1. ARIZONA (21-0): With ten minutes to play in Wednesday's game at Stanford, Arizona was trailing by a score of 53-49. They ended up winning 60-57. So over the final ten minutes, Arizona's defense only surrendered four total points and forced Stanford to miss all but one of its final 13 shots. That'll work.
2. KANSAS (16-4): Another week, another win over a ranked opponent. By completing a season sweep over Iowa State, the Jayhawks remained undefeated in the Big 12. More bad news for everybody else: in his last two games, Andrew Wiggins has scored a combined 46 points on 18-of-29 shooting from the field.
3. SYRACUSE (19-0): Just like Arizona, Syracuse used stifling defense to avoid a potential upset on the road. The Orange were losing to Miami with eight minutes remaining, but only surrendered one field goal the rest of the game to pull out the win.
4. FLORIDA (18-2): Now on a twelve-game winning streak. What's really impressive about this team is the fact that five different players are averaging at least ten points per game. And the Gators could add to that depth thanks to news that forward Chris Walker -- one of the many highly-touted members of this year's freshman class -- has finally been cleared to play.
5. WICHITA STATE (22-0): In lieu of a comment, a dunk is worth a thousand words:
6. MICHIGAN STATE (19-2): Down two starters, the Spartans still had a solid week by beating Iowa on the road after losing to Michigan. The NCAA Tournament will be significantly better if this team is fully healthy when the time comes.
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (18-1): Where did this come from? In the preseason, San Diego State was picked to finish fourth in a mediocre Mountain West conference. The Aztecs have now won seventeen straight games since losing to Arizona back on November 14th. They're single-handedly making the bland Mountain West Conference relevant.
8. DUKE (17-4): For much of the season, the Blue Devils have been a fairly awful defensive and rebounding team. But then they suddenly collected a whopping 27 offensive rebounds against Florida State, and unleashed an excellent defensive performance against a good Pittsburgh offense. If Duke has improved even marginally in those two areas, to go along with its already-elite offense ... look out.
9. MICHIGAN (16-4): Maybe the hottest team in sports right now. Over the past week, Michigan has beaten Wisconsin (then ranked #3 in the country), Iowa (#10), and Michigan State (#3). Two of those games were on the road. The Wolverines' offense has become unstoppable -- Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III are future pros, and Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert have emerged as reliable secondary options. After starting the season with a dubious 6-4 record and losing Mitch McGary to back surgery, Michigan has won ten straight and launched itself to the top of the Big 10 standings. An unbelievable turnaround.
10. CINCINNATI (20-2): On Thursday night, Cincinnati built a 17-point lead at Louisville, blew all of it, and then won anyway. That impressive 69-66 victory kept the Bearcats undefeated in league play and cements their status as the best team in the American Athletic Conference. Much like San Diego State, Cincinnati has vastly outperformed meager expectations behind dominant defensive play and an extended winning streak (no losses since early December). It's not pretty, but these guys are methodically grinding out wins.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#24 Ohio State at #14 Wisconsin, 12:00 PM Saturday
Three weeks ago, Ohio State was the #3 team in the country, and Wisconsin was #4. Remarkably, they've combined to win just two of their last eleven games. On Wednesday, Ohio State lost at home to Penn State and Wisconsin lost at home to Northwestern. Not too long ago, those results would have been unthinkable. Both of these teams desperately need to stop the bleeding.
#17 Duke at #2 Syracuse, 6:30 PM Saturday
Obviously a huge and well-hyped game, one that will include multiple first-round draft picks, two Hall of Fame coaches, and an undefeated record on the line.
#1 Arizona at California, 10:30 PM Saturday
Arizona has been somewhat vulnerable recently and Cal has both the talent and the desperation to pull off the colossal upset. Maaaaybe.
Virginia at #18 Pittsburgh, 12:30 PM Sunday
It's shaping up to be a character-defining weekend in the ACC. If Duke-Syracuse features the two best teams in the conference, then Virginia-Pitt is a showdown between #3 and #4. Pitt needs this one badly -- after coming up short against Syracuse and Duke, the Panthers still haven't beaten a single team projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Their reputation is suddenly at stake here.
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Kentucky Gets Mugged, And Other Results From Tuesday
LSU 87, Kentucky 82
The final score doesn't exactly reflect this, but here's what happened: LSU cornered Kentucky in a dark alley, kicked it in the groin, and stole its wallet. LSU got out to an early 22-6 lead and spent virtually the entire second half up double-digits. And furious late rally by Kentucky came up short when the Wildcats inexplicably let the final seconds run off the clock without committing a foul. They were woeful throughout the game though, with the Harrison twins being the main culprits -- they combined for such just two total assists. Two. LSU isn't even that good. With two SEC losses already on its record, and two games against Florida still ahead, Kentucky probably ceded the conference title to Florida on Tuesday night.
Michigan State 71, Iowa 69 (OT)
A huge blown opportunity for Iowa. The Hawkeyes were the better team for much of the game against short-handed Michigan State. They made 19 more free throws than their opponent and were up by six with six minutes to play. But somehow one of the best offenses in the country managed to make only one field goal over the final 14 minutes of the game, enabling the Spartans sneak away with a win. Big kudos to Michigan State for winning a difficult road game despite missing its two leading rebounders.
Virginia 68, Notre Dame 53
All Virginia does is completely smother inferior competition. This was the Cavaliers' seventh victory in the ACC and they've won all of those games by at least 12 points (four of them by at least 20). Heading into a key road showdown with Pittsburgh on Sunday, Virginia is actually emerging as a darkhorse candidate to win the entire ACC. After Pitt, their remaining schedule looks like this: Boston College, at Georgia Tech, Maryland, at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, Syracuse, at Maryland. Every single one of those games is winnable. If Virginia keeps taking care of business against weak opponents, the ACC title could come down to that home showdown against Syracuse on March 1st.
West Virginia 66, Baylor 64
How To Lose An NCAA Tournament Bid In Three Weeks: The Baylor Story. Entering conference play, Baylor was 12-1 overall, ranked as the seventh-best team in the country according to the AP poll, including a win over Kentucky on a neutral floor. Since then, they've completely fallen apart. Baylor has lost six of its seven Big 12 games, culminating in this embarrassing home loss to West Virginia. And its next three matchups are all against ranked opponents (the Oklahoma schools and Kansas). After that difficult stretch, Baylor could easily be 1-9 in the Big 12 and 13-10 overall. This collapse speaks to the impressive depth in the Big 12 conference, which could send six of its ten members to the NCAA Tournament. Baylor will not be among them.
Wichita State 57, Loyola 45
Twenty-two wins, zero losses, and the undefeated dream remains alive.
The final score doesn't exactly reflect this, but here's what happened: LSU cornered Kentucky in a dark alley, kicked it in the groin, and stole its wallet. LSU got out to an early 22-6 lead and spent virtually the entire second half up double-digits. And furious late rally by Kentucky came up short when the Wildcats inexplicably let the final seconds run off the clock without committing a foul. They were woeful throughout the game though, with the Harrison twins being the main culprits -- they combined for such just two total assists. Two. LSU isn't even that good. With two SEC losses already on its record, and two games against Florida still ahead, Kentucky probably ceded the conference title to Florida on Tuesday night.
Michigan State 71, Iowa 69 (OT)
A huge blown opportunity for Iowa. The Hawkeyes were the better team for much of the game against short-handed Michigan State. They made 19 more free throws than their opponent and were up by six with six minutes to play. But somehow one of the best offenses in the country managed to make only one field goal over the final 14 minutes of the game, enabling the Spartans sneak away with a win. Big kudos to Michigan State for winning a difficult road game despite missing its two leading rebounders.
Virginia 68, Notre Dame 53
All Virginia does is completely smother inferior competition. This was the Cavaliers' seventh victory in the ACC and they've won all of those games by at least 12 points (four of them by at least 20). Heading into a key road showdown with Pittsburgh on Sunday, Virginia is actually emerging as a darkhorse candidate to win the entire ACC. After Pitt, their remaining schedule looks like this: Boston College, at Georgia Tech, Maryland, at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, Syracuse, at Maryland. Every single one of those games is winnable. If Virginia keeps taking care of business against weak opponents, the ACC title could come down to that home showdown against Syracuse on March 1st.
West Virginia 66, Baylor 64
How To Lose An NCAA Tournament Bid In Three Weeks: The Baylor Story. Entering conference play, Baylor was 12-1 overall, ranked as the seventh-best team in the country according to the AP poll, including a win over Kentucky on a neutral floor. Since then, they've completely fallen apart. Baylor has lost six of its seven Big 12 games, culminating in this embarrassing home loss to West Virginia. And its next three matchups are all against ranked opponents (the Oklahoma schools and Kansas). After that difficult stretch, Baylor could easily be 1-9 in the Big 12 and 13-10 overall. This collapse speaks to the impressive depth in the Big 12 conference, which could send six of its ten members to the NCAA Tournament. Baylor will not be among them.
Wichita State 57, Loyola 45
Twenty-two wins, zero losses, and the undefeated dream remains alive.
Friday, January 24, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: Raising Arizona
1. ARIZONA (19-0): The sorry Pac-12 seems content to simply roll out the red carpet for Arizona. Oregon, which went into January undefeated, has collapsed by losing five in a row. Colorado's best player tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Cal and UCLA have done little of note. Fortunately, Arizona already beefed up its NCAA Tournament résumé during nonconference play by defeating Duke, San Diego State, and Michigan, all away from home. The Wildcats are already a lock for a #1 seed, and it's not even February yet.
2. KANSAS (14-4): Ranking a four-loss Kansas team ahead of undefeated Syracuse has more to do with the bigger picture than just win-loss records. Kansas is simply the most talented team in the country. There's even a chance that this team will produce the top two picks in the NBA draft, much like Kentucky did in their national championship season with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. After playing the most grueling nonconference schedule in the country, Kansas has now won five consecutive Big 12 games against teams that are all projected to make the NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. And Sportsbook already lists Kansas as the favorite to win the championship, even ahead of Arizona.
3. SYRACUSE (18-0): Their only blemish is the fact that they've played just three true road games: against St. John's, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. The real tests will come during the final month of the season, when the Orange will travel to Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, and Florida State.
4. LOUISVILLE (17-3): Like Kansas, this aggressive Louisville ranking requires a little faith. The Cardinals have played a surprisingly weak schedule thanks to the end of the Big East; the new American Athletic Conference offers far fewer opportunities for signature victories. In fact, their win over Connecticut this week was perhaps their first victory against a team with a good chance to be in the NCAA Tournament. But at the same time, several significant pieces from last year's championship team are still around: Russ Smith, Luke Hancock, Montrezl Harrell, Wayne Blackshear, and of course, Rick Pitino. The defense is still elite. On Wednesday, Louisville was without its point guard for a road game at South Florida, and still won by the lopsided score of 86-47. How many teams could pull that off?
5. MICHIGAN STATE (18-1): Maybe the biggest wildcard in the top ten. When healthy, the Spartans could be the best team in the country. But they're never healthy. Adreian Payne and Gary Harris have missed games at different points this season, and now Branden Dawson will be out for a month after channeling the spirit of Kevin Brown and breaking a bone in his hand by slamming it on a table. It could be a while before Michigan State is back to full strength, and the Big 10 schedule is about to get rough, starting with a home game against streaking Michigan this weekend.
6. WICHITA STATE (20-0): On Wednesday, they were trailing by three at halftime at Illinois State. Then the Shockers won the second half by a 45-27 margin. Not much else to say at this point -- Wichita State will probably lose a game somewhere along the line, but you'll lose money by betting against them.
7. FLORIDA (16-2): One of Florida's two losses was at Wisconsin back on November 12th; the other came at the hands of a fluky buzzer-beater at Connecticut. Since that second defeat, they've beaten Kansas and won ten games in a row. Florida is so consistently good every year that it's almost a little boring. Blame the terrible SEC, which is yet again the usual two-horse race between the Gators and Kentucky.
8. SAN DIEGO STATE (17-1): On November 12th, the second game of the season, San Diego State lost at home to Arizona. They haven't lost since. Over that stretch, the Aztecs have won 16 consecutive games, including a victory at Kansas. They've become what Ohio State wanted to be: an elite defensive and rebounding team that scrapes together enough offense to beat everyone they play.
9. KENTUCKY (14-4): The fatal flaw has become obvious. Andrew Harrison is only shooting 38% from the floor. Aaron Harrison -- the "shooting" guard -- is making 30% of his three-pointers. James Young has taken 120 threes this season but makes just a third of them. Kentucky has more than enough talent to win a championship. They just can't shoot.
10. CREIGHTON (16-3): The exact opposite of Kentucky. All Creighton can do is shoot, and they do it better than anybody. Four players in their starting lineup shoot 44% or better from three-point range, led by 6-foot-7 "center" Ethan Wragge at 50%. That percentage is no small-sample-size fluke: of Wragge's 154 shot attempts this season, 148 have come from three-point range. But the best offense in the country owes most of its success to National Player of the Year favorite Doug McDermott, who's going to be the first three-time First-Team All-American since Patrick Ewing. He's averaging almost 25 points per game and shooting 50% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc, and 90% from the line. Yet despite all this, Creighton wasn't even ranked last week in either of the major top-25 polls. That ought to be addressed.
Key Game to Watch this Weekend:
#21 Michigan at #3 Michigan State, 7:00 PM Saturday
A month ago, Michigan looked dead in the water. The Wolverines started the season with four losses in their first 10 games and Mitch McGary was forced to undergo season-ending back surgery. But since a home loss to Arizona on December 14th, Michigan has won eight in a row, including victories over Wisconsin (#3 in the country at the time) and Iowa (#10) to preserve a perfect 6-0 record in the Big 10. Nik Stauskas is doing a pretty good McDermott impression, scoring 18.5 points per game and shooting 49% from the field, including 44% from three-point range. Michigan State will be vulnerable on Saturday with Branden Dawson and potentially Adreian Payne unable to play. Michigan will have a perfect opportunity to steal a road game against a top-three team and claim sole possession of first place in the Big 10.
2. KANSAS (14-4): Ranking a four-loss Kansas team ahead of undefeated Syracuse has more to do with the bigger picture than just win-loss records. Kansas is simply the most talented team in the country. There's even a chance that this team will produce the top two picks in the NBA draft, much like Kentucky did in their national championship season with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. After playing the most grueling nonconference schedule in the country, Kansas has now won five consecutive Big 12 games against teams that are all projected to make the NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. And Sportsbook already lists Kansas as the favorite to win the championship, even ahead of Arizona.
3. SYRACUSE (18-0): Their only blemish is the fact that they've played just three true road games: against St. John's, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. The real tests will come during the final month of the season, when the Orange will travel to Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, and Florida State.
4. LOUISVILLE (17-3): Like Kansas, this aggressive Louisville ranking requires a little faith. The Cardinals have played a surprisingly weak schedule thanks to the end of the Big East; the new American Athletic Conference offers far fewer opportunities for signature victories. In fact, their win over Connecticut this week was perhaps their first victory against a team with a good chance to be in the NCAA Tournament. But at the same time, several significant pieces from last year's championship team are still around: Russ Smith, Luke Hancock, Montrezl Harrell, Wayne Blackshear, and of course, Rick Pitino. The defense is still elite. On Wednesday, Louisville was without its point guard for a road game at South Florida, and still won by the lopsided score of 86-47. How many teams could pull that off?
5. MICHIGAN STATE (18-1): Maybe the biggest wildcard in the top ten. When healthy, the Spartans could be the best team in the country. But they're never healthy. Adreian Payne and Gary Harris have missed games at different points this season, and now Branden Dawson will be out for a month after channeling the spirit of Kevin Brown and breaking a bone in his hand by slamming it on a table. It could be a while before Michigan State is back to full strength, and the Big 10 schedule is about to get rough, starting with a home game against streaking Michigan this weekend.
6. WICHITA STATE (20-0): On Wednesday, they were trailing by three at halftime at Illinois State. Then the Shockers won the second half by a 45-27 margin. Not much else to say at this point -- Wichita State will probably lose a game somewhere along the line, but you'll lose money by betting against them.
7. FLORIDA (16-2): One of Florida's two losses was at Wisconsin back on November 12th; the other came at the hands of a fluky buzzer-beater at Connecticut. Since that second defeat, they've beaten Kansas and won ten games in a row. Florida is so consistently good every year that it's almost a little boring. Blame the terrible SEC, which is yet again the usual two-horse race between the Gators and Kentucky.
8. SAN DIEGO STATE (17-1): On November 12th, the second game of the season, San Diego State lost at home to Arizona. They haven't lost since. Over that stretch, the Aztecs have won 16 consecutive games, including a victory at Kansas. They've become what Ohio State wanted to be: an elite defensive and rebounding team that scrapes together enough offense to beat everyone they play.
9. KENTUCKY (14-4): The fatal flaw has become obvious. Andrew Harrison is only shooting 38% from the floor. Aaron Harrison -- the "shooting" guard -- is making 30% of his three-pointers. James Young has taken 120 threes this season but makes just a third of them. Kentucky has more than enough talent to win a championship. They just can't shoot.
10. CREIGHTON (16-3): The exact opposite of Kentucky. All Creighton can do is shoot, and they do it better than anybody. Four players in their starting lineup shoot 44% or better from three-point range, led by 6-foot-7 "center" Ethan Wragge at 50%. That percentage is no small-sample-size fluke: of Wragge's 154 shot attempts this season, 148 have come from three-point range. But the best offense in the country owes most of its success to National Player of the Year favorite Doug McDermott, who's going to be the first three-time First-Team All-American since Patrick Ewing. He's averaging almost 25 points per game and shooting 50% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc, and 90% from the line. Yet despite all this, Creighton wasn't even ranked last week in either of the major top-25 polls. That ought to be addressed.
Key Game to Watch this Weekend:
#21 Michigan at #3 Michigan State, 7:00 PM Saturday
A month ago, Michigan looked dead in the water. The Wolverines started the season with four losses in their first 10 games and Mitch McGary was forced to undergo season-ending back surgery. But since a home loss to Arizona on December 14th, Michigan has won eight in a row, including victories over Wisconsin (#3 in the country at the time) and Iowa (#10) to preserve a perfect 6-0 record in the Big 10. Nik Stauskas is doing a pretty good McDermott impression, scoring 18.5 points per game and shooting 49% from the field, including 44% from three-point range. Michigan State will be vulnerable on Saturday with Branden Dawson and potentially Adreian Payne unable to play. Michigan will have a perfect opportunity to steal a road game against a top-three team and claim sole possession of first place in the Big 10.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Can Wichita State Run The Table?
With more than half of the college basketball season in the books, only three teams have managed to navigate their schedules without suffering a loss thus far. The first two are Arizona and Syracuse, national title contenders from major conferences with future NBA players on their rosters. But neither of those blue-chip programs has nearly as good a chance of completing an undefeated season as the third school in this group: the 19-0 Wichita State Shockers.
The undefeated regular season hasn't been achieved since Saint Joseph's did it in 2004; if your definition of 'regular season' also includes conference tournaments, then UNLV was the last to pull it off in 1991. Those are the only two instances of undefeated seasons in the last 35 years, which speaks to the difficulty of winning 30-odd college basketball games in a row. But the two teams that did accomplish that feat both did it within minor conferences (Saint Joseph's from the Atlantic 10 and UNLV from the Big West), which is no coincidence given the relatively weaker quality of competition. Wichita State, of the Missouri Valley Conference, shares that inherent advantage.
For that reason, it's relatively safe to assume that Arizona and Syracuse are out of the running for a perfect season. Going undefeated on the road in major conferences like the Pac-12 and the ACC is a virtually impossible task nowadays. Syracuse still has to face away games at Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Florida State, along with two matchups against Duke. Arizona has a slightly easier path, but still faces four games against the league's second- and third- best teams (Cal and Oregon) as well as a tricky road trip to the Rocky Mountains (for Colorado and Utah). The odds of either team escaping league play without a loss are extremely slim, and that's not even taking conference tournaments into account.
Wichita State, on the other hand, has the benefit of the following schedule:
at Illinois State
at Drake
Loyola
Evansville
at Indiana State
at Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
at Evansville
at Loyola
Drake
at Bradley
Missouri State
Those twelve games will be followed by three more in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Odds are Wichita State won't beat all 15 of those opponents. But at the same time, the Shockers will be heavily favored against every single one of them. They've already played six league games and won five of them by 14 points or more. Their toughest remaining opponent is Indiana State, a team they pounded by 20 points just a few days ago. The chances of a perfect season are better than you think.
Yet maybe the most interesting question here isn't whether or not Wichita State can pull this off. Instead, it's "what happens if they do?" If their record is 34-0 when Selection Sunday rolls around, are they a legitimate candidate to receive a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament? On one hand, Wichita State's body of work isn't strong enough to deserve a top seed. The usually-solid teams they beat during the nonconference portion of the schedule have underperformed this season (like BYU and Davidson), deflating the value of those victories. And the quality of competition within the Missouri Valley is weak (it ranks as just the 11th-best conference according to RPI). Based strictly on résumé, it's hard to come up with an argument that justifies putting Wichita State on the top line even if the Shockers go undefeated. A decent comparison is the Murray State team from two years ago, which went into February undefeated and only lost one game during the regular season yet still ended up with a #6 seed thanks to a dearth of quality wins.
But even if Wichita State isn't technically deserving of a top seed, we still can't deny what we already know about this team. Regardless of what schools it has or hasn't beaten, it isn't an unknown quantity. Four of the team's five starters played at least 20 minutes in a tightly-contested Final Four game against eventual national champion Louisville less than a year ago. This season, the Shockers have defeated two SEC teams (Alabama on the road and Tennessee at home), as well as a nationally-ranked frontrunner in the Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis, on the road). Nine players on the roster are averaging double-digit minutes per game. Their three leading scorers are all averaging at least 13 points per game with efficient shooting numbers. Point guard Fred VanVleet is shooting 45% from three-point range and owns one of the best assist-to-turnover rates in the country. All told, the Shockers are a top-25 team nationally in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency, and only five other teams can make that same claim: Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and Villanova. Regardless of whether or not they complete the rare undefeated season or earn a #1 seed, come March, Wichita State will be a serious contender to reach a second consecutive Final Four.
But even if Wichita State isn't technically deserving of a top seed, we still can't deny what we already know about this team. Regardless of what schools it has or hasn't beaten, it isn't an unknown quantity. Four of the team's five starters played at least 20 minutes in a tightly-contested Final Four game against eventual national champion Louisville less than a year ago. This season, the Shockers have defeated two SEC teams (Alabama on the road and Tennessee at home), as well as a nationally-ranked frontrunner in the Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis, on the road). Nine players on the roster are averaging double-digit minutes per game. Their three leading scorers are all averaging at least 13 points per game with efficient shooting numbers. Point guard Fred VanVleet is shooting 45% from three-point range and owns one of the best assist-to-turnover rates in the country. All told, the Shockers are a top-25 team nationally in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency, and only five other teams can make that same claim: Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and Villanova. Regardless of whether or not they complete the rare undefeated season or earn a #1 seed, come March, Wichita State will be a serious contender to reach a second consecutive Final Four.
Friday, January 10, 2014
Reacting to the Hall of Fame Results
For the first time since 1999, a Hall of Fame class will feature three first-ballot selections. Compared to last year's lackluster results, this 2014 election cycle was a heartening development. But a closer examination of the percentages reveals some puzzling issues and inconsistencies.
Greg Maddux (97.2%): So we won't have a unanimous Hall of Fame selection until Mike Trout.
Tom Glavine (91.9%): He obviously deserves this honor, but hypothetically, if Glavine, Curt Schilling, and Mike Mussina had all played for the same team, Glavine would have been the third-best pitcher in that rotation.
Frank Thomas (83.7%): He spent more than half of his career games as a designated hitter and he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Edgar Martinez is confused.
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Craig Biggio (74.8%): Agonizingly, he fell just two votes short of making it. His induction is, and always has been, an inevitability -- so what is being accomplished by forcing him to wait another twelve months?
Mike Piazza (62.2%): He and Biggio were the only two holdover candidates to actually see their vote totals increase, so Piazza is headed in the right direction. He's the only player on this ballot besides the three inductees who actually got good news.
Jack Morris (61.5%): He falls off the ballot after exhausting his 15 years of eligibility. To some extent, this is just delaying the inevitable -- Morris is basically a lock to be inducted by the Veteran's Committee in a few years. But this way, the BBWAA's high standards.haven't been compromised. It's a win-win result: Morris will get his plaque without lowering the bar for future candidates.
Jeff Bagwell (54.3%): Ridiculously, support for Bagwell dropped by five percent. There is no proof that he ever used a banned substance. He never failed a drug test and wasn't mentioned in the Mitchell Report. So nearly half of the baseball writers appear willing to exclude a player from the Hall of Fame based on nothing but speculation and rumor. That's the most significant (and disappointing) takeaway from this year's voting.
Tim Raines (46.1%): Fell back under 50%, but he has eight more years of eligibility. Raines' case is gathering momentum.
Roger Clemens (35.4%): Even fewer votes than last year. So the people in charge of honoring the best players in the history of baseball are just flat-out refusing to honor two of the best players in the history of baseball.
Barry Bonds (34.7%): Apparently Barry Bonds did more to "damage the integrity of the sport" than Hall of Fame racists like Ty Cobb and Cap Anson, who helped perpetuate the segregationist policies that denied Satchel Paige and Oscar Charleston and Josh Gibson the right to play major league baseball.
Lee Smith (29.9%): Relief pitchers have the easiest job in baseball, so the Hall's standard at the position should be extremely high. Smith doesn't meet that standard.
Curt Schilling (29.2%): Twice the pitcher Jack Morris was; half the votes Jack Morris got.
Edgar Martinez (25.2%): The year Frank Thomas was elected on the first ballot, Martinez's support dropped by ten percentage points. Figure that one out.
Alan Trammell (20.8%): He deserves more than this. Trammell had a higher career on-base percentage than Cal Ripken Jr., Ernie Banks, and Robin Yount; he had eight excellent offensive seasons and was the league's best position player in 1987. He should be one of the most-debated candidates on the ballot. Instead, he's just a footnote.
Mike Mussina (20.3%): This result was the one most disconnected from reality. Why will it take Mussina a decade longer to reach Cooperstown than Glavine? There's no good answer to that question.
Jeff Kent (15.2%): Like Trammell, Kent was almost completely overlooked in this crowded field. He has a solid case, but those calling him the best offensive second baseman ever are incorrectly placing him ahead of Rogers Hornsby, Jackie Robinson, Nap Lajoie, and maybe even a few others.
Fred McGriff (11.7%): Very close, but only one season with an OPS over 1.000 during this hitter-friendly era? Not going to cut it at the first base position.
Mark McGwire (11.0%): He's the only notable name from the Steroid Era to openly admit the truth about his drug use. And he's being completely ignored by a voting bloc that claims to care about morality and character. What kind of message does that send?
Larry Walker (10.2%): His ludicrous 1997 season alone is worth 10.2% of the vote. The writers aren't doing their homework on Walker.
Don Mattingly (8.2%): On this stacked ballot, even 8.2% for Mattingly is too much.
Sammy Sosa (7.2%): Among the voters, his connections to performance-enhancing drugs render his 609 career homers irrelevant. But Sosa's exile isn't nearly the same as Bonds' or Clemens'. Though his peak was incredible, his cumulative performance was borderline at best for the Hall of Fame. His career OBP (.344), OPS (.878), and OPS+ (128) weren't elite for a corner outfielder in the Steroid Era who didn't provide much value away from the plate. Larry Walker, for example, easily bests Sosa in each of those three categories (.400, .965, 141) with a similar peak and better defense and baserunning. Sosa wouldn't be a slam-dunk candidate even if he had been clean.
Rafael Palmeiro (4.4%): Despite being one of only four players with at least 3,000 hits and 500 homers, Palmeiro has now fallen off the ballot entirely by receiving less than 5% of the vote, thanks to an infamous failed drug test. But like Sosa, Palmeiro might not be worthy of the Hall just based on performance alone. He never had a significant peak -- like McGriff, he only had one season with an OPS over 1.000. He played his entire career in hitter-friendly home ballparks. And his career OPS (.885) and OPS+ (132) aren't impressive relative to his contemporaries, especially at his position. It's too easy to name other first basemen and DHs from his era who were significantly better: Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Edgar Martinez, and Mark McGwire, for instance. Palmeiro is the perfect example of why arbitrary milestones like 3,000 hits and 500 homers should not be treated like magic numbers when it comes to the Hall of Fame.
Greg Maddux (97.2%): So we won't have a unanimous Hall of Fame selection until Mike Trout.
Tom Glavine (91.9%): He obviously deserves this honor, but hypothetically, if Glavine, Curt Schilling, and Mike Mussina had all played for the same team, Glavine would have been the third-best pitcher in that rotation.
Frank Thomas (83.7%): He spent more than half of his career games as a designated hitter and he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Edgar Martinez is confused.
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Craig Biggio (74.8%): Agonizingly, he fell just two votes short of making it. His induction is, and always has been, an inevitability -- so what is being accomplished by forcing him to wait another twelve months?
Mike Piazza (62.2%): He and Biggio were the only two holdover candidates to actually see their vote totals increase, so Piazza is headed in the right direction. He's the only player on this ballot besides the three inductees who actually got good news.
Jack Morris (61.5%): He falls off the ballot after exhausting his 15 years of eligibility. To some extent, this is just delaying the inevitable -- Morris is basically a lock to be inducted by the Veteran's Committee in a few years. But this way, the BBWAA's high standards.haven't been compromised. It's a win-win result: Morris will get his plaque without lowering the bar for future candidates.
Jeff Bagwell (54.3%): Ridiculously, support for Bagwell dropped by five percent. There is no proof that he ever used a banned substance. He never failed a drug test and wasn't mentioned in the Mitchell Report. So nearly half of the baseball writers appear willing to exclude a player from the Hall of Fame based on nothing but speculation and rumor. That's the most significant (and disappointing) takeaway from this year's voting.
Tim Raines (46.1%): Fell back under 50%, but he has eight more years of eligibility. Raines' case is gathering momentum.
Roger Clemens (35.4%): Even fewer votes than last year. So the people in charge of honoring the best players in the history of baseball are just flat-out refusing to honor two of the best players in the history of baseball.
Barry Bonds (34.7%): Apparently Barry Bonds did more to "damage the integrity of the sport" than Hall of Fame racists like Ty Cobb and Cap Anson, who helped perpetuate the segregationist policies that denied Satchel Paige and Oscar Charleston and Josh Gibson the right to play major league baseball.
Lee Smith (29.9%): Relief pitchers have the easiest job in baseball, so the Hall's standard at the position should be extremely high. Smith doesn't meet that standard.
Curt Schilling (29.2%): Twice the pitcher Jack Morris was; half the votes Jack Morris got.
Edgar Martinez (25.2%): The year Frank Thomas was elected on the first ballot, Martinez's support dropped by ten percentage points. Figure that one out.
Alan Trammell (20.8%): He deserves more than this. Trammell had a higher career on-base percentage than Cal Ripken Jr., Ernie Banks, and Robin Yount; he had eight excellent offensive seasons and was the league's best position player in 1987. He should be one of the most-debated candidates on the ballot. Instead, he's just a footnote.
Mike Mussina (20.3%): This result was the one most disconnected from reality. Why will it take Mussina a decade longer to reach Cooperstown than Glavine? There's no good answer to that question.
Jeff Kent (15.2%): Like Trammell, Kent was almost completely overlooked in this crowded field. He has a solid case, but those calling him the best offensive second baseman ever are incorrectly placing him ahead of Rogers Hornsby, Jackie Robinson, Nap Lajoie, and maybe even a few others.
Fred McGriff (11.7%): Very close, but only one season with an OPS over 1.000 during this hitter-friendly era? Not going to cut it at the first base position.
Mark McGwire (11.0%): He's the only notable name from the Steroid Era to openly admit the truth about his drug use. And he's being completely ignored by a voting bloc that claims to care about morality and character. What kind of message does that send?
Larry Walker (10.2%): His ludicrous 1997 season alone is worth 10.2% of the vote. The writers aren't doing their homework on Walker.
Don Mattingly (8.2%): On this stacked ballot, even 8.2% for Mattingly is too much.
Sammy Sosa (7.2%): Among the voters, his connections to performance-enhancing drugs render his 609 career homers irrelevant. But Sosa's exile isn't nearly the same as Bonds' or Clemens'. Though his peak was incredible, his cumulative performance was borderline at best for the Hall of Fame. His career OBP (.344), OPS (.878), and OPS+ (128) weren't elite for a corner outfielder in the Steroid Era who didn't provide much value away from the plate. Larry Walker, for example, easily bests Sosa in each of those three categories (.400, .965, 141) with a similar peak and better defense and baserunning. Sosa wouldn't be a slam-dunk candidate even if he had been clean.
Rafael Palmeiro (4.4%): Despite being one of only four players with at least 3,000 hits and 500 homers, Palmeiro has now fallen off the ballot entirely by receiving less than 5% of the vote, thanks to an infamous failed drug test. But like Sosa, Palmeiro might not be worthy of the Hall just based on performance alone. He never had a significant peak -- like McGriff, he only had one season with an OPS over 1.000. He played his entire career in hitter-friendly home ballparks. And his career OPS (.885) and OPS+ (132) aren't impressive relative to his contemporaries, especially at his position. It's too easy to name other first basemen and DHs from his era who were significantly better: Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Edgar Martinez, and Mark McGwire, for instance. Palmeiro is the perfect example of why arbitrary milestones like 3,000 hits and 500 homers should not be treated like magic numbers when it comes to the Hall of Fame.
Tuesday, January 7, 2014
Cooperstown Candidates: The Best of the Rest
The Hall of Fame's voting process has numerous problems, but perhaps the most pressing one is the growing number of deserving names on an increasingly-crowded ballot. There are at least 15 candidates that warrant discussion this year, but the baseball writers are limited to voting for a maximum of just ten. Because of that restricting rule, there will inevitably be a handful of worthy players at the bottom of the ballot who won't get the support they deserve. The following four players, for instance, will all fall significantly short of election to the Hall of Fame in 2014 -- but each of them has a strong case for induction.
Tim Raines
Raines had two elite skills that made him one of the best players of the 1980s and a productive player into the 1990s. The first was his ability to get on base, which he did at a career .385 rate, better than some of his more notable peers at his position (including Carl Yastrzemski, Willie Stargell, and Jim Rice). The second was his baserunning ability: he stole at least 70 bases six different times and led the league in that category four of those times. He has the fifth-most career steals ever (808), and perhaps more impressively, he was only caught 146 times. That 84.7% success rate ranks as the second-best ever among all base-stealers with at least 300 attempts.
And though he was a historically-good baserunner, Raines was not a stereotypical slap hitter. He hit 430 career doubles, more than Willie Stargell or Mike Schmidt. With a career OPS+ of 123, his offensive production was comparable to that of Ernie Banks and Paul Molitor. From 1981 to 1987, he hit .310/.396/.448 while averaging 72 steals, 79 walks, and 103 runs scored per season. The result of all this production: a career worth almost 70 Wins Above Replacement. The only left fielders with significantly more WAR than Tim Raines are Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Rickey Henderson, and Carl Yastrzemski.
Perhaps the best way to visualize the value of Raines' career is a straight-up comparison to another corner outfielder who was elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot: Tony Gwynn. Unlike Raines, Gwynn earned glory with a .338 batting average, eight batting titles, and over 3,000 hits. But their total production is eerily similar. Gwynn had a career .388 OBP and reached base 3,955 times; Raines had a .385 OBP and reached base 3,977 times in a similar number of games. Gwynn had a seemingly large edge in total bases, but that statistic does not include walks, hit by pitches, or net stolen bases. If you factor in those numbers, Raines actually gained more bases in his career (5,805) than Gwynn (5,267).
Raines is the second-best leadoff hitter of all time and one of the best left fielders and base-stealers ever. He can be reasonably compared to Tony Gwynn, a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But only half of the BBWAA electorate voted for him last year. That needs to change.
Edgar Martinez
There are only 18 players in baseball history with a career batting average over .300, career on-base percentage over .400, and career slugging percentage over .500 (in a minimum of 8,000 plate appearances). Edgar Martinez is one of them, thanks to his .312/.418/.515 line. Additionally: among all hitters in baseball history with at least 2,000 games played, Edgar Martinez has the 12th-best on-base percentage. Of the 11 players with a higher OBP, nine are already in the Hall of Fame and the other two (Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas) should be headed there. Martinez ranks ahead of hitters like Stan Musial, Mel Ott, Manny Ramirez, and Albert Pujols in this category.
He was also one of the best hitters in baseball for over a decade. Between 1990 and 2003, the only players who got on base at a higher rate than Martinez were Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas. He had eleven seasons with an OBP over .400, leading the league in that category three times. His career OPS of .933 is tied for the 33rd-best mark ever, higher than Hank Aaron's and Frank Robinson's. His career OPS+ of 147 is equal to Mike Schmidt's and Willie McCovey's. Martinez was indisputably one of the best hitters of his era and one of the 30 or 40 best hitters of all time.
Yet support for his Hall of Fame candidacy hasn't budged upwards since his debut on the ballot four years ago. The reason is both singular and obvious: he was a designated hitter. He provided no defensive (or baserunning) value, and was therefore a "one-dimensional" player. While this is a valid counter-argument, it's just not enough to keep Martinez out of the Hall. First of all: his "one-dimensional" career still produced 68 Wins Above Replacement, roughly the same value provided by Eddie Murray and Ernie Banks. Second: Paul Molitor is already in the Hall despite having spent almost half of his career at DH, and Frank Thomas is about to get in despite having spent over half of his career at DH; those precedents should help Martinez's case. And third: the Hall has already inducted five relief pitchers, which are even more specialized and "one-dimensional" than designated hitters. A hitter as good as Martinez just belongs in the Hall, regardless of what position he did or didn't play.
Larry Walker
Like Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker is one of the 18 members of the career .300/.400/.500 club. The proud owner of a .313/.400/.565 batting line, Walker also owns the 16th-best OPS of all time, just a shade behind Frank Thomas and Stan Musial. He has the 11th-most WAR among all right fielders and the top ten are all in the Hall of Fame. He was a complete all-around player with 230 career stolen bases at a 75% success rate, seven Gold Gloves in right field, and an elite throwing arm. During his extended peak between 1994 and 2004, his OPS was 1.036 and he won three batting titles. In 1997, he earned the MVP award by hitting a ridiculous .366/.452/.720 with 49 homers, 33 steals, 130 RBIs, 143 runs scored, 409 total bases, and a league-leading 9.8 WAR. Despite all these remarkable achievements, he is unlikely to ever make the Hall of Fame.
Walker's candidacy -- and entire career -- is compromised in the eyes of some because he spent the heart of his playing days in mile-high Coors Field before the humidor was installed. Like most other Colorado Rockies of the era, Walker's numbers were therefore inflated by the hyper-friendly offensive environment in which he played. Roughly 31% of his career plate appearances came at Coors, and his cumulative numbers there look like they belong in a video game: a .381 batting average, .462 on-base percentage, and .710 slugging percentage. That's Babe Ruth with a higher batting average. Because those numbers look so utterly cartoonish, many Hall voters can't take Walker's case seriously.But that's not really fair, for a number of reasons:
1. Walker's career numbers away from Coors are still very good (.282/.372/.501, equivalent to or better than the overall numbers of right fielders like Reggie Jackson and Al Kaline).
2. Walker had seasons in which his stats away from Coors were just as good as his home stats (in his 1997 MVP campaign, for example, his home OPS was 1.169 and his road OPS was 1.176).
3. Walker played two full seasons in Coors after the humidor was installed, and his numbers there were still elite even after the change: a 1.124 home OPS in 2002 and a 1.021 home OPS in 2003.
4. Walker's context-neutral statistics, which adjust for the inflation caused by Coors, are still excellent. His 141 OPS+ is in the same neighborhood as Vladimir Guerrero (140) and Reggie Jackson (139). Baseball Reference's neutralized batting line for Walker (putting his numbers into the context of an average offensive environment) is .294/.378/.530. Still Hall of Fame numbers, especially for a five-tool right fielder.
5. Perhaps most importantly, the Hall has never used home-road splits as an excuse to keep players out. Hitters like Jim Rice, Carl Yastrzemski, Billy Williams, and Chuck Klein all benefited from their friendly home ballparks, but all have plaques in Cooperstown. Excluding Walker from Cooperstown because of Coors Field would be inconsistent. He should be in.
Mark McGwire
Only nine players in baseball history have a higher career OPS (.982) than Mark McGwire. Only ten players have a higher career OPS+ (163). Only seven have a higher career slugging percentage (.588). Only nine hit more home runs (583). And no one has ever hit home runs at a higher rate (one per 10.6 at-bats). It's easy to marginalize McGwire's career because he has admitted using performance-enhancing drugs, and he may be in risk of falling off the ballot this year entirely. But his achievements cannot be overlooked.
As a 23-year-old rookie in 1987, he led the league in home runs (49) and slugging percentage (.618) along with a .987 OPS. From 1988 to 1991, he only hit .233 but still managed to be valuable by averaging 32 homers and 90 walks per season. In 1992, he led the league in slugging percentage and OPS+, but two injury-plagued years followed. Then, from 1995 to 2000, he was unstoppable. His cumulative line across those six seasons was .289/.442/.706 with a 192 OPS+ and an average of 53 homers and 113 walks per season. He broke Roger Maris' single-season record for home runs, with 70; he also hit 65, and 58, and 52. Then he abruptly fell off a cliff in 2001, and retired. The career was short -- not even 2,000 games or 8,000 plate appearances. However, he achieved a degree of offensive dominance that has hardly ever been matched in the history of the sport. He will never be in the Hall of Fame, but like Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, and Larry Walker, his on-the-field record suggests he belongs regardless of whether or not the baseball writers actually put him there.
Tim Raines
Raines had two elite skills that made him one of the best players of the 1980s and a productive player into the 1990s. The first was his ability to get on base, which he did at a career .385 rate, better than some of his more notable peers at his position (including Carl Yastrzemski, Willie Stargell, and Jim Rice). The second was his baserunning ability: he stole at least 70 bases six different times and led the league in that category four of those times. He has the fifth-most career steals ever (808), and perhaps more impressively, he was only caught 146 times. That 84.7% success rate ranks as the second-best ever among all base-stealers with at least 300 attempts.
And though he was a historically-good baserunner, Raines was not a stereotypical slap hitter. He hit 430 career doubles, more than Willie Stargell or Mike Schmidt. With a career OPS+ of 123, his offensive production was comparable to that of Ernie Banks and Paul Molitor. From 1981 to 1987, he hit .310/.396/.448 while averaging 72 steals, 79 walks, and 103 runs scored per season. The result of all this production: a career worth almost 70 Wins Above Replacement. The only left fielders with significantly more WAR than Tim Raines are Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Rickey Henderson, and Carl Yastrzemski.
Perhaps the best way to visualize the value of Raines' career is a straight-up comparison to another corner outfielder who was elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot: Tony Gwynn. Unlike Raines, Gwynn earned glory with a .338 batting average, eight batting titles, and over 3,000 hits. But their total production is eerily similar. Gwynn had a career .388 OBP and reached base 3,955 times; Raines had a .385 OBP and reached base 3,977 times in a similar number of games. Gwynn had a seemingly large edge in total bases, but that statistic does not include walks, hit by pitches, or net stolen bases. If you factor in those numbers, Raines actually gained more bases in his career (5,805) than Gwynn (5,267).
Raines is the second-best leadoff hitter of all time and one of the best left fielders and base-stealers ever. He can be reasonably compared to Tony Gwynn, a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But only half of the BBWAA electorate voted for him last year. That needs to change.
Edgar Martinez
There are only 18 players in baseball history with a career batting average over .300, career on-base percentage over .400, and career slugging percentage over .500 (in a minimum of 8,000 plate appearances). Edgar Martinez is one of them, thanks to his .312/.418/.515 line. Additionally: among all hitters in baseball history with at least 2,000 games played, Edgar Martinez has the 12th-best on-base percentage. Of the 11 players with a higher OBP, nine are already in the Hall of Fame and the other two (Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas) should be headed there. Martinez ranks ahead of hitters like Stan Musial, Mel Ott, Manny Ramirez, and Albert Pujols in this category.
He was also one of the best hitters in baseball for over a decade. Between 1990 and 2003, the only players who got on base at a higher rate than Martinez were Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas. He had eleven seasons with an OBP over .400, leading the league in that category three times. His career OPS of .933 is tied for the 33rd-best mark ever, higher than Hank Aaron's and Frank Robinson's. His career OPS+ of 147 is equal to Mike Schmidt's and Willie McCovey's. Martinez was indisputably one of the best hitters of his era and one of the 30 or 40 best hitters of all time.
Yet support for his Hall of Fame candidacy hasn't budged upwards since his debut on the ballot four years ago. The reason is both singular and obvious: he was a designated hitter. He provided no defensive (or baserunning) value, and was therefore a "one-dimensional" player. While this is a valid counter-argument, it's just not enough to keep Martinez out of the Hall. First of all: his "one-dimensional" career still produced 68 Wins Above Replacement, roughly the same value provided by Eddie Murray and Ernie Banks. Second: Paul Molitor is already in the Hall despite having spent almost half of his career at DH, and Frank Thomas is about to get in despite having spent over half of his career at DH; those precedents should help Martinez's case. And third: the Hall has already inducted five relief pitchers, which are even more specialized and "one-dimensional" than designated hitters. A hitter as good as Martinez just belongs in the Hall, regardless of what position he did or didn't play.
Larry Walker
Like Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker is one of the 18 members of the career .300/.400/.500 club. The proud owner of a .313/.400/.565 batting line, Walker also owns the 16th-best OPS of all time, just a shade behind Frank Thomas and Stan Musial. He has the 11th-most WAR among all right fielders and the top ten are all in the Hall of Fame. He was a complete all-around player with 230 career stolen bases at a 75% success rate, seven Gold Gloves in right field, and an elite throwing arm. During his extended peak between 1994 and 2004, his OPS was 1.036 and he won three batting titles. In 1997, he earned the MVP award by hitting a ridiculous .366/.452/.720 with 49 homers, 33 steals, 130 RBIs, 143 runs scored, 409 total bases, and a league-leading 9.8 WAR. Despite all these remarkable achievements, he is unlikely to ever make the Hall of Fame.
Walker's candidacy -- and entire career -- is compromised in the eyes of some because he spent the heart of his playing days in mile-high Coors Field before the humidor was installed. Like most other Colorado Rockies of the era, Walker's numbers were therefore inflated by the hyper-friendly offensive environment in which he played. Roughly 31% of his career plate appearances came at Coors, and his cumulative numbers there look like they belong in a video game: a .381 batting average, .462 on-base percentage, and .710 slugging percentage. That's Babe Ruth with a higher batting average. Because those numbers look so utterly cartoonish, many Hall voters can't take Walker's case seriously.But that's not really fair, for a number of reasons:
1. Walker's career numbers away from Coors are still very good (.282/.372/.501, equivalent to or better than the overall numbers of right fielders like Reggie Jackson and Al Kaline).
2. Walker had seasons in which his stats away from Coors were just as good as his home stats (in his 1997 MVP campaign, for example, his home OPS was 1.169 and his road OPS was 1.176).
3. Walker played two full seasons in Coors after the humidor was installed, and his numbers there were still elite even after the change: a 1.124 home OPS in 2002 and a 1.021 home OPS in 2003.
4. Walker's context-neutral statistics, which adjust for the inflation caused by Coors, are still excellent. His 141 OPS+ is in the same neighborhood as Vladimir Guerrero (140) and Reggie Jackson (139). Baseball Reference's neutralized batting line for Walker (putting his numbers into the context of an average offensive environment) is .294/.378/.530. Still Hall of Fame numbers, especially for a five-tool right fielder.
5. Perhaps most importantly, the Hall has never used home-road splits as an excuse to keep players out. Hitters like Jim Rice, Carl Yastrzemski, Billy Williams, and Chuck Klein all benefited from their friendly home ballparks, but all have plaques in Cooperstown. Excluding Walker from Cooperstown because of Coors Field would be inconsistent. He should be in.
Mark McGwire
Only nine players in baseball history have a higher career OPS (.982) than Mark McGwire. Only ten players have a higher career OPS+ (163). Only seven have a higher career slugging percentage (.588). Only nine hit more home runs (583). And no one has ever hit home runs at a higher rate (one per 10.6 at-bats). It's easy to marginalize McGwire's career because he has admitted using performance-enhancing drugs, and he may be in risk of falling off the ballot this year entirely. But his achievements cannot be overlooked.
As a 23-year-old rookie in 1987, he led the league in home runs (49) and slugging percentage (.618) along with a .987 OPS. From 1988 to 1991, he only hit .233 but still managed to be valuable by averaging 32 homers and 90 walks per season. In 1992, he led the league in slugging percentage and OPS+, but two injury-plagued years followed. Then, from 1995 to 2000, he was unstoppable. His cumulative line across those six seasons was .289/.442/.706 with a 192 OPS+ and an average of 53 homers and 113 walks per season. He broke Roger Maris' single-season record for home runs, with 70; he also hit 65, and 58, and 52. Then he abruptly fell off a cliff in 2001, and retired. The career was short -- not even 2,000 games or 8,000 plate appearances. However, he achieved a degree of offensive dominance that has hardly ever been matched in the history of the sport. He will never be in the Hall of Fame, but like Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, and Larry Walker, his on-the-field record suggests he belongs regardless of whether or not the baseball writers actually put him there.
Thursday, January 2, 2014
Cooperstown Candidates: Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza
Compared to some of the other hitters on the Hall of Fame ballot, Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza don't exactly have overwhelming offensive numbers. The two of them combined for exactly zero MVP awards, zero batting crowns, and zero home run titles. Neither of them led their league in WAR in any season. A whopping 17 players on this ballot have a higher career OPS than Biggio, and 15 have a higher career WAR than Piazza. And yet you'd still be hard-pressed to find a reason to keep either of them out of the Hall of Fame.
Biggio's offense isn't impressive in a vacuum: a career .281/.363/.433 hitter with an OPS just below .800. But for a player who spent almost 2,000 games at second base (plus another 800 combined at catcher and the outfield), that production was elite. His .796 OPS and 112 OPS+ are comparable to the career marks of Ryne Sandberg (.795 and 114) and Roberto Alomar (.814 and 116), both of whom were recently inducted into the Hall as second basemen. Biggio also played more games than any other second baseman in history, an impressive feat considering that position's notoriously detrimental impact on career length.
It was this longevity that helped Biggio reach the fabled 3,000-hit milestone, a number attained by only three other second basemen ever (and just 28 players total). And it's not as though he reached that mark by beating out singles for 20 years. Biggio ranks 32nd all-time in career extra-base hits with 1,014, the most by any second baseman. Comparatively, that's only 27 fewer than Pete Rose, who had the benefit of 1,200 additional hits and 3,000 additional plate appearances. Biggio's career home run total of 291 isn't mind-boggling, but it's the third-highest home run total among all second basemen. Most notably of all, he ranks fifth all-time in career doubles among all players ever, trailing only Tris Speaker, Pete Rose, Stan Musial, and Ty Cobb in that category. For a middle infielder who derived much of his value from longevity, he produced excellent power numbers.
Along with extra-base hits, Biggio offered a wide array of skills that have traditionally been overlooked. He scored 1,844 career runs, most among all second basemen and the 15th-highest total among all players ever. He stole 414 bases at a solid 77% success rate. He was bizarrely good at avoiding double plays; once, in 1997, he came to the plate 744 times and didn't ground into a single one. And he perfected the art of reaching base by the hit-by-pitch -- he accumulated the second-most HBPs ever, and led the league in that category five times.
It's misleading to suggest that Biggio was merely a good-but-never-elite player whose performance never rose to Hall of Fame standards. Across the nine seasons between 1991 and 1999, he hit .299/.391/.451 and was one of the five most valuable players in baseball. In both 1997 and 1998, he posted an OPS over .900, stole at least 47 bases, hit at least 20 homers, and was a top-five MVP candidate. He played key defensive positions for two decades and accumulated over 3,000 hits, a third of which went for extra bases. As one of the best up-the-middle players of the last two decades, Craig Biggio is a fairly obvious selection for the Hall of Fame.
And using that same logic, so is Mike Piazza. Like Biggio, Piazza was a valuable player because of the excellent offense he produced at a position typically occupied by poor hitters (in this case, catcher). But unlike Biggio, Piazza is actually the best offensive player that his position has ever seen. No catcher can match his career home run total of 427, or his .545 slugging percentage, or his .922 OPS, or his 143 OPS+. Those are all records among catchers, all held by Piazza, most by a fairly wide margin. His 1997 season ranks as the single best offensive campaign any catcher has ever had. His career line of .308/.377/.545 would make him elite at any position; at catcher, it makes him a god.
At his peak, Piazza was not merely the best-hitting catcher in baseball -- he was one of the league's best hitters, period. During the ten-year period from 1993 to 2002, Piazza ranked as the third-most valuable player in baseball (behind only Barry Bonds and Jeff Bagwell) because of a cumulative .322/.389/.579 line and an average of 35 homers per season. Not once during that decade did his OPS slip below .900. In 1995, he was the best offensive player in the league (he hit .346/.400/.606 with 32 homers and led the league in OPS+). The same was true in 1997 (he hit .362/.431/.638 with 40 homers and led the league in OPS+ again). He finished in the top four in MVP voting four different times, including two second-place finishes.
Piazza's candidacy is far from flawless, thanks to defensive shortcomings and a shorter career that failed to last 2,000 games. But thanks to his incredible bat, Piazza still ranks as the fifth-best catcher of all time according to WAR, in a virtual tie with Yogi Berra. He trails only Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Ivan Rodriguez, and Carlton Fisk, all of whom had the benefit of several hundred additional games. And not one of those four had a career OPS within 100 points of Piazza's. When you redefine expectations for offense at your position, you should be a Hall of Famer. Piazza's Cooperstown credentials should not be in question.
Both Biggio and Piazza were among the best players in the league during their era and among the best players at their positions historically. That is literally the definition of a Hall of Famer. Yet somehow, neither one was elected to the Hall of Fame last year. That's a wrong that needs to be corrected in 2014. Second basemen aren't supposed to thrive as long as Biggio did. Catchers aren't supposed to hit as well as Piazza did. Greatness of that caliber deserves to be recognized, and better late than never.
My Ballot:
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Greg Maddux
4. Jeff Bagwell
5. Frank Thomas
6. Mike Mussina
7. Tom Glavine
8. Curt Schilling
9. Mike Piazza
10. Craig Biggio
Biggio's offense isn't impressive in a vacuum: a career .281/.363/.433 hitter with an OPS just below .800. But for a player who spent almost 2,000 games at second base (plus another 800 combined at catcher and the outfield), that production was elite. His .796 OPS and 112 OPS+ are comparable to the career marks of Ryne Sandberg (.795 and 114) and Roberto Alomar (.814 and 116), both of whom were recently inducted into the Hall as second basemen. Biggio also played more games than any other second baseman in history, an impressive feat considering that position's notoriously detrimental impact on career length.
It was this longevity that helped Biggio reach the fabled 3,000-hit milestone, a number attained by only three other second basemen ever (and just 28 players total). And it's not as though he reached that mark by beating out singles for 20 years. Biggio ranks 32nd all-time in career extra-base hits with 1,014, the most by any second baseman. Comparatively, that's only 27 fewer than Pete Rose, who had the benefit of 1,200 additional hits and 3,000 additional plate appearances. Biggio's career home run total of 291 isn't mind-boggling, but it's the third-highest home run total among all second basemen. Most notably of all, he ranks fifth all-time in career doubles among all players ever, trailing only Tris Speaker, Pete Rose, Stan Musial, and Ty Cobb in that category. For a middle infielder who derived much of his value from longevity, he produced excellent power numbers.
Along with extra-base hits, Biggio offered a wide array of skills that have traditionally been overlooked. He scored 1,844 career runs, most among all second basemen and the 15th-highest total among all players ever. He stole 414 bases at a solid 77% success rate. He was bizarrely good at avoiding double plays; once, in 1997, he came to the plate 744 times and didn't ground into a single one. And he perfected the art of reaching base by the hit-by-pitch -- he accumulated the second-most HBPs ever, and led the league in that category five times.
It's misleading to suggest that Biggio was merely a good-but-never-elite player whose performance never rose to Hall of Fame standards. Across the nine seasons between 1991 and 1999, he hit .299/.391/.451 and was one of the five most valuable players in baseball. In both 1997 and 1998, he posted an OPS over .900, stole at least 47 bases, hit at least 20 homers, and was a top-five MVP candidate. He played key defensive positions for two decades and accumulated over 3,000 hits, a third of which went for extra bases. As one of the best up-the-middle players of the last two decades, Craig Biggio is a fairly obvious selection for the Hall of Fame.
And using that same logic, so is Mike Piazza. Like Biggio, Piazza was a valuable player because of the excellent offense he produced at a position typically occupied by poor hitters (in this case, catcher). But unlike Biggio, Piazza is actually the best offensive player that his position has ever seen. No catcher can match his career home run total of 427, or his .545 slugging percentage, or his .922 OPS, or his 143 OPS+. Those are all records among catchers, all held by Piazza, most by a fairly wide margin. His 1997 season ranks as the single best offensive campaign any catcher has ever had. His career line of .308/.377/.545 would make him elite at any position; at catcher, it makes him a god.
At his peak, Piazza was not merely the best-hitting catcher in baseball -- he was one of the league's best hitters, period. During the ten-year period from 1993 to 2002, Piazza ranked as the third-most valuable player in baseball (behind only Barry Bonds and Jeff Bagwell) because of a cumulative .322/.389/.579 line and an average of 35 homers per season. Not once during that decade did his OPS slip below .900. In 1995, he was the best offensive player in the league (he hit .346/.400/.606 with 32 homers and led the league in OPS+). The same was true in 1997 (he hit .362/.431/.638 with 40 homers and led the league in OPS+ again). He finished in the top four in MVP voting four different times, including two second-place finishes.
Piazza's candidacy is far from flawless, thanks to defensive shortcomings and a shorter career that failed to last 2,000 games. But thanks to his incredible bat, Piazza still ranks as the fifth-best catcher of all time according to WAR, in a virtual tie with Yogi Berra. He trails only Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Ivan Rodriguez, and Carlton Fisk, all of whom had the benefit of several hundred additional games. And not one of those four had a career OPS within 100 points of Piazza's. When you redefine expectations for offense at your position, you should be a Hall of Famer. Piazza's Cooperstown credentials should not be in question.
Both Biggio and Piazza were among the best players in the league during their era and among the best players at their positions historically. That is literally the definition of a Hall of Famer. Yet somehow, neither one was elected to the Hall of Fame last year. That's a wrong that needs to be corrected in 2014. Second basemen aren't supposed to thrive as long as Biggio did. Catchers aren't supposed to hit as well as Piazza did. Greatness of that caliber deserves to be recognized, and better late than never.
My Ballot:
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Greg Maddux
4. Jeff Bagwell
5. Frank Thomas
6. Mike Mussina
7. Tom Glavine
8. Curt Schilling
9. Mike Piazza
10. Craig Biggio
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Cooperstown Candidate: Curt Schilling
Curt Schilling is in serious danger of being lost in the shuffle on an increasingly-crowded Hall of Fame ballot. After a disappointing debut last year (he was supported by fewer than 40% of the writers), he now has to contend for votes with newcomers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Mike Mussina, with Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz all set to join the field next year, and Roger Clemens still hanging around. Schilling's low career win total (216) may force him to wait for years at the back of this growing queue for induction. But even among this distinguished company, he still clearly stands out as a pitcher worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown.
What Schilling lacked in quantity (only 216 wins and 3,261 innings), he made up for in quality. Few Hall of Famers can match the efficiency of his production. His career WHIP of 1.14 ranks 47th all-time, ahead of all the other greats on this year's ballot (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Mussina). His strikeout rate of 8.6 per nine innings ranks as the 12th-best mark among all non-active pitchers. And because he walked fewer than two batters per nine innings for his career, he retired with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in modern baseball history (4.38). This ability to maximize strikeouts while limiting baserunners helped Schilling post a career 3.46 ERA and 127 ERA+ (both of which are better than the career marks of Glavine and Mussina) across 20 seasons that spanned the entirety of the Steroid Era.
Schilling also enjoyed one of the most impressive peaks of any pitcher in recent memory. During the full decade between 1995 and 2004, he posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in about 212 innings per season. He threw 64 complete games during this stretch, the most in baseball, and struck out more than 300 hitters three times, a feat equaled only by Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, and Sandy Koufax. He didn't win a Cy Young but finished as the runner-up in the voting three times, losing to teammate Randy Johnson (twice) and Johan Santana. These ten seasons were worth a total of about 60 Wins Above Replacement, roughly the value of Andy Pettitte's entire 18-year career.
Schilling's stellar regular season production is augmented by his work in the postseason, which is almost unmatched in baseball history. He made a total of 19 playoff starts (133.1 innings) and allowed two runs or fewer in 16 of them (with a 2.33 ERA overall). Five times, Schilling started a postseason elimination game; his ERA in those starts was 1.37 and his team won all five of them. That includes his outing in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, as well as his famous "bloody sock" performance in Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS. Schilling won three titles, earned a World Series MVP award, and saw virtually all of his numbers improve drastically in the playoffs relative to the regular season. If anyone's Hall of Fame candidacy deserves a boost from glory won in October, it's Schilling.
Ultimately, the only way to nitpick his career is to point out that it wasn't as good as Greg Maddux's or Roger Clemens'. But that's not exactly fair, because nobody besides Maddux and Clemens can meet that impossible standard. Schilling comfortably belongs to the elite tier occupied by the likes of Mike Mussina and Tom Glavine -- not historically dominant, yet still markedly better than the average Hall of Famer. Schilling accumulated 80 WAR in his career, a total achieved by only 20 pitchers in the Hall of Fame. He had a decade-long run of excellence at the height of the most hitter-friendly era in history. He is one of only 16 pitchers with at least 3,000 career strikeouts. And few players can claim to match his impact on the outcomes of multiple playoff series and championships. If that isn't a Hall of Fame career, then really, what is?
My Ballot So Far:
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Greg Maddux
4. Jeff Bagwell
5. Frank Thomas
6. Mike Mussina
7. Tom Glavine
8. Curt Schilling
What Schilling lacked in quantity (only 216 wins and 3,261 innings), he made up for in quality. Few Hall of Famers can match the efficiency of his production. His career WHIP of 1.14 ranks 47th all-time, ahead of all the other greats on this year's ballot (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Mussina). His strikeout rate of 8.6 per nine innings ranks as the 12th-best mark among all non-active pitchers. And because he walked fewer than two batters per nine innings for his career, he retired with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in modern baseball history (4.38). This ability to maximize strikeouts while limiting baserunners helped Schilling post a career 3.46 ERA and 127 ERA+ (both of which are better than the career marks of Glavine and Mussina) across 20 seasons that spanned the entirety of the Steroid Era.
Schilling also enjoyed one of the most impressive peaks of any pitcher in recent memory. During the full decade between 1995 and 2004, he posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in about 212 innings per season. He threw 64 complete games during this stretch, the most in baseball, and struck out more than 300 hitters three times, a feat equaled only by Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, and Sandy Koufax. He didn't win a Cy Young but finished as the runner-up in the voting three times, losing to teammate Randy Johnson (twice) and Johan Santana. These ten seasons were worth a total of about 60 Wins Above Replacement, roughly the value of Andy Pettitte's entire 18-year career.
Schilling's stellar regular season production is augmented by his work in the postseason, which is almost unmatched in baseball history. He made a total of 19 playoff starts (133.1 innings) and allowed two runs or fewer in 16 of them (with a 2.33 ERA overall). Five times, Schilling started a postseason elimination game; his ERA in those starts was 1.37 and his team won all five of them. That includes his outing in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, as well as his famous "bloody sock" performance in Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS. Schilling won three titles, earned a World Series MVP award, and saw virtually all of his numbers improve drastically in the playoffs relative to the regular season. If anyone's Hall of Fame candidacy deserves a boost from glory won in October, it's Schilling.
Ultimately, the only way to nitpick his career is to point out that it wasn't as good as Greg Maddux's or Roger Clemens'. But that's not exactly fair, because nobody besides Maddux and Clemens can meet that impossible standard. Schilling comfortably belongs to the elite tier occupied by the likes of Mike Mussina and Tom Glavine -- not historically dominant, yet still markedly better than the average Hall of Famer. Schilling accumulated 80 WAR in his career, a total achieved by only 20 pitchers in the Hall of Fame. He had a decade-long run of excellence at the height of the most hitter-friendly era in history. He is one of only 16 pitchers with at least 3,000 career strikeouts. And few players can claim to match his impact on the outcomes of multiple playoff series and championships. If that isn't a Hall of Fame career, then really, what is?
My Ballot So Far:
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Greg Maddux
4. Jeff Bagwell
5. Frank Thomas
6. Mike Mussina
7. Tom Glavine
8. Curt Schilling
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