football in Week 15 of the regular season, the two quarterbacks on television will be Mark Sanchez and Jake Locker. Seems less than ideal.
The pick: Titans.
Season tally: 141/207, 68%
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears
The Bears are like the anti-Giants. Just like last year, they've gotten horrifically cold at precisely the wrong time. After winning seven of their first eight games, they've dropped four of five, including their most recent loss to Christian Ponder's Vikings. Jay Cutler is battling injuries and it's notable if he escapes a play without being knocked onto his back. And now they're underdogs to a Packers team that's within a stone's throw of the division title. It's do-or-die time, Chicago.
The pick: They refuse to die. Bears. This is not a pick based on reason.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
I did a double-take upon seeing this line. The Giants did, after all, embarrass the Falcons in the playoffs last year while the Falcons haven't exactly inspired confidence recently. Why are the Giants underdogs? Because road teams don't win in Atlanta.
The pick: Giants. Conventional wisdom being tossed out the window in Week 15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
There was a period of time, earlier in the season, where the Buccaneers would have been considered the superior team in this game. That, however, was before the Buccaneers lost to the Philadelphia Eagles. Losses to the Eagles cause paradigm shifts in how a team is judged.
The pick: Saints.
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (-3)
In each of the past two weeks, Adrian Peterson has rushed for more yards than Christian Ponder has thrown for. That can be interpreted either as praise for Peterson or an indictment of Ponder. There's no wrong answer.
The pick: Rams.
Washington Redskins (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns
Tricky game for the Redskins even if Robert Griffin is healthy. The Browns are on a sweet little three-game winning streak. Washington can't afford to lose.
The pick: Redskins.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
The state of football in Florida is, um, not good.
The pick: Dolphins.
Denver Broncos (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens' home spell was shattered by the Steelers in The Charlie Batch Game. They did, however, change offensive coordinators after last week's loss. Could be the thing that saves their season, or the thing that just reminds everyone that the real problem might-just-be-Joe-Flacco.
The pick: Broncos.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-9.5)
Texans desperately need a win, so it's tough to see the Colts pulling off the road upset. But the weekend after next, there's a rematch in Indianapolis. And the Texans shouldn't feel as good about that one.
The pick: Texans.
Carolina Panthers @ San Diego Chargers (-3)
It's the tragic tale of two very bad teams showing just enough late, meaningless life to possibly save the jobs of their incompetent coaches.
The pick: Panthers.
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) @ Buffalo Bills
Seattle's 58-0 pasting of the Arizona Cardinals wasn't talked about enough. It was domination of a magnitude usually only seen when Alabama plays Western Kentucky. The Seahawks ran for 284 yards. They forced 8 turnovers and only allowed 10 first downs. Three of Marshawn Lynch's eleven carries went for touchdowns. This all serves as just another reminder that the Cardinals beating the Patriots -- in Foxborough! -- back in Week 2 remains one of the more mystifying NFL results in recent memory.
The pick: Seahawks.
Detroit Lions (-6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
The Lions should be legitimately insulted that they aren't even favored by a touchdown against the team that just lost 58-0.
The pick: Lions.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
A nice showdown between two teams fighting desperately for their playoff lives. It seems like the Steelers always win games like this, and the Cowboys always lose them.
The pick: Steelers.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (-3)
Twice a year the Chiefs play the Raiders, and twice a year people have to pretend that it matters.
The pick: Chiefs.
San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots (-4.5)
The Patriots are scoring over 36 points a game; nobody else is averaging even 30. They just might be unstoppable, even for the 49ers vaunted defense.
The pick: Patriots.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-2)
Somehow, on Monday Night Football in Week 15 of the regular season, the two quarterbacks on television will be Mark Sanchez and Jake Locker. Seems less than ideal.
The pick: Titans.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Previewing Week 14
Last week's predictions: 10/16
Season tally: 130/191, 68%
Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Here's a summary of what the Baltimore Ravens (Super Bowl contenders, mind you) did last Sunday:
A) they lost
B) at home
C) to the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose quarterback was third-stringer Charlie Batch, the oldest non-kicker in the NFL
D) and the Ravens' best player, Ray Rice, did not touch the football in the fourth quarter.
The pick: There's no way I would ever pick this team to beat Robert Griffin III right now. Redskins.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
The annual "Which Sports Town Does God Hate More?" Bowl.
The pick: Browns.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Hm, let's see. West Coast team on a four-game losing streak with a lame duck coach flying east for a 1:00 PM game to face perhaps the best pass defense in football. Seriously, good luck with that, San Diego.
The pick: Steelers.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
The Colts had unquestionably the worst roster in football last season en route to a league-worst 2-14 record. Now, a win this week against the Titans puts the Colts at 9-4, all but locking up a playoff berth. Amazing.
The pick: Colts.
New York Jets (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
And you probably thought that Browns-Chiefs was a lock for ugliest game of the week.
The pick: Jets.
Chicago Bears (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson is averaging over 120 yards per game. If he ups that average to 140 over his final four games, he'll break the all-time record for rushing yards in a season. This guy tore his ACL and MCL a year ago.
The pick: If only Peterson had some help. Bears.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ Carolina Panthers
The 11-1 Falcons have been the luckiest team in football so far, winning an unlikely number of close games. Their Week 4 victory at home over the Panthers, for instance, required a 40-yard field goal as time expired. There's upset potential here.
The pick: Falcons.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
Since taking over as the Eagles' starting running back, Bryce Brown has been a revelation. The former seventh-round pick has rushed for 347 yards and four touchdowns in just two games. Brown's breakout performance hasn't mattered much though; the Eagles' defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 16 touchdowns -- without a single interception -- over the past six games.
The pick: Buccaneers.
St. Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills (-3)
Apparently, the Rams only show up when they're on the West Coast. They're 4-0 (plus a tie) against their division rivals in the NFC West, but 1-6 against everyone else.
The pick: Bills.
Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Cowboys have DeMarco Murray back in the fold and Dez Bryant is finally living up to the hype. Dallas is also just a game behind the Giants in the NFC East. It's Tony Romo in a must-win road game in December; what could possibly go wrong?!?
The pick: Cowboys, before I have time to really think about that last statement.
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-10)
Here's a simple little timeline:
-->Rams tie 49ers
-->Rams lose to Jets, make Mark Sanchez look good
-->Rams beat 49ers
So do the Rams just have the 49ers' number, or is San Francisco phenomenally overrated? If it's the former, then they'd better pummel the Dolphins at home to prove it.
The pick: 49ers.
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (-5)
Will the Giants show up? It's become a weekly mystery. Fortunately for them, Drew Brees has been off his game recently, having thrown seven interceptions against just three touchdowns in his last two contests.
The pick: Giants.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-10)
This season, the Seahawks have now beaten the Bears, the Patriots, and the Packers. All of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. They have just one fewer win than the mighty 49ers. Given how well Russell Wilson has played, I can't think of a potential playoff matchup I'd be more interested in seeing than one involving the Seahawks at home.
The pick: Seahawks.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-10)
At one point last week, the Lions' mathematical probability of beating the Colts sat at 99%. Then they allowed Andrew Luck to score two impossibly late touchdowns, one of which happened on 4th down as time expired. Nobody can top the Lions when it comes to finding new ways to lose.
The pick: Packers.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
A Monday night game with implications for home-field advantage and AFC bragging rights. It's tough to see how the Texans can pull this off on the road. Their defense has slipped in recent weeks and the offense might not be good enough to match Tom Brady if a shootout develops.
The pick: Patriots.
Season tally: 130/191, 68%
Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Here's a summary of what the Baltimore Ravens (Super Bowl contenders, mind you) did last Sunday:
A) they lost
B) at home
C) to the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose quarterback was third-stringer Charlie Batch, the oldest non-kicker in the NFL
D) and the Ravens' best player, Ray Rice, did not touch the football in the fourth quarter.
The pick: There's no way I would ever pick this team to beat Robert Griffin III right now. Redskins.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
The annual "Which Sports Town Does God Hate More?" Bowl.
The pick: Browns.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Hm, let's see. West Coast team on a four-game losing streak with a lame duck coach flying east for a 1:00 PM game to face perhaps the best pass defense in football. Seriously, good luck with that, San Diego.
The pick: Steelers.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
The Colts had unquestionably the worst roster in football last season en route to a league-worst 2-14 record. Now, a win this week against the Titans puts the Colts at 9-4, all but locking up a playoff berth. Amazing.
The pick: Colts.
New York Jets (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
And you probably thought that Browns-Chiefs was a lock for ugliest game of the week.
The pick: Jets.
Chicago Bears (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson is averaging over 120 yards per game. If he ups that average to 140 over his final four games, he'll break the all-time record for rushing yards in a season. This guy tore his ACL and MCL a year ago.
The pick: If only Peterson had some help. Bears.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ Carolina Panthers
The 11-1 Falcons have been the luckiest team in football so far, winning an unlikely number of close games. Their Week 4 victory at home over the Panthers, for instance, required a 40-yard field goal as time expired. There's upset potential here.
The pick: Falcons.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
Since taking over as the Eagles' starting running back, Bryce Brown has been a revelation. The former seventh-round pick has rushed for 347 yards and four touchdowns in just two games. Brown's breakout performance hasn't mattered much though; the Eagles' defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 16 touchdowns -- without a single interception -- over the past six games.
The pick: Buccaneers.
St. Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills (-3)
Apparently, the Rams only show up when they're on the West Coast. They're 4-0 (plus a tie) against their division rivals in the NFC West, but 1-6 against everyone else.
The pick: Bills.
Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Cowboys have DeMarco Murray back in the fold and Dez Bryant is finally living up to the hype. Dallas is also just a game behind the Giants in the NFC East. It's Tony Romo in a must-win road game in December; what could possibly go wrong?!?
The pick: Cowboys, before I have time to really think about that last statement.
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-10)
Here's a simple little timeline:
-->Rams tie 49ers
-->Rams lose to Jets, make Mark Sanchez look good
-->Rams beat 49ers
So do the Rams just have the 49ers' number, or is San Francisco phenomenally overrated? If it's the former, then they'd better pummel the Dolphins at home to prove it.
The pick: 49ers.
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (-5)
Will the Giants show up? It's become a weekly mystery. Fortunately for them, Drew Brees has been off his game recently, having thrown seven interceptions against just three touchdowns in his last two contests.
The pick: Giants.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-10)
This season, the Seahawks have now beaten the Bears, the Patriots, and the Packers. All of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. They have just one fewer win than the mighty 49ers. Given how well Russell Wilson has played, I can't think of a potential playoff matchup I'd be more interested in seeing than one involving the Seahawks at home.
The pick: Seahawks.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-10)
At one point last week, the Lions' mathematical probability of beating the Colts sat at 99%. Then they allowed Andrew Luck to score two impossibly late touchdowns, one of which happened on 4th down as time expired. Nobody can top the Lions when it comes to finding new ways to lose.
The pick: Packers.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
A Monday night game with implications for home-field advantage and AFC bragging rights. It's tough to see how the Texans can pull this off on the road. Their defense has slipped in recent weeks and the offense might not be good enough to match Tom Brady if a shootout develops.
The pick: Patriots.
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