Reminder: The Diamondbacks Did Something Really Stupid

If we've learned one thing from the first two weeks of the season, it's this: Justin Upton is most definitely a superstar.

In twelve games for the Braves, he's got 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored. He's already hit seven home runs (which leads the majors). His slugging percentage is an astronomical .891 -- exceeded only by The Great Chris Davis. His batting average is .348. He has as many three-hit games (3) as hitless games. Justin Upton is the biggest reason why the Braves have only lost one of their first twelve games and own the best record in baseball.

All of his contributions already add up to a Wins Above Replacement total of 1.3. There were a whopping 24 regular players in baseball last year who couldn't accumulate 1.3 WAR over the entire season, let alone 12 games. In other words, two weeks of 2013 Justin Upton have already been more valuable than Delmon Young's entire 2012 season, and the same goes for Kevin Youkilis, and Rickie Weeks, and Colby Rasmus. That's amazing. He's currently on pace for 17.5 WAR (which won't happen, because the single-season record for a position player is Babe Ruth at 14). But even if he finishes the season with half of that total -- say, 9 WAR -- that would be a hyper-elite season. Not a single player in baseball had 9 WAR last year, except for Mike Trout. As the best player on an excellent team, putting up ridiculous offensive numbers, Justin Upton would have to be considered the current frontrunner for the National League MVP Award.

That's not even the coolest thing about Justin Upton. The coolest thing about Justin Upton is that he's only 25 years old. It'll probably be years and years before he shows any sort of decline. In fact, since a player is thought to reach his peak at age 27, it's possible that the very best of Upton is yet to come -- a frightening concept for Atlanta's division rivals.

Do the Braves have to worry about their emerging superstar's contract situation? If this was the NFL, then absolutely. But this is baseball. Players can't demand a contract renegotiation. The Braves control Upton for the rest of 2013, all of 2014, and all of 2015. Those are his prime seasons -- ages 25, 26, and 27 -- the ones in which he'll likely provide the most value. There's no telling how much other teams would be willing to pay Upton for those years on the open market. The Braves, however, will pay him a grand total of just $38.5 million across all three seasons. In other words, that's just a third of what Josh Hamilton signed for during the offseason. And roughly half of what Nick Swisher signed for. Considering Upton's contract (team-friendly), his age (young), his current production (awesome), and his ceiling (maybe-even-more-awesome), the Braves have one of the best assets in all of baseball.

Yet just a few months ago, it was the Arizona Diamondbacks, not the Braves, who were in possession of Upton. They traded him to Atlanta in January for three non-elite prospects, a pitcher who might be a fourth or fifth starter someday, and one season of a solid-but-unspectacular third baseman named Martin Prado. Calling that a swindling would be an understatement. It would be far more accurate to say that the Braves raided the Diamondbacks' village, slaughtered their cattle, burned down their dwellings, stuffed Justin Upton into a burlap sack, and stole away into the night. The first two weeks of the season have taught us that Justin Upton is a tremendously talented baseball player, but they've also taught us that the Arizona Diamondbacks made an unforgivably dismal trade.

Brandon Webb Was Really Good At Baseball

The wonderful site at BaseballReference.com offers a nifty stat called ERA+. It adjusts a pitcher's Earned Run Average to account for his context (league and ballpark), which allows us to more accurately compare pitchers from different eras. If we just used raw ERA all the time, well, we'd think Smoky Joe Wood and Eddie Plank were the greatest pitchers who ever lived just because they were around during the low-scoring dead-ball era of the early-20th century.

Brandon Webb is tied for the 11th-best ERA+ of all time. Remove from consideration any pitcher who debuted before 1920, and Webb moves up to seventh. Remove from consideration any relief pitcher, and Webb moves up to fourth. In other words, the only modern starting pitchers with a better ERA+ than Brandon Webb are Pedro Martinez, Lefty Grove, and Roger Clemens. That's it.

Why does he rank so highly? Because his career ERA was a stellar 3.27 across more than 1,300 innings, and he pitched in Arizona's Chase Field, a hitter-friendly park, and he did so between 2003 and 2008, a hitter-friendly era. Across that span, his ERA was second-best in all of baseball, behind only Johan Santana and tied with Roy Halladay. He won the Cy Young in 2006, finished second for the award in 2007, and finished second again in 2008. Unlike traditional aces, his secret was groundballs, not strikeouts. When a hitter put a ball into play against Brandon Webb, it was a groundball almost two-thirds of the time, an absurd rate. He was so ruthlessly effective at inducing harmless groundouts that for his career, he held opposing right-handed batters to a pathetic .213/.267/.292 line. That's approximately the same as what batters hit against Sandy Koufax.

Unfortunately, Brandon Webb is a non-factor in baseball these days despite still being just 33 years old. In fact, he retired last week, to little fanfare (and he was upstaged a bit by a similar announcement from Chris Carpenter). All of this happened because on Opening Day of the 2009 season, he was forced to leave his start after only four innings, and he would never throw another major league pitch again. He was diagnosed with right shoulder bursitis, went on the Disabled List the next day, and underwent season-ending surgery in August. Setbacks kept him from returning in 2010 and a comeback attempt in 2011 was derailed by rotator cuff surgery. He finally gave up last week. His shoulder just stopped working.

What makes Webb's demise so unexpected is that he doesn't fit the profile of a high-injury-risk pitcher. He didn't over-exert his arm to light up the radar gun; on the contrary, his primary pitch was his sinker, which rarely even exceeded 90 miles per hour. It's not like he was Mark Prior or Kerry Wood. And he was a model of consistency before the injury struck, essentially never missing a start. He was the Justin Verlander or C.C. Sabathia of his day, one of the last guys you'd pick to suddenly break down.

Webb serves as a reminder of the cruel fickleness of pitching injuries. At the age of 30, he was on pace to become one of the most dominant pitchers ever. At the age of 33, he's retiring from the game without anyone really noticing. Throwing a baseball is one of the more unnatural physical activities humans have ever dreamed up, and doing it 100 times every five days has consequences we don't really understand. Some people, like Chris Carpenter, have an uncanny ability to recover from seemingly-damning diagnoses enough times to cobble together a memorable career. Others, like Brandon Webb, go from durable iron man to spectator in the space of about four innings, because their arms just fall off and that's the end of that. Granted, Webb doesn't need much sympathy, because he made over $30 million during his playing days. I just wonder how much of that he'd be willing to give back in exchange for a healthy right shoulder.

Uptons in the Outfield

Apparently, the Atlanta Braves were really inspired by John and Jim Harbaugh.

Entering the offseason, the team was in need of two outfielders. In November, they filled one of those holes by signing B.J. Upton to a five-year contract. Then, this Thursday, they completed the set by trading for B.J.'s younger brother Justin, rescuing him from the clutches of the clueless Arizona Diamondbacks.

Two siblings playing on the same team is not unprecedented. But a duo like the Uptons is unique. Most of the time, baseball genes are inequitably distributed within families, creating huge and sometimes-hilarious gaps in talent between brothers: Cal and Billy Ripken, Jason and Jeremy Giambi, Roberto and Sandy Alomar. The Uptons, though, are both oozing with rare five-tool athleticism -- and rather appropriately, their career paths are remarkably similar.

B.J. was the second overall pick back in the 2002 MLB Draft. Justin was selected three years later, but he one-upped his older brother by becoming the first overall selection. Both were picked right out of high school by expansion teams: B.J. became a Devil Ray, Justin a Diamondback. Both began their careers as shortstops before moving to the outfield. Scouting reports on both brothers were equally glowing, to the extent that, years later, they're still virtually interchangeable:

"Scouts compare Upton to a young Derek Jeter, right down to the swagger. Upton is further along in his development than Jeter at a comparable age. He's more physically mature than Jeter, who developed his physique in pro ball, and has better power."

"One would be hard-pressed to find a more advanced high school hitter than Upton. Upton has a lightning-quick bat, exciting power potential, and outstanding plate patience ... 

Likening him to the pre-Cincinnati Reds Ken Griffey, Jr., many scouts and experts have said that ... Upton has seemingly no ceiling. He has all the makings of one of baseball's next elite players."

Both B.J.and Justin delivered on their massive promise at a young age. B.J. made his major league debut as a 19-year-old. During his first full season in 2007, when he was still just 22, he blossomed into a remarkable player, hitting .300/.386/.508 with 24 home runs and 22 stolen bases. The following year, B.J.helped the Rays reach the franchise's first-ever World Series by hitting seven home runs in his first 11 playoff games.

Justin also made his major league debut at 19. And like his brother, it didn't take long for him to begin fulfilling his potential. In 2009, as a 21-year-old, Justin posted a .899 OPS with 26 home runs and 20 steals. In 2011, he finished fourth in the MVP race with a similarly excellent season: a .898 OPS, 31 home runs, 21 steals, 39 doubles, and 105 runs scored. He helped the Diamondbacks win an unexpected division title. He was still only 23. Like B.J. after 2007, Justin appeared on the verge of superstardom.

Unfortunately, both brothers suffered falls from grace after their breakout seasons. B.J. has never again replicated his 2007 campaign. His OPS totals have declined into the mid-.700s for the last three seasons. Similarly, Justin's 2012 was a step backwards from 2011. His slugging percentage dropped to .430 and he only hit 17 home runs as he battled a power-sapping thumb injury.

Thanks to the frustrating ebbs and flows of their respective careers, B.J. and Justin have both been subject to unfair accusations and nasty rumors in recent years. B.J.'s failure to repeat his 2007 excellence has led to some outsiders questioning his work ethic and competitive drive. Justin's inconsistent 2012 landed him on the trading block, and the Diamondbacks spent most of the last calendar year trying to deal him away. Those efforts became very public -- the club's owner, Ken Kendrick, even went on the radio in July and expressed his frustration with Justin, calling him an "enigma." The expectations for the Uptons have been set so extraordinarily high that unless they become Derek Jeter and Ken Griffey Jr., they will forever be deemed disappointments.

Given how eerily similar their baseball careers have been, the Uptons' reunion in Atlanta is entirely fitting. The concept of synergy doesn't really exist in baseball, but who knows -- now that the brothers have been given a fresh start, and they're playing together in the same outfield, maybe their performance jointly improves. The Braves are certainly hoping for something of that effect. They've invested a sizable portion of their resources in the Upton family. To acquire Justin, they had to trade away their Opening Day third baseman, Martin Prado, as well as several other prospects. Signing B.J. required a $75 million commitment over the next five years and the sacrifice of a first-round draft pick. It's a massive gamble on two players whose careers to this point could generously be described as "up and down."

It's also a gamble worth taking. B.J. is still only 28 years old. He's in the middle of his prime and it's very possible that he hasn't even had his best season yet. Justin? He's just 25, and now that he's a year removed from his thumb injury (and free of that toxic environment in Arizona), some MVP-caliber seasons are not out of the question. With the Uptons manning left and center, and 23-year-old budding star Jason Heyward in right, the Braves are now in possession of the best outfield in baseball. Those three could become the outfield version of Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz. And even if they don't, they still compose one of the most exciting young cores in the entire league. By accumulating all of this talent, the Braves have once again set themselves up for years of success. They'll go as far as the Uptons take them. Which could be a very great distance.

Diamondbacks Make a Trade, Confuse People

Lots of baseball players had miserable seasons in 2012. Immediately, Michael Young, Jeff Francoeur, Ricky Romero, and the Boston Red Sox come to mind. But no one had a rougher season than Heath Bell. The Miami Marlins gave him a $27 million contract to serve as their closer. By mid-May, Bell had blown four of his seven save opportunities, his ERA was hovering around 10.00, and he was temporarily demoted from the closer role six weeks into a three-year contract. He permanently lost his job as closer in July. He finished 2012 with an ERA of 5.09. As a relief pitcher. At the end of the season, Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen actually went on the radio and said flat-out that he had lost respect for Bell as a person. According to a report, a few Marlins played that radio interview on full volume in the team clubhouse so that Bell could hear his manager call him out in front of the entire team. One of the more tragic and awkward things you'll see in baseball.

So naturally, the Arizona Diamondbacks thought it would be a swell idea to trade for Heath Bell.

Granted, it's not an awful idea. There's hope (somewhere, I guess) that Bell will find himself again once the Marlins stink has worn off. Miami is helping out by kicking in $8 million of the $21 million still owed to Bell (this is how desperate they are to ship Bell out of town). And it's not like the D'Backs gave up anything of note to acquire the embattled closer. But Bell's strikeout-to-walk ratio has declined for three straight seasons, and he's 35 years old. $13 million over two years seems like a lot of money to gamble on a middle reliever in his mid-30's coming off an embarrassing season. So...meh. There have been better deals, there have been worse deals.

Unfortunately, this wasn't the only component of Arizona's trade.

It was actually a three-team swap, with the Oakland Athletics taking part. The A's sent two players to the Diamondbacks: infielder Cliff Pennington and minor leaguer Yordy Cabrera (basically a warm body). The D'Backs then sent Cabrera to Miami for Bell and the $8 million. In exchange for Pennington and Cabrera, the D'Backs sent Chris Young to Oakland.

Heath Bell, Cliff Pennington, Yordy Cabrera, Chris Young. Embattled 35-year old reliever, light-hitting utility infielder, no-name minor leaguer, former-All Star center-fielder. One of these things is not like the other.

Chris Young is 29 years old. For his career, he has averaged 20 home runs and 20 steals per season while playing solid defense in center field. Regardless of his low batting averages (career .249 hitter) and high strikeout totals, Young is a valuable player with that coveted power-speed combination at a premium defensive position.

Why did the Diamondbacks trade away a solid everyday center-fielder for a near-replacement-level infielder and an expensive, potentially-awful middle reliever? Because Arizona had too many outfielders on the roster; someone had to go, they decided. But that doesn't explain or justify the meager return for Young. The D'Backs didn't even save money in the deal: they moved around $10 million off the books by trading away Young, which was negated by taking on Bell's $13 million. Sure, the Diamondbacks may be able to replace Young's production from within; the failure was flipping him for so little in return without even saving money. The fact that this trade was finalized so early in the trading season suggests that Arizona didn't exactly shop Young around the league to find the best offer before pulling the trigger with the A's and Marlins.

From Oakland's perspective, the trade is a smashing success. Cliff Pennington can be replaced in the middle infield, probably by Stephen Drew, who's a better player anyway. Chris Young perfectly fits Oakland's new organizational philosophy of pursuing players with power, speed, and defense. Furthermore, there's reason to believe Young can improve on his subpar 2012. He was hitting a scorching .410/.500/.897 in April before colliding with an outfield wall and possibly separating his shoulder, usually a three-month injury. Young surprisingly returned to the lineup after just a month's absence and proceeded to slump to a .143 average until the All-Star Break. From the All-Star Break until the end of the season, Young bounced back to a .261/.327/.471 line. It seems fair to hypothesize that his season numbers were pulled down by that nagging shoulder injury. He'll be fine.

Plus, there's no long-term risk for Oakland. Young will cost $8 million in 2013. If he has a good season, the A's can exercise a 2014 option for $11 million. If he's terrible, they can opt out of the contract with a $1.5 million buyout. The downside is limited to one season and the potential benefit could extend into 2014. It's a nice example of Oakland's willingness to spend some money in the wake of its surprising playoff appearance.

Between Young, Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, and Seth Smith, the A's now have five starting-caliber outfielders on the roster. The Diamondbacks had similar outfield depth, but chose to trade it away to place a $13 million bet on Heath Bell. That difference in front office decision-making is one of the reasons why the Diamondbacks are coming off a .500 season while the Athletics won the best division in baseball on a shoestring budget.

MLB Season Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Last year's stunning turnaround has transformed the Diamondbacks into the NL West's most complete team and a World Series contender.

This man once hit a broken-bat home run.

Offense: Three budding stars compose the middle of the D'backs' lineup. Justin Upton is the franchise player who will begin putting up MVP-type numbers once he gets over a nagging thumb injury. In the early goings, only Matt Kemp is off to a hotter start than Chris Young, who's slugging at an impossible .897 rate with five homers. Behind the plate, Miguel Montero is one of the best offensive players at his position. The rest of this deep roster is filled with quality role players. Ryan Roberts and Aaron Hill were pleasant surprises last year, and Willie Bloomquist will fill in as Stephen Drew recovers from his ankle injury. Two interesting platoons to watch will be in left field, where the bat of Jason Kubel is competing with the glove of Gerardo Parra, and first base, where the incredible raw power of Paul Goldschmidt is paired with the corpse of Lyle Overbay.

The official term for the type of trade that sent Daniel Hudson
to Arizona for Edwin Jackson is: Highway Robbery.

Pitching: Arizona's depth and balance extend to its rotation and bullpen. Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson will continue to be effective top-of-the-rotation guys even if they don't repeat their 2011 breakout numbers. Trevor Cahill, the big addition, won't be bothered much by the move from Oakland to Chase Field thanks to his groundball tendencies. Joe Saunders is quite mediocre and Josh Collmenter looks like a bullpen arm, but the Diamondbacks have one of the game's most exciting young righties in the minors, Trevor Bauer, who is nearly major league-ready. And it won't even be a problem if the rather-flimsy back of the rotation puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen. GM Kevin Towers has done an impressive job rebuilding a once-terrible 'pen in a fascinating variety of different ways: free agency (J.J. Putz, Takashi Saito), trades (David Hernandez, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow), the Rule 5 draft (Joe Paterson), and the minors (Bryan Shaw).

Some think Trevor Bauer was the best prospect in last year's
draft, and some think his arm is due to fall off any day now.

Breakout Candidates: He'll strike out a lot and won't ever hit for a high average, but Paul Goldschmidt has a chance to crack the 30-homer plateau if he can hold off Lyle Overbay for at-bats. He hit eight homers in the final two months of 2011. The organization's ultimate wild card is Trevor Bauer, one of Arizona's first round picks last year whose unorthodox style provokes comparisons to Tim Lincecum. Bauer is ironing out his command in Double-A and will be one of the first arms called upon if (when?) Josh Collmenter gets bumped to the bullpen.

3 Key Questions: Can Kennedy and Hudson replicate their 2011 numbers? Is there enough offensive punch in the infield? And when does Bauer get his first chance?

Best Case Scenario: Justin Upton is this year's Matt Kemp, Stephen Drew comes back healthy, Bauer's debut is Strasburgian, and the Diamondbacks ride elite pitching and timely hitting to another World Series title.

Worst Case Scenario: Kennedy and Hudson take a step back, Putz succumbs to injury once again, Goldschmidt and Bauer are disappointing, and 2011 proves to be a mirage as the D'backs fall back into the middle of the NL West pack.

Predicted Finish: The Diamondbacks seemingly have it all: strong starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen, few holes in the lineup, and useful depth. They're the best team in the NL West and will be a serious contender for the pennant.